Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 18, 2025, 03:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with the most intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk region. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. They have captured key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, along with the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination with the establishment of a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In the Velyka Novosilka area, actions to encircle the enemy garrison continue, with the zone of control expanding near Neskuchnoye and battles ongoing in the area of Novy Komar. The last road supplying Velyka Novosilka is practically under Russian control, and Russian forces are completing the defeat of the enemy in Vremivka, forming a cauldron around Velyka Novosilka.

A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds. Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys". There are new reports of drone attacks on a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Reports indicate drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft are reported in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions. Ukrainian forces report destroying 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaging a cannon using drones. They also successfully targeted a Russian "Buk" air defense system with a HIMARS system. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia."
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. A video from the brigade details the circumstances of their capture, including allegations of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repulse the enemy's attempts to advance deep into Ukrainian territory, inflicting fire damage on them. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas. On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. The enemy launched air strikes with KABs on Kramatorsk, Ivanopillia, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Petrivka. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 41 enemy assaults. Six more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 340 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times. The enemy hit Piatykhatky with NARs.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
New video evidence from the "Dnevnik Desantnika" Telegram channel: shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
New video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel: shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian military equipment near Pokrovsk, including a German Leopard tank, an American M119 howitzer, and a mortar.
"Z committee + map of the SVO" reports significant territorial gains for Russian forces on January 16, 2025: The report claims a total gain of 13.82 km² in the "Zone of SVO", with specific advances in Kotlyno, Uspenivka, Shevchenko, Yantarne, Sukhyi Yaly, Vremivka, and Novosilka.
"WarGonzo" provides a frontline report for the morning of January 17, 2025: The report indicates continued positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia front, intense fighting in the Donetsk front with Russian advances towards Novoocheretovatoe and Vremivka, ongoing battles in the Chasiv Yar direction, and continued fighting in the Kursk region.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km².
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost 90 EW stations in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.
New video evidence from the "Dnevnik Desantnika" Telegram channel: shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
New video evidence from the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel: shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian military equipment near Pokrovsk, including a German Leopard tank, an American M119 howitzer, and a mortar.
"Z committee + map of the SVO" reports significant territorial gains for Russian forces on January 16, 2025: The report claims a total gain of 13.82 km² in the "Zone of SVO", with specific advances in Kotlyno, Uspenivka, Shevchenko, Yantarne, Sukhyi Yaly, Vremivka, and Novosilka.
"WarGonzo" provides a frontline report for the morning of January 17, 2025: The report indicates continued positional battles in the Zaporizhzhia front, intense fighting in the Donetsk front with Russian advances towards Novoocheretovatoe and Vremivka, ongoing battles in the Chasiv Yar direction, and continued fighting in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are making progress in Ivanovka and are attempting to capture heights near Terny. They are also storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.
New: TASS reports that Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka in the LPR.
New: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports that on the Krasnolimansk direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division continues to advance, expanding its bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River. The report highlights the efforts to isolate the combat area, preventing Ukrainian forces from rotating troops and delivering supplies.
New: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Russian Seizure of Ukrainian Lands: Russian authorities have conducted an "inventory" of lands in the temporarily occupied territories of the Luhansk region, resulting in the seizure of at least 18,000 hectares of land from Ukrainian owners who did not obtain Russian passports. This action further solidifies Russian control over the region and adds to the displacement and dispossession of Ukrainian citizens.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The oil depot has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
40 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region overnight.
Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Rostov region overnight.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv and other regions due to the threat of drone and missile attacks.
Two Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over the Belgorod region, and one over the Tambov region.
Russian forces report shooting down two Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Tambov region.
Serial production of the "Knyaz Vandal" drone with a thermal imager has reportedly been launched in Russia.
Explosions were heard in Kharkiv, likely outside the city.
Power outages are likely to occur.
Air raid alert is active across all of Ukraine.
7 TU-22M3 and 6 TU-95ms bombers are in the air. X-22 missiles are flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region. There is also a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions.
Some TU-22M3 bombers have begun landing at the Dyagilevo airbase.
There is an increased threat to Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area, expected to reach Ukrainian territory around 06:50 UTC.
Drone Attack on Almetyevsk: Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
27 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down overnight: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down over four regions of the Russian Federation during the night.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the all-clear for the threat of attack drones.
New: "Tsaplienko_Ukraine" reports on the aftermath of a drone attack in the Kyiv region: A 12-year-old boy was injured, and a fire broke out in a cafe-shop and an attached boiler room.
New: "Colonelcassad" reports on a night hunt by Russian drone operators: An FPV drone reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian vehicle.
Increased Drone Activity in Kyiv and Surrounding Areas: Multiple reports indicate a significant increase in drone activity around Kyiv, Boryspil, Brovary, and Vyshhorod. Ukrainian air defense systems are actively engaging these drones. The Ukrainian Air Force has issued warnings for Kyiv, Boryspil, and Brovary due to the threat of hostile drones. One drone is confirmed to be flying past Boryspil towards Kyiv, another is approaching Brovary, and a third is flying towards Vyshhorod.
Drone Threat in Vinnytsia Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force has also issued a warning for Vinnytsia Oblast due to the threat of hostile drones approaching from the northwest.
Air Defense Activity in Kyiv: Reports of loud explosions and air defense activity in Kyiv.
Drone Shootdowns in Tula Oblast: Russian air defense forces and electronic warfare systems reportedly destroyed five more drones in the Tula region. This adds to the earlier reports of 16 and then 17 drones shot down over the region, indicating a sustained and intense drone attack on the area. The open fire at a fuel and lubricant storage facility in the region has been extinguished.
Rivne Oblast Under Threat: The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a new warning for Rivne Oblast due to the threat of hostile drones approaching from the northwest.
New: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. The Kyiv City Military Administration (KMVA) confirms that air defense systems are operating in Kyiv.
New: One drone has reportedly been shot down near Kyiv, while another is flying towards Vasylkiv.
New: Video evidence shows drones from the "South" group targeting and destroying Ukrainian infantry.
New: Ukrainian military expert Andriy Marochko claims that Ukrainian forces are shelling civilians near Kreminna out of desperation.
New: The mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, reports that air defense forces are operating in the Obolon district of Kyiv, targeting enemy drones.
New: The "yellow" threat level in the Lipetsk region has been lifted.
New: Explosions were heard in Kyiv.

Missile Attacks

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
A missile was reported in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, moving northwest.
Missiles from the Belgorod region are heading towards Kharkiv.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
A high-speed target is reported in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction.
There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
A high-speed target is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving southwest.
A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
Pryluki is under threat.
Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
Missiles are flying from the temporarily occupied territories in the Kherson region towards the northwest.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying through the Beryslav district towards the Mykolaiv region, likely in the direction of Novyi Buh/Kazanka and further into the Kirovohrad region.
A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
A cruise missile (KR) is reported from the north of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
New: A group of Kalibr missiles is heading towards Zelenodolsk. The group is also being targeted.
New: Other missiles are currently passing over Kazanka into the Kirovohrad region.
New: Missiles are reported to be heading towards or passing over Konotop.
New: Additional Kalibr missiles have entered the Beryslav district, moving towards Bereznehuvate.
New: Missiles from TU-95ms are crossing the border of the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, heading towards the Poltava region. There are up to 10 of these missiles.
New: Several missiles are near Kropyvnytskyi, heading west towards the Cherkasy/Vinnytsia regions.
New: A pair of missiles are passing through Bereznehuvate towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, with the possibility of turning towards Zelenodolsk.
New: The main group of missiles from the Chernihiv and Sumy regions is moving towards the Myrhorod district of the Poltava region.
New: Myrhorod is under threat from a missile approaching from the north.
New: Several Kalibr missiles are west of Kropyvnytskyi, heading towards or passing over Uman.
New: The main group of missiles from the north of the Poltava region is heading southwest towards the Cherkasy region.
New: A pair of Kalibr missiles is passing over Kazanka and entering the Kirovohrad region. Another pair has entered the Beryslav district and is following the same course, passing through Bereznehuvate towards Kazanka.
New: Russia is carrying out a massive missile attack on Ukraine. X-101/555, X-22, and Kalibr missiles are being used. A MiG-31K, a Kinzhal missile carrier, is also airborne.
New: The first missiles, along with Kalibr missiles, are in the Bila Tserkva district of the Kyiv region. The Kalibr missiles are heading northwest towards the Zhytomyr region. The missiles from the TU-95ms are flying through Pereiaslav towards Bila Tserkva.
New: A pair of cruise missiles is heading towards or passing over Cherkasy.
New: A missile is heading towards Chernihiv.
New: Several missiles are heading towards or passing over Bila Tserkva.
New: A group of cruise missiles (KR) is in the Kirovohrad region, heading north/west.
New: A pair of Kalibr missiles from the Bila Tserkva district is entering the Vinnytsia region. The main group of missiles is flying through the Bila Tserkva district and the Cherkasy region, heading towards the Vinnytsia region. Another pair of Kalibr missiles is passing through the Kirovohrad region into the Cherkasy region.
New: A missile was reported to have been shot down. The type of missile is being clarified.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
New: The main group of missiles is near Bila Tserkva, heading west.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the Cherkasy region, heading west.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are on the south of the Kyiv region, heading west.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Vinnytsia from the south of the Kyiv region.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are heading towards Zhytomyr from the southeast.
New: Cruise missiles (KR) are in the south of the Kyiv region, continuing to move towards the Vinnytsia region.
New: 5 TU-22M3 bombers are in the Engels area, and 3 TU-22M3 bombers are also in that area. So far, there is no threat from them, as the aircraft (probably all or most of them) have already fired their missiles.
New: The main group of missiles is on the border of the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions, heading west. A few more Kalibr missiles are heading towards or passing over Uman. A couple of Kalibr missiles are east of Vinnytsia, heading southwest.

Geopolitical Developments

The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
Reports indicate a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a potential face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
NATO is planning large-scale exercises on its eastern flank, named "Steadfast Dart," from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries.
The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
Russia is reportedly studying the possibility of implementing atomic projects in Vietnam and supplying LNG.
Russia is reportedly ready to share its experience in cybersecurity and AI with Vietnam.
Mishustin has invited Vietnamese investors to Russia.
The suspended president of South Korea has reportedly been arrested.
Teenagers who engaged in a fight at an educational institution in Khabarovsk Krai have reportedly been held administratively liable.
The Prime Minister of Vietnam has called on businesses to intensify bilateral cooperation between Hanoi and Moscow.
New: South Korea will offer Ukraine to take captured soldiers from the DPRK, if the DPRK citizens themselves express the corresponding desire.
New: The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism. They cite the impact of sanctions on Russia's energy sector, including the halting of tankers worldwide.
New: The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses," stating that "We have a proverb about a horse that buries itself even more when it dies. We saw this in the example of US President Joe Biden's decisions when he decided to pardon his son and allowed the use of missiles [for strikes deep into Russia]. This is how Zelensky behaves now. He understands that this situation will not last long."
New: The Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" of businessman Rinat Akhmetov may completely stop after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine management, according to a political technologist who previously worked in Ukraine.
New: Biden stated that the US now faces a "technical-industrial complex," similar to the military-industrial complex that Eisenhower warned about.
New: Biden claimed that the US needs to amend its constitution to punish errant presidents.
New: Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko, in an interview with TASS.
New: Russia has repatriated 2,466 soldiers from Ukrainian-controlled territory since the beginning of the special operation, as a result of 30 exchanges. This follows from TASS calculations based on data from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Germany criticized the government of Scholz for blocking additional aid to Ukraine.

Other Developments

3 drones were reportedly destroyed over Russia during the night.
There is one enemy ship in the Black Sea, which is a carrier of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 4 missiles. There are no enemy ships in the Azov Sea. In the Mediterranean Sea, there are 7 enemy ships, 2 of which are carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles with a total volley of up to 22 missiles.
Elon Musk called the US Securities and Exchange Commission a "broken organization."
New: Air defense systems are actively engaging targets in the Kursk region.
New: Near Cherkasy and on the outskirts of the city, air defense systems are operating.
New: The message from "Sever.Realii": reports that a 12-year-old boy was injured by debris from a downed drone in the Kyiv region.
New: "Rybar" provides a detailed overview of the situation in the Middle East.
New: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine provides an update on the total combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022, to January 17, 2025: The report

Situation Report