Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 17, 2025, 00:23 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining a strong offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. They have secured significant territorial gains, including Kurakhove, Peschanoye, Shevchenko, and Yantarne, and are making a determined push towards Pokrovsk. The advance along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway underscores the Russian objective to sever Ukrainian lines of communication and potentially encircle Ukrainian forces. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. The situation in Toretsk is dire for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops controlling most of the city, although reports indicate continued fierce resistance from Ukrainian units. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, achieving a notable 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha. Drone warfare continues unabated, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and industrial facilities. New reports indicate drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk, and drone activity in Cherkasy, Khmelnytskyi, and Odesa Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas. The new information about a child being wounded in the Kyiv region due to falling debris from downed Russian drones highlights the continued threat to civilian populations and infrastructure. The video of a building on fire in the Kyiv region, with a Ukrainian flag flying over it, further underscores the impact of the conflict on civilian areas. The continued fighting in Toretsk, despite earlier reports of Russian control, indicates that the situation is still fluid and that Ukrainian forces are putting up a strong resistance.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control the majority of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources confirm the city is practically lost. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have breached Ukrainian formations, and fighting is nearing its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. However, new reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are still resisting fiercely in the outskirts, particularly near the "Toreskaya" mine and the "Fomikha" mine. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing heavy fighting.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. They are currently less than 7 km from a highway leading into the region. Russian forces have reportedly cut the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have reached the road and railway line southwest of Kotlyne and are attempting to gain a foothold in the settlement itself. They also report that Russian forces are using FPV drones with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare, to target the road from Pavlograd to Pokrovsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Udachne, which could become a stronghold for further advances towards the border of the Donetsk People's Republic. Russian forces are conducting assault operations towards Zverevo from Peschanoye and are consolidating their control over Shevchenko, using it as a stronghold. Russian DRGs have reportedly appeared near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka, less than 3 km from the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 131 combat clashes. In addition, they used more than 882 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,300 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas. On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 47 enemy assaults. Nine more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 300 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Svitlodarsk. Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The Air Force reports a high-speed target in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
New: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. The significant number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (166 in the last 24 hours, with almost half in the Pokrovsk direction) underscores the intensity of the fighting and the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
New: Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
New: Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
New: Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
New: Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
New: According to the Russian source "Военкор Котенок", Russian forces are attacking Andriivka from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, and have occupied the banks north of the Volchya and Orlova rivers. East of Konstantinopol, a Russian airstrike targeted a bridge between Konstantinopol and Ulakly, hindering Ukrainian logistics in the area. Russian forces are fighting on the southeastern outskirts of Dachne and advancing north of Yantarnoye and near Zelenovka. They are also reportedly fighting towards Konstantinopol and Rozlyv.
New: According to the Russian source "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны", Russian forces have made significant advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and have entered Dachne, further tightening the "Kurakhovsky pocket." They have reportedly advanced west and east of Yantarnoye and north of Sukhi Yaly along the Sukhi Yaly River. North of Konstantinopolskoye, they advanced near the sewage treatment plant. They have also reportedly broken through Ukrainian defenses and secured positions in Dachne.
New: Russian forces are continuing their assault on the last Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk, with heavy fighting reported on the outskirts. Despite some media reports, the city has not been fully liberated yet. The Russian "Center" troop grouping is attacking in the northwestern part of Toretsk, targeting the mine tailings, mines, and the "Toreskvuhillia" enterprise. Ukrainian forces still control some houses, the private sector, the tailings of the "Fomikha" mine, and the area of the "Toreska" mine, which is the last major defense center in the city.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Artillery Preparation for Yampolivka Assault: Russian forces are conducting artillery preparation for an assault on Yampolivka in the Donetsk People's Republic, with reports of Ukrainian forces fleeing their positions.
Russian Assault Near Velyka Novosilka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka. The operation involved the use of incendiary devices and FPV drones, as well as the destruction of enemy dugouts. This indicates continued Russian offensive operations in the area.
On the Kramatorsk direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction: three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Russian Advances in Zverevo: Russian forces have reportedly forded the right tributary of the Solena River in Zverevo and occupied new positions on the banks of the Utyatnyk pond, expanding their control by over 200 meters.
DeepState reports that Russian forces have occupied Pishchane, Sloviyanka, and Yasenove, and have made advances near Novoandriivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Vremivka, and Chasiv Yar.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Operators of the "Irish" group reportedly caught a rare BTR-3 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a "Storm" module in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone operator successfully targeting a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
New: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 enemy attacks in Kurshchyna, with six combat clashes ongoing.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
New: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
New: 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
New: Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
New: Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
New: Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
New: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
New: A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
New: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
New: Ukrainian airborne troops captured 27 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region, including officers, sergeants, and soldiers from various units. The Ukrainian side claims the soldiers surrendered voluntarily.
New: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with a Lancet loitering munition in the Kursk region.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone operator successfully targeting a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
New: Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast.
New: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
New: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
New: On the Kupiansk direction, the aggressor carried out offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian defenders stopped five enemy attacks.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
New: Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
New: Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
New: Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
New: Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
New: On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. New videos show the moment of the drone attack and the resulting fire.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
Continued drone attacks: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. A new Iranian anti-aircraft loitering munition, the "359", was officially presented. It is a further development of the "358" missile, with a longer range (reportedly around 150 km), higher altitude (over 9 km), and a maximum speed of up to 1000 km/h. The "359" is said to have a more powerful warhead than the "358".
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
New: A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region.
New: Video footage shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier, with graphic imagery of the soldier's injuries. The video is being used for propaganda purposes by Ukrainian forces.
New: Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast.
New: One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
New: One drone is approaching Zhytomyr.
New: New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
New: Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and are likely to turn towards Bilyaivka.
New: One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region.
New: Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region.
New: In Kyiv Oblast, a child was injured due to falling debris from downed Russian drones. A fire also broke out in a cafe-shop and an attached boiler room, covering an area of almost 200 square meters.
New: A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov.
New: 12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district.
New: Ukrainian drones are moving in Cherkasy Oblast in a westerly direction, in Khmelnytskyi Oblast in a southerly direction, and in Odesa Oblast in the direction of Izmail.
New: Two drones are approaching Izmail.
New: Three drones are reported in the Kiliya area, with warnings of potential loud noises.
New: Air defense systems are active in the Izmail district due to a drone attack, according to the mayor of Izmail. Local reports indicate an enemy attack on the city of Kiliya.
New: One drone is reported near Izmail, moving towards Kiliya, with warnings of potential loud noises.
New: One drone is reported to be circling in the Black Sea, and another is circling north of Cherkasy.
New: Two drones are reported in the Artsyz area, moving towards Kiliya.

Other Developments

Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft of various airlines around the world. The New York Times reported earlier that US intelligence warned the White House about Russian special services' plans to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the US and Canada. The US has imposed sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities for their ties to Russia, according to Secretary of State Blinken. The US Treasury also imposed sanctions on "Voentorg" and "Barnaul Transmash," which produces engines for BMPs. British Prime Minister, Kier Starmer is visiting Ukraine for a meeting with President Zelenskyy. They will sign an agreement for partnership in defense and economic relations in non-military sectors.
Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
Reported Retaliation by Russian Army: The reported retaliation by the Russian army for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. Russia has claimed that the US and UK are behind the attack.
Belarus Digital Development: Belarus has approved a concept for ensuring sovereignty in the sphere of digital development until 2030. This indicates a focus on digital security and potential implications for information warfare and cyber operations.
Italy Military Aid: Italy has reportedly sent a new military aid package to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Umyerov, confirmed this after a conversation with his Italian counterpart

Situation Report