Archived operational intelligence briefing
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured Vozdvyzhenka in the Donetsk People's Republic, significantly hindering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. They also report the destruction of a command post of a Ukrainian mechanized brigade. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. New drone activity is reported across multiple oblasts. This widespread drone activity indicates a significant escalation in aerial warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of using KAB bombs in the Sumy region.
US President-elect Donald Trump's reported intention to visit China could have far-reaching implications for the conflict in Ukraine. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked.
The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza. An agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages has come into effect.
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. They have also cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
Intense Fighting: There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations. Terrible consequences of enemy aggression in the Kursk region: commissions begin work to assess the destruction in the border area. In the Kursk region, commissions are starting to work on assessing the degree of destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This applies to those settlements that were not included in the list of non-commission issuance of certificates to residents. The Ministry of Defense provided the first list of 158 settlements where commissions can go. At least 16 of them (in 4 districts) have houses destroyed or damaged as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the governor of the Kursk region reports.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
New Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region. Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
New: Video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
New: Video evidence from "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the Kursk region.
New: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
New: Video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. The soldiers are from the 36th Marine Brigade, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, and other units. They report being sent to the Kursk region with minimal training and equipment, and describe being quickly overwhelmed by Russian forces. They also express dissatisfaction with their commanders and the Ukrainian military leadership.
New: A report from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" details the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of 2025-01-19. Key points include:
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