Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 17th, 2025

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, achieving significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The capture of Vremivka is a major development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. Pro-Russian sources confirm the loss of Neskuchne and Vremivka, with increasing criticism directed at the Ukrainian command in the area. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city.

Russian forces continue their advance towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Novosergievka. They are reportedly within 3 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and have cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka are ongoing, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.

In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Sumy and Kharkiv regions are under threat of enemy drones, with new groups detected in the northwest of Kharkiv region, heading south. There are reports of drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. Air raid alerts have been issued for Poltava due to hostile drone activity. A new attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region of Russia has been reported, with the facility confirmed to be an oil depot. Reports of drone attacks on oil refineries in Almetyevsk and Kazan have also been confirmed. Two crash sites of drones were found in Romania. Drone attacks have also been reported in the Smolensk region of Russia.

The ongoing drone attacks and the threat of further missile strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict. New reports indicate repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih, resulting in four deaths and three injuries.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Vremivka and Neskuchne Captured: Russian forces have captured Vremivka and Neskuchne, cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka. Pro-Russian sources confirm the loss and acknowledge the developing crisis for Ukrainian forces in the area. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka by avoiding direct urban combat and focusing on improving their positions north and south of Novy Komar.
Toretsk Situation Critical: Russian forces control most of Toretsk, with Ukrainian defenses under extreme pressure. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire.
Pokrovsk Under Pressure: Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne, Kotlyne, and Novosergievka. Russian forces are reportedly 3 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are advancing towards Novosergievka and supporting their advance in Uspenivka. They have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. A new message indicates a reported assault on Pokrovsk.
Chasiv Yar: A refractory plant in Chasiv Yar has reportedly been cleared by Russian airborne forces. The southern part of Chasiv Yar is under the control of the 2nd Battalion of the 78th "North-Akhmat" Regiment.
New Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces successfully stormed a Russian position near Kurakhove and captured several Russian soldiers. The operation was carried out by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tauride Brigade.
Other Advances: Russian forces report advances near Lozova, Zahryzove, and Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. An attack near Malynivka resulted in an advance exceeding 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Video Evidence: Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions in Vremivka. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier destroying a group of six Ukrainian soldiers with an explosive dropped from a drone. Video evidence shows Russian artillery destroying Ukrainian positions west of Kurakhove. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions west of Kurakhove. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian T-80 tank with a drone near Pokrovsk.
Continued Fighting: Battles are ongoing across the entire Dnipropetrovsk direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Enemy Counterattacks: Ukrainian forces are reported to be counterattacking from Sribne.
Continued Fighting in Dachnoye: There are ongoing battles in the southeastern part of Dachnoye.
Attacks Near Yantarnoye: Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian strongholds along the road to Yantarnoye.
Attempted Breakthrough Near Zelenovka: Russian forces are attempting to break through towards Ulakly northeast of Zelenovka.
Battles Near Petropavlovka and Andreyevka: There are fierce battles for strongholds south of Petropavlovka and in the direction of Andreyevka.
Battles for Road Junction and Surrounding Areas: Fighting continues for control of a road junction, for Vodyanoye-2, and in the areas of Zelenoye Pole and Tarasovka.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses.
Russian Breakthrough: A 10-kilometer breakthrough has been achieved by Russian forces, with advances near Sudzha.
Positional Fighting: Fighting continues near Sudzha and Uspenovka.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in the Kursk region. Video evidence of Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions with drones in the Kursk region highlights the ongoing use of drone warfare in this conflict. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
Helicopter Strike: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold. A Russian Ka-52M helicopter conducted strikes on Ukrainian armor and personnel in the Kursk border area.
Repelled Assault: Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault near Viktorivka.
New Issues within Russian Military: Reports of internal conflict and corruption within the Russian military, with allegations of commanders from the 40th Marine Brigade extorting money from soldiers and using physical violence.
New Video Evidence: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows the destruction of Ukrainian equipment by Russian forces, including a 155-mm self-propelled artillery "Bogdana", an American M-777 artillery system, a Finnish armored personnel carrier Sisu XA-180, and an American self-propelled artillery M109.
Fighting Near Glubokoye: A video released by the "Black Swan" unit of the 255th Assault Battalion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shows fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
Russian forces are expanding their control zone along the Svatove-Kupyansk highway by up to 400 meters.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanivka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.
Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread activity reported.
Attacks Inside Russia: Confirmed drone attacks on oil depots and industrial enterprises in Voronezh, Almetyevsk, and Saratov. A new attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region has been reported. The facility is confirmed to be an oil depot. A drone attack has also been reported in the Smolensk region of Russia.
Air Defense Operations: Reports of air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast and an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
New Drone Threats: New groups of hostile drones detected in the northwest of Kharkiv region, heading south. Reports of drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. An air raid alert has been issued for Poltava due to hostile drone activity. New groups of drones have been detected in the northeast of the Kharkiv region, moving southwest. Drone threats have also been reported in the Kirovohrad and Cherkasy regions.
Drone Threats to Cities: Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Poltava, and Myrhorod. Drone threats have been reported for Kremenchuk and Kharkiv.
Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk. Video evidence shows Russian forces successfully capturing Ukrainian fortifications near Pokrovsk.
Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv. Ukrainian forces report shooting down 3 Russian Zala reconnaissance drones. A Ukrainian drone reportedly shot down an enemy drone using a dropped munition, a claimed first in the history of warfare.
New Drone Movements: New groups of hostile drones were detected on the northeast of Sumy region, course - southwest. Drone threats have been reported for Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad region. Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Myrhorod, Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
Romanian Reports: The Romanian Ministry of Defense reported finding two Russian drones that crashed on Romanian territory. One crash site is located between Chatalchioi and Tudor-Vladimirescu, about 60 km from the Ukrainian-Romanian border, and the second is south of Kiliya-Veke, about 1 km from the border with Ukraine.

Missile Attacks

The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
Pryluki is under threat.
Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.
A group of missiles is heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region.
A group of missiles is reported in the north of the Sumy region, moving south.
Cruise missiles have been reported via Shostka towards Konotop, likely from Tu-95ms.
A cruise missile (KR) is reported from the north of the Sumy region heading towards the Chernihiv region.
Ukrainian forces report that on the night of January 17, 2025, Russian forces attacked Ukraine with two "Iskander-M" ballistic missiles.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
An air raid alert is in effect for Kryvyi Rih.
Three deaths and three injuries have been reported in Kryvyi Rih due to the Russian missile strikes. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. The number of casualties has been updated to four dead and three wounded in Kryvyi Rih.
Mariupol under missile threat.

Geopolitical Developments

Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, including cooperation in defense and security. The agreement does not include a clause on mutual defense, but it does prohibit helping an aggressor who attacks one of the countries.
The EU will not lift sanctions against Russia.
The US threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
The UN Security Council met regarding Ukraine, underscoring continued international attention.
New Russian Leadership Plans: Some representatives of the Russian leadership are planning to interfere in the elections that are to be held in Germany.
US Funding for Drone Production: The US has reportedly invested $1.5 billion in drone production in Ukraine, according to the New York Times.
Zelensky's Focus on Domestic Weapon Production: President Zelensky announced a focus on increasing domestic production of drones, missiles, and other technological components for the military.
Moldova Energy Crisis: Moldova plans to use the EU Civil Protection Mechanism due to the energy crisis.
Diplomatic: The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount. He also criticized Germany and Japan.
New Embassy: The opening of the Albanian embassy in Kyiv is a significant diplomatic development.
Sanctions: Ten EU countries, including the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland, have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports.
Strategic Partnership: The Armenian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State will sign a document on strategic partnership in Washington.
Trade: Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on US imports if Trump follows through on his threats, according to the Canadian Foreign Minister.
Zelensky's Response to Fico: President Zelensky responded to Slovak Prime Minister Fico's proposal to meet in Davos with a trolling comment, stating that Fico "might go to Davos but end up in Sochi." Zelensky added, "We don't know who buys him tickets, as he constantly misses his destinations."

Updated Assessment

The military situation remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The capture of Vremivka, Neskuchne, and the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka represent significant Russian tactical victories. The intensified drone warfare, particularly the attacks deep inside Russia, demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike strategic targets. The persistent air threat across Ukraine and the ongoing fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions highlight the intensity of the conflict. The signing of the strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran is a major geopolitical development with potential ramifications for the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations indicate a high tempo of strikes. The potential for Russian interference in German elections adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The confirmation of Ukrainian losses in Vremivka and Neskuchne, along with the acknowledgment of the crisis in Velyka Novosilka, reinforces the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region. The criticism of Ukrainian command in the area suggests potential issues with leadership and strategy. The new report of a drone attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region of Russia indicates that Ukraine is continuing to target industrial facilities deep inside Russia. The new reports of drone threats in multiple regions of Ukraine indicate that Russia is continuing to use drones to target Ukrainian infrastructure and military assets. The new messages confirm continued and intensified Russian missile attacks, specifically targeting Kryvyi Rih with repeated ballistic missile launches. The attacks damaged an educational institution and residential buildings. This development underscores the persistent threat to Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, even those located relatively far from the front lines. The air raid alert in effect for Kryvyi Rih indicates the imminent danger and the need for the civilian population to take shelter. The targeting of a city like Kryvyi Rih, a major industrial center, could have significant economic and strategic implications, potentially disrupting industrial production and impacting Ukraine's overall war effort. The repeated nature of the attacks suggests a deliberate attempt to overwhelm air defenses and inflict maximum damage. The new reports of drone attacks in Romania and the Smolensk region of Russia add another dimension to the conflict, highlighting the expanding geographical scope of the drone warfare. The discovery of two Russian drone crash sites in Romania is particularly significant, as it involves a NATO member state. This could potentially lead to increased tensions between Russia and NATO, and may prompt Romania to enhance its air defense capabilities. The involvement of a NATO member state also raises questions about the effectiveness of Russia's drone operations and their ability to accurately target locations within Ukraine. The drone attack in the Smolensk region, while less geopolitically significant than the Romanian incidents, still demonstrates Ukraine's capability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. This could have implications for Russia's air defense strategies and may force them to redeploy resources to protect key locations further from the front lines. The announcement of an air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region and the reported movement of drones in various regions of Ukraine indicate that the drone threat remains high. Ukrainian air defenses are likely to be heavily engaged in countering these threats, and the civilian population in affected areas will need to remain vigilant. The new message about the start of the assault on Pokrovsk indicates a significant escalation in the Donetsk region. Pokrovsk is a key city, and its capture would be a major victory for Russian forces. This development suggests that the fighting in the Donetsk region is likely to intensify in the coming days and weeks. Ukrainian forces will need to reinforce their defenses in Pokrovsk and the surrounding areas to prevent further Russian advances. The outcome of the battle for Pokrovsk could have a significant impact on the overall course of the war in the Donetsk region. The report from the commander of the "Azov" brigade, Denis Prokopenko, highlights critical issues with the fortification efforts on the front lines. His statement that there is a lack of "brains and skills" for proper fortification, even when resources are available, points to a deeper problem of training, organization, and possibly leadership within the Ukrainian forces. The offer to conduct training sessions based on "Azov's" own experience suggests a recognition of this gap and a willingness to share expertise. This situation could significantly impact the Ukrainian defense capabilities, especially in the Lyman and Toretsk directions where "Azov" has been operating. The lack of proper fortifications could make Ukrainian positions more vulnerable to Russian attacks and could lead to increased casualties and loss of territory.

Changes from Previous Situation

Confirmation of Ukrainian Losses: Pro-Russian sources confirm the loss of Neskuchne and Vremivka, highlighting the crisis for Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka.
Capture of Vremivka: Confirmed capture of Vremivka by Russian forces.
New Russian Advances: Advances near Lozova, Zahryzove, and Zelenyi Hai. New advances reported in the Dnipropetrovsk and Krasnoarmiisk directions. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro.
New Drone Attacks: Attacks on oil depots and industrial enterprises in Voronezh, Almetyevsk, and Saratov. New attack on an industrial facility in the Kaluga region. The facility is confirmed to be an oil depot. Drone attack reported in the Smolensk region of Russia.
New Geopolitical Developments: Russia-Iran strategic partnership agreement, US warning to China, and reports of Russian plans to interfere in German elections. Moldova's plan to use the EU Civil Protection Mechanism due to the energy crisis.
New Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces successfully stormed a Russian position near Kurakhove.
New Issues within Russian Military: Reports of extortion and violence by Russian commanders.
New Video Evidence: Multiple new videos showing drone attacks, hand-to-hand combat, and Russian losses. Video evidence of the destruction of Ukrainian equipment in the Kursk region. Video evidence of a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar being cleared by Russian airborne forces. Video evidence of fighting near Glubokoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian T-80 tank with a drone near Pokrovsk.
New Drone Threats: New groups of hostile drones detected in the northwest and northeast of Kharkiv region. Reports of drone attacks in Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. Air raid alert issued for Poltava. Drone threats reported for Dnipro, Poltava, and Myrhorod. Drone threats have been reported for Kremenchuk and Kharkiv. New groups of hostile drones were detected on the northeast of Sumy region. Drone threats have been reported for Kharkiv, Poltava, and Kirovohrad region. Drone threats have been reported for Dnipro, Myrhorod, Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
US Investment in Ukrainian Drone Production: Reports of a $1.5 billion US investment in drone production in Ukraine.
Zelensky's Focus on Domestic Weapon Production: Announcement of a focus on increasing domestic weapon production.
Continued Fighting in Multiple Locations: Reports of continued fighting in Uspenivka, Nadezhdinka, Yasenovoye, Novoandreevka, Sribne, Dachnoye, Yantarnoye, Ulakly, Petropavlovka, Andreyevka, Vodyanoye-2, Zelenoye Pole, and Tarasovka.
Missile Attacks: Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
Casualties in Kryvyi Rih: Three deaths and three injuries reported in Kryvyi Rih due to the Russian missile strikes. The number of casualties has been updated to four dead and three wounded in Kryvyi Rih.
Diplomatic: The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount. He also criticized Germany and Japan.
New Embassy: The opening of the Albanian embassy in Kyiv is a significant diplomatic development.
Sanctions: Ten EU countries, including the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland, have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports.
Strategic Partnership: The Armenian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State will sign a document on strategic partnership in Washington.
Trade: Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on US imports if Trump follows through on his threats, according to the Canadian Foreign Minister.
Ukraine's Focus on Domestic Armament Production: President Zelensky's meeting focused on achieving independence in armaments, specifically highlighting drone production, missile programs, and technological components for the army, including robotic systems. This indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing domestic military-industrial capabilities to reduce reliance on international support and to innovate in military technology.
Expansion of Drone Warfare: The mention of expanding drone production and procurement within Ukraine underscores the increasing importance of drone warfare in the conflict. Drones are being used for reconnaissance, surveillance, and offensive operations, and enhancing domestic production capabilities will likely improve Ukraine's operational effectiveness in these areas.
Missile Program Development: The focus on the missile program suggests an intent to improve Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. This could be aimed at deterring Russian aggression and targeting critical enemy infrastructure, logistics, and command-and-control centers deep behind the front lines.
Robotic Systems: The emphasis on technological components, including robotic systems, indicates a move towards more advanced and autonomous military technologies. Robotic systems can be used for a variety of purposes, including reconnaissance, mine clearance, logistics, and potentially combat roles, reducing the risk to human soldiers.
International Partnerships: Gratitude to partners who are helping with armaments procurement and production highlights the continued importance of international support. These partnerships are crucial for technology transfer, financial assistance, and the supply of components that may not yet be domestically produced.
Strategic Autonomy: The overall focus on independence in armaments reflects a long-term strategic goal of reducing reliance on external support and ensuring Ukraine's ability to defend itself autonomously. This is particularly important given the unpredictable nature of international politics and potential shifts in support from allies.
Drone Attacks in Romania: Two crash sites of drones were found in Romania.
Drone Attack in Smolensk Region: A drone attack was reported in the Smolensk region of Russia.
Air Raid Alert in Zaporizhzhia: An air raid alert was announced in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Reported Assault on Pokrovsk: A new message indicates a reported assault on Pokrovsk.
Statement from "Azov" Commander: The commander of the "Azov" brigade, Denis Prokopenko, reported a lack of "brains and skills" for proper fortification on the front lines and offered to conduct training sessions.
Missile Threat in Mariupol: A new message indicates a missile threat in Mariupol.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to stabilize the front lines and prevent further Russian advances. Given the new report of an assault on Pokrovsk, this reinforcement is even more urgent.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to mitigate the threat posed by Russian drones, especially in areas where new drone threats have been reported, such as Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Donetsk Oblasts. Address the new drone threats in Romania and the Smolensk region.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Strengthen the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, to ensure continued operation and minimize civilian suffering. Address the new threat to industrial facilities in the Kaluga region of Russia.
Exploit Intelligence on Russian Weaknesses: Leverage intelligence on internal conflicts and corruption within the Russian military to undermine morale and operational effectiveness.
Maintain International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure military and humanitarian aid, and to maintain diplomatic pressure on Russia.
Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the intensity of the fighting and the evolving geopolitical landscape, prepare for a protracted conflict with a focus on long-term sustainability and resilience.
Address the Information Leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, in response to the confirmed attacks on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions.
Exploit Intelligence on Russian Weaknesses: Leverage intelligence on internal conflicts and corruption within the Russian military to undermine morale and operational effectiveness.
Address Logistical Challenges: Improve logistical support to frontline units, ensuring the timely delivery of ammunition, fuel, and other essential supplies.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering: Increase efforts to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, deployments, and plans, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the unpredictable nature of the conflict, develop contingency plans for potential escalation, including increased air and missile strikes, and the involvement of new actors.
Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Prioritize the defense of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih, and other major population centers.
Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Invest in and deploy advanced electronic warfare systems to counter Russian drones and disrupt their communications.
Improve Situational Awareness: Enhance real-time monitoring of the battlefield to quickly identify and respond to emerging threats.
Maintain Reserve Forces: Ensure that reserve forces are well-trained, equipped, and ready for rapid deployment to reinforce frontline units as needed.
Conduct Information Operations: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns by providing accurate and timely information to the public and international community.
Foster Civil-Military Cooperation: Strengthen cooperation between the military and civilian authorities to ensure the effective implementation of defense plans and the protection of the civilian population.
Adapt to Evolving Threats: Continuously assess the evolving nature of the conflict and adapt strategies and tactics accordingly.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are well-supplied, rested, and receive adequate medical care to maintain morale and combat effectiveness.
Conduct Regular Training: Implement regular training exercises to maintain troop readiness and proficiency in the use of new equipment and tactics.
Secure Communication Lines: Protect communication lines from cyber attacks and ensure redundant communication systems are in place.
Develop Asymmetric Warfare Capabilities: Invest in and develop asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter Russian numerical superiority.
Engage in Diplomatic Efforts: Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to seek a resolution to the conflict while maintaining a strong defense posture.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Closely monitor geopolitical developments and adjust strategies accordingly to address emerging threats and opportunities.
Harden Critical Infrastructure: Implement measures to harden critical infrastructure against physical and cyber attacks.
Develop Cyber Defense Capabilities: Enhance cyber defense capabilities to protect sensitive information and critical systems from Russian cyber attacks.
Coordinate with International Partners: Maintain close coordination with international partners to share intelligence, coordinate strategies, and secure continued support.
Plan for Long-Term Defense: Develop long-term defense plans that address the evolving nature of the threat and ensure the sustained security of Ukraine.
Exploit Enemy Weaknesses: Identify and exploit weaknesses in the enemy's logistical and command-and-control systems.
Enhance Operational Security: Implement strict operational security measures to prevent leaks of sensitive information and protect ongoing operations.
Develop Counter-Propaganda Measures: Develop and implement effective counter-propaganda measures to combat Russian disinformation and maintain public support.
Monitor Internal Threats: Monitor and address internal threats, such as sabotage, espionage, and dissent, to maintain national unity and security.
Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts

Situation Report