Sitrep 2025-01-18 16:11:34

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 18, 2025, 16:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured key locations, including Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been severed, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Reports indicate that Russian forces are using a new tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a new threat of drones in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas.

New reports indicate that the Russian army is preparing to resolve the "Ukrainian question" or start a new war, according to the German Ministry of Defense. The ministry believes that the Kremlin is already arming itself "beyond" the needs of its troops in Ukraine and that Moscow intends to accumulate as many resources as possible to finally resolve the Ukrainian question or start a new war. The ministry believes that the Bundeswehr is not prepared, and in some areas is completely incapable. By 2028, Russia will pose a serious military threat to NATO. "Every month the Russian army has more tanks, more ammunition, more missiles and more drones. Production is growing, stocks are increasing. And although there is no certainty that the Russian Federation is actually planning an attack, it is clearly creating the conditions for it," said Defense Ministry spokesman Freuding. The newspaper also claims that Russia will do everything possible to fully occupy the DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions by 2026.

The US Treasury's announcement of measures to prevent a default starting January 21st is a significant development with potential global economic implications. While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, it could impact the US's ability to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine. A US default, or even the threat of one, could weaken the US dollar, disrupt financial markets, and potentially reduce the resources available for foreign assistance. The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament's comparison of Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" is a significant diplomatic statement. It reflects a critical view of the current leadership in the US and Ukraine, and suggests a belief that their policies are failing. The comment about Biden "allowing the use of missiles [for strikes deep into Russia]" is particularly noteworthy, as it implies a criticism of the US's increasing involvement in the conflict. This statement could further strain relations between Slovakia and the US and Ukraine, and may signal a shift in Slovakia's stance on the conflict. The Israeli government's approval of a deal with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages is a significant development that could impact regional stability. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect implications. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East could potentially free up resources and attention that could be directed towards the situation in Ukraine. Conversely, an escalation in Gaza could further complicate the global geopolitical landscape and potentially divert.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. Russian sources claim Kurakhovo has been liberated, though this is not yet confirmed by Ukrainian sources.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk. The 4th and 3rd workshops of the refractory plant have been practically cleared by Russian troops.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. The start of the assault on Pokrovsk indicates a significant escalation. Pokrovsk is a key city, and its capture would be a major victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will need to reinforce their defenses in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas to prevent further Russian advances. The outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk could have a significant impact on the overall course of the war in the Donetsk region.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Vremivka: Battles that have been going on for many months in the Vremivka area are ending with the success of Russian troops. Vremivka was taken by the Russian Army, Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka is in an operational encirclement.
Missile Strikes in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih. The number of wounded has risen to 5. A Danish F-16 pilot instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. A rocket hit a bomb shelter during an attack on an aviation college in Kryvyi Rih.
Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv, with reports of fires in the Shevchenkivskyi district and falling debris in the Desnianskyi district. The death toll has now risen to 4.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia. The number of wounded has now risen to 10. The body of a dead man was reportedly recovered from the rubble in Zaporizhzhia. One more person is known to be under the rubble, and the search and rescue operation is ongoing.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone in the Kursk region.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Video evidence: shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers capturing the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) and establishing a flag in the city.
New: Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha.
New: A new message from the Telegram channel "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of January 18. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trying to increase their personnel on positions under their control in order to hold them and stop the advance of Russian troops. Ukrainian forces are also reportedly continuing to mine all known routes of advance for Russian equipment and assault groups using octocopters.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed.
New: Video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. The soldiers report being sent to the Kursk region with minimal training and equipment, and describe being quickly overwhelmed by Russian forces.
Reports of 40 Ukrainian drones destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region overnight.
Russian forces are using a tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.
Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade reportedly repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
Video evidence shows Russian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
Video evidence from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded.
Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. The video claims that the vehicle was captured by Russian forces, repaired, and put into service. The vehicle reportedly belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment of the US Army.
Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone targeting the vehicle as Ukrainian troops attempt to board it, resulting in a direct hit and likely destruction of the vehicle.
Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle driving down a muddy track through a field in foggy conditions. It is shot from a drone's perspective. We see the vehicle from behind as it travels along the track. The camera follows the vehicle closely, eventually getting very close and even showing the interior of the vehicle, which has sustained damage. The video shows a Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle driving down a muddy track through a field in foggy conditions. It is shot from a drone's perspective. We see the vehicle from behind as it travels along the track. The camera follows the vehicle closely, eventually getting very close and even showing the interior of the vehicle, which has sustained damage. The video shows a Russian BMP infantry fighting vehicle driving down a muddy track through a field in foggy conditions. It is shot from a drone's perspective. We see the vehicle from behind as it travels along the track. The camera follows the vehicle closely, eventually getting very close and even showing the interior of the vehicle, which has sustained damage.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
In the Kharkiv region, a Russian soldier reportedly destroyed a group of 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers with mines.
There are reports of explosions in Kharkiv.
Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
On the Kupiansk direction, the aggressor carried out offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian defenders stopped five enemy attacks.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are developing success in Ivanovka, attempting to capture heights near Terny and storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.
North-West of Makiivka: Russian forces have advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements. They continue to advance towards Hrekivka.
On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. An oil depot near an airfield with strategic bombers in Engels, Russia, has been burning for three days after a drone attack.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". Russian forces are using drones equipped with infantry reactive flamethrowers.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. 2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk. 1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia. 1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west. 4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area. Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 33 out of 50 drones launched by Russian forces on the night of January 17, 2025. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day. Operators of the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces successfully targeted and eliminated 2 Zala and 3 Supercam Russian reconnaissance UAVs. 5 Russian reconnaissance drones have been shot down. The drones were reportedly shot down by the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces. This indicates a continued effort by Ukrainian forces to counter Russian drone operations. In the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, drone debris caused minor damage to a building's facade, with no reported casualties. Drone debris fell in the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a building's facade. This indicates a continued threat of drone attacks in the capital city. Air defense forces are actively responding to a missile attack in Belgorod, with multiple explosions reported in the sky above the Belgorod region. Ukrainian UAV operators from the "Birds of Madyar" unit documented the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in the Kursk region. UAV pilots from the Rubikon Center conducted a nighttime operation, resulting in the destruction of an AFU motor vehicle using an FPV drone.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The declaration of a "Yellow Level 'Air Danger'" across the entire Lipetsk Oblast signifies a heightened threat perception from aerial attacks, likely due to drone activity. This requires immediate defensive actions, including the deployment of air defense systems and potentially the grounding of vulnerable aircraft. The increased threat level will likely impact civilian activities and may lead to restrictions on movement and gatherings. The fact that two more Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Bryansk region confirms ongoing Ukrainian attempts to strike targets within Russian territory. It also highlights the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in intercepting these threats. The continued drone attacks suggest a Ukrainian strategy of trying to stretch Russian air defense resources and potentially target military or industrial sites.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones.
Report of Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Russian chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions overnight.
27 Drones Destroyed: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
Drone attack on Poltava region: Russian forces attacked the Poltava region overnight using drones. The falling debris from the downed drones damaged energy infrastructure. 301 households and 22 legal consumers are currently without power.
Drone attacks on Nikopol region: From the evening until the morning, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region with Grad, Uragan, artillery and drones. A woman was killed and a man was injured in Nikopol. About 30 private houses were damaged, one was destroyed. 15 outbuildings were damaged. 6 garages and 7 cars were damaged. 5 apartment buildings and several enterprises were damaged. Power lines and gas pipelines were also damaged. Marganets, Myriv and Pokrovsk communities were also under attack. Infrastructure was damaged in the latter. No one was injured.
Ukrainian air defenses: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
**Continued drone attacks
Ukrainian drone operators filmed Russian forces using a tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.
Romanian Observation: Romanian observers reportedly witnessed a "Geranium" drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa region.
Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated.
Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan.
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire.
Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated.
Reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
Video evidence from "STERNENKO" shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels. The video claims that the drone successfully hit the target, causing a fire.
A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. This confirms the operational use of this new technology.
New Russian drones, including the "Pirahna-13" and a new launch system for the "Lancet" series, have been introduced.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
A video from the Chinese company Norinco showcases the combat use of the ASN-301 loitering munition against enemy radar systems. The video highlights the drone's ability to loiter, identify targets using a combination of radar signal detection and video guidance, and strike with precision. The video emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of using loitering munitions compared to traditional anti-radiation missiles.
Video evidence of a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian ammunition depot. The video shows a drone targeting a building, resulting in a large explosion and fire. This demonstrates the continued use of drones for targeted attacks on enemy infrastructure and logistics.
Video evidence of Ukrainian drones targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. The video shows drones dropping munitions on Russian trenches and dugouts, resulting in casualties.

Missile Attacks

Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage.
Ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
Russian forces report shooting down two Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Tambov region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that a missile is traveling in the southern part of the Kharkiv region with a northwesterly course.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
X-22 missiles are flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.
There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions.
A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.
A high-speed target is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving southwest.
A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
Pryluki is under threat.
Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area, expected to reach Ukrainian territory around 06:50 UTC.
Missiles are flying from the temporarily occupied territories in the Kherson region towards the northwest.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying through the Beryslav district towards the Mykolaiv region, likely in the direction of Novyi Buh/Kazanka and further into the Kirovohrad region.
A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
A high-speed target is reported to be heading towards Dnipro. This indicates a potential missile attack on the city.
A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv.
In Berislav, two people were killed as a result of a Russian mortar attack.

Geopolitical Developments

Damage to a main cable in Tatarstan has led to internet speed reductions for 3.8 million Russians in 21 regions.
Putin awarded the title of "City of Labor Valor" to seven Russian cities.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that Poland is not currently prepared to send troops to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Rada has extended martial law and mobilization until May 9th.
Russian special services conducted large-scale "exercises" to block the internet, which did not go according to plan and were deemed unsatisfactory. The exercises resulted in the blocking of a significant part of the "sovereign Internet" segment and the unblocking of part of the "enemy" segment.
US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly putting pressure on the Russian leadership, using economic threats. Trump's team has stopped discussing concessions on the terms of a possible end to the war in Ukraine and is revising some of the agreements that had already been reached.
A Swedish company, Rekyl, is reportedly collecting funds to support Ukrainian forces and selling clothes with fascist symbols.
NATO is planning large-scale exercises ("Steadfast Dart") on its eastern flank from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. In addition to this, NATO has started the "Combined Resolve" exercise in southern Germany, involving US and Polish troops, and "Dynamic Guard" will take place in early February near the coast of Norway.
Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
Pro-Russian incumbent Zoran Milanović reportedly won the Croatian presidential election with 77.70% of the vote.
The German party "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - For Reason and Justice" adopted an election program calling for the resumption of supplies of Russian gas and a truce in Ukraine.
The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the refusal to allow a special Slovak aircraft to enter Russian airspace was due to incomplete documentation.
The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza, with negotiations involving Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar.
Confirmed drone attacks on Kazan and industrial enterprises in Saratov, as well as reports of a fire at the "Orgsintez" plant in Kazan.
Introduction of a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series by ZALA.
Alleged attempted poisoning near Yaroslavl.
Reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station, part of the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso.
NATO plans to deploy a fleet of drones in the Baltic Sea and reinforce its military presence in the region. The Israeli government's approval of a deal with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages is a significant development that could impact regional stability. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect implications. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East could potentially free up resources and attention that could be directed towards the situation in Ukraine. Conversely, an escalation in Gaza could further complicate the global geopolitical landscape and potentially divert.
NATO ships have begun patrolling the Baltic Sea after damage to underwater cables. Some of the ships are anchored in the Mine Harbor of Tallinn.
The leader of the German far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, Katrin Ebner-Steiner, has called for the deportation of Ukrainians from Germany. She argues that there is nothing for Ukrainians to do in Germany and that they should return to their country. This statement reflects a growing anti-immigrant sentiment in some parts of Europe, and could potentially impact support for Ukrainian refugees.
The Houthis, who have already announced that they will follow

Situation Report