Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 18, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured key locations, including Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been severed, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of the settlement. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. They are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne and are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. On the southern flank of the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) direction, Russian forces are developing success near Yasne and Slovyanka. Russian forces report that they have entered Dmytriv and are advancing to the west and north of the settlement, as well as having severed the railway line and highway that Ukrainian forces used to supply their troops in Krasnoarmiisk. New: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area of Chasiv Yar, capturing about half of the city's urban area. They have taken control of the Novyi district and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Reports indicate that Russian forces are using a new tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones. There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. New: Russian forces have cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

New: Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
New: Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
New: Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
New: Video evidence from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. This action is described as a priority for disrupting Ukrainian communications.
New: Video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk. The video depicts the destruction of a German Leopard tank and the capture of a Ukrainian stronghold.
New: On the Pokrovsk direction,** supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
New: On the Kurakhiv direction,** fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
New: Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions:** work of FPV drones on enemy manpower and equipment in the Dzerzhinsky direction was carried out by fighters of the 132nd brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces.
New: Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions:** Video evidence from the 12th "Azov" Brigade shows drones and a tank targeting Russian forces.
New: Russian Assault Near Velyka Novosilka:** The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka. The operation involved the use of incendiary devices and FPV drones, as well as the destruction of enemy dugouts.
New: Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
New: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east.
New: Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area of Chasiv Yar, capturing about half of the city's urban area. They have taken control of the Novyi district and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
New: Russian forces have gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 35th Marine Brigade targeting a Russian soldier with a drone. The soldier is seen removing his pants and creating a smoke screen after being hit.
New: Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. Russian forces are reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
New: Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
The body of a dead man was recovered from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia. One more person is known to be under the rubble, and the search and rescue operation is ongoing. The death toll is now confirmed at one, with ten wounded.
Reports indicate a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, cutting off the railway and highway used by Ukrainian forces to supply their troops in Krasnoarmiisk. They also claim to have entered Urozhaine and Novosergiyivka and to have liberated Slovyanka and Yasenove.
Reports of damage to a two-story building in the Vysochansk community of Kharkiv region due to a Russian attack.
Reports of Russian forces using Lancet loitering munitions to destroy a Ukrainian BTR-4 "Butsefal" armored personnel carrier in the Sumy region.
Reports of multiple attacks by Russian forces on Nikopol region using drones, MLRS "Grad," and artillery.
Reports of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian personnel near Yantarne.
Reports of rescuers recovering the body of a person killed in a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.
Reports of Russian forces targeting the "Luch" design bureau in Kyiv, reportedly disrupting the development of the "Vilkha" multiple launch rocket system (MLRS).

Kursk Region

New: Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
New: Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
New: Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
New: Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
New: Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
New: Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
New: The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
New: A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
New: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded.
New: Video evidence from the "TASS" Telegram channel shows a Russian Ka-52M helicopter conducting strikes on Ukrainian armor and personnel in the Kursk border area. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the operation.
New: Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. The video claims that the vehicle was captured by Russian forces, repaired, and put into service. The vehicle reportedly belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment of the US Army.
New: From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
New: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
New: Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
New: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Enemy reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, and the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance is mentioned.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
New: Video evidence of the Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system, which reportedly nullifies enemy attempts to hide from thermobaric munitions. The video features the TOS-2 "Tosochka" in service with the Group of Forces "Vostok," targeting Ukrainian Armed Forces positions near Velyka Novosilka. The soldiers praise the new vehicle for its accuracy, range, and maneuverability.
New: A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command. The soldier claims they lost half their personnel and were eventually captured.
New: Video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
New: Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.
New: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
New: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
New: Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
New: Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
New: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
New: Capture of two North Korean soldiers:** Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers.
New: Reinforcement of Kositsa:** The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
New: Russian advance in Sudzha area:** Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
New: Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka:** The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
New: Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka:** The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
New: Russian advances on western and northern flanks:** Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
New: 10-kilometer breakthrough:** Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
New: Makhnovka:** Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces clearing Makhnovka, but full control has not been established. Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
New: Artillery & Drones:** Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using larger groups (20-30 people) for assaults instead of smaller groups.
New: Intense Fighting:** Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha.
New: Renewed Russian Offensive:** Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
New: Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive:** The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. In the Kursk region, the enemy has transferred personnel from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade to the northern section of the front in the area of the settlement of Pogrebki, reports the Sever group of troops. From the march, reinforcements of the enemy on two BMPs and two APCs engaged in battle, but were destroyed. On the whole, heavy counter-battles continue in the region, the enemy is conducting an organized defense.
New: Russian forces have cleared the area south of Zelenyi Shlyakh.
Reports indicate that Russian forces are using a new tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.
Video evidence of a Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle driving down a muddy track through a field in foggy conditions. It is shot from a drone's perspective. We see the vehicle from behind as it travels along the track. The camera follows the vehicle closely, eventually getting very close and even showing the interior of the vehicle, which has sustained damage.
Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone targeting the vehicle as Ukrainian troops attempt to board it, resulting in a direct hit and likely destruction of the vehicle.
Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan.
Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated.
Reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
Video evidence from "STERNENKO" shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels. The video claims that the drone successfully hit the target, causing a fire.
Reports of the Ukrainian Air Force lifting the threat of ballistic missile use for all regions, but maintaining a threat of drone attacks for Sumy and Poltava regions.
Reports of Ukrainian forces observing a Russian FAB-500 aerial bomb with a UMPK kit flying towards a target in the South Donetsk direction.
Russian forces report shooting down two Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Tambov region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that a missile is traveling in the southern part of the Kharkiv region with a northwesterly course.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
X-22 missiles are flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.
There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions.
A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: Video evidence from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shows Russian forces using FPV drones equipped with fiber optics to destroy a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.

Kharkiv Region

New: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis.
New: Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
New: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
New: On the Kupiansk direction, the aggressor carried out offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian defenders stopped five enemy attacks.
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Reports of damage to a two-story building in the Vysochansk community of Kharkiv region due to a Russian attack.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage.
Ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

New: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
New: Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
New: Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
New: Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
New: Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
New: On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.

Drone Warfare

New: Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone:** The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
New: Continued drone attacks:** Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia.
New: Drone attack on Tula Oblast:** The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
New: Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone.
New: Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.
New: Video evidence from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" shows Russian forces using FPV drones equipped with fiber optics to destroy a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast. A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south.
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire.
A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Russian Lancet loitering munition destroying a Ukrainian BTR-4 "Butsefal" armored personnel carrier in the Sumy region.
A video from the Chinese company Norinco showcases the combat use of the ASN-301 loitering munition against enemy radar systems. The video highlights the drone's ability to loiter, identify targets using a combination of radar signal detection and video guidance, and strike with precision. The video emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of using loitering munitions compared to traditional anti-radiation missiles.
Video evidence of a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian ammunition depot. The video shows a drone targeting a building, resulting in a large explosion and fire. This demonstrates the continued use of drones for targeted attacks on enemy infrastructure and logistics.
Video evidence of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. The video shows drones dropping munitions on Russian trenches and dugouts, resulting in casualties.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that a Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast.
A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south.

Geopolitical Developments

New: The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism. They cite the impact of sanctions on Russia's energy sector, including the halting of tankers worldwide.
New: The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses," stating that "We have a proverb about a horse that buries itself even more when it dies. We saw this in the example of US President Joe Biden's decisions when he decided to pardon his son and allowed the use of missiles [for strikes deep into Russia]. This is how Zelensky behaves now. He understands that this situation will not last long."
New: Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue,** stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
New: A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
New: A TASS report states that Orban believes that once the conflict in Ukraine is over, sanctions against Russia will be "thrown out the window" and the West will establish normal relations with Russia.
New: Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
New: Peskov stated that Moscow views negatively the statement by Kyiv and London about cooperation in the Azov Sea, as it is an internal sea of Russia.
New: Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support and that its accession to the EU would
Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated.

Other Significant Developments

New: The Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" of businessman Rinat Akhmetov may completely stop after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine management, according to a political technologist who previously worked in Ukraine.
New: Biden stated that the US now faces a "technical-industrial complex," similar to the military-industrial complex that Eisenhower warned about.
New: Biden claimed that the US needs to amend its constitution to punish errant presidents.
New: Average spending by Russians on New Year celebrations reached a historical high, exceeding 64,000 rubles, according to a survey by VTsIOM. The main expense was gifts, averaging 29,868 rubles.
New: The CIA briefed Jimmy Carter on Cuba's readiness for engagement. This is evidenced by declassified US government documents released by the National Security Archive. From April 1978 to September 1980, US and Cuban representatives held a series of closed meetings. The discussed negotiations on normalizing relations ultimately did not take place, partly due to Reagan's rise to power.
New: With the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine, the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" of businessman Rinat Akhmetov may come to a complete stop.
New: Reports of drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk. This indicates a potential expansion of Ukrainian drone attacks to new regions within Russia.
New: Video evidence of Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk. This highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and
Explosions were reported in Kharkiv, specifically in the Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
The body of a dead man was recovered from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia. One more person is known to be under the rubble, and the search and rescue operation is ongoing. The death toll is now confirmed at one, with ten wounded.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that Russian forces are using special munitions loaded with dangerous chemicals, specifically citing K-51 and RG-VO riot control agents, which are prohibited for use in warfare. They report 434 cases of such munitions being used in December 2024 alone, and a total of 5389 cases since February 2023.
A Ukrainian company from Dnipropetrovsk reportedly facilitated the development of nuclear weapons for Russia by supplying stainless steel profiles used in a Russian nuclear research institute.
Reports of a Ukrainian soldier being awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine after being killed in action.
Reports of the World Monuments Fund, in collaboration with the Global Heritage Fund, including the Moon in its list of specially protected objects.
Reports of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stating that students who refuse to take the military oath or fail the military training exam will be expelled from universities.
Reports of two people, including a 14-year-old girl, being killed in a traffic accident in St. Petersburg, Russia.
Reports of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressing doubt that Ukraine can maintain its independence without the support of the US and NATO.
Reports of newly elected US President Donald Trump launching his own cryptocurrency, $TRUMP.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that new sanctions by the National Security and Defense Council (RNBO) will be implemented soon. He also praised Ukrainian law enforcement for their work against "traitors" and schemes that weaken the state.

Situation Report