Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 19:53 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain a strong offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have captured several key areas including Kurakhove, Peschanoye, Shevchenko, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk. The advance towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway signifies a clear Russian objective to sever Ukrainian lines of communication and potentially encircle Ukrainian forces. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. New reports indicate that Russian forces are targeting the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.

In the Kursk region, the stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive and renewed Russian advances highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in regaining lost territory. Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km². Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. Drone warfare continues unabated, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces are actively engaging Russian drones, but the sheer number employed by both sides poses a significant challenge. The confirmed drone attacks on oil depots and industrial facilities deep inside Russian territory, along with reported attacks on multiple regions, highlight the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to drone and potentially missile strikes. Airports in Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks. New reports indicate drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk. Ukrainian military officials acknowledge the difficult situation but deny the threat of encirclement. Russian forces are reportedly focusing on securing the flanks and advancing towards key logistical routes.

Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka, Kharkiv Oblast.

A new development is the reported takeoff of three Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Olenya airbase. This could signal an impending strategic air attack. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction and a threat of the use of aviation means of destruction for front-line areas. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft are reported in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk regions.

The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky's statements regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces, and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict. The new messages confirm the significant role of Western-supplied weaponry in Ukraine's defense, with approximately 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly coming from Western partners. This highlights Ukraine's dependence on continued Western military aid to sustain its war effort. The meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Ukraine underscores the continued international attention on the conflict and the potential for further diplomatic efforts to address the situation.

The reported retaliation by the Russian army for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities.

Belarus has approved a concept for ensuring sovereignty in the sphere of digital development until 2030. This indicates a focus on digital security and potential implications for information warfare and cyber operations.

The message highlights Russia's growing interest in Africa, citing the increasing operations of Russian private military companies (PMCs) and the creation of the African Corps of the Russian Ministry of Defense. This suggests a strategic shift by Russia to expand its influence in Africa, potentially at the expense of Western powers. The message also mentions the potential for an "African boom" driven by the continent's vast natural resources and growing population, indicating Russia's desire to capitalize on these opportunities.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia." Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions in Kurakhove, with claims of suppressing enemy resistance.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. Video evidence of a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device. A kilometer of road near Toretsk is reportedly strewn with the corpses of Russian soldiers. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian infantry fighting vehicle in the Toretsk direction, using a drone.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. A video from the brigade details the circumstances of their capture, including allegations of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles near Pokrovsk. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. They are currently less than 7 km from a highway leading into the region. Russian forces have reportedly cut the railway line between Dnipropetrovsk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have reached the road and railway line southwest of Kotlyne and are attempting to gain a foothold in the settlement itself. They also report that Russian forces are using FPV drones with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare, to target the road from Pavlograd to Pokrovsk. Russian forces are advancing towards Udachne, which could become a stronghold for further advances towards the border of the Donetsk People's Republic. Russian forces are conducting assault operations towards Zverevo from Peschanoye and are consolidating their control over Shevchenko, using it as a stronghold.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. Since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repulse the enemy's attempts to advance deep into Ukrainian territory, inflicting fire damage on them. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas. On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. The enemy launched air strikes with KABs on Kramatorsk, Ivanopillia, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Petrivka. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 41 enemy assaults. Six more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 340 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged. On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times. The enemy hit Piatykhatky with NARs.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex. Video evidence shows paratroopers from the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Armed Forces at a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. The plant was one of the most fortified defense hubs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the city.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Svitlodarsk. Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones. Successful strike on a Ukrainian armored vehicle south of Dachne after being targeted by a Russian FPV drone. Detonation of the vehicle's ammunition and destruction of a nearby Ukrainian howitzer confirmed.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
New: Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. The significant number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (166 in the last 24 hours, with almost half in the Pokrovsk direction) underscores the intensity of the fighting and the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
New: Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
New: Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
New: Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
New: Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
New: Video evidence of a Ukrainian soldier, Prokopienko Vladislav Igorevich, being captured by Russian forces. He expresses discontent with the high command and describes poor communication and training within the Ukrainian forces.
New: Reports of a significant increase in criminal cases for desertion from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with 89,449 cases.
New: Video evidence of abandoned Ukrainian fortifications near Pokrovsk. The video claims that these fortifications were built but not used, and were subsequently captured by Russian forces without a fight. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, with fighting reported near Udachne and Kotlyno. Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces have secured positions along the railway line from Udachne to Kotlyno, and are attempting to advance further into Kotlyno. The use of fiber-optic controlled drones by Russian forces is highlighted, posing a challenge to Ukrainian defenses.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources.
New: According to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian troops have advanced northeast and southeast of Borova, in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone. Video evidence of the Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
New: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks in Kurshchyna, with six combat clashes ongoing.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
New: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
New: Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
New: 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
New: Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
New: Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
New: Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
New: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
New: Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
New: Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
New: Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
New: Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
New: Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
New: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
New: The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
New: A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
New: Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
New: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded. From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
New: Video evidence of a captured US M-577 command and staff vehicle (based on the M113) in the Kursk region. The video claims that the vehicle was captured by Russian forces, repaired, and put into service. The vehicle reportedly belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment of the US Army.
New: Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone striking a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier near the border in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone targeting the vehicle as Ukrainian troops attempt to board it, resulting in a direct hit and likely destruction of the vehicle. This highlights the continued use of drones for precision strikes against enemy equipment and the vulnerability of troops during movement.
New: Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. This highlights the ongoing fighting in the region and the use of drones for close air support.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Video of destroyed Ukrainian BMP CV-90: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
New: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
New: Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.
Clashes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis.
Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
New: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
New: On the Kupiansk direction, the aggressor carried out offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian defenders stopped five enemy attacks.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
New: Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
New: Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
New: Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
New: Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
New: On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. The increased use of drones, including those with fiber optics, highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and the challenges faced by both sides in countering these threats. Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia. Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated. Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan. Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire. Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated. There are reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea. These incidents suggest possible Ukrainian drone or missile strikes.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. Open burning, which arose after the UAV attack, was eliminated at the enterprise in Engels. Video evidence from "STERNENKO" shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels. The video claims that the drone successfully hit the target, causing a fire.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. New Russian drones, including the "Pirahna-13" and a new launch system for the "Lancet" series, have been introduced. A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold. This confirms the operational use of this new technology.

Situation Report