Sitrep 2025-01-16 22:56:41

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 22:50 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain a strong offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have captured several key areas, including Kurakhove, Peschanoye, Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, and a significant portion of Toretsk. The advance towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway signifies a clear Russian objective to sever Ukrainian lines of communication and potentially encircle Ukrainian forces. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. New reports indicate that Russian forces are targeting the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces are reportedly encircling Pokrovsk from the flanks, with advances on both the western and eastern flanks. Russian DRGs have reportedly appeared near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka, less than 3 km from the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces are attempting to slow the Russian advance with drones.

In the Kursk region, the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive and renewed Russian advances highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in regaining lost territory. Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km². Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. Drone warfare continues unabated, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The confirmed drone attacks on oil depots and industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory, along with reported attacks on multiple regions, highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone and potentially missile strikes. Airports in Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks. New reports indicate drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk. Ukrainian military officials acknowledge the difficult situation but deny the threat of encirclement. Russian forces are reportedly focusing on securing the flanks and advancing towards key logistical routes.

Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast.

A new development is the reported takeoff of three Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Olenya airbase. This could signal an impending strategic air attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft are reported in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions. Explosions have been reported in Kyiv, with air defense forces actively engaging hostile drones. The air raid alert has been lifted in Kyiv. A new video shows a fire in a building near Kyiv after a drone attack.

The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky's statements regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces, and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict. The new messages confirm the significant role of Western-supplied weaponry in Ukraine's defense, with approximately 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly coming from Western partners. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft of various airlines around the world. The New York Times reported earlier that US intelligence warned the White House about Russian special services' plans to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the US and Canada. The US has imposed sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities for their ties to Russia, according to Secretary of State Blinken. The US Treasury also imposed sanctions on "Voentorg" and "Barnaul Transmash," which produces engines for BMPs. British Prime Minister, Kier Starmer is visiting Ukraine for a meeting with President Zelenskyy. They will sign an agreement for partnership in defense and economic relations in non-military sectors.

The reported retaliation by the Russian army for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. Russia has claimed that the US and UK are behind the attack.

Belarus has approved a concept for ensuring sovereignty in the sphere of digital development until 2030. This indicates a focus on digital security and potential implications for information warfare and cyber operations.

Italy has reportedly sent a new military aid package to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Minister of Defense, Umyerov, confirmed this after a conversation with his Italian counterpart. They also discussed joint efforts in the defense industry, with plans for joint ventures to support Ukraine's military-industrial complex.

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky presented Ukraine's strategy for 2025 to NATO commanders at a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council at the level of commanders-in-chief of the Armed Forces.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. They are currently less than 7 km from a highway leading into the region. Russian forces have reportedly cut the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have reached the road and railway line southwest of Kotlyne and are attempting to gain a foothold in the settlement itself. They also report that Russian forces are using FPV drones with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare, to target the road from Pavlograd to Pokrovsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Udachne, which could become a stronghold for further advances towards the border of the Donetsk People's Republic. Russian forces are conducting assault operations towards Zverevo from Peschanoye and are consolidating their control over Shevchenko, using it as a stronghold.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 131 combat clashes. In addition, they used more than 882 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,300 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas. On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 47 enemy assaults. Nine more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 300 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Svitlodarsk. Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. The Air Force reports a high-speed target in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
New: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. The significant number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (166 in the last 24 hours, with almost half in the Pokrovsk direction) underscores the intensity of the fighting and the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
New: Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
New: Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
New: Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
New: Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
New: According to the Russian source "Военкор Котенок", Russian forces are attacking Andriivka from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka, and have occupied the banks north of the Volchya and Orlova rivers. East of Konstantinopol, a Russian airstrike targeted a bridge between Konstantinopol and Ulakly, hindering Ukrainian logistics in the area. Russian forces are fighting on the southeastern outskirts of Dachne and advancing north of Yantarnoye and near Zelenovka. They are also reportedly fighting towards Konstantinopol and Rozlyv.
New: According to the Russian source "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны", Russian forces have made significant advances towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and have entered Dachne, further tightening the "Kurakhovsky pocket." They have reportedly advanced west and east of Yantarnoye and north of Sukhi Yaly along the Sukhi Yaly River. North of Konstantinopolskoye, they advanced near the sewage treatment plant. They have also reportedly broken through Ukrainian defenses and secured positions in Dachne.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Artillery Preparation for Yampolivka Assault: Russian forces are conducting artillery preparation for an assault on Yampolivka in the Donetsk People's Republic, with reports of Ukrainian forces fleeing their positions.
Russian Assault Near Velyka Novosilka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka. The operation involved the use of incendiary devices and FPV drones, as well as the destruction of enemy dugouts. This indicates continued Russian offensive operations in the area.
On the Kramatorsk direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction: three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Russian Advances in Zverevo: Russian forces have reportedly forded the right tributary of the Solena River in Zverevo and occupied new positions on the banks of the Utyatnyk pond, expanding their control by over 200 meters.
DeepState reports that Russian forces have occupied Pishchane, Sloviyanka, and Yasenove, and have made advances near Novoandriivka, Dachne, Kotlyne, Zvirove, Vremivka, and Chasiv Yar.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Operators of the "Irish" group reportedly caught a rare BTR-3 of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a "Storm" module in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
New: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 enemy attacks in Kurshchyna, with six combat clashes ongoing.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
New: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
New: 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
New: Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
New: Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
New: Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
New: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
New: A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
New: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
New: Ukrainian airborne troops captured 27 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region, including officers, sergeants, and soldiers from various units. The Ukrainian side claims the soldiers surrendered voluntarily.
New: Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with a Lancet loitering munition in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. New videos show the moment of the drone attack and the resulting fire.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
Continued drone attacks: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. A new Iranian anti-aircraft loitering munition, the "359", was officially presented. It is a further development of the "358" missile, with a longer range (reportedly around 150 km), higher altitude (over 9 km), and a maximum speed of up to 1000 km/h. The "359" is said to have a more powerful warhead than the "358".
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
New: A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region.
New: Video footage shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier, with graphic imagery of the soldier's injuries. The video is being used for propaganda purposes by Ukrainian forces.
New: Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast.
New: One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
New: One drone is approaching Zhytomyr.
New: New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
New: Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi and are likely to turn towards Bilyaivka.
New: One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region.
New: Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank to defend Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries. The potential for a major development near Velyka Novoselka adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation in the Donetsk region. The confirmed Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region and the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region indicate continued Russian air activity. The report on Iran's enhanced drone capabilities raises concerns about a potential increase in regional tensions and the possibility of these drones being supplied to Russia. The massive drone attack on Tula Oblast, with 17 drones shot down, and on Orlov Oblast, with another 17 drones shot down, highlights the increasing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to targets deep inside Russian territory. The capture of 27 Russian soldiers by Ukrainian forces in Kursk is a significant development, suggesting a potential breakthrough by Ukrainian forces and a decline in morale among Russian troops. The destruction of a Ukrainian BMP by a Russian Lancet loitering munition in the Kursk region demonstrates the continued effectiveness of Russian drone warfare. The introduction of the new Iranian "359" anti-aircraft loitering munition, with its extended range and capabilities, could significantly impact the air war in the region if it is supplied to Russia or its allies.

New Developments from Recent Messages:

Temporary Flight Restrictions in Penza and Ulyanovsk: New restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Penza and Ulyanovsk, adding to the list of airports with such restrictions (Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, and Tambov). Restrictions have been lifted in Kaluga and Tambov.
Airports Closed Due to Drone Attacks: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Armenian Foreign Minister to Sign Strategic Partnership Document with US: The Armenian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State will sign a document on strategic partnership in Washington.
Ten EU Countries Call for Ban on Russian Gas Imports: Ten EU countries, including the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland, have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports, accelerating the timeline outlined in the RePowerEU strategy.

Situation Report