Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 18, 2025, 15:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured key locations, including Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been severed, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. A Ukrainian official has been accused of illegally helping 23 individuals, including three who did not return, to leave the country. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a new threat of drones in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk Oblasts.

The US Treasury's announcement of measures to prevent a default starting January 21st is a significant development with potential global economic implications. While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, it could impact the US's ability to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine. A US default, or even the threat of one, could weaken the US dollar, disrupt financial markets, and potentially reduce the resources available for foreign assistance. The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament's comparison of Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" is a significant diplomatic statement. It reflects a critical view of the current leadership in the US and Ukraine, and suggests a belief that their policies are failing. The comment about Biden "allowing the use of missiles [for strikes deep into Russia]" is particularly noteworthy, as it implies a criticism of the US's increasing involvement in the conflict. This statement could further strain relations between Slovakia and the US and Ukraine, and may signal a shift in Slovakia's stance on the conflict. The Israeli government's approval of a deal with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages is a significant development that could impact regional stability. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect implications. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East could potentially free up resources and attention that could be directed towards the situation in Ukraine. Conversely, an escalation in Gaza could further complicate the global geopolitical landscape and potentially divert.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. Russian sources claim Kurakhovo has been liberated, though this is not yet confirmed by Ukrainian sources.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk. The 4th and 3rd workshops of the refractory plant have been practically cleared by Russian troops.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. The start of the assault on Pokrovsk indicates a significant escalation. Pokrovsk is a key city, and its capture would be a major victory for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will need to reinforce their defenses in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas to prevent further Russian advances. The outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk could have a significant impact on the overall course of the war in the Donetsk region.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Vremivka: Battles that have been going on for many months in the Vremivka area are ending with the success of Russian troops. Vremivka was taken by the Russian Army, Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka is in an operational encirclement.
Missile Strikes in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih. The number of wounded has risen to 5. A Danish F-16 pilot instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih.
Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv, with reports of fires in the Shevchenkivskyi district and falling debris in the Desnianskyi district. The death toll has now risen to 4.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia. The number of wounded has now risen to 10.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone in the Kursk region.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Video evidence: shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers capturing the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) and establishing a flag in the city.
New: Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha.
New: A new message from the Telegram channel "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of January 18. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trying to increase their personnel on positions under their control in order to hold them and stop the advance of Russian troops. Ukrainian forces are also reportedly continuing to mine all known routes of advance for Russian equipment and assault groups using octocopters.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed.
New: Video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. The soldiers report being sent to the Kursk region with minimal training and equipment, and describe being quickly overwhelmed by Russian forces.
Reports of 40 Ukrainian drones destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region overnight.
Russian forces are using a tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
In the Kharkiv region, a Russian soldier reportedly destroyed a group of 8 Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers with mines.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are developing success in Ivanovka, attempting to capture heights near Terny and storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.
North-West of Makiivka: Russian forces have advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements. They continue to advance towards Hrekivka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. An oil depot near an airfield with strategic bombers in Engels, Russia, has been burning for three days after a drone attack.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". Russian forces are using drones equipped with infantry reactive flamethrowers.
Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 33 out of 50 drones launched by Russian forces on the night of January 17, 2025. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The declaration of a "Yellow Level 'Air Danger'" across the entire Lipetsk Oblast signifies a heightened threat perception from aerial attacks, likely due to drone activity. This requires immediate defensive actions, including the deployment of air defense systems and potentially the grounding of vulnerable aircraft. The increased threat level will likely impact civilian activities and may lead to restrictions on movement and gatherings. The fact that two more Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Bryansk region confirms ongoing Ukrainian attempts to strike targets within Russian territory. It also highlights the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in intercepting these threats. The continued drone attacks suggest a Ukrainian strategy of trying to stretch Russian air defense resources and potentially target military or industrial sites.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones.
Report of Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Russian chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions overnight.
27 Drones Destroyed: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
Drone attack on Poltava region: Russian forces attacked the Poltava region overnight using drones. The falling debris from the downed drones damaged energy infrastructure. 301 households and 22 legal consumers are currently without power.
Drone attacks on Nikopol region: From the evening until the morning, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region with Grad, Uragan, artillery and drones. A woman was killed and a man was injured in Nikopol. About 30 private houses were damaged, one was destroyed. 15 outbuildings were damaged. 6 garages and 7 cars were damaged. 5 apartment buildings and several enterprises were damaged. Power lines and gas pipelines were also damaged. Marganets, Myriv and Pokrovsk communities were also under attack. Infrastructure was damaged in the latter. No one was injured.
Ukrainian air defenses: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
**Continued drone attacks
Ukrainian drone operators filmed Russian forces using a tactic of deploying a soldier as bait to lure in Ukrainian FPV drones.
Romanian Observation: Romanian observers reportedly witnessed a "Geranium" drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa region.

Missile Attacks

Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage.

Geopolitical Developments

Damage to a main cable in Tatarstan has led to internet speed reductions for 3.8 million Russians in 21 regions.
Putin awarded the title of "City of Labor Valor" to seven Russian cities.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that Poland is not currently prepared to send troops to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Rada has extended martial law and mobilization until May 9th.
Russian special services conducted large-scale "exercises" to block the internet, which did not go according to plan and were deemed unsatisfactory. The exercises resulted in the blocking of a significant part of the "sovereign Internet" segment and the unblocking of part of the "enemy" segment.
US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly putting pressure on the Russian leadership, using economic threats. Trump's team has stopped discussing concessions on the terms of a possible end to the war in Ukraine and is revising some of the agreements that had already been reached.
A Swedish company, Rekyl, is reportedly collecting funds to support Ukrainian forces and selling clothes with fascist symbols.
NATO is planning large-scale exercises ("Steadfast Dart") on its eastern flank from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. In addition to this, NATO has started the "Combined Resolve" exercise in southern Germany, involving US and Polish troops, and "Dynamic Guard" will take place in early February near the coast of Norway.
Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
Pro-Russian incumbent Zoran Milanović reportedly won the Croatian presidential election with 77.70% of the vote.
The German party "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - For Reason and Justice" adopted an election program calling for the resumption of supplies of Russian gas and a truce in Ukraine.
The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the refusal to allow a special Slovak aircraft to enter Russian airspace was due to incomplete documentation.
The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza, with negotiations involving Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar.
Confirmed drone attacks on Kazan and industrial enterprises in Saratov, as well as reports of a fire at the "Orgsintez" plant in Kazan.
Introduction of a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series by ZALA.
Alleged attempted poisoning near Yaroslavl.
Reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station, part of the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso.
NATO plans to deploy a fleet of drones in the Baltic Sea and reinforce its military presence in the region. The Israeli government's approval of a deal with Hamas for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages is a significant development that could impact regional stability. While not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, it could have indirect implications. A reduction in tensions in the Middle East could potentially free up resources and attention that could be directed towards the situation in Ukraine. Conversely, an escalation in Gaza could further complicate the global geopolitical landscape and potentially divert.

Internal Russian Issues

The acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexander Khinshtein, met with residents of the Sudzhansky district who were protesting the lack of housing assistance. Khinshtein reportedly promised to meet with an initiative group but was met with skepticism from residents. A video circulating on pro-Russian Telegram channels reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian tank by a Russian drone using fiber-optic guidance.
A video from the Telegram channel "Басурин о главном" shows damage to a McDonald's restaurant in Kyiv, with the caption claiming that it has been "denazified."
A video from TASS reports that the Ukrainian command ignored requests from soldiers in the Vremivka garrison.
A social media post ridicules a tweet by Petr Losev, who spent time developing a game instead of engaging in political activism against Putin.
A social media post criticizes Ilya Yashin for attending a music festival in Germany instead of focusing on anti-war efforts.
A social media post discusses tensions between the "Russian community" and other ethnic groups in Mytishchi, Russia. The post criticizes the head of Mytishchi for allegedly siding with the other ethnic groups against the "Russian community."
Reports of internal conflict and corruption within the Russian military, with allegations of commanders from the 40th Marine Brigade extorting money from soldiers and using physical violence.
Russian forces are reportedly using new drones with fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
A video from the Telegram channel "Mash на Донбассе" reports on the alleged capture of a Ukrainian spotter in Novoukrainka, thanks to the help of local residents.

Ukrainian Internal Issues

A social media post claims that Elon Musk has announced a new campaign called "MEGA" (Make Europe Great Again), which aims to support right-wing and independent movements in Europe.
President Zelenskyy provided updated figures on Ukrainian and Russian troop numbers, highlighting the numerical advantage of Russian forces in concentrated areas.
A Ukrainian official has been accused of illegally helping 23 individuals, including three who did not return, to leave the country. The official is a member of the Committee on Transport and Infrastructure and allegedly sent letters to the State Border Guard Service requesting exit permits for these individuals under the guise of them being "drivers" for his entourage.
A news report states that the son of former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, Oleksiy, has been declared a draft dodger and fined.
Photos and a message from "РБК-Україна" report on a Kyiv hospital official who allegedly demanded a bribe from a wounded soldier in exchange for confirming his disability status.
Reports of a significant increase in criminal cases for desertion from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with 89,449 cases. The report from the commander of the "Azov" brigade, Denis Prokopenko, highlights critical issues with the fortification efforts on the front lines. His statement that there is a lack of "brains and skills" for proper fortification, even when resources are available, points to a deeper problem of training, organization, and possibly leadership within the Ukrainian forces. The offer to conduct training sessions based on "Azov's" own experience suggests a recognition of this gap and a willingness to share expertise. This situation could significantly impact the Ukrainian defense capabilities, especially in the Lyman and Toretsk directions where "Azov" has been operating. The lack of proper fortifications could make Ukrainian positions more vulnerable to Russian attacks and could lead to increased casualties and loss of territory.

Other Developments

Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, with 25 soldiers from each side being returned. The exchange was reportedly facilitated by the UAE.
A report details upcoming NATO exercises in Romania, including "Steadfast Dart" and "Dacia." The exercises will focus on amphibious operations, coastal defense, and the use of drones in the Danube basin and Black Sea. The report also mentions the involvement of US Navy Task Forces 66 and 68 in previous exercises in Romania, highlighting the strategic importance of the Danube in Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.
A video from the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly shows a Russian soldier being used as a "camel" or "bug" to carry ammunition and a radio to a forward position. The soldier is targeted by Ukrainian drones.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas.
Former Polish Prime Minister Miller criticizes Ukraine's reverence for Stepan Bandera and suggests that this hinders a breakthrough in Polish-Ukrainian relations.
A video from the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration explains how to contact the educational ombudsman in Ukraine.
A video shows unknown individuals setting fire to communication towers near Krasnodar, with the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claiming responsibility.
A video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel shows a Dassault Rafale fighter jet flying in formation.
Another video from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel shows three ships in a convoy formation, observed from an airborne platform.
A photo from the "Fighterbomber" Telegram channel shows two Dassault Rafale fighter jets flying in formation over clouds.
A video shows unknown individuals setting fire to electrical infrastructure, reportedly in an act of sabotage. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) has claimed responsibility for similar attacks.
A video shows a Russian official in the Kursk region, identified as acting governor Khinshtein, interacting with a group of civilians. The civilians are reportedly complaining about inadequate housing assistance following damage from hostilities. Khinshtein threatens them with imprisonment if they do not disperse.
A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows the aftermath of an assault on a building in the Kursk region, reportedly resulting in the deaths of 7 Ukrainian soldiers.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released a report detailing losses inflicted on Ukrainian forces attempting to invade the Kursk region. The report claims significant Ukrainian casualties and equipment losses, including over 52,660 troops and 304 tanks since the beginning of hostilities in the region.
A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel discusses the use of new Russian drones with fiber-optic cables, which are reportedly resistant to electronic warfare. The video claims that these drones have been used to destroy significant amounts of NATO equipment.
A video shows a group of UFC fighters speaking Russian and promoting UFC Fight Pass.
A video from the "Kotsnews" Telegram channel reportedly shows the storming of Vremivka by Russian forces. The video claims that Russian forces cleared approximately 600 buildings and established a Russian flag in the settlement.
Iranian President Pezeshkian stated that the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran demonstrates that both countries are capable of ensuring regional security without external interference.
Photos from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine show a search being conducted at the home of a Ukrainian MP suspected of organizing the illegal crossing of the border for 23 individuals.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that Hungary and Serbia consider it their task to ensure the security of the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline.
Photos and a message from the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War show a peaceful demonstration in support of missing and captured Ukrainian soldiers. The demonstration was organized by the families of soldiers from the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade.
A video from the Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows an infrared image of what is claimed to be a ballistic missile strike on the "Motor Sich" enterprise in Zaporizhzhia.
A video from the Telegram channel "Воин DV" shows two captured Ukrainian soldiers from the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. The soldiers thank the Russian 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade for sparing their lives and urge other Ukrainian soldiers to surrender.
A photo shows a damaged building in St. Petersburg after a car crashed into it and fell into the Obvodny Canal.
A social media post advertises services for obtaining Russian driver's licenses, including for those who have had their licenses revoked. The post also mentions discounts for participants in the "special military operation" (SVO).
A report from the Telegram channel "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" details upcoming NATO military exercises in Romania, including "Steadfast Dart" and "Dacia." The exercises will focus on amphibious operations, coastal defense, and the use of drones in the Danube basin and Black Sea.
A video from the Telegram channel "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows the aftermath of a sabotage attack on electrical infrastructure, reportedly carried out by Ukrainian forces.
Reports that border guards of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine "Fortpost" brigade destroyed Russian equipment and captured six Russian soldiers in the Vovchansk area.
Video from the Telegram channel "Два майора" shows two majors from the Zaporozhye direction thanking readers for their assistance in providing them with motorcycles.
Reports that the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has died in a plane crash. The crash reportedly occurred near the village of Kuzhenkino in the Tver region of Russia. All 10 people on board, including Prigozhin and his deputy Dmitry Utkin, were killed. The plane was reportedly en route from Moscow to St. Petersburg. The cause of the crash is under investigation, but some sources suggest that the plane may have been shot down by Russian air defenses. The Wagner Group has confirmed Prigozhin's death and has vowed to take revenge. The situation is still developing, but the death of Prigozhin is a significant event that could have major implications for the war in Ukraine and the future of the Wagner Group.
Reports that the Ukrainian military is using FPV drones equipped with infantry rocket flamethrowers to clear enemy positions. The drones are reportedly capable of creating temperatures up to 1000 degrees Celsius in enclosed spaces.
Reports that the Ukrainian military has destroyed a significant amount of Russian equipment in the Kursk region, including tanks, Stryker armored personnel carriers, and Humvees. The attacks were reportedly carried out by the 56th Crimean Cossack Regiment using fiber-optic drones from the ONF.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and have now captured Peschanoye, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, and Yantarne. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with the Ukrainian defense reportedly collapsing. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, with the potential to impact Russian military medical capacity. The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict. The reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep inside Russia. The new information regarding the capture of Vremivka and Neskuchne, along with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka, represents a significant Russian tactical victory. The intensified drone warfare, particularly the attacks deep inside Russia, demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike strategic targets. The persistent air threat across Ukraine and the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the intensity of the conflict. The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is a major geopolitical development with potential ramifications for the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations indicate a high tempo of strikes. The potential for Russian interference in German elections adds another layer

Situation Report