Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 16:07 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining the offensive initiative. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove, while also confirming the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed and less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city, and confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. In the Velyka Novosilka area, there are ongoing actions to encircle the enemy garrison. The zone of control is expanding near the settlement of Neskuchnoye, and battles are going on in the area of the settlement of Novy Komar. The last road for supplying Velyka Novosilka is practically under Russian control. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. There are reports of an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, where they destroyed several Ukrainian strongholds.
Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory have been confirmed, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys". New reports indicate drone attacks on a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
The US has imposed new sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities tied to Russia, including "Voentorg" and "Barnaul Transmash". British Prime Minister Kier Starmer is visiting Ukraine to sign an agreement for partnership in defense and economic relations with President Zelenskyy.
New Developments:
- Kremenna, Luhansk Region: Ukrainian forces have reportedly shelled Kremenna, injuring one civilian and damaging a power substation and five vehicles. The situation in Kremenna has been tense since the beginning of the conflict, with active air defense operations and frequent drone activity. Ukrainian forces are targeting civilians, including children, with drone attacks.
- Ukrainian Drone Production: Reports indicate that Russia is actively increasing its production of UAVs, including the "Supercam" drones. This is attributed to loopholes in international sanctions, with companies using different names and creating new front companies to evade restrictions.
- Trump's Potential Sanctions Strategy: Reports suggest that a potential Trump administration is developing a strategy to use sanctions to force a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. This includes potentially raising the price cap on Russian oil and increasing sanctions on ships transporting Russian oil.
- Ukraine-UK Partnership Agreement: Ukraine and the UK have signed a 100-year partnership agreement, focusing on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security, and scientific and technological partnerships. The UK will provide 150 artillery barrels and a new mobile air defense system to Ukraine.
- Meeting on Missing Persons in Kursk Region: Ombudsmen from Russia and Ukraine, along with representatives from the Red Cross, met to discuss the search for missing persons in the Kursk region. This is the first meeting of its kind.
- Russian Forces Target Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence from the "Aida" drone operator group of the "Akhmat" special forces shows them targeting Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region with drone-dropped munitions.
- Russian Forces Disrupt Ukrainian Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
- Report on captured soldiers: The video features captured soldiers from various units, including the 83rd and 810th Brigades, suggesting these units have been heavily engaged in the Kursk region.
- Video evidence of a North Korean soldier: evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
- Video from "Colonelcassad": details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
- Video from "STERNENKO": shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.
- Video evidence: shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone: operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
- Video evidence: shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
- MLRS crews of Tula paratroopers hit AFU infantry cluster: MLRS crews of Tula paratroopers hit an AFU infantry cluster in the border areas of the Kursk region.
- Drone Attack on Almetyevsk: Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
- Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
- Report on Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
- Reports of potential deployment of French and British troops to Ukraine: The Telegraph reports that France and Britain are discussing the possibility of sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. However, details remain confidential, and there is no full agreement yet.
- New Russian self-propelled gun based on the wheeled chassis of the Bryansk Automobile Plant: A new Russian 152-mm self-propelled gun based on the wheeled chassis of the Bryansk Automobile Plant has been developed.
- 27 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down overnight: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down over four regions of the Russian Federation during the night.
- Poland-Slovakia Relations: The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the refusal to allow a special Slovak aircraft to enter Russian airspace was due to incomplete documentation.
- Report on Potential Hostage Release Deal in Gaza: The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza. However, an Israeli military expert suggests that the implementation of the deal is complex and may face obstacles.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Mi-28NM helicopter.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade in the Kursk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone in the Kursk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles with a "Kub" kamikaze drone in the Kursk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian self-propelled guns with FPV drones in the Kursk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian ammunition depot with an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank near Vozdvyzhenka with a "Lancet" drone.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian paratroopers capturing the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) and establishing a flag in the city.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing a Ukrainian stronghold in Kurakhove.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces advancing near the South-Eastern mine in Chasiv Yar and controlling approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing Shevchenko and Yantarne.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade near Pokrovsk.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with a "Lancet" drone near Chasiv Yar.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions near Pokrovsk.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces disrupting the actions of two Ukrainian engineering groups in the Donetsk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in the Kurakhiv direction.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian paratroopers destroying a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone in the Kursk region.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian "Lancet" drone destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region with FPV drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
- Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions: Video evidence shows a Russian
New Messages Analysis:
- Message 1: Reports on the Ukrainian 22nd Mechanized Brigade using tanks in both offensive and defensive operations. The image shows a tank crew member observing the surroundings from an open hatch, suggesting readiness and active engagement in the Kharkiv direction. This indicates continued military activity and the importance of armored units in the region.
- Message 2: Shows a Ukrainian tank concealed in a forest, with a soldier possibly guiding its movement. The use of camouflage and the muddy terrain suggest operations in difficult conditions, aimed at concealment and surprise. This indicates that Ukrainian forces are utilizing natural terrain for cover and are preparing for either defensive or offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction.
- Message 3: Depicts a Ukrainian tank in a dug-in defensive position, equipped with a mine plough. The presence of three crew members and the camouflaged, entrenched position suggest a readiness to defend against an anticipated attack. The muddy and wooded environment indicates operations in challenging terrain. This reinforces the defensive posture of Ukrainian forces, particularly in anticipation of enemy advances and the threat of mines.
- Message 4: Shows a damaged Ukrainian military vehicle, possibly an APC, in a trench. The presence of a soldier suggests ongoing efforts to assess or recover the vehicle. This highlights the risks and challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in maintaining and recovering equipment under combat conditions.
- Message 5: Features a Ukrainian tank crew with their tank, partially camouflaged and submerged in mud. The crew's relaxed posture suggests a temporary lull in operations, but the tank's readiness indicates ongoing engagement in the conflict. This underscores the continuous use of armored units in the conflict and the importance of camouflage and concealment.
- Message 6: Depicts a camouflaged Ukrainian tank in a forest, with a soldier standing in the foreground. The use of natural cover and camouflage netting indicates efforts to avoid detection. This suggests a strategic approach to positioning and defending key assets.
- Message 7: Shows a Ukrainian soldier signaling to a camouflaged tank in a forested area. The muddy terrain and bare trees suggest operations in difficult environmental conditions. This highlights the tactical coordination between infantry and armored units in challenging terrain.
- Message 8: Reports on the Russian Prosecutor General's Office recognizing the Canadian NGO OpenText Corporation as undesirable, accusing it of collaborating with US intelligence and supporting a propaganda campaign against Russia. This indicates an escalation in the information warfare and legal actions against entities perceived as hostile by Russia.
- Message 9: Claims that Russian drone operators are targeting Ukrainian positions in the Sumy region, up to 16-20 kilometers from the border. This suggests an expansion of Russian drone operations deeper into Ukrainian territory, aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and defenses.
- Message 10: Shows a dynamic map of Russian advances south of Krasnoarmeysk, highlighting the territorial gains made by Russian forces and suggesting a continued offensive push in the Donetsk region.
- Message 11: Reports on a soldier from the 429th Motorized Rifle Regiment who claims his unit is being sent on assaults with minimal ammunition and no air support, and that those who refuse orders are being executed. This highlights severe morale and leadership issues within the Russian forces, as well as potential war crimes.
- Message 12: Announces a meeting between the Slovak Prime Minister and Zelensky to discuss the possible continuation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, indicating diplomatic efforts related to energy security.
- Message 13: Reports that Slovak Prime Minister Fico is seeking a meeting with Zelensky in the coming days, suggesting ongoing diplomatic engagements between Ukraine and Slovakia.
- Message 14: Reports that the Russian electronic trading platform "Roseltorg" has resumed operations after a week-long disruption due to a cyberattack. This indicates the vulnerability of Russian digital infrastructure and the ongoing cyber warfare aspect of the conflict.
- Message 15: Reports that the Ukrainian Air Force has issued a threat warning for enemy drones in the Mykolaiv region, originating from Dnipropetrovsk. This indicates continued Russian drone activity and the ongoing threat to Ukrainian territory.
- Message 16: Announces the liquidation of the commander of the Ternopil 55th Battalion, the head of the artillery unit, and a driver, suggesting a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian command post. This indicates continued attrition of Ukrainian command and control elements.
- Message 17: Reports on a meeting between Ukrainian and UK officials, discussing military cooperation, financial support, and long-term strategic partnership. This highlights the ongoing international support for Ukraine and the focus on strengthening its defense capabilities.
- Message 18: Reports that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian military vehicle with what appears to be a targeted artillery strike, showcasing the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone and artillery operations.
- Message 19: Reports on a clash between Roma and military recruiters in Zakarpattya, highlighting social tensions related to mobilization efforts in Ukraine.
- Message 20: Reports on a former convict who was recruited to fight in Ukraine, later deserted, and caused a fatal car accident. This highlights the social and criminal issues associated with Russia's recruitment of convicts for military service.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and volatile. Russian forces continue their offensive operations in the Donetsk region, with intense fighting reported around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. They have made significant gains, capturing several key locations and cutting off a major supply route. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, with Ukrainian defenses under immense pressure.
In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements and advancing towards Sudzha. The intensity of fighting in this area is compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Drone warfare remains a prominent feature, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory continue, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
Ukrainian forces, particularly the 22nd Mechanized Brigade, are actively engaged in both offensive and defensive operations, utilizing tanks and artillery in challenging terrain conditions. The use of camouflage and concealed positions indicates a focus on stealth and survivability.
New reports indicate that Russian forces are expanding their drone operations, targeting Ukrainian positions up to 16-20 kilometers inside the Sumy region. This development suggests a widening of the conflict zone and increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
The reported liquidation of the commander of the Ternopil 55th Battalion, along with other key personnel, represents a significant blow to Ukrainian forces and may impact their operational capabilities in the affected area.
Diplomatic efforts continue, with Ukraine and the UK signing a 100-year partnership agreement focused on military cooperation and long-term strategic support. Slovakia has also expressed interest in engaging with Ukraine, with a potential meeting between the Slovak Prime Minister and President Zelensky in the coming days.
The information warfare aspect of the conflict remains intense, with both sides using social media and other channels to disseminate information, shape public perception, and influence morale.
The new messages reinforce the ongoing intensity of the conflict, with both sides making gains and suffering losses. The situation on the ground remains fluid, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces adapting their tactics and strategies in response to the evolving battlefield dynamics. The increased use of drones and the targeting of critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, highlight the expanding scope of the conflict and its potential impact on civilian populations. The international dimension of the conflict is also evident, with continued support for Ukraine from Western