Archived operational intelligence briefing
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured key locations, including Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been severed, severely hampering Ukrainian logistics. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and within 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. In the Velyka Novosilka area, actions to encircle the enemy garrison continue, with the zone of control expanding near Neskuchnoye, and battles ongoing in the area of Novy Komar. The last road supplying Velyka Novosilka is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.
A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. There are no changes along the frontline as of the morning of January 18. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trying to increase their personnel on positions under their control in order to hold them and stop the advance of Russian troops. In areas where Ukrainian forces are losing positions, attempts are being made to send in reserves with equipment, but these attempts are reportedly unsuccessful in 90% of cases. Ukrainian forces are also reportedly continuing to mine all known routes of advance for Russian equipment and assault groups using octocopters. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing to engineer all positions near each settlement, indicating that the Ukrainian command intends to hold each village to the last man. Groups from the 73rd Special Operations Center are being used on some sections of the front, but their presence only slightly slows down the advance of Russian troops. Weather conditions, such as frequent fog and poor visibility, are causing more inconvenience for both sides, especially in conducting reconnaissance, as it becomes difficult to use drones.
In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds. Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.
Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys". There are new reports of drone attacks on a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Reports indicate drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging hostile drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the all-clear for the threat of attack drones. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft are reported in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions. Ukrainian forces report destroying 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaging a cannon using drones. They also successfully targeted a Russian "Buk" air defense system with a HIMARS system. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Russian forces report shooting down 46 Ukrainian drones overnight. New reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. There is a significant increase in drone activity around Kyiv, Boryspil, Brovary, and Vyshhorod. Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging these drones. The Ukrainian Air Force has issued warnings for Kyiv, Boryspil, and Brovary due to the threat of hostile drones. One drone is confirmed to be flying past Boryspil towards Kyiv, another is approaching Brovary, and a third is flying towards Vyshhorod. Russian air defense forces and electronic warfare systems reportedly destroyed five more drones in the Tula region.
Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with 39 drones and 4 ballistic missiles. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 ballistic missiles and 24 drones. 14 drones were classified as decoys and did not reach their targets. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that this morning, in response to the firing of U.S.-made ATACMS missiles on civilian infrastructure in the Belgorod region, the Russian Armed Forces carried out a group high-precision strike against Ukrainian defense industry facilities, including the Luch design bureau, which designs and manufactures Neptune long-range guided missiles and Olkha MLRS rockets. All objectives were achieved, and targets were engaged.
Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia."
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. In Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), Russian forces reportedly entered Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and are continuing to push Ukrainian troops out of Dzerzhynsk.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. A video from the brigade details the circumstances of their capture, including allegations of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repulse the enemy's attempts to advance deep into Ukrainian territory, inflicting fire damage on them. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas. On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. The enemy launched air strikes with KABs on Kramatorsk, Ivanopillia, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Petrivka. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 41 enemy assaults. Six more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 340 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times. The enemy hit Piatykhatky with NARs.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence shows Russian forces advancing near the South-Eastern mine in Chasiv Yar and controlling approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. The defense of the main enemy stronghold at the Refractory Plant in Chasiv Yar reportedly fell, and videos of Russian troops at the facility have appeared online.
"Z committee + map of the SVO" reports significant territorial gains for Russian forces on January 16, 2025: The report claims a total gain of 13.82 km² in the "Zone of SVO", with specific advances in Kotlyno, Uspenivka, Shevchenko, Yantarne, Sukhyi Yaly, Vremivka, and Novosilka.
"WarGonzo" provides a frontline report for the morning of January 17, 2025: The report indicates continued positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia front, intense fighting in the Donetsk front with Russian advances towards Novoocheretovatoe and Vremivka, ongoing battles in the Chasiv Yar direction, and continued fighting in the Kursk region.
Vremivka: Battles that have been going on for many months in the Vremivka area are ending with the success of Russian troops. Vremivka was taken by the Russian Army, Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka is in an operational encirclement, the remaining enemy soldiers will have to leave through backyards (there are no roads left) and cross water obstacles by fording. Supply to the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison in the settlement is almost impossible.
Missile Strikes in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih. The exact number of missiles and casualties is still being clarified. The number of wounded has risen to 5.
Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv, with reports of fires in the Shevchenkivskyi district and falling debris in the Desnianskyi district. One person is confirmed dead, and the death toll has risen to three, according to local authorities. There are also reports of damage to a non-residential building, windows of a residential building, and a water main, causing water outages in some areas. The Lukianivska metro station has been closed due to damage. Video evidence shows a fire near the Lukyanivska metro station and a burning building in the Shevchenkivskyi district. A video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel reportedly shows a missile hitting a water pipe. Video evidence from "ASTRA" Telegram channel shows the aftermath of an attack in Kyiv, with damage to a building, a fire, and a flooded street. The death toll has now risen to 4. The State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS) reported that three cars caught fire in the Shevchenkivskyi district of the capital, and ten more were damaged. They also reported damage to an administrative building, a business center building, and a store. A water main was also damaged. One of the buildings caught fire, which has already been contained. A video from the Telegram channel "Дневник Десантника" shows a member of the "SSO Byzantium" setting up communications and working for units near Kurakhovo, who then successfully completed their tasks, including night raids. A photo from the Telegram channel "РБК-Україна" shows the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (DSNS) responding to the aftermath of a Russian attack on the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv. They reported that three cars caught fire and ten more were damaged. They also reported damage to an administrative building, a business center building, and a store. A water main was also damaged. One of the buildings caught fire, which has already been contained. Three people were reported dead, and three more were injured. The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reported four deaths. The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) reported four deaths.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, with reports of an infrastructure object being hit and casualties. The number of wounded has risen to two. The number of wounded has now risen to 6. The number of wounded has risen to 8. The number of wounded has now risen to 10. Two of the wounded were treated on the spot, while the other 8 were hospitalized. A 48-year-old woman is in critical condition.
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km².
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost 90 EW stations in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.
"WarGonzo" provides a frontline report for the morning of January 17, 2025: The report indicates continued positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia front, intense fighting in the Donetsk front with Russian advances towards Novoocheretovatoe and Vremivka, ongoing battles in the Chasiv Yar direction, and continued fighting in the Kursk region.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone in the Kursk region.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
Video evidence: shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Video evidence: shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
Video evidence: shows Russian paratroopers capturing the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) and establishing a flag in the city.
New: A report from "Сливочный каприз" details active combat operations in the area of Sudzha on 2025-01-16, with a Ukrainian attack on the Viktorivka - Nikolsky line.
New: A report from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" details the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of 2025-01-17. Key points include:
New: Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha on 2025-01-17.
New: A new message from the Telegram channel "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of the morning of January 18. The message states that there have been no changes along the front line. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trying to increase their personnel on positions under their control in order to hold them and stop the advance of Russian troops. In areas where Ukrainian forces are losing positions, attempts are being made to send in reserves with equipment, but these attempts are reportedly unsuccessful in 90% of cases. Ukrainian forces are also reportedly continuing to mine all known routes of advance for Russian equipment and assault groups using octocopters. The message also notes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are continuing to engineer all positions near each settlement, indicating that the Ukrainian command intends to hold each village to the last man. The message also mentions that groups from the 73rd Special Operations Center are being used on some sections of the front, but their presence only slightly slows down the advance of Russian troops. The message concludes by stating that weather conditions, such as frequent fog and poor visibility, are causing more inconvenience for both sides, especially in conducting reconnaissance, as it becomes difficult to use drones.
From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
New: Video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region. The soldiers are from the 36th Marine Brigade, the 82nd Air Assault Brigade, and other units. They report being sent to the Kursk region with minimal training and equipment, and describe being quickly overwhelmed by Russian forces. They also express dissatisfaction with their commanders and the Ukrainian military leadership.
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and have now captured Peschanoye, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, and Yantarne. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with the Ukrainian defense reportedly collapsing. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.
Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, with the potential to impact Russian military medical capacity. The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict. The reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike
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