Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 16, 2025, 04:37 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have made significant gains, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed, and Russian forces advancing towards Pokrovsk. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Ukrainian forces have reportedly been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), further worsening the situation for Ukraine in this area. Russian forces are now reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, where they destroyed several Ukrainian strongholds.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions, including confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys".

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that Russia planned terror attacks on aircraft of various airlines around the world. The New York Times reported earlier that US intelligence warned the White House about Russian special services' plans to plant explosives on cargo planes bound for the US and Canada.

The US has imposed sanctions on about 250 individuals and legal entities for their ties to Russia, according to Secretary of State Blinken. The US Treasury also imposed sanctions on "Voentorg" and "Barnaul Transmash," which produces engines for BMPs.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). In Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops "in the north-western and northern parts of the city in the direction of the enterprise 'Toreskvuhillia', in the area of the industrial site of the 'St. Matrona of Moscow' mine, in the area of the 'Toreskvuhillia' bus depot and in the direction of the spoil tip of the 'Fomikha' mine". The presence of the AFU is maintained on the northern outskirts of the city, but the enemy, not deprived of logistics, continues to hold the occupied positions, although forecasts for the imminent complete liberation of the city are received.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles near Pokrovsk. On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue their actions to encircle the city from the south-west. There are reports that our advanced units are entrenched on the outskirts of the village of Udachne. Enemy channels admit that our troops are advancing on a broad front, reporting battles near the villages of Yasenovoye, north of Novoelizavetivka, near Uspenovka, in the area of the villages of Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, Slavyanka, Udachnoye, Zverevo, Peschanoye, Vozdvizhenka. Apparently, attacks in several directions should not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maneuver forces along the front line.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian Air Force reports missile threat to Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
Neskuchnoye: During the assault of Neskuchnoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have time to approach the machine guns, reported a fighter of the Russian Armed Forces.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. In the Kursk region, the enemy has transferred personnel from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade to the northern section of the front in the area of the settlement of Pogrebki, reports the Sever group of troops. From the march, reinforcements of the enemy on two BMPs and two APCs engaged in battle, but were destroyed. On the whole, heavy counter-battles continue in the region, the enemy is conducting an organized defense.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using larger groups (20-30 people) for assaults instead of smaller groups.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces clearing Makhnovka, but full control has not been established. Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, where they destroyed several Ukrainian strongholds.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
North-West of Makiivka: Russian forces have advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements. They continue to advance towards Hrekivka.
Nadiya: Assault troops of the "Azov" Brigade (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation) and artillerymen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to recapture the liberated Nadiya in the LPR, - Marochko.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated. The cause is unknown, but some sources suggest an electrical fault. There are conflicting reports on whether the building is a hospital or a clinic.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
Drone Attack on Saratov: Ukrainian drones attacked industrial enterprises in Saratov, causing damage.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones. This, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure that supplies gas to Europe.
Report of Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Russian chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso. The plant's primary activity is the production of weapons and ammunition, making it a legitimate military target. The distance of about 120 km from the border is within the range of ATACMS missiles.

Other Significant Updates

Ukrainian Air Force Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of hostile tactical aircraft in the eastern direction. Activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft were recorded in the Sumy region. This indicates potential air operations by Russian forces in the region, necessitating heightened air defense readiness.
Russian Assault Near Velyka Novosilka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka. The operation involved the use of incendiary devices and FPV drones, as well as the destruction of enemy dugouts. This indicates continued Russian offensive operations in the area.
New Video Evidence: Several new videos have emerged, including footage of Russian forces using FPV drones, a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in Toretsk, and Russian forces making progress in the Dnipropetrovsk direction. Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
Prisoner Exchange: Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, with 25 soldiers from each side being returned. The exchange was reportedly facilitated by the UAE.
Internet Disruptions in Russia: Damage to a main cable in Tatarstan has led to internet speed reductions for 3.8 million Russians in 21 regions.
New Honorary Titles for Russian Cities: Putin awarded the title of "City of Labor Valor" to seven Russian cities.
Report on Polish Stance on Sending Troops to Ukraine: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk indicated that Poland is not currently prepared to send troops to Ukraine.
Report on Extension of Martial Law in Ukraine: The Ukrainian Rada has extended martial law and mobilization until May 9th.
Russian Internet Blocking Exercises: Russian special services conducted large-scale "exercises" to block the internet, which did not go according to plan and were deemed unsatisfactory. The exercises resulted in the blocking of a significant part of the "sovereign Internet" segment and the unblocking of part of the "enemy" segment.
Trump's Pressure on Russian Leadership: US President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly putting pressure on the Russian leadership, using economic threats. Trump's team has stopped discussing concessions on the terms of a possible end to the war in Ukraine and is revising some of the agreements that had already been reached.
Swedish Company Supporting Ukrainian Forces: A Swedish company, Rekyl, is reportedly collecting funds to support Ukrainian forces and selling clothes with fascist symbols.
NATO Exercises: NATO is planning large-scale exercises ("Steadfast Dart") on its eastern flank from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries.
Report on Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
US-China Tensions: The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
Croatian Presidential Election: Pro-Russian incumbent Zoran Milanović reportedly won the Croatian presidential election with 77.70% of the vote.
German Party's Stance: The German party "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - For Reason and Justice" adopted an election program calling for the resumption of supplies of Russian gas and a truce in Ukraine.
Poland-Slovakia Relations: The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs explained that the refusal to allow a special Slovak aircraft to enter Russian airspace was due to incomplete documentation.
Report on Potential Hostage Release Deal in Gaza: The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza, with negotiations involving Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar.
New: The Times of Israel reports on a potential deal to release hostages held in Gaza. Hamas has reportedly presented new demands that Israel finds unacceptable.
Only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue, stated the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko.
In Primorye, an Amur tiger that attacked a person had to be shot, according to the hunting supervision. Old injuries were found on the animal's body.
Russian 152-mm self-propelled gun based on the wheeled chassis of the Bryansk Automobile Plant. The all-wheel drive vehicle BAZ-6910-027 "Voshchina" with an 8 × 8 wheel arrangement already serves as the basis for the self-propelled howitzer "Malva". It is manufactured using the artillery part of the towed howitzer 2A65 "Msta-B". The new installation uses the artillery part of the towed gun 2A36 "Hyacinth-B". With an identical caliber of 152 mm and the same barrel length of 47 calibers, they differ in the volume of the charging chamber. For 2A65 it is 16 liters, and for 2A36 - 27 liters. The use of a more powerful charge provides an increased firing range with artillery shells, including the "Krasnopol-D" guided munition at a distance of up to 50 km.
Reports of potential deployment of French and British troops to Ukraine: The Telegraph reports that France and Britain are discussing the possibility of sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. However, details remain confidential, and there is no full agreement yet. The Telegraph showed 3 scenarios of how a peacekeeping mission might theoretically look like. 1 provides for freezing the line of combat contact in Ukraine, in which the Russian Federation leaves the temporarily occupied territories in the east and south of the country under its control. It is also considering the possibility of protecting Kyiv (scenario 2), and creating an "air shield" on the territory of Poland and training soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Ukraine (3).
Court partially satisfied the claim of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to the Khrunichev Center for more than 111 million rubles. This was reported to TASS in the press service of the Moscow Arbitration Court. At the same time, the court did not disclose the exact amount recovered from the enterprise, and did not disclose other details of the claim.
"Rarog" is looking for new specialists: "Butusov Plus" reports that the "Rarog" unit is looking for craftsmen who will help create new technologies, improve existing ones, repair damaged equipment and bring victory closer.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and have now captured Peschanoye, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, and Yantarne. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with the Ukrainian defense reportedly collapsing. Ukrainian forces have been pushed out of most of their positions in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk), further worsening the situation for Ukraine in this area. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and have advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, where they destroyed several Ukrainian strongholds. In the area of Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka there are ongoing actions to encircle the enemy garrison. The zone of control is expanding near the settlement of Neskuchnoye, battles are going on in the area of the settlement of Novy Komar.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, with the potential to impact Russian military medical capacity. The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict. The reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. The new information about the Ukrainian attacks on the Bryansk chemical plant confirms the target and suggests the use of ATACMS missiles. The new information regarding NATO's plans to deploy a fleet of drones in the Baltic Sea and reinforce its military presence in the region indicates a significant escalation in tensions between NATO and Russia. The Ukrainian Air Force's report of hostile tactical aircraft activity in the eastern direction suggests potential air operations by Russian forces, necessitating heightened air defense readiness. The report of a successful Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka indicates continued Russian offensive operations in the area. The destruction of three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points by Russian forces is a significant development, potentially degrading Ukrainian command and control capabilities.

The new information about the potential hostage release deal in Gaza, with Hamas presenting new demands, could have indirect implications for the situation in Ukraine. A resolution or escalation in Gaza could affect the global geopolitical landscape and potentially influence the dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine. The statement by the Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament, Andrei Danko, that only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue highlights the growing international recognition of the need for a negotiated solution involving major powers. The new information regarding the possible deployment of French and British troops to Ukraine, although still under discussion and without full agreement, indicates a potential major shift in the involvement of Western powers in the conflict. This could lead to a significant escalation and a more direct confrontation between NATO countries and Russia. The three scenarios presented by The Telegraph - freezing the line of contact, protecting Kyiv, and creating an "air shield" in Poland while training Ukrainian soldiers - represent different levels of involvement and risk. The analysis of the image showing the "frozen frontline" in eastern Ukraine further emphasizes the complexity of the situation, with buffer zones, Russian-controlled areas, and the presence of Western forces indicating a strong international interest in the conflict. The image depicting the movement of Ukrainian reserves from Kyiv towards Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava, while Western troops take responsibility for the defense of Kyiv, reveals a strategic reallocation of forces and a focused effort to push back Russian advances. The image showing NATO-led military training in western Ukraine, protected by air defense systems, indicates support for Ukraine while prioritizing the security of its personnel. The positioning of training operations suggests a focus on long-term capability building away from the immediate conflict area, whilst the front line highlights the ongoing territorial losses of Ukraine and the active war zone. The court's decision to partially satisfy the claim of the Russian Ministry of Defense against the Khrunichev Center for over 111 million rubles indicates potential financial and logistical challenges for the Russian defense industry. The recruitment advertisement by the "Rarog" unit highlights the importance of skilled technical personnel in modern warfare and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to enhance their technological capabilities.

Changes from Previous Situation

Ukrainian Air Force Activity: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the north-eastern direction. Launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft were recorded in the Sumy region.
Assault on Neskuchnoye: During the assault of Neskuchnoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have time to approach the machine guns, according to a fighter of the Russian Armed Forces.
Russian Advances in Toretsk: In Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk) enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops "in the north-western and northern parts of the city in the direction of the enterprise 'Toreskvuhillia', in the area of the industrial site of the 'St. Matrona of Moscow' mine, in the area of the 'Toreskvuhillia' bus depot and in the direction of the spoil tip of the 'Fomikha' mine". The presence of the AFU is maintained on the northern outskirts of the city, but the enemy, not deprived of logistics, continues to hold the occupied positions, although forecasts for the imminent complete liberation of the city are received.
Russian Advances on the Pokrovsk Direction: On the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue their actions to encircle the city from the south-west. There are reports that our advanced units are entrenched on the outskirts of the village of Udachne. Enemy channels admit that our troops are advancing on a broad front, reporting battles near the villages of Yasenovoye, north of Novoelizavetivka, near Uspenovka, in the area of the villages of Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, Slavyanka, Udachnoye, Zverevo, Peschanoye, Vozdvizhenka. Apparently, attacks in several directions should not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maneuver forces along the front line.
Russian Advances in the Kursk Region: In the Kursk region, the enemy has transferred personnel from the 82nd Air Assault Brigade to the northern section of the front in the area of the settlement of Pogrebki, reports the Sever group of troops. From the march, reinforcements of the enemy on two BMPs and two APCs engaged in battle, but were destroyed. On the whole, heavy counter-battles continue in the region, the enemy is conducting an organized defense.
Russian Advances in the Luhansk Region: Assault troops of the "Azov" Brigade and artillerymen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to recapture the liberated Nadiya in the LPR, according to Marochko.
Reports of potential deployment of French and British troops to Ukraine: The Telegraph reports that France and Britain are discussing the possibility of sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. However, details remain confidential, and there is no full agreement yet.
Court partially satisfied the claim of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to the Khrunichev Center for more than 111 million rubles. This was reported to TASS in the press service of the Moscow Arbitration Court. At the same time, the court did not disclose the exact amount recovered from the enterprise and did not disclose other details of the claim.
"Rarog" is looking for new specialists: "Butusov Plus" reports that the "Rarog" unit is looking for craftsmen who will help create new technologies, improve existing ones, repair damaged equipment and bring victory closer.
27 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down overnight: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down over four regions of the Russian Federation during the night.
Ukrainian forces continue to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure: Ukrainian forces are reportedly continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones, according to the "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant: Open-source information suggests that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant in Seltso. The plant's primary activity is the production of weapons and ammunition, making it a legitimate military target. The distance of about 120 km from the border is within the range of ATACMS missiles.
New Russian self-propelled gun based on the wheeled chassis of the Bryansk Automobile Plant: A new Russian 152-mm self-propelled gun based on the wheeled chassis of the Bryansk Automobile Plant has been developed. The all-wheel drive vehicle BAZ-6910-027 "Voshchina" with an 8 × 8 wheel arrangement already serves as the basis for the self-propelled howitzer "Malva". It is manufactured using the artillery part of the towed howitzer 2A65 "Msta-B". The new installation uses the artillery part of the towed gun 2A36 "Hyacinth-B". With an identical caliber of 152 mm and the same barrel length of 47 calibers, they differ in the volume of the charging chamber. For 2A65 it is 16 liters, and for 2A36 - 27 liters. The use of a more powerful charge provides an increased firing range with artillery shells, including the "Krasnopol-D" guided munition at a distance of up to 50 km.
Video evidence of a Russian soldier claiming that during the assault of Neskuchnoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have time to approach the machine guns: A Russian soldier claimed that during the assault of Neskuchnoye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not even have time to approach the machine guns.

Situation Report