Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 15, 2025, 11:07 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have made significant gains, capturing key locations such as Shevchenko, Yantarne, Ukrainka, Peschanoye, and most of Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian defenses nearly collapsed, and Russian forces advancing towards Pokrovsk. The highway between Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. Russian forces are now reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces have secured a foothold in the northern part of Toretsk, including the area of the "Toreskaya" mine. A video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 132nd brigade reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian rotation in Toretsk using precision fire.

In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have regained territory, making a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements including Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces clearing Makhnovka, but full control has not been established. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel claims Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, specifically in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, reportedly used drones to target Russian troops in the region.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions, including confirmed Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, industrial facilities, and military infrastructure. Russian forces are reportedly using new drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys". Ukrainian forces are using drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. A video from the "Tsaplienko" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian drones in the eastern direction. Another video from the "Tokyo" unit of the 102nd Territorial Defense Brigade shows the destruction of two Russian Zala reconnaissance drones.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. A video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered near Kurakhove thanking Russian forces and saying "Glory to Russia."
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. New: Russian forces have secured a foothold in the northern part of Toretsk, including the area of the "Toreskaya" mine. A video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 132nd brigade reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian rotation in Toretsk using precision fire.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut. New reports indicate that 16 Ukrainian soldiers from the 151st Mechanized Brigade have been captured on the Pokrovsk direction. A video from the brigade details the circumstances of their capture, including allegations of poor leadership, inadequate training, and low morale. Russian forces have reportedly cut off one of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro, specifically the road through Mezhova. Russian forces are reportedly 5-7 km from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne. Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainka Liberated: Russian forces liberated Ukrainka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible. Russian forces are reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions. The number of wounded from the attack has risen to 4. New: The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
Battles are ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east.
Ukrainian forces are attempting to counterattack near Shevchenko.
Fighting is ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported.
Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad).
Russian forces are expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 166 combat clashes in the past 24 hours, with almost half of them in the Pokrovsk direction.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. They have also captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region. Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. New: There are unconfirmed reports of Russian forces clearing Makhnovka, but full control has not been established.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region and taken to Kyiv. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.
Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks in Kurshchyna, with six combat clashes ongoing.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. New: A video from the "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops in the Kursk region.
South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region of Russia. The total estimated losses among North Korean troops in the region are around 3,000, with 300 killed and 2,700 wounded.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Video of destroyed Ukrainian BMP CV-90: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.
Clashes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis.
Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets.
Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
Continued drone attacks: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base. 3 cisterns with fuel are on fire in Kazan after a drone attack on a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
Drone Attack on Saratov: Ukrainian drones attacked industrial enterprises in Saratov, causing damage.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia.
Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated.
There are reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea. These incidents suggest possible Ukrainian drone or missile strikes.
Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. Open burning, which arose after the UAV attack, was eliminated at the enterprise in Engels.
Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air weapons. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region and launches of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk, but no casualties were reported.
Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
The peak of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the special operation zone in 2024 was in October, with 1,128 drones shot down.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that all 8 ATACMS missiles used for strikes on Russia were shot down by S-400 and "Pantsir-SM" air defense systems.
Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that 58 out of 80 drones were shot down, with 21 drones classified as "lost" (not reaching their targets). The downed drones caused damage in Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy regions, damaging private and multi-apartment buildings, cars, and property. There are no reported casualties.
Explosions and gunfire have been reported in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan, with reports of a drone attack on a local oil pumping station.
Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated.
Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan. The video shows a large fire and smoke plume, with reports of damage to the facility.
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Reports indicate that Ukrainian drones are attacking industrial enterprises in Almetyevsk.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire.
Video evidence of a Ukrainian drone attack on a military truck in the Ulakly area.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
Temporary flight restrictions in Penza and Ulyanovsk. New restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Penza and Ulyanovsk, adding to the list of airports with such restrictions (Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, and Tambov). Restrictions have been lifted in Kaluga and Tambov.
The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and have now captured Peschanoye, Ukrainka, Shevchenko, and Yantarne. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with the Ukrainian defense reportedly collapsing. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka. Russian forces have occupied the Long Forest on the heights on the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The new claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car in the Kursk region, if true, further escalates the conflict and raises concerns about civilian casualties. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, with the potential to impact Russian military medical capacity. The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict. The reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. The new information about the Ukrainian attacks on the Bryansk chemical plant confirms the target and suggests the use of ATACMS missiles. This highlights the ongoing threat to Russian industrial and military facilities. The open-source information stating that the plant's primary activity is the production of weapons and ammunition makes it a legitimate military target. The distance of about 120 km from the border is within the range of ATACMS missiles. The new information regarding the closure of airports in Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov due to drone attacks indicates a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information regarding the Armenian Foreign Minister's visit to Washington to sign a strategic partnership document with the US indicates a significant shift in Armenia's foreign policy and a potential weakening of Russia's influence in the region. The call from ten EU countries for a complete ban on Russian gas imports further escalates economic pressure on Russia. The new information regarding the arrival of the Slovak Prime Minister in Moscow for the celebration of the 80th anniversary of victory on May 9 indicates a strengthening of ties between Slovakia and Russia.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region, especially given the proximity of the frontline to the **Dnipropetrovsk

Situation Report