Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 13:07 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, achieving significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. Ukrainian forces have also reportedly lost Neskuchne, and there are Russian advances in Vremivka, Kotlyne, near Udachne, Yantarne, and Novovasylivka. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, marked by heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Engels, Kazan, Almetyevsk, and Voronezh. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast, along with the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicate that the tempo of strikes remains high. The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky's statements regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces, and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict.

The new messages do significantly alter the overall strategic assessment and reinforce the ongoing trends:

• Continued Russian Pressure: The reports of fighting near Kotlyne and the targeting of the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road confirm the Russian focus on encircling Pokrovsk and disrupting Ukrainian logistics. The significant number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (166 in the last 24 hours, with almost half in the Pokrovsk direction) underscores the intensity of the fighting and the pressure on Ukrainian forces. The video evidence of the TOS crew targeting Ukrainian positions further emphasizes the intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region. The new information regarding the liberation of Ivanovka and subsequent advances in the Luhansk region confirms the continued Russian pressure on this axis. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian stronghold by a Russian Su-34 bomber in the Kursk border area further reinforces the assessment of ongoing Russian offensive operations in the region.
• Intensified Drone Warfare: The increased use of drones, including those with fiber optics, highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and the challenges faced by both sides in countering these threats. The reports of multiple drones near Voznesensk, west of Zaporizhzhia, east of Cherkasy, and heading toward/through Chernihiv and Pryluky into the Kyiv region indicate widespread drone activity and potential attacks on multiple fronts. New reports indicate drone activity on the borders of Mykolaiv and Odesa oblasts, from Dnipropetrovsk oblast towards Kirovohrad oblast, in the north of Kyiv oblast heading west, and in the south of Chernihiv oblast heading west. Enemy tactical aviation activity is reported in the eastern and north-eastern directions. Additionally, there are reports of launches of guided aerial bombs in Sumy and Donetsk oblasts. There are also reports of two drones heading towards/through Kremenchuk, one drone approaching Boryspil, and two drones moving from the north of Kyiv oblast into Zhytomyr oblast. The new messages detailing drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk, indicate a potential expansion of Ukrainian drone attacks to new regions within Russia. The video evidence of Russian forces using drones to hunt Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and targeted attacks on personnel. The reports of drone attacks on Tambov Oblast, specifically targeting a gunpowder factory in Kotovsk, indicate a potential expansion of Ukrainian drone attacks to new regions within Russia. The video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones highlights the ongoing tactical adaptations in drone warfare. The new messages about Ukrainian drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts further confirm the widespread use of drones and Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. The video evidence of Russian forces using drones to target Ukrainian infantry near Kupyansk highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and targeted attacks on personnel. The new information about drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, specifically targeting oil refineries in Almetyevsk and industrial enterprises in Saratov, further emphasizes Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets far beyond the front lines. The video evidence of Russian forces successfully capturing Ukrainian fortifications near Pokrovsk suggests a potential lack of preparedness or morale among some Ukrainian units. The video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones highlights the ongoing tactical adaptations in drone warfare. The new video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel showing the 506th Regiment conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces, highlights the intensity of the fighting in the Donetsk region. The new messages detailing drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts further confirm the widespread use of drones and Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. The video evidence of a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device highlights the ongoing urban warfare in the city. The video showing an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment, claiming the destruction of a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the capture of six Ukrainian soldiers, provides further evidence of the intense fighting for the city. The new messages detailing the continued drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Engels, Kazan, Almetyevsk, and Voronezh, confirm the persistent threat posed by Ukrainian drone warfare. The video evidence of Russian air defense systems engaging aerial targets in various regions underscores the ongoing efforts to counter these attacks. The new messages detailing the continued drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Engels, Kazan, Almetyevsk, and Voronezh, confirm the persistent threat posed by Ukrainian drone warfare. The video evidence of Russian air defense systems engaging aerial targets in various regions underscores the ongoing efforts to counter these attacks.
• Attacks Deep Inside Russia: The confirmed drone attack on the oil depot in Voronezh Oblast and the reports of attacks on oil refineries in Almetyevsk and industrial enterprises in Saratov demonstrate Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. The video evidence of the attack on the oil depot in Voronezh confirms the location and the scale of the damage. The new information regarding the confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels further emphasizes Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The reported intensification of the fire at the oil depot and the declaration of a state of emergency highlight the severity of the situation. The video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcasing a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities, raises concerns about potential escalation and the involvement of third-party actors in the conflict. The confirmation of a drone attack on Kazan, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, a major producer of high-strength plastics, further demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep inside Russia. The reported targeting of a liquefied gas base and the burning of 3 cisterns with fuel in Kazan highlight the potential impact on critical infrastructure. ZALA's introduction of a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51," indicates ongoing advancements in Russian drone technology. The system's portability and rapid deployment capabilities could enhance the effectiveness of Russian drone operations. The reported Ukrainian drone attacks on industrial enterprises in Saratov, causing damage, further demonstrate Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. The alleged attempted poisoning near Yaroslavl, as claimed by the FSB, raises concerns about potential internal sabotage or espionage activities within Russia. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline, marks a significant escalation in the conflict, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The new information about the prisoner exchange deal in Gaza, while not directly related to the situation in Ukraine, highlights the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the potential for further instability in the region. The statement from Israeli officials that they do not know if all 33 hostages to be released in the first stage of the deal are alive adds a layer of uncertainty to the situation. The new information detailing a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin, indicates that Ukrainian drone attacks are reaching new areas within Russia. The reported destruction of aerial targets by air defenses and the absence of casualties suggest that Russian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The confirmation that 17 drones were shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor, further underscores the scale of the Ukrainian drone attack and the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in the region. The new information detailing a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin, indicates that Ukrainian drone attacks are reaching new areas within Russia. The reported destruction of aerial targets by air defenses and the absence of casualties suggest that Russian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The confirmation that 17 drones were shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor, further underscores the scale of the Ukrainian drone attack and the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in the region. The video evidence of a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a Russian vehicle in occupied Horlivka, with the targeted vehicle seen burning in a second video, demonstrates the continued use of drones for targeted attacks in urban environments. The video evidence from "Colonelcassad" showing the destruction of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the 98th Guards Airborne Division near the settlement of Stenki, southwest of Chasiv Yar, highlights the ongoing efforts to target enemy artillery systems. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes demonstrates the precision and persistence of Ukrainian drone operations. The video evidence showing a Russian FPV drone operator targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka, highlights the widespread use of drones for reconnaissance and targeted attacks. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful, demonstrates the continued efforts to counter Russian air assets. The video evidence showing a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group, highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone strikes and the risks faced by Russian forces. The new messages confirming the significant role of Western-supplied weaponry in Ukraine's defense, with approximately 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly coming from Western partners, highlights Ukraine's dependence on continued Western military aid to sustain its war effort. The meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Ukraine underscores the continued international attention on the conflict and the potential for further diplomatic efforts to address the situation. The new information about the retaliatory strike by the Russian army on Ukraine's gas-energy infrastructure, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This statement could potentially strain relations between Slovakia and its Western allies and further complicate the issue of energy dependence on Russia. The new information about the retaliatory strike by the Russian army on Ukraine's gas-energy infrastructure, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This statement could potentially strain relations between Slovakia and its Western allies and further complicate the issue of energy dependence on Russia. The new information detailing the continued drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Engels, Kazan, Almetyevsk, and Voronezh, confirms the persistent threat posed by Ukrainian drone warfare and the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. The video evidence of Russian air defense systems engaging aerial targets in various regions underscores the ongoing efforts to counter these attacks.
• Persistent Air Threat: The reports of drone activity and air defense operations underscore the persistent threat of air attacks across Ukraine. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, now lifted, further emphasizes the ongoing threat of air attacks in the region. The new messages about Ukrainian air defenses shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 classified as "decoys," highlight the scale of the Russian drone attacks and the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses. The new report of a missile in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, moving northwest, indicates a continued threat of missile attacks in the area. The reports of Russian forces launching an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones, two Ukrainian drones reportedly shot down over the Belgorod region, and one over the Tambov region, and ballistic missiles reportedly launched from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region all indicate ongoing air and missile threats across multiple regions. The new information about a high-speed target heading towards Dnipro indicates a potential missile attack on the city. The new report of a high-speed target in the Kharkiv region in a southwesterly direction, along with reports of a high-speed target in the north of the Sumy region moving southwest, a group of missiles in the Sumy region moving southwest, and ballistic missiles heading towards Pryluki, all indicate a complex and multi-faceted air threat. The reports of X-101 missiles in the north, a missile heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih, several Kalibr missiles flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, Kalibr missiles launched from the Anapa area, missiles flying from the temporarily occupied territories in the Kherson region towards the northwest, several Kalibr missiles flying through the Beryslav district towards the Mykolaiv region, a group of missiles heading from the Kherson region to the Mykolaiv region, a group of missiles in the north of the Sumy region moving south, and cruise missiles reported via Shostka towards Konotop all indicate a significant and widespread missile threat across multiple regions of Ukraine. The reports of X-22 missiles flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and the threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions further compound the complex air threat environment.
• Geopolitical Maneuvering: The reports on Putin's demands and the UN Security Council meeting highlight the ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering surrounding the conflict. Zelensky's meeting with the Ukrainian community in Warsaw and his statement regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces underscore the importance of international support and Ukraine's continued efforts to maintain unity and secure further assistance. The reported retaliation by the Russian army for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This statement could potentially strain relations between Slovakia and its Western allies and further complicate the issue of energy dependence on Russia. The new information detailing the 100-year partnership agreement between Ukraine and the UK underscores the long-term commitment of Western allies to support Ukraine. The agreement's focus on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas, highlights the strategic importance of these areas in countering Russian aggression. The inclusion of provisions for scientific and technological partnerships, as well as the development of a scheme to track stolen Ukrainian grain, demonstrates the comprehensive nature of the agreement and its potential to address a wide range of challenges faced by Ukraine. The new information detailing the 100-year partnership agreement between Ukraine and the UK underscores the long-term commitment of Western allies to support Ukraine. The agreement's focus on military cooperation, particularly in maritime security in the Baltic, Black, and Azov Seas, highlights the strategic importance of these areas in countering Russian aggression. The inclusion of provisions for scientific and technological partnerships, as well as the development of a scheme to track stolen Ukrainian grain, demonstrates the comprehensive nature of the agreement and its potential to address a wide range of challenges faced by Ukraine.
• Significant Escalation: The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement regarding the retaliatory strike on Ukraine's gas-energy infrastructure, including the underground gas storage facility in Stryi, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development indicates a shift towards targeting critical infrastructure and could have far-reaching consequences for Ukraine's energy security and the broader European energy market. The new report of explosions in Kharkiv indicates a potential escalation of attacks on the city. The new report of air defense forces actively responding to a missile attack in Belgorod, with multiple explosions reported in the sky above the Belgorod region, indicates a potential escalation of attacks on Russian territory. The new message highlighting the retaliatory nature of the Russian strike on Ukraine's gas-energy infrastructure underscores the tit-for-tat dynamic of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, could be interpreted as an attempt to sow discord among Ukraine's allies and undermine support for Kyiv. This statement should be viewed critically and verified through independent sources. The video showing the abandoned Javelin anti-tank missile, American Browning M2 machine gun, and other weapons, along with the commentary, serves as a propaganda tool for Russian forces, aiming to demoralize Ukrainian troops and demonstrate the কথিত failures of Western military aid. The new information about the alleged statement by the head of the Duma Defense Committee, Kartapolov, that there will be no general mobilization in the Russian Federation, if true, could be interpreted as an attempt to reassure the Russian public and prevent potential unrest. However, it could also be a tactic to conceal the true state of Russia's military manpower and its plans for future mobilization efforts. The video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel showing the 506th Regiment conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video showing an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment, claiming the destruction of a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the capture of six Ukrainian soldiers, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" showing a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a Russian vehicle in occupied Horlivka, with the targeted vehicle seen burning in a second video, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence from "Colonelcassad" showing the destruction of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the 98th Guards Airborne Division near the settlement of Stenki, southwest of Chasiv Yar, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian FPV drone operator targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military efforts to counter Russian air assets and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video featuring captured soldiers from various units, including the 83rd and 810th Brigades, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and demoralize Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase the alleged involvement of North Korean troops in the conflict and potentially sow discord among the local population. The video from "Colonelcassad" detailing the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video from "STERNENKO" showing Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region, with at least 9 Russian soldiers targeted and 5 golf carts hit, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but missing the target, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military efforts, despite the miss. The video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel showing Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia" is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demoralize Ukrainian troops and supporters and showcase Russian military successes. The video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showing the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video featuring captured soldiers from various units, including the 83rd and 810th Brigades, suggesting these units have been heavily engaged in the Kursk region, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and demoralize Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase the alleged involvement of North Korean troops in the conflict and potentially sow discord among the local population. The video from "Colonelcassad" detailing the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video from "STERNENKO" showing Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region, with at least 9 Russian soldiers targeted and 5 golf carts hit, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but missing the target, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military efforts, despite the miss. The video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel showing Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia" is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demoralize Ukrainian troops and supporters and showcase Russian military successes. The video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showing the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase the effectiveness of Russian weaponry and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video of a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demoralize Ukrainian troops and highlight alleged issues within the Ukrainian military command structure. The video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" showing a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video showing the abandoned Javelin anti-tank missile, American Browning M2 machine gun, and other weapons, along with the commentary, serves as a propaganda tool for Russian forces, aiming to demoralize Ukrainian troops and demonstrate the কথিত failures of Western military aid. The video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" showing footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video from "Colonelcassad" showing the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" showing footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video from "Colonelcassad" showing the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase the effectiveness of Russian weaponry and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video of a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demoralize Ukrainian troops and highlight alleged issues within the Ukrainian military command structure. The video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" showing a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video showing an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment, claiming the destruction of a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the capture of six Ukrainian soldiers, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" showing a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a Russian vehicle in occupied Horlivka, with the targeted vehicle seen burning in a second video, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence from "Colonelcassad" showing the destruction of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the 98th Guards Airborne Division near the settlement of Stenki, southwest of Chasiv Yar, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian FPV drone operator targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes and boost morale among Russian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military efforts to counter Russian air assets and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters. The video evidence showing a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group, is likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Ukrainian military successes and boost morale among Ukrainian troops and supporters.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The continued intensification of drone warfare and the threat of further missile and air strikes pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses. The targeting of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, adds another dimension to the conflict and could have significant implications for Ukraine's economy and civilian population.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia."
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops "in the north-western and northern parts of the city in the direction of the enterprise 'Toreskvuhillia', in the area of the industrial site of the 'St. Matrona of Moscow' mine, in the area of the 'Toreskvuhillia' bus depot and in the direction of the spoil tip of the 'Fomikha' mine". The presence of the AFU is maintained on the northern outskirts of the city.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. A video from the brigade details the circumstances of their capture, including allegations of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue their actions to encircle the city from the south-west. There are reports that advanced units are entrenched on the outskirts of the village of Udachne. Enemy channels admit that Russian troops are advancing on a broad front, reporting battles near the villages of Yasenovoye, north of Novoelizavetovka, near Uspenovka, in the area of the villages of Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, Slavyanka, Udachnoye, Zverevo, Peschanoye, Vozdvizhenka.
• Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Ukrainka captured: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and **Kur