Archived operational intelligence briefing
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The capture of Vremivka is a significant development, effectively cutting off Ukrainian forces in Velyka Novosilka and creating a cauldron. Video evidence shows the Russian flag being raised in Vremivka, with claims that all roads around the last major stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southwest of the Donetsk People's Republic are under physical and fire control of Russian troops. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel. Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki. A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The Sumy and Kharkiv regions are under threat of enemy drones. The ongoing drone attacks and the threat of further missile strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast, along with the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicate that the tempo of strikes remains high. The new video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian positions in the Kursk region further emphasizes the importance of drone warfare in this conflict. The reported capture of Ukrainian soldiers by Russian forces in the Kursk region indicates ongoing fighting and potential intelligence gains for Russia. The new messages about the capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment provide further evidence of the intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region. The new video evidence of Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions with drones in the Kursk region highlights the ongoing use of drone warfare in this conflict. The new message about the number of drones shot down by Ukrainian air defenses provides further insight into the scale of the drone warfare in this conflict. The new message about the Ukrainian General Staff's report on the situation at the front provides further confirmation of the intensity of the fighting, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction. The new video evidence of Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian tank and capturing a stronghold near Pokrovsk highlights the ongoing fighting in the area. The new message about the Ukrainian attempt to bribe Russian soldiers near Horlivka is a significant development, if true, and could indicate a new level of desperation on the part of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces, including the "Black Swan" group of the 225th Separate Assault Battalion, destroyed a Russian settlement in Daryino, Kursk region. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying three BMPs and a BTR in a column. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a group of Russian soldiers hiding in a cellar with an anti-tank mine. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier destroying a group of six Ukrainian soldiers with an explosive dropped from a drone. Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian positions in Vremivka. Reports of commanders from the 40th Marine Brigade extorting money from soldiers and using physical violence. One soldier managed to escape but was later detained by military police and brought back to the unit. He is currently not in contact. Video evidence of the "Aida" group of the "Akhmat" special forces successfully hitting an enemy infantry fighting vehicle and then destroying the dismounted enemy personnel with accurate drone drops. Reports of commanders from the 40th Marine Brigade extorting money from soldiers and using physical violence. Video evidence of a Russian soldier bowing down to a Ukrainian drone operator moments before being killed. Reports of the Ukrainian Armed Forces storming a Russian position near Kurakhove and capturing Russian soldiers. The operation was carried out by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tauride Brigade. Reports of a Russian tank being hit by two FPV drones in the Kursk region, with the crew abandoning the vehicle. The tank did not detonate and is expected to become a trophy.
The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky's statements regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces, and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict. The new messages confirm the significant role of Western-supplied weaponry in Ukraine's defense. The meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Ukraine underscores the continued international attention on the conflict and the potential for further diplomatic efforts to address the situation. The EU will not lift sanctions against Russia, as it would weaken its position, according to Kaja Kallas, as quoted by AFP. Trump stated that his decision on TikTok will be made in the near future, but he needs time to assess the situation. The agreement between Russia and Iran does not include a clause on mutual defense, but it does prohibit helping an aggressor who attacks one of the countries.
The new messages do significantly alter the overall strategic assessment and reinforce the ongoing trends:
The overall situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The continued intensification of drone warfare and the threat of further missile and air strikes pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses. The targeting of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, adds another dimension to the conflict and could have significant implications for Ukraine's economy and civilian population. The signing of the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, along with the confirmation of defense and security aspects in the agreement, is a major geopolitical development with potential ramifications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader Middle East. The alleged involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict.
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