Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 19, 2025, 06:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses, while Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity, specifically on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest. Additional drone movements are reported in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk and in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south. New drone threats are also reported for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr. Another drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv, another in the north of Poltava heading west, another in the east of Kyiv heading west, another in the south of Poltava heading south, another in central Kharkiv heading south, another in Dnipropetrovsk heading south, and another in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. This widespread drone activity indicates a significant escalation in aerial warfare, with potential implications for both military and civilian infrastructure. The reported movements suggest a coordinated drone operation targeting multiple regions simultaneously, potentially overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. A drone has been reported moving from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west. Another drone is reported in the south of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.

US President-elect Donald Trump's reported intention to visit China within the first 100 days of his presidency, as reported by RBC-Ukraine citing the Wall Street Journal, is a significant geopolitical development. This potential visit, and the reported discussions between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping about a possible meeting, could have far-reaching implications for the global balance of power and, indirectly, for the conflict in Ukraine. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store. TikTok has stopped working in the US two hours earlier, the Chinese decided to "show off". The further fate of the video service in the US will be decided by the Trump administration.

The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 199 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out of the settlement. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 20 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 98 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno, a mine, and a mine control center. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
Other Advances: Russian forces report that they have entered Dmytriv and are advancing to the west and north of the settlement, as well as having severed the railway line and highway that Ukrainian forces used to supply their troops in Krasnoarmiisk. They also claim to have entered Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka and to have liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove. Significant advances are reported in Kotlyne, Udachne, and near Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yar, and Velyka Novosilka. The advance in Velyka Novosilka is particularly significant, with reports of a breakthrough from the east and north, advancing towards the center. Russian forces have broken through the defense and entered the first streets of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the Velyka Novosilka milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 19 times near Velyka Novosilka. Battles are ongoing. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. They have also cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Intense Fighting: There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
New Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region. This highlights the ongoing conflict in the region and the capture of Western-supplied equipment.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units six times in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 11 times near several settlements. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.
Borova Direction (New): Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
New Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
Attacks Inside Russia: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk and Tatarstan.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
New Drone Activity:
- Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest.
- Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk.
- Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south.
- Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
- A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
- A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
- A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
- A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
- A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
- A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
- A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
- A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
- A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
- A drone has been reported moving from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west.
- Another drone is reported in the south of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: A new video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) installation in an hangar in Olhivka, Kherson region.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad features operators of drones from the "Terek" Cossack brigade discussing their combat work and new developments in UAVs. The operators, with callsigns "Karlo" and "Malevich", share their experiences and perspectives on the future of drone warfare, emphasizing the importance of human operators over AI.

Missile Attacks

The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region, with missiles continuing their movement south in the Kharkiv region. X-22 missiles are reported flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Trump-Xi Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a visit to China within the first 100 days of his presidency and has discussed a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Potential Trump Visit to Gaza: US President-elect Donald Trump's special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly considering a visit to Gaza as part of efforts to maintain the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
German Ambassador's Comments on Trump: The German ambassador to Washington, Andreas Michaelis, reportedly described Trump's agenda as a program of "destruction" for the US, warning Berlin that the elected president allegedly intends to revise the constitutional order in the country.
Potential TikTok Ban in the US: New reports from TASS and Colonelcassad indicate that TikTok may be blocked in the US as early as today, January 19, 2025. This development could have significant implications for information dissemination and social media usage in the US. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation. TikTok has stopped working in the US two hours earlier, the Chinese decided to "show off". The further fate of the video service in the US will be decided by the Trump administration.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. According to the publication, the Israeli military is retreating to the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of Egypt and Gaza. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.

Other Developments

There is one enemy ship in the Black Sea, which is a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 4 missiles. There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
Casualties: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 199 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the largest number of battles occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted four missile strikes, 25 airstrikes (including seven missiles and 37 guided aerial bombs), and used 2420 kamikaze drones. They also carried out over 5,000 attacks on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Alleged Capture of North Korean Soldiers: The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side.
Art Exhibition in Moscow: An art exhibition titled "It's not like that at all, as in your rose-colored glasses" opened in Moscow. The exhibition, curated by SVO volunteer Anton Belikov, focuses on the "culture of war" and features digital art related to the conflict.
Children Playing "Mobilization" Game: Children in a Kyiv school were reportedly playing a "mobilization" game, mimicking the actions of the Ukrainian Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support (TCK). This incident raises concerns about the psychological impact of the conflict on children.
ENOT Trial Suspension: A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the ENOT organization due to their participation in the special operation.
Pantsir-S Air Defense System: A video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group.
Destruction of Enemy Dungeons: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly.
Destruction of Ukrainian Howitzer: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
Destruction of Ukrainian Communication Antenna: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel by a Russian "KUB" guided munition in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction.
Snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade: A video from Colonelcassad details snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction.
Video from "Two Majors": A video from "Two Majors" appears to be a montage combining footage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities, set to a song.
Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed.
Russian Advances Near Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Velyka Novosilka and five other settlements in the Donetsk region: Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yal, and Vremivka.
Trump's Arrival in Washington: US President-elect Donald Trump has arrived in Washington and is staying at the White House guest residence.
Historical Narrative About Voronezh: A post from "Дневник Десантника" highlights the historical significance of Voronezh during World War II, emphasizing its resistance to German occupation and the heavy losses suffered. The post notes that Voronezh was one of the 12 most destroyed cities during the war but was never awarded the title of "Hero City."
Military Equipment in Kursk Oblast: The "Two Majors" Telegram channel reports significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast since 6 AM. Some of this equipment has reportedly been destroyed. The message also mentions that tomorrow is the change of power for the "masters of the Khokhols" (a derogatory term for Ukrainians), suggesting a possible connection between the increased military activity and the political transition in the US.
Russian Advances in Donetsk Oblast: The "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces have advanced near Velyka Novosilka and five other settlements in the Donetsk region: Kotlyne, Udachne, Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yal, and Vremivka. This information is attributed to DeepState, an analytical group.
Kryvyi Rih Situation: The situation in Kryvyi Rih is under control as of the morning of January 19, 2025. There were no shelling incidents in the Kryvyi Rih district. In the Nikopol district, the enemy attacked the Nikopol and Marhanets communities with heavy artillery, MLRS "Grad", and a kamikaze drone. A industrial enterprise and an administrative building were damaged. There were no casualties. Air defense systems were active in the region overnight, shooting down one enemy UAV. The threat of missile and drone attacks remains. All services, public transport, hospitals, and social institutions in Kryvyi Rih are operating normally. Work continues to eliminate the consequences of the missile strike on January 17. All necessary utilities are involved. A relief headquarters continues to operate near the impact site, providing assistance to people, including building materials and applications for financial assistance. Four people, including one adult in serious condition, are in hospitals. Doctors are providing them with all necessary assistance.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, capturing several settlements and advancing towards Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks, including deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. The potential involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side, if confirmed, would mark a significant escalation of the conflict. The continued use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces poses a significant threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The new reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine indicate a significant escalation in aerial warfare. The potential meeting between US President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have far-reaching implications for the conflict, potentially altering the dynamics of international support for Ukraine. The confirmation of Ukrainian positions in the Borova direction suggests an attempt to consolidate their presence in the area. The video showcasing the Russian Pantsir-S air defense system serves as a propaganda piece, emphasizing the effectiveness of Russian air defense capabilities. The new video detailing the destruction of enemy dugouts near Sukhyi Yaly highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare and targeted attacks. The new videos showcasing Russian drone operations and the capture of Western-supplied equipment highlight the ongoing conflict in the Kursk region and the increasing use of drones in warfare. The potential ban of TikTok in the US adds another layer to the information warfare aspect of the conflict. The new video detailing the activities of snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade highlights the ongoing night operations and the use of precision fire tactics. The new video from "Two Majors" provides a glimpse into the training, logistics, and battlefield activities of Russian or pro-Russian forces. The withdrawal of Israeli troops from Rafah and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas could potentially impact the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, depending on how the situation in the Middle East evolves.

Changes from Previous Situation

New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
New Russian Airstrikes: Confirmed Russian airstrikes using Su-34 fighter-bombers in the Kursk region border area.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) installation in Olhivka, Kherson region.
New Drone Activity:
- A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
- A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
- A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
- A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
- A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
- A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
- A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
- A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
- A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
- A drone has been reported moving from Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast, heading west.
- Another drone is reported in the south of Sumy Oblast, heading southwest.
- An enemy drone was spotted in the north of the Kyiv region, course south-west.
New Geopolitical Developments:
- Potential Trump visit to Gaza.
- German Ambassador's comments on Trump.
- Potential TikTok ban in the US. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation. TikTok has stopped working in the US two hours earlier, the Chinese decided to "show off". The further fate of the video service in the US will be decided by the Trump administration.
- Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. According to the publication, the Israeli military is retreating to the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of Egypt and Gaza. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.
New Video Evidence:
- Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies and restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
- Operators of drones from the "Terek" Cossack brigade discussing their combat work and new developments in UAVs.
- Snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction.
- A video from "Two Majors" appears to be a montage combining footage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities, set to a song.
The new messages from "Operation Z: Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring" provide further details on the situation in the Borova direction. They report that Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai along several forest belts, covering an area of up to 3.85 km in width and 2.35 km in depth. This information, combined with the provided maps, suggests a Ukrainian attempt to consolidate their presence in the area, potentially in preparation for further defensive or offensive operations. The maps also indicate active combat zones around Kupyansk and Zelenyi Hai, with Russian forces making a strong push towards the latter. The concentration of arrows around Zelenyi Hai suggests it is a key strategic objective for Russian forces.
The new video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group. The video claims that the system is actively engaging and destroying Ukrainian aerial targets, utilizing its 12 anti-aircraft missiles and two 30mm cannons. The ability to switch from standby to combat mode in 10 seconds and the constant change of positions are highlighted as key operational features. This video serves as a propaganda piece, emphasizing the effectiveness of Russian air defense capabilities and demonstrating a show of force.
A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the organization ENOT ("United People's Communal Partnerships") due to their participation in the special operation, as reported by TASS. This development highlights the ongoing mobilization of various segments of Russian society to support the war effort in Ukraine.
The new video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly. The video shows multiple drone views, including thermal imaging, and targeted attacks on positions concealed by foliage and infrastructure. This demonstrates the effectiveness of drone warfare and targeted attacks in the ongoing conflict.
The video from Colonelcassad detailing snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel is significant. It highlights the use of advanced night vision and thermal imaging technology, allowing for effective operations in low-light conditions. The precision targeting demonstrated in the video suggests a high level of training and operational capability. This type of operation can significantly degrade enemy morale and disrupt their activities during the night. The strategic implications include the need for Ukrainian forces to enhance their night-time defenses and countersniper capabilities.
The video from "Two Majors" featuring a montage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities is a classic example of military propaganda. The alternation between combat training, logistics, and battlefield scenarios is designed to portray a well-prepared and capable fighting force. The training footage suggests an intention for offensive maneuvers, while the fortified dugouts indicate a defensive posture. This contradictory messaging could be aimed at different audiences or reflect internal disagreements within the military. The dependence on volunteers and the visibility of road transport highlight potential logistical weaknesses, which could be exploited by Ukrainian forces. The images of damaged infrastructure underscore the challenges of maintaining supply lines in a war zone. The black and white combat footage, alongside images of wounded soldiers, aims to evoke a sense of hardship and heroism, while also serving as a warning to potential recruits. The portrayal of both urban and rural warfare suggests that Russian forces are preparing for a variety of combat scenarios. Overall, this video serves to boost morale among supporters, intimidate adversaries, and potentially attract new recruits.
The report from Al Jazeera about the Israeli army withdrawing equipment and troops from Rafah and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas is a significant development in the Middle East. While seemingly unrelated to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect implications. A reduction in hostilities in Gaza might free up international attention and resources that could potentially be redirected towards Ukraine. Additionally, any shifts in US foreign policy focus due to developments in the Middle East could impact the level of support for Ukraine. However, the direct impact on the Ukrainian conflict remains to be seen and will depend on broader geopolitical dynamics.
Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been
New information from "РБК-Україна": Confirms that Russians attacked Ukraine with drones overnight, with air defense systems active in Kyiv. It also reiterates the news about TikTok being unavailable in the US, Trump's potential visit to China, and Israel's troop withdrawal from Rafah.

These new messages reinforce the ongoing trends:

Continued Drone Warfare: The new messages confirm the continued and widespread use of drones by both sides, with reports of drone attacks and air defense activity. The video evidence of drone operators and their tactics further emphasizes the importance of drones in the conflict.
Intensified Fighting in Donetsk: The high number of clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction, confirms the ongoing intensity of fighting in the Donetsk region.
Geopolitical Developments: The potential meeting between Trump and Xi, as well as the developments in Gaza, add new layers to the geopolitical context of the conflict. These events could potentially influence the level of international support for Ukraine and the overall dynamics of the war.
Propaganda and Information Warfare: The various videos and reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources highlight the ongoing information war, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and influence public opinion.
Focus on Kursk Region: The new messages about enemy equipment movement in the Kursk region suggest increased activity in this area, potentially indicating a shift in Russian strategy or a response to the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Therefore, the updated situation remains largely consistent with the previous analysis, with the new information providing further details and confirmation of ongoing trends. The situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces maintaining the offensive initiative and drone warfare continuing to play a significant role. The geopolitical developments add another layer of complexity to the conflict, with potential implications for the future course of the war. The new information about troop movements in Gaza and Trump's potential visit to China could have indirect but significant impacts on the conflict in Ukraine, depending on how these situations evolve.

Situation Report