Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 11:07 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain offensive operations, particularly in Donetsk, where they have made significant gains, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed, and Russian forces advancing towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), further worsening the situation for Ukraine in this area. Russian forces are now reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade reportedly repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions, including confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.

New Developments:

Air Raid Alerts in Kyiv: Air raid alerts were activated in Kyiv due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses actively engaged these threats, resulting in explosions in Kyiv. The air raid alert has since been lifted. A drone was reported flying near Brovary towards Kyiv.
Capture of Russian Soldiers: Ukrainian forces captured 27 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Voronezh: A video shows the aftermath of a drone attack on an oil depot in Voronezh Oblast, with a large fire and smoke plume visible.
Alleged Terror Plot in Reutov: Reports indicate that a 16-year-old student from Tajikistan was planning a terrorist attack on a school in Reutov, near Moscow.
Prison Break Attempt in Rostov: Inmates at a pre-trial detention center in Rostov attempted to escape by digging a tunnel. The plot was discovered, and the inmates involved have been detained.
Russian Forces Encircle Pokrovsk: Reports indicate that Russian forces are encircling Pokrovsk from the flanks, with advances on both the western and eastern flanks.
Destruction of Ukrainian Equipment: Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian M119 howitzer and a Humvee by a Russian drone near Dachne.
Ukrainian Military Reorganization: The Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) are reportedly undergoing a major reorganization into a corps structure.
Appeal for Vehicle Repairs: The medical evacuation unit of the 47th Mechanized Brigade is requesting assistance for vehicle repairs.
Russian Claims of Infantry Losses: A Ukrainian soldier claims that up to 75% of Ukrainian infantry has been lost in "senseless attacks".
Drone Warfare Analysis: An analysis of Ukrainian drone warfare highlights the assembly, types, launch areas, and tactics of Ukrainian drones.
Discussion of Sending Troops to Ukraine: Reports indicate that French President Macron and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer are discussing the possibility of sending French and British troops to Ukraine.
Closure of Penal Colony: Reports indicate that the IK-2 penal colony in Pokrov, where Alexei Navalny was held, is being closed.
Drone Strike on Ukrainian Observation Post: Video evidence shows a Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian observation post in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Discussion on Ending the War: Ukrainian President Zelensky believes there is a chance to end the war in 2025 and that newly elected US President Donald Trump wants to end the war.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. There are reports of a monitoring of the last stronghold in Kurakhove before the complete capture of the city by Russian forces.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops "in the north-western and northern parts of the city in the direction of the enterprise 'Toreskvuhillia', in the area of the industrial site of the 'St. Matrona of Moscow' mine, in the area of the 'Toreskvuhillia' bus depot and in the direction of the spoil tip of the 'Fomikha' mine". The presence of the AFU is maintained on the northern outskirts of the city.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles near Pokrovsk. On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue their actions to encircle the city from the south-west. There are reports that advanced units are entrenched on the outskirts of the village of Udachne. Enemy channels admit that Russian troops are advancing on a broad front, reporting battles near the villages of Yasenovoye, north of Novoelizavetovka, near Uspenovka, in the area of the villages of Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, Slavyanka, Udachnoye, Zverevo, Peschanoye, Vozdvizhenka.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlovka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
Neskuchnoye: During the assault of Neskuchnoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have time to approach the machine guns, reported a fighter of the Russian Armed Forces.
Russian Army breaks into Vremivka: Russian Army has broken into Vremivka, advancing towards the center of the settlement near Velyka Novosilka.
Kurakhiv direction: Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces, specifically the 46th Air Assault Brigade, have been distributing gifts to Russian occupants in the Kurakhiv direction.
Artillery Preparation for Yampolivka Assault: Russian forces are conducting artillery preparation for an assault on Yampolivka in the Donetsk People's Republic, with reports of Ukrainian forces fleeing their positions.
Russian Assault Near Velyka Novosilka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Work of FPV drones on enemy manpower and equipment in the Dzerzhinsky direction was carried out by fighters of the 132nd brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video evidence from the 12th "Azov" Brigade shows drones and a tank targeting Russian forces
On the Kramatorsk direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction: three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Russian Advances in Zverevo: Russian forces have reportedly forded the right tributary of the Solena River in Zverevo and occupied new positions on the banks of the Utyatnyk pond, expanding their control by over 200 meters.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. In the Kursk region, the enemy has transferred personnel from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade to the northern section of the front in the area of the settlement of Pogrebki, reports the Sever group of troops. From the march, reinforcements of the enemy on two BMPs and two APCs engaged in battle, but were destroyed. On the whole, heavy counter-battles continue in the region, the enemy is conducting an organized defense.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using larger groups (20-30 people) for assaults instead of smaller groups.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces clearing Makhnovka, but full control has not been established. Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
Impending Decisive Battle: Reports indicate an impending decisive battle for the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: D-30 howitzer crews of the Sever Group of Forces are active in the region, eliminating manpower, armored hardware, artillery, and mortar crews of the AFU.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: In the Kursk region, paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Enemy reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, and the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance is mentioned.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video evidence of the Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system, which reportedly nullifies enemy attempts to hide from thermobaric munitions. The video features the TOS-2 "Tosochka" in service with the Group of Forces "Vostok," targeting Ukrainian Armed Forces positions near Velyka Novosilka. The soldiers praise the new vehicle for its accuracy, range, and maneuverability.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command. The soldier claims they lost half their personnel and were eventually captured.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction.
Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions: Video from "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region: Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
Report on captured soldiers: The video features captured soldiers from various units, including the 83rd and 810th Brigades, suggesting these units have been heavily engaged in the Kursk region.
Video evidence of a North Korean soldier: evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Video from "Colonelcassad": details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video from "STERNENKO": shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.
Video evidence: shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone: operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
Video evidence: shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
Capture of 27 Russian Soldiers: Ukrainian forces captured 27 Russian soldiers in the Kursk region. The captured soldiers include officers, sergeants, and soldiers from various units, including motorized rifle units, marines, and airborne troops.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, where they destroyed several Ukrainian strongholds.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
A video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction. The vehicle was reportedly carrying ammunition and was destroyed by Russian forces, resulting in casualties among the Ukrainian crew.
Artillery and Drones: Video from "Colonelcassad" shows Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The videos, watermarked with "СУДНАЯ НОЧЬ" (Judgement Night) and linked to the "sudoplatov_official" Telegram channel, suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and troop movements during night operations. These videos are likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
North-West of Makiivka: Russian forces have advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements. They continue to advance towards Hrekivka.
Nadiya: Assault troops of the "Azov" Brigade (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation) and artillerymen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to recapture the liberated Nadiya in the LPR, - Marochko.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated. The cause is unknown, but some sources suggest an electrical fault. There are conflicting reports on whether the building is a hospital or a clinic.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
Drone Attack on Saratov: Ukrainian drones attacked industrial enterprises in Saratov, causing damage.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones. This, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure that supplies gas to Europe.
Report of Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Russian chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso. The plant's primary activity is the production of weapons and ammunition, making it a legitimate military target. The distance of about 120 km from the border is within the range of ATACMS missiles.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions.

Other Developments

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft of various airlines around the world. The New York Times reported earlier that US intelligence warned the White House about Russian special services' plans to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the US and Canada.
The US has imposed sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities for their ties to Russia, according to Secretary of State Blinken. The US Treasury also imposed sanctions on "Voentorg" and "Barnaul Transmash," which produces engines for BMPs. British Prime Minister, Kier Starmer is visiting Ukraine for a meeting with President Zelenskyy. They will sign an agreement for partnership in defense and economic relations in non-military sectors.
Zelensky's Statements: President Zelensky stated that there is a chance to end the war in 2025 and that newly elected US President Donald Trump wants to end the war. He also mentioned that Ukraine is not holding any backroom talks with Russia. Zelensky believes Trump can offer Ukraine real security guarantees and force Putin into diplomacy. He also highlighted the heavy losses suffered by Russian forces in the Kursk region, estimated at 30-35 thousand troops.
Video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows a large building fire in Khasavyurt, Dagestan. Locals are attempting to extinguish the fire with buckets.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" reports that two individuals convicted of murdering a student named Kristina Prikhodko have been released 15 years early after signing contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense to fight in Ukraine.
Photo from "Воин DV" shows a social media post by Ukrainian Rada deputy Maryana Bezugla, who reports that personnel from the Ukrainian Air Force are being transferred to the infantry, mobile fire groups are being reduced, and headquarters are expanding.
An abandoned "Pyaterochka" store was discovered in Sudzha. A Ukrainian soldier filmed a video mocking the limited selection of goods in the store. He was later captured by Russian forces.
The head of Yakutia presented a new Yakut knife to a Russian soldier who defeated a Ukrainian soldier in hand-to-hand combat. The soldier had lost his previous knife in battle.
European analysts believe that the war will not stop with the arrival of Trump. At most, there will be a respite during which the parties will restore their forces in order to clash again. The ideal scenario for our enemies is a 100-year war on the borders of Russia, in which Moscow will lose resources and people.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the "Kryla" company of the 120th Territorial Defense Brigade targeting Russian positions with a drone.
Video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a Russian vehicle in occupied Horlivka. The outcome of the chase is shown in a second video, where the targeted vehicle is seen burning.
Video evidence from "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the 98th Guards Airborne Division near the settlement of Stenki, southwest of Chasiv Yar.
Air raid sirens have been activated in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area. This suggests a potential missile or drone threat.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group.
Video evidence of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian infantry with a drone near Dachne.
Video evidence of an aerial battle between two Ukrainian "Mavic" drones and a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone on the Seversk direction.
Video evidence shows a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian position in Novoselivske, with secondary explosions.
Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. The footage is from the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group.
Video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 506th Regiment conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces.
Video evidence of a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.
Video shows an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment. The video claims that the special forces destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six.
Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the "Kryla" company of the 120th Territorial Defense Brigade targeting Russian positions with a drone.
Video from "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a Russian vehicle in occupied Horlivka. The outcome of the chase is shown in a second video, where the targeted vehicle is seen burning.
Video evidence from "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of a BM-21 "Grad" MLRS by the 98th Guards Airborne Division near the settlement of Stenki, southwest of Chasiv Yar.
Air raid sirens have been activated in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area. This suggests a potential missile or drone threat.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group.
Video evidence of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian infantry with a drone near Dachne.
Video evidence of an aerial battle between two Ukrainian "Mavic" drones and a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone on the Seversk direction.
Video evidence shows a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian position in Novoselivske, with secondary explosions.
Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. The footage is from the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group.

Situation Report