Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 19, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces have captured several key locations, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics and defenses. The capture of Vremivka is a significant development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses, while Russian forces have regained territory and are advancing in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have made significant gains, capturing Ivanovka and advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity, specifically on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest. Additional drone movements are reported in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk and in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south. New drone threats are also reported for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr. Another drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv, another in the north of Poltava heading west, another in the east of Kyiv heading west, another in the south of Poltava heading south, another in central Kharkiv heading south, another in Dnipropetrovsk heading south, and another in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. This widespread drone activity indicates a significant escalation in aerial warfare, with potential implications for both military and civilian infrastructure. The reported movements suggest a coordinated drone operation targeting multiple regions simultaneously, potentially overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses.

The reported intention of US President-elect Donald Trump to visit China within the first 100 days of his presidency, as reported by RBC-Ukraine citing the Wall Street Journal, is a significant geopolitical development. This potential visit, and the reported discussions between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping about a possible meeting, could have far-reaching implications for the global balance of power and, indirectly, for the conflict in Ukraine. A rapprochement between the US and China could potentially alter the dynamics of international support for Ukraine, depending on the nature of any agreements reached between Trump and Xi. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store.

The new messages from "Operation Z: Military Correspondents of the Russian Spring" provide further details on the situation in the Borova direction. They report that Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai along several forest belts, covering an area of up to 3.85 km in width and 2.35 km in depth. This information, combined with the provided maps, suggests a Ukrainian attempt to consolidate their presence in the area, potentially in preparation for further defensive or offensive operations. The maps also indicate active combat zones around Kupyansk and Zelenyi Hai, with Russian forces making a strong push towards the latter. The concentration of arrows around Zelenyi Hai suggests it is a key strategic objective for Russian forces.

The new video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group. The video claims that the system is actively engaging and destroying Ukrainian aerial targets, utilizing its 12 anti-aircraft missiles and two 30mm cannons. The ability to switch from standby to combat mode in 10 seconds and the constant change of positions are highlighted as key operational features. This video serves as a propaganda piece, emphasizing the effectiveness of Russian air defense capabilities and demonstrating a show of force.

A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the organization ENOT ("United People's Communal Partnerships") due to their participation in the special operation, as reported by TASS. This development highlights the ongoing mobilization of various segments of Russian society to support the war effort in Ukraine.

The new video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly. The video shows multiple drone views, including thermal imaging, and targeted attacks on positions concealed by foliage and infrastructure. This demonstrates the effectiveness of drone warfare and targeted attacks in the ongoing conflict.

The new video from Colonelcassad details snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction. The video depicts a night-time or low-light military engagement, where a precision weapon is used in two distinct instances against an undetermined target. The use of thermal imaging and precision firing indicates an advanced operational capability. This situation calls for counter-sniper and precision fire tactics, advanced surveillance capabilities, and a comprehensive analysis of the target.

The new video from "Two Majors" appears to be a montage combining footage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities, set to a song. The clips alternate between combat training/preparation, logistics & supply, and battlefield scenarios. The training footage may be an attempt to portray a narrative of preparedness, suggesting an intention for offensive combat maneuvers, while the fortified dugouts seem to indicate a defensive minded positioning. This contradictory message of preparedness indicates a potential problem with logistics or a need to conceal their actual position. The dependence on volunteers and the visibility of road transport highlights potential weaknesses. An adversary could target these logistical lifelines. The images of damaged buildings and infrastructure would show areas that are likely to have degraded communications and travel times. The images of black and white combat scenarios alongside images of soldiers carrying the wounded would show a sense of hardship and a need to maintain their public narrative. Some images are in rural areas while others are in more urban landscapes. This could indicate that they have multiple battlefronts and could also be an attempt to portray different types of warfare for different types of recruitment, be it urban or rural.

The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. According to the publication, the Israeli military is retreating to the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of Egypt and Gaza. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 176 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out of the settlement. On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near several settlements. Five clashes are ongoing. Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are reported as 335 military personnel killed and wounded, three vehicles destroyed, and one antenna of a UAV, with two additional vehicles significantly damaged. The city hospital of Pokrovsk is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno, a mine, and a mine control center. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
Other Advances: Russian forces report that they have entered Dmytriv and are advancing to the west and north of the settlement, as well as having severed the railway line and highway that Ukrainian forces used to supply their troops in Krasnoarmiisk. They also claim to have entered Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka and to have liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove. Significant advances are reported in Kotlyne, Udachne, and near Novoandriivka, Sukhyi Yar, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka. The advance in Velyka Novosilka is particularly significant, with reports of a breakthrough from the east and north, advancing towards the center. Russian forces have broken through the defense and entered the first streets of Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the Velyka Novosilka milk factory, gas station, dormitory and airfield. On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces attacked 17 times near Velyka Novosilka. Battles are ongoing. Russian forces conducted airstrikes with guided bombs near several settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
Kramatorsk: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and liberating several settlements.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. They have also cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. Russian forces report that they have captured Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
Intense Fighting: There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations.
Heavy Losses: Ukrainian forces have reportedly suffered heavy losses, with estimates of up to 48,000 casualties. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
New Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of Kursk region.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region. This highlights the ongoing conflict in the region and the capture of Western-supplied equipment.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian aviation conducting airstrikes at Veterynarne. On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near several settlements. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.
Borova Direction (New): Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai, covering an area up to 3.85 km wide and 2.35 km deep.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Odesa. New groups of attack drones are reported, with specific movements and directions.
New Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
Attacks Inside Russia: Drone attacks inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure, including Almetyevsk and Tatarstan.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
New Drone Activity:
- Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest.
- Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk.
- Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south.
- Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
- A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
- A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
- A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
- A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
- A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
- A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
- A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
- A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
- A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: A new video from Colonelcassad shows a Russian drone attack on a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) installation in an hangar in Olhivka, Kherson region.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad features operators of drones from the "Terek" Cossack brigade discussing their combat work and new developments in UAVs. The operators, with callsigns "Karlo" and "Malevich", share their experiences and perspectives on the future of drone warfare, emphasizing the importance of human operators over AI.
New Video Evidence: New video evidence from Colonelcassad features operators of drones from the "Terek" Cossack brigade discussing their combat work and new developments in UAVs. The operators, with callsigns "Karlo" and "Malevich", share their experiences and perspectives on the future of drone warfare, emphasizing the importance of human operators over AI.

Missile Attacks

The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region, with missiles continuing their movement south in the Kharkiv region. X-22 missiles are reported flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Trump-Xi Meeting: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering a visit to China within the first 100 days of his presidency and has discussed a potential meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Potential Trump Visit to Gaza: US President-elect Donald Trump's special representative for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is reportedly considering a visit to Gaza as part of efforts to maintain the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
German Ambassador's Comments on Trump: The German ambassador to Washington, Andreas Michaelis, reportedly described Trump's agenda as a program of "destruction" for the US, warning Berlin that the elected president allegedly intends to revise the constitutional order in the country.
Potential TikTok Ban in the US: New reports from TASS and Colonelcassad indicate that TikTok may be blocked in the US as early as today, January 19, 2025. This development could have significant implications for information dissemination and social media usage in the US. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation.
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. According to the publication, the Israeli military is retreating to the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of Egypt and Gaza. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.

Other Developments

There is one enemy ship in the Black Sea, which is a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 4 missiles. There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
Casualties: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 176 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with the largest number of battles occurring in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces conducted four missile strikes, 22 airstrikes (including six missiles and 30 guided aerial bombs), and used 817 kamikaze drones. They also carried out over 4,300 attacks on Ukrainian positions and populated areas.
Alleged Capture of North Korean Soldiers: The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side.
Art Exhibition in Moscow: An art exhibition titled "It's not like that at all, as in your rose-colored glasses" opened in Moscow. The exhibition, curated by SVO volunteer Anton Belikov, focuses on the "culture of war" and features digital art related to the conflict.
Children Playing "Mobilization" Game: Children in a Kyiv school were reportedly playing a "mobilization" game, mimicking the actions of the Ukrainian Territorial Center of Recruitment and Social Support (TCK). This incident raises concerns about the psychological impact of the conflict on children.
ENOT Trial Suspension: A Russian court has suspended the trial of four members of the ENOT organization due to their participation in the special operation.
Pantsir-S Air Defense System: A video from Colonelcassad showcases the combat operation of a Pantsir-S air defense system, reportedly supporting the "Sever" group.
Destruction of Enemy Dungeons: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of enemy dugouts by a UAV crew of the 68th Army Corps near Sukhyi Yaly.
Destruction of Ukrainian Howitzer: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
Destruction of Ukrainian Communication Antenna: A video from Colonelcassad details the destruction of a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel by a Russian "KUB" guided munition in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction.
Snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade: A video from Colonelcassad details snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction.
Video from "Two Majors": A video from "Two Majors" appears to be a montage combining footage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities, set to a song.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, capturing several settlements and advancing towards Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks, including deep inside Russian territory. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. The potential involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side, if confirmed, would mark a significant escalation of the conflict. The continued use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces poses a significant threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The new reports of widespread drone activity across multiple regions of Ukraine indicate a significant escalation in aerial warfare. The potential meeting between US President-elect Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could have far-reaching implications for the conflict, potentially altering the dynamics of international support for Ukraine. The confirmation of Ukrainian positions in the Borova direction suggests an attempt to consolidate their presence in the area. The video showcasing the Russian Pantsir-S air defense system serves as a propaganda piece, emphasizing the effectiveness of Russian air defense capabilities. The new video detailing the destruction of enemy dugouts near Sukhyi Yaly highlights the effectiveness of drone warfare and targeted attacks. The new videos showcasing Russian drone operations and the capture of Western-supplied equipment highlight the ongoing conflict in the Kursk region and the increasing use of drones in warfare. The potential ban of TikTok in the US adds another layer to the information warfare aspect of the conflict. The new video detailing the activities of snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade highlights the ongoing night operations and the use of precision fire tactics. The new video from "Two Majors" provides a glimpse into the training, logistics, and battlefield activities of Russian or pro-Russian forces. The withdrawal of Israeli troops from Rafah and the implementation of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas could potentially impact the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, depending on how the situation in the Middle East evolves.

Changes from Previous Situation

Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia Lifted: The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been lifted.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
New Russian Airstrikes: Confirmed Russian airstrikes using Su-34 fighter-bombers in the Kursk region border area.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) installation in Olhivka, Kherson region.
New Drone Activity:
- A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
- A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
- A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
- A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
- A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
- A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
- A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
- A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
- A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
New Air Raid Alert: An air raid alert has been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
New Video Evidence of Drone Strikes: Confirmed drone attack on a Ukrainian communication antenna in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction.
New Geopolitical Developments:
- Potential Trump visit to Gaza.
- German Ambassador's comments on Trump.
- Potential TikTok ban in the US. Access to TikTok in the US has been blocked, and the service has disappeared from the Apple app store. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation.
- Israel-Hamas Ceasefire: The Israeli army has begun withdrawing equipment and troops from the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, according to Al Jazeera. According to the publication, the Israeli military is retreating to the Philadelphia Corridor, which is located on the border of Egypt and Gaza. Today marks the day when the agreement between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire and the release of hostages comes into effect.
New Video Evidence:
- Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies and restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
- Operators of drones from the "Terek" Cossack brigade discussing their combat work and new developments in UAVs.
- Snipers of the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group conducting a night hunt for enemy personnel in one of the areas of the South Donetsk direction.
- A video from "Two Majors" appears to be a montage combining footage of Russian or pro-Russian troops engaged in various activities, set to a song.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities and gas storage facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public.
Address the Situation in Kursk: Given the significant losses and stalled counteroffensive, reassess the strategy in the Kursk region. Consider redeploying forces to more critical areas if necessary.
Verify North Korean Involvement: Investigate the reports of captured North Korean soldiers and gather intelligence on the extent of North Korean involvement in the conflict.
Prepare for Increased Missile Attacks: Enhance air defense systems and early warning capabilities to counter the threat of Russian ballistic and cruise missile attacks.
Address the Psychological Impact on Children: Develop programs and initiatives to address the psychological impact of the conflict on children, particularly in areas close to the front lines.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, as well as the reported issues with Russian logistics and vehicle maintenance.
Enhance defenses in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts: Due to the increased drone activity, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
Stabilize the Front: Address the issues highlighted regarding the difficulties in stabilizing the front. Improve coordination between units, particularly the newly formed brigades, and ensure that defensive positions are strategically advantageous.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of civilian infrastructure, enhance measures to protect these areas. Deploy additional air defense systems around major cities and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks.
Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Continue engaging with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Highlight the need for advanced weaponry, particularly air defense systems, to counter Russian air superiority and protect civilian populations.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions. Utilize drones and other surveillance technologies to monitor enemy positions and movements, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies. Address the reported issues with vehicle maintenance and repair.
Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate the reasons behind the high desertion rates and take immediate steps to address the underlying issues. This may involve improving conditions for soldiers, addressing morale problems, and ensuring effective leadership.
Improve Communication and Training: Address the captured soldier's concerns about poor communication and training within the Ukrainian military. Implement measures to improve communication channels and provide better training to soldiers, particularly new recruits.
Counter the Drone Threat: Develop strategies to counter drone attacks on Russian territory and protect Ukrainian territory from similar attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Prepare for Further Drone Attacks: Given the continued drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine and the new attacks on Engels, maintain a high level of readiness and ensure that air defense systems are operational and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Enhance Cooperation with International Partners: Share information about the drone attacks with international partners and seek their assistance in developing counter-drone technologies and strategies.
Diplomatic Pressure: Increase diplomatic efforts to highlight the complexities of the conflict and the need for a balanced approach.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain vigilance and continue to monitor drone activity across all regions. Ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Address the Drone Threat in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond.
Monitor North Korean Missile Tests: Pay close attention to North Korea's missile tests and assess their potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine. Coordinate with South Korea and other allies to monitor the situation and develop appropriate responses.
Assess US Political Developments: Analyze the potential implications of the proposed bill to "buy Greenland" and its impact on US foreign policy and strategic interests. Consider how this move might affect US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Develop a Strategy to Counter Iran's Drone Capabilities: Given the reported advancements in Iran's drone technology, develop a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat. This could involve diplomatic efforts to prevent the transfer of these drones to Russia, as well as enhancing Ukraine's own drone and counter-drone capabilities.
Prepare for Potential Escalation near Velyka Novoselka: Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and prepare for a possible Russian offensive. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and artillery to the region and develop contingency plans for responding to a Russian breakthrough.
Respond to the Attacks on Engels and Kazan: Investigate the attacks on Engels and the reported fire at the "Orgsintez" plant in Kazan. Determine the extent of the damage and assess the impact on Russian military and industrial capabilities. Develop strategies to counter similar attacks in the future and enhance the protection of critical infrastructure.
Address the Humanitarian Situation: Given the reports of civilian casualties from Ukrainian attacks, provide necessary assistance to affected populations and ensure the protection of civilians in conflict zones.
Counter Drone Attacks on Russian Airports: Develop strategies to counter these attacks and protect civilian air travel. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems around airports, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Support the EU's Ban on Russian Gas Imports: Work with countries to develop a coordinated strategy for reducing reliance on Russian energy. Explore alternative sources of gas and accelerate the transition to renewable energy sources.
Monitor the Situation in Vasylkiv: Gather intelligence on the extent of the damage and assess any potential impact on Ukrainian air operations. Deploy additional air defense systems to the area to protect against further attacks.
Analyze the Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the US: Assess the potential implications of the strategic partnership document to be signed

Situation Report