Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 19, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured Vozdvyzhenka, Vremivka, and Neskuchne in the Donetsk People's Republic, significantly hindering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. They also report the destruction of a command post of a Ukrainian mechanized brigade. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Novosergievka. They are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They are also attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions, confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory, and new technology being employed. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of using KAB bombs in the Sumy region. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 58 out of 80 drones were shot down, with 21 drones classified as "lost". The downed drones caused damage in Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy regions. A new threat has emerged with reports of a missile flying through the Sumy region and towards Poltava. An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia region. Air raid alerts have also been declared in Kyiv. The alert has been lifted, and the threat of ballistic missiles has been removed.

US President-elect Donald Trump's reported intention to visit China could have far-reaching implications for the conflict in Ukraine. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked. There are reports that TikTok may be allowed to operate in Russia again.

The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. An agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages has come into effect. Israel is to release 90 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for three Israeli hostages. A first exchange is scheduled for today at 4 PM local time. Hamas demands that Israeli aviation leave the airspace of Gaza. IDF forces are gradually leaving the territory of the Palestinian enclave. The agreement includes a 42-day ceasefire, the withdrawal of IDF troops from densely populated areas along the border of Gaza, the exchange of 33 Israeli hostages for 1110 Palestinian prisoners, the unblocking of the border between Egypt and Gaza, the daily delivery of 600 trucks with humanitarian aid, and the opening of the Rafah checkpoint for the movement of civilians after the release of all Israeli women and children. Israel is also obligated to assist in the restoration of critical infrastructure. The agreement is considered fragile, and there are concerns that Israel may find a reason to resume hostilities.

The humanitarian situation in Kursk region is difficult. In Russkoye Porechnoye, the Investigative Committee of Russia claims that the bodies of 7 civilians killed by Ukrainian forces have been found.

New Developments:

• The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrskyi, commented on the transfer of personnel from the Air Force to the infantry, acknowledging the need for specialists but also the need to replenish the ranks of mechanized brigades.
• President Zelensky signed a decree enacting NSDC sanctions against propagandists, individuals who have sided with the enemy, and those aiding Russia in the war. New sanctions are being prepared.
• Search and rescue teams are accompanying helicopter crews operating in the border areas of Kursk region.
• A Ukrainian soldier with the call sign "Archi" from the 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade in Kharkiv shared his experience of successfully using an AGS automatic grenade launcher against Russian forces.
• Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows specialists of a search and rescue team accompanying helicopter crews in the border areas of the Kursk region.
• A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
• A message from "Воин DV" reports that Russian forces are continuing their offensive to liberate Velyka Novosilka, having established positions on the northeastern and southeastern parts of the city.
• Photos from "Оперативний ЗСУ" show the detention of a lawyer accused of recruiting agents for Russian intelligence.
• A video from "ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦" shows the daily lives of Ukrainian soldiers, including food preparation and drone operations.
• A message from "Дневник Десантника" report on the situation in the Kupyansk direction, including the use of drones to target enemy positions and the destruction of a Ukrainian counterattack near Boguslavka.
• Video evidence from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces, including four dozen "motorpikes" who launched an assault north of Vesele. This indicates another massive activation of Russian forces near Siversk, but the attack was unsuccessful due to the work of the Defense Forces.
• An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
• Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone targeting the vehicle as Ukrainian troops attempt to board it, resulting in a direct hit and likely destruction of the vehicle. This highlights the continued use of drones for precision strikes against enemy equipment and the vulnerability of troops during movement.
• Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. This highlights the ongoing fighting in the region and the use of drones for close air support.
• Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The video claims that the operation is being carried out by the 30th "Moscow" regiment on the Sudzhan direction. This highlights the use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting in support of offensive operations.
• Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region.
• "Mediazona" confirmed the deaths of at least three lieutenant colonels in a missile strike on Lgov, Kursk region, on December 30th. The strike targeted the location of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division. Among the dead are the chief of communications of the 76th Airborne Division Valery Tereshchenko, the commander of the 656th separate engineering battalion Pavel Maletsky, and the chief of the chemical, radiation, and biological protection service of the division Alexei Seliverstov. Major Ali Tsurov, who served as deputy chief of staff, was also killed in the strike.
• A report from the Russian Ministry of Defense states that Russian forces repelled an attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to invade Russian territory in the Kursk region. The Russian Armed Forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory of the Kursk region. The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bondarevka, Guyevo, Lebedevka, Malaya Loknya, Makhnovka, Nikolayevo-Daryino, Nikolsky, Novaya Sorochina, Sverdlikovo, and Sudzha. Two enemy counter-attacks were repelled. Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, and artillery strikes engaged AFU manpower and hardware near Viktorovka, Vladimirovka, Zaoleshenka, Kositsa, Kruglenkoye, Kubatkin, Kurilovka, Lebedevka, Loknya, Martynovka, Melovoy, Oleshnya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Yuzhny as well as Basovka, Belovody, Veselovka, Zhuravka, and Yunakovka in Sumy region. Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar. Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle. The operation to neutralise the AFU units is in progress.
• Specialists of the search and rescue team accompany the crews of helicopters operating in the border areas of the Kursk region.
• The oil depot in Liski, Voronezh Oblast, continues to burn for the fourth day.
• Scammers are reportedly stealing Telegram accounts in Russia using QR codes posted in apartment building entrances.
• An air raid alert has been declared in Kyiv.
• A threat of ballistic missiles from the east has been reported.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons from the east.
• Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
• Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
• Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
• Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
• Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
• Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
• Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
• A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
• Video evidence shows a group of Russian soldiers being targeted by a Ukrainian drone. The caption warns civilians not to approach certain areas.
• A video from the "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" Telegram channel purports to show a friendly interaction between "Caucasian brothers" and a Russian in the Orel region of Russia. The caption suggests that this is positive while Russians are fighting elsewhere.
• The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration has declared an air raid alert.
• The Iranian President stated that the US seeks unipolarity and control over the entire world, which does not suit Russia and Iran. He also stated that it is unimaginable for a country like Russia to be in a situation where others make decisions for it.
• The oil depot in Liski continues to burn for the fourth day.
• A video from the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel shows the oil depot in Liski continuing to burn for the fourth day.
• A message from "Новости Москвы" reports that scammers are stealing Telegram accounts using QR codes posted in apartment building entrances.
• An air raid alert has been declared in Kyiv due to the threat of ballistic missiles.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons from the east.
• A video from the "WarGonzo" Telegram channel discusses various topics, including fires in the US, Ukrainian intelligence paying Russians, and HIMARS strikes on a grocery store. The channel also mentions the interception of Russian ballistic missiles by Patriot systems.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weapons from the east.
• The threat of ballistic weapons from the east has been reported.
• Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
• Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing.
• The threat of using ballistic weapons from the east has been canceled.
• The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, discussed the situation on the front and the needs of the Armed Forces with the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces, General Jenny Carignan.
• The Iranian President did not rule out the possibility of full military cooperation with Russia in the future.
• Hamas handed over three hostages to representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross.
• The "Rybar" Telegram channel reports on the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, outlining the conditions and potential challenges.
• Slovak Prime Minister Fico intends to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine due to Zelensky's refusal to discuss the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, according to the Slovak portal Pravda.
• A video from the "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces using drones to clear an area of Russian soldiers.
• A modular house for displaced persons in Lviv caught fire. The fire covered the first and second floors. Firefighters extinguished the fire, and no one was injured.
• The "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" Telegram channel reports that Norwegians have deployed their NASAMS air defense systems in Rzeszów, Poland, a key strategic hub for weapons and other supplies for Ukraine. The channel suggests that this is part of a broader effort to move troops closer to Russia under the guise of the "Russian threat."
• The "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" Telegram channel reports on the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, suggesting that it was made to benefit Trump's reputation as a peacemaker. The channel also suggests that Israel may find a reason to resume hostilities after Trump's inauguration.
• A new guided aviation missile is reported to be heading towards Lebedyn.
• A new guided aviation missile is reported to be heading towards Poltava.
• Cosmonaut Wagner took a photo of Tehran from the ISS.
• Myrhorod is urged to remain in shelters.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine welcomed the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces, General Jenny Carignan, to Ukraine. They discussed the situation on the front, the security situation in Ukraine, and the needs of the Armed Forces in terms of weapons and military equipment. They also discussed increasing the capabilities of Ukrainian air and missile defense, as well as Canada's contributions to the development of unmanned systems, air forces, armored vehicles, and information technology. The effectiveness of the Canadian military training mission UNIFIER was also noted.
• The air raid alert has been canceled.
• The threat of using ballistic weapons has been canceled.
• The threat of using ballistic weapons has been canceled.
• Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi discussed the situation on the front and the needs of the Armed Forces with his Canadian counterpart.
• A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area.
• TV presenter Tigran Keosayan is reportedly in a coma after experiencing clinical death, according to his wife Margarita Simonyan.
• Starting this year, residents of the DPR must pay a transport tax. The administration of the head of the republic has provided a list of exemptions.
• Norwegians are reportedly deploying NASAMS air defense systems in Rzeszow, Poland, a key hub for weapons and supplies to Ukraine.
• A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect in the Gaza Strip.

Changes from Previous Situation

• New Missile Threat: Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
• Air Raid Alert Lifted: The air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted.
• Threat of Ballistic Missiles Canceled: The threat of ballistic missiles has been canceled.
• Ceasefire in Gaza: A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has come into effect, with the first exchange of prisoners scheduled for today.
• Humanitarian Situation in Gaza: Reports of people returning to their homes in the northern Gaza Strip.
• Continued Fighting in Donetsk and Luhansk: Russian forces continue to advance in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with reports of fighting near Velyka Novosilka, Kupyansk, and Makiivka.
• Drone Warfare: Continued reports of drone attacks and drone warfare in various regions.
• New Video Evidence: New video evidence from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces near Siversk. New video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region. Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area. Video from the "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces using drones to clear an area of Russian soldiers.
• Casualties: "Mediazona" confirmed the deaths of at least three lieutenant colonels in a missile strike on Lgov, Kursk region, on December 30th.
• Diplomatic Developments: The Iranian President did not rule out the possibility of full military cooperation with Russia in the future. Slovak Prime Minister Fico intends to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi discussed the situation on the front and the needs of the Armed Forces with his Canadian counterpart.
• Technological Developments: The "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" Telegram channel reports that Norwegians have deployed their NASAMS air defense systems in Rzeszow, Poland.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: Reports of scammers stealing Telegram accounts in Russia. A video from the "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" Telegram channel purports to show a friendly interaction between "Caucasian brothers" and a Russian in the Orel region of Russia.
• Humanitarian Situation: A modular house for displaced persons in Lviv caught fire.
• New Sanctions: President Zelensky signed a decree enacting NSDC sanctions against propagandists, individuals who have sided with the enemy, and those aiding Russia in the war.
• Military Aid: The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, discussed with the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces, General Jenny Carignan, the situation on the front, the security situation in Ukraine, and the needs of the Armed Forces in terms of weapons and military equipment. They also discussed increasing the capabilities of Ukrainian air and missile defense, as well as Canada's contributions to the development of unmanned systems, air forces, armored vehicles, and information technology. The effectiveness of the Canadian military training mission UNIFIER was also noted.
• Drone Warfare: Continued reports of drone attacks and drone warfare in various regions, including a video from the "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" Telegram channel showing Ukrainian forces using drones to clear an area of Russian soldiers.
• New Video Evidence: New video evidence from the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces near Siversk. New video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Video evidence from the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region. Video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows drone pilots engaging a target in the Kursk region border area.
• Casualties: "Mediazona" confirmed the deaths of at least three lieutenant colonels in a missile strike on Lgov, Kursk region, on December 30th.
• Diplomatic Developments: The Iranian President did not rule out the possibility of full military cooperation with Russia in the future. Slovak Prime Minister Fico intends to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrskyi discussed the situation on the front and the needs of the Armed Forces with his Canadian counterpart.
• Technological Developments: The "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" Telegram channel reports that Norwegians have deployed their NASAMS air defense systems in Rzeszow, Poland.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: Reports of scammers stealing Telegram accounts in Russia. A video from the "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" Telegram channel purports to show a friendly interaction between "Caucasian brothers" and a Russian in the Orel region of Russia.
• Humanitarian Situation: A modular house for displaced persons in Lviv caught fire.
• New Sanctions: President Zelensky signed a decree enacting NSDC sanctions against propagandists, individuals who have sided with the enemy, and those aiding Russia in the war.
• Military Aid: The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrsky, discussed with the Chief of the Defense Staff of the Canadian Armed Forces, General Jenny Carignan, the situation on the front, the security situation in Ukraine, and the needs of the Armed Forces in terms of weapons and military equipment. They also discussed increasing the capabilities of Ukrainian air and missile defense, as well as Canada's contributions to the development of unmanned systems, air forces, armored vehicles, and information technology. The effectiveness of the Canadian military training mission UNIFIER was also noted.
• Kotlyne Reportedly Captured: A message from "Alex Parker Returns" claims that Kotlyne has been captured and that the encirclement of Pokrovsk continues.
• Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: Reports indicate a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, with prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid provisions. However, the situation remains fragile.
• Air raid alert canceled in Kyiv.
• Ballistic missile threat from the east canceled.
• Slovak Prime Minister threatens to veto further financial aid to Ukraine.
• Residents of the DNR are now required to pay transport tax.
• A list of exemptions for the transport tax in the DNR has been released.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of Vremivka, Neskuchne, and the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka represent significant Russian tactical victories. The intensified drone warfare, particularly the attacks deep inside Russia, demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike strategic targets. The persistent air threat across Ukraine and the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the intensity of the conflict. The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is a major geopolitical development with potential ramifications for the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations indicate a high tempo of strikes. The potential for Russian interference in German elections adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The confirmation of Ukrainian losses in Vremivka and Neskuchne, along with the acknowledgment of the crisis in Velyka Novosilka, reinforces the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The criticism of Ukrainian command in the area suggests potential issues with leadership and strategy. The new report of a drone attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region of Russia indicates that Ukraine is continuing to target industrial facilities deep inside Russia. The new reports of drone threats in multiple regions of Ukraine indicate that Russia is continuing to use drones to target Ukrainian infrastructure and military assets. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage. The new reports of drone attacks in Romania and the Smolensk region of Russia add another dimension to the conflict, highlighting the expanding geographical scope of the drone warfare. The discovery of two Russian drone crash sites in Romania is particularly significant, as it involves a NATO member state. This could potentially lead to increased tensions between Russia and NATO, and may prompt Romania to enhance its air defense capabilities. The involvement of a NATO member state also raises questions about the effectiveness of Russia's drone operations and their ability to accurately target locations within Ukraine. The drone attack in the Smolensk region, while less geopolitically significant than the Romanian incidents, still demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. This could have implications for Russia's air defense strategies and may force them to redeploy resources to protect key locations further from the front lines. The announcement of an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region and the reported movement of drones in various regions of Ukraine indicate that the drone threat remains high. Ukrainian air defenses are likely to be heavily engaged in countering these threats, and the civilian population in affected areas will need to remain vigilant. The new message about the start of the assault on Pokrovsk indicates a significant escalation in the Donetsk region. Pokrovsk is a key city, and its capture would be a major victory for Russian forces. This development suggests that the fighting in the Donetsk region is likely to intensify in the coming days and weeks. Ukrainian forces will need to reinforce their defenses in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas to prevent further Russian advances. The outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk could have a significant impact on the overall course of the war in the Donetsk region. The report from the commander of the "Azov" brigade, Denis Prokopenko, highlights critical issues with the fortification efforts on the front lines. His statement that there is a lack of "brains and skills" for proper fortification, even when resources are available, points to a deeper problem of training, organization, and possibly leadership within the Ukrainian forces. The offer to conduct training sessions based on "Azov's" own experience suggests a recognition of this gap and a willingness to share expertise. This situation could significantly impact the Ukrainian defense capabilities, especially in the Lyman and Toretsk directions where "Azov" has been operating. The lack of proper fortifications could make Ukrainian positions more vulnerable to Russian attacks and could lead to increased casualties and loss of territory. The new reports of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, while seemingly unrelated to the conflict in Ukraine, could have indirect implications. The release of hostages and the provision for humanitarian aid could potentially free up resources and attention that were previously focused on the Gaza conflict. However, the fragility of the agreement and the potential for renewed hostilities mean that the situation remains volatile. The involvement of international actors like Qatar, Egypt, and the US in brokering the agreement also highlights the complex web of geopolitical interests at play. The agreement could also serve as a model for future negotiations in other conflicts, although the specific circumstances in each case are unique. The continued fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly the reported advances by Russian forces, indicates that the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. The capture of key locations like Kotlyne and the ongoing battles near Velyka Novosilka, Kupyansk, and Makiivka demonstrate the fluidity of the situation on the ground. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in these areas and will need to reinforce their positions and counter Russian advances to prevent further losses. The use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with reports of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian positions and Russian drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. The effectiveness of drone warfare in reconnaissance, targeting, and precision strikes is evident. The deployment of NASAMS air defense systems by Norway in Poland highlights the ongoing efforts to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities and protect critical supply lines. The involvement of NATO member states in providing military aid and support to Ukraine remains a crucial factor in the conflict. The reported intention of Slovak Prime Minister Fico to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This could potentially impact the flow of aid to Ukraine and strain relations within the EU. The disagreement over the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is a key point of contention. The new sanctions announced by President Zelensky against propagandists and individuals aiding Russia demonstrate Ukraine's continued efforts to counter Russian influence and undermine the war effort. The revocation of state honors from those deemed disloyal further reinforces this message. The ongoing discussions between Ukrainian and Canadian military officials highlight the importance of international cooperation in strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. The focus on air and missile defense, as well as the development of unmanned systems, reflects the evolving nature of the conflict and the need to adapt to new threats. The Canadian military training mission UNIFIER has played a significant role in training Ukrainian troops, and its continued operation is a testament to the enduring partnership between the two countries. The confirmation of casualties from a previous missile strike on Lgov and the continued fighting in the Kursk region underscore the human cost of the conflict. The reported use of FPV drones by Russian forces and the continued fighting in various locations demonstrate the ongoing intensity of the conflict. The new video evidence of Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian losses provides further insight into the tactics and effectiveness of both sides. The reports of internal conflict and corruption within the Russian military, particularly the allegations against commanders of the 40th Marine Brigade, suggest potential weaknesses and morale issues within the Russian ranks. These internal problems could be exploited by Ukrainian forces to gain an advantage on the battlefield. The reported capture of Kotlyne by Russian forces and the ongoing encirclement of Pokrovsk represent a significant development in the Donetsk region. This further reinforces the critical situation for Ukrainian forces in the area and the need for immediate reinforcements and a reassessment of defensive strategies. The potential fall of Pokrovsk would be a major blow to Ukrainian defenses and could open the way for further Russian advances in the region. The new reports of guided aviation missiles heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava indicate a potential expansion of Russian air attacks to new areas. This could be a deliberate attempt to stretch Ukrainian air defenses thin and create new fronts in the conflict. Ukrainian forces will need to remain vigilant and adapt their air defense strategies to counter these new threats. The cancellation of the air raid alert in Kyiv and the removal of the ballistic missile threat from the east provide a temporary reprieve for the capital and surrounding areas. However, the continued air raid alerts in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia, highlight the ongoing threat to civilian populations and infrastructure. The new information about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and the exchange of prisoners provides a glimmer of hope for a de-escalation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip. However, the fragility of the agreement and the continued presence of armed groups in the region mean that the situation remains volatile. The involvement of international actors like Qatar in brokering the deal underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics at play. The agreement could potentially free up resources and attention that were previously focused on the Gaza conflict, but it is too early to tell what long-term impact it will have. The continued fighting in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, particularly the reported advances by Russian forces, indicates that the conflict in Ukraine is far from over. The capture of key locations like Kotlyne and the ongoing battles near Velyka Novosilka, Kupyansk, and Makiivka demonstrate the fluidity of the situation on the ground. Ukrainian forces are facing significant challenges in these areas and will need to reinforce their positions and counter Russian advances to prevent further losses. The use of drones by both sides continues to be a defining feature of the conflict, with reports of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian positions and Russian drones targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. The effectiveness of drone warfare in reconnaissance, targeting, and precision strikes is evident. The deployment of NASAMS air defense systems by Norway in Poland highlights the ongoing efforts to bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities and protect critical supply lines. The involvement of NATO member states in providing military aid and support to Ukraine remains a crucial factor in the conflict. The reported intention of Slovak Prime Minister Fico to veto further EU financial assistance to Ukraine adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This could potentially impact the flow of aid to Ukraine and strain relations within the EU. The disagreement over the resumption of Russian gas transit through Ukraine is a key point of contention. The new sanctions announced by President Zelensky against propagandists and individuals aiding Russia demonstrate Ukraine's continued efforts to counter Russian influence and undermine the war effort. The revocation of state honors from those deemed disloyal further reinforces this message. The ongoing discussions between Ukrainian and Canadian military officials highlight the importance of international cooperation in strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. The focus on air and missile defense, as well as the development of unmanned systems, reflects the evolving nature of the conflict and the need to adapt to new threats. The Canadian military training mission UNIFIER has played a significant role in training Ukrainian troops, and its continued operation is a testament to the enduring partnership between the two countries. The confirmation of casualties from a previous missile strike on Lgov and the continued fighting in the Kursk region underscore the human cost of the conflict. The reported use of FPV drones by Russian forces and the continued fighting in various locations demonstrate the ongoing intensity of the conflict. The new video evidence of Ukrainian drone strikes and Russian losses provides further insight into the tactics and effectiveness of both sides. The reports of internal conflict and corruption within the Russian military, particularly the allegations against commanders of the 40th Marine Brigade, suggest potential weaknesses and morale issues within the Russian ranks. These internal problems could be exploited by Ukrainian forces to gain an advantage on the battlefield. The reported capture of Kotlyne by Russian forces and the ongoing encirclement of Pokrovsk represent a significant development in the Donetsk region. This further reinforces the critical situation for Ukrainian forces in the area and the need for immediate reinforcements and a reassessment of defensive strategies. The potential fall of Pokrovsk would be a major blow to Ukrainian defenses and could open