Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 18, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, achieving significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The capture of Vremivka is a major development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. Russian forces continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Novosergievka. They are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Sumy and Kharkiv regions are under threat of enemy drones, with new groups detected in the northwest of Kharkiv region, heading south. There are reports of drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. Air raid alerts have been issued for Poltava and Kyiv due to hostile drone activity.

The ongoing drone attacks and the threat of further missile strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Vremivka and Neskuchne Captured: Russian forces have captured Vremivka and Neskuchne, cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka by avoiding direct urban combat and focusing on improving their positions north and south of Novy Komar.
Toretsk Situation Critical: Russian forces control most of Toretsk, with Ukrainian defenses under extreme pressure.
Pokrovsk Under Pressure: Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Novosergievka. Russian forces are reportedly 3 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are advancing towards Novosergievka and supporting their advance in Uspenivka. They have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezugla claims that Russian forces have entered Pokrovsk. However, this claim is disputed by other Ukrainian sources, including the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia," which states that fierce battles are ongoing on the outskirts but denies Russian presence in the city.
Chasiv Yar: A refractory plant in Chasiv Yar has reportedly been cleared by Russian airborne forces. The southern part of Chasiv Yar is under the control of the 2nd Battalion of the 78th "North-Akhmat" Regiment.
New Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces successfully stormed a Russian position near Kurakhove and captured several Russian soldiers. The operation was carried out by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tauride Brigade.
Other Advances: Russian forces report advances near Lozova, Zahryzove, and Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. An attack near Malynivka resulted in an advance exceeding 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Continued Fighting: Battles are ongoing across the entire Dnipropetrovsk direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Enemy Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces are reported to be counterattacking from Sribne.
Continued Fighting in Dachnoye: There are ongoing battles in the southeastern part of Dachnoye.
Attacks Near Yantarnoye: Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian strongholds along the road to Yantarnoye.
Attempted Breakthrough Near Zelenovka: Russian forces are attempting to break through towards Ulakly northeast of Zelenovka.
Battles Near Petropavlovka and Andreyevka: There are fierce battles for strongholds south of Petropavlovka and in the direction of Andreyevka.
Battles for Road Junction and Surrounding Areas: Fighting continues for control of a road junction, for Vodyanoye-2, and in the areas of Zelenoye Pole and Tarasovka.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses.
Russian Breakthrough: A 10-kilometer breakthrough has been achieved by Russian forces, with advances near Sudzha.
Positional Fighting: Fighting continues near Sudzha and Uspenovka.
Repelled Assault: Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault near Viktorivka.
New Issues within Russian Military: Reports of internal conflict and corruption within the Russian military, with allegations of commanders from the 40th Marine Brigade extorting money from soldiers and using physical violence.
Fighting Near Glubokoye: A video released by the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
Russian forces are expanding their control zone along the Svatove-Kupyansk highway by up to 400 meters.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanivka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.
Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread activity reported.
Attacks Inside Russia: Confirmed drone attacks on oil depots and industrial enterprises in Voronezh, Almetyevsk, and Saratov. A new attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region has been reported. The facility is confirmed to be an oil depot. A drone attack has also been reported in the Smolensk region of Russia. A new attack on an oil depot in the Tula region of Russia has been confirmed.
Air Defense Operations: Reports of air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast and an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv due to hostile drone activity.
New Drone Threats: New groups of hostile drones detected in the northwest of Kharkiv region, heading south. Reports of drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. An air raid alert has been issued for Poltava due to hostile drone activity. New groups of drones have been detected in the northeast of the Kharkiv region, moving southwest. Drone threats have also been reported in the Kirovohrad and Cherkasy regions. There is a drone threat to Kherson from the northeast.
Drone Threats to Cities: Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Poltava, and Myrhorod. Drone threats have been reported for Kremenchuk and Kharkiv. Drone threats have been reported for Kyiv. A drone is confirmed to be heading in the direction of Kharkiv city from the northwest. A drone is confirmed to be heading in the direction of Sumy city from the northwest. New groups of hostile drones detected on the northeast of Sumy region, course - southwest. Drone threats have been reported for Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad region. Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Myrhorod, Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv. Ukrainian forces report shooting down 3 Russian Zala reconnaissance drones. A Ukrainian drone reportedly shot down an enemy drone using a dropped munition, a claimed first in the history of warfare.
New Drone Movements: New groups of hostile drones were detected on the northeast of Sumy region, course - southwest. Drone threats have been reported for Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad region. Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Myrhorod, Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. One drone is confirmed to be moving from Mykolaiv Oblast to the north of Odesa Oblast. One drone is confirmed to be moving from Kyiv Oblast into Zhytomyr Oblast. Three drones are confirmed to be north of Cherkasy. One drone is confirmed to be west of Kharkiv. One drone is confirmed to be in the north of Poltava Oblast, moving west.
Romanian Reports: The Romanian Ministry of Defense reported finding two Russian drones that crashed on Romanian territory. One crash site is located between Chatalchioi and Tudor-Vladimirescu, about 60 km from the Ukrainian-Romanian border, and the second is south of Kiliya-Veke, about 1 km from the border with Ukraine.
Drone Attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.

Missile Attacks

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
Pryluki is under threat.
Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
A cruise missile (KR) is reported from the north of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
Ukrainian forces report that on the night of January 17, 2025, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
An air raid alert is in effect for Kryvyi Rih.
Three deaths and three injuries have been reported in Kryvyi Rih due to the Russian missile strikes. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. The number of casualties has been updated to four dead and three wounded in Kryvyi Rih.
Mariupol is under missile threat.

Geopolitical Developments

Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, including cooperation in defense and security. The agreement does not include a clause on mutual defense, but it does prohibit helping an aggressor who attacks one of the countries.
The EU will not lift sanctions against Russia.
The US threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
The UN Security Council met regarding Ukraine, underscoring continued international attention.
New Russian Leadership Plans: Some representatives of the Russian leadership are planning to interfere in the elections that are to be held in Germany.
US Funding for Drone Production: The US has reportedly invested $1.5 billion in drone production in Ukraine, according to the New York Times.
Zelensky's Focus on Domestic Weapon Production: President Zelensky announced a focus on increasing domestic production of drones, missiles, and other technological components for the military.
Moldova Energy Crisis: Moldova plans to use the EU Civil Protection Mechanism due to the energy crisis.
Diplomatic: The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount. He also criticized Germany and Japan.
New Embassy: The opening of the Albanian embassy in Kyiv is a significant diplomatic development.
Sanctions: Ten EU countries, including the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland, have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports. The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism. They cite the impact of sanctions on Russia's energy sector, including the halting of tankers worldwide.
Strategic Partnership: The Armenian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State will sign a document on strategic partnership in Washington.
Trade: Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on US imports if Trump follows through on his threats, according to the Canadian Foreign Minister.
Zelensky's Response to Fico: President Zelensky responded to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's proposal to meet in Davos with a trolling comment, stating that Fico "might go to Davos but end up in Sochi." Zelensky added, "We don't know who buys him tickets, as he constantly misses his destinations."
Nigeria Joins BRICS: Nigeria has become a partner country of BRICS, according to the Brazilian Foreign Ministry.
Proposed Ukrainian Law on Media: A proposed Ukrainian law aims to regulate online media, including Telegram channels, by requiring them to remove negative comments about officials within three days. This has significant implications for freedom of speech and could be used to suppress dissent. The law could also be used to control the narrative surrounding the conflict and limit criticism of the government's actions.
Israeli-Hamas Agreement: The Israeli government has approved an agreement for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. This is a significant development in the Middle East conflict and could have implications for regional stability. The agreement could potentially reduce tensions and allow for humanitarian aid to reach Gaza. However, it remains to be seen whether the agreement will be fully implemented and whether it will lead to a lasting peace. The Israeli government has approved an agreement with Hamas on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages.

Updated Assessment

The military situation remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of Vremivka, Neskuchne, and the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka represent significant Russian tactical victories. The intensified drone warfare, particularly the attacks deep inside Russia, demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike strategic targets. The persistent air threat across Ukraine and the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the intensity of the conflict. The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is a major geopolitical development with potential ramifications for the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations indicate a high tempo of strikes. The potential for Russian interference in German elections adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The confirmation of Ukrainian losses in Vremivka and Neskuchne, along with the acknowledgment of the crisis in Velyka Novosilka, reinforces the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The criticism of Ukrainian command in the area suggests potential issues with leadership and strategy. The new report of a drone attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region of Russia indicates that Ukraine is continuing to target industrial facilities deep inside Russia. The new reports of drone threats in multiple regions of Ukraine indicate that Russia is continuing to use drones to target Ukrainian infrastructure and military assets. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage. The new reports of drone attacks in Romania and the Smolensk region of Russia add another dimension to the conflict, highlighting the expanding geographical scope of the drone warfare. The discovery of two Russian drone crash sites in Romania is particularly significant, as it involves a NATO member state. This could potentially lead to increased tensions between Russia and NATO, and may prompt Romania to enhance its air defense capabilities. The involvement of a NATO member state also raises questions about the effectiveness of Russia's drone operations and their ability to accurately target locations within Ukraine. The drone attack in the Smolensk region, while less geopolitically significant than the Romanian incidents, still demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. This could have implications for Russia's air defense strategies and may force them to redeploy resources to protect key locations further from the front lines. The announcement of an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region and the reported movement of drones in various regions of Ukraine indicate that the drone threat remains high. Ukrainian air defenses are likely to be heavily engaged in countering these threats, and the civilian population in affected areas will need to remain vigilant. The new message about the start of the assault on Pokrovsk indicates a significant escalation in the Donetsk region. Pokrovsk is a key city, and its capture would be a major victory for Russian forces. This development suggests that the fighting in the Donetsk region is likely to intensify in the coming days and weeks. Ukrainian forces will need to reinforce their defenses in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas to prevent further Russian advances. The outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk could have a significant impact on the overall course of the war in the Donetsk region. The report from the commander of the "Azov" brigade, Denis Prokopenko, highlights critical issues with the fortification efforts on the front lines. His statement that there is a lack of "brains and skills" for proper fortification, even when resources are available, points to a deeper problem of training, organization, and possibly leadership within the Ukrainian forces. The offer to conduct training sessions based on "Azov's" own experience suggests a recognition of this gap and a willingness to share expertise. This situation could significantly impact the Ukrainian defense capabilities, especially in the Lyman and Toretsk directions where "Azov" has been operating. The lack of proper fortifications could make Ukrainian positions more vulnerable to Russian attacks and could lead to increased casualties and loss of territory. The new information regarding drone movements indicates an increase in drone activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses will need to remain vigilant and prioritize targets based on their potential threat. The confirmation of drones moving towards Kharkiv and Sumy cities is particularly concerning, as these are major urban centers. The continued use of drones by both sides highlights the importance of this technology in the conflict and the need for effective countermeasures. The denial by the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" regarding Russian troops entering Pokrovsk contradicts earlier reports and creates uncertainty about the situation on the ground. This highlights the fog of war and the difficulty in obtaining accurate information from conflict zones. However, the acknowledgment of fierce battles on the outskirts of Pokrovsk confirms that the city remains a key objective for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces will need to continue reinforcing their defenses and repelling Russian advances to prevent the city from falling. The declaration of a "Yellow Level 'Air Danger'" across the entire Lipetsk Oblast signifies a heightened threat perception from aerial attacks, likely due to drone activity. This requires immediate defensive actions, including the deployment of air defense systems and potentially the grounding of vulnerable aircraft. The increased threat level will likely impact civilian activities and may lead to restrictions on movement and gatherings. The fact that two more Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Bryansk region confirms ongoing Ukrainian attempts to strike targets within Russian territory. It also highlights the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in intercepting these threats. The continued drone attacks suggest a Ukrainian strategy of trying to stretch Russian air defense resources and potentially target military or industrial sites. The US Treasury's announcement of measures to prevent a default starting January 21st is a significant development with potential global economic implications. While not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, it could impact the US's ability to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine. A US default, or even the threat of one, could weaken the US dollar, disrupt financial markets, and potentially reduce the resources available for foreign assistance. The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament's comparison of Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" is a significant diplomatic statement. It reflects a critical view of the current leadership in the US and Ukraine, and suggests a belief that their policies are failing. The comment about Biden "allowing the use of missiles [for strikes deep into Russia]" is particularly noteworthy, as it implies a criticism of the US's increasing involvement in the conflict. This statement could further strain relations between Slovakia and the US and Ukraine, and may signal a shift in Slovakia's stance on the conflict.

Changes from Previous Situation

New Drone Threats: New groups of hostile drones detected in the southeast of Chernihiv region, course - northeast; new drones detected in the northwest of Kharkiv region, course - south; drones on the west of Kyiv region, course - northwest.
New Drone Attacks: Russians report a drone attack on an oil depot in the Tula region of Russia.
Air Defenses Active: Seven drones were shot down over the Kaluga region of Russia.
Air Raid Alert Lifted: The air raid alert for Kyiv has been lifted.

The new messages indicate an intensification of drone activity, particularly with new threats detected in the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Kyiv regions. The reported drone attack on an oil depot in the Tula region of Russia, if confirmed, represents another successful Ukrainian strike deep inside Russian territory. The activation of air defenses in the Kaluga region and the shooting down of seven drones highlight the ongoing efforts to counter these threats. The lifting of the air raid alert for Kyiv suggests that the immediate threat in that area has passed, but the overall situation remains tense due to the widespread drone activity.

The overall strategic assessment remains largely unchanged, but the new information underscores the increasing tempo of drone warfare and the persistent threat to both Ukrainian and Russian territories. The situation on the ground remains fluid, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces adapting their tactics and strategies in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The increased use of drones and the targeting of critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, highlight the expanding scope of the conflict and its potential impact on civilian populations. The international dimension of the conflict is also evident, with continued support for Ukraine from Western allies and ongoing diplomatic efforts to address the crisis.

Situation Report