Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum in the Donetsk region and making significant gains in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces are facing a critical situation in Toretsk and are struggling to hold ground against the renewed Russian offensive in Kursk. Drone warfare is intensifying, with reports of widespread drone activity and new technologies being employed.
Key Updates
Donetsk Region
- Fall of Kurakhove and Toretsk: Russian forces have captured most of Kurakhove, with DeepState officially acknowledging its loss. In Toretsk, less than 15% remains under Ukrainian control, while Russian sources claim near-total control.
- Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka Highway: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk and have cut the highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka. One of the routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has also been cut.
- Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye: The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne, and Russian forces claim to have captured Peschanoye.
- Other Advances: Russian gains are reported near several other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
- Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
- Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling approximately 20% of its territory.
- Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing, with Russian forces clearing Novovasylivka and fighting for Uspenivka.
- Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting, reporting the repulsion of assaults and claiming to have destroyed Russian equipment.
- Airspace Closure: The highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed due to Ukrainian attacks.
- Ballistic Missile Threat: A ballistic missile threat was reported in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
- New: Russian forces have reportedly completed the clearing of Zelenoe, south of Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
- New: Three Tu-95MS strategic bombers have taken off from the Olenya airbase, signaling a potential strategic air attack.
Kursk Region
- Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
- Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the Sudzha border region.
- Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
- Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
- 10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough, liberating Alexandria, Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye, advancing up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
- Sudzha Area: Russian forces are advancing, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
- Casualties: Significant Ukrainian losses are reported, with over 350 personnel lost during the day and over 50,000 since the beginning of hostilities, according to Russian sources.
- New: Western analysts report that Russian forces have regained control of two-thirds of the territory previously held by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region. The current area under Ukrainian control is estimated to be no more than 443 km², down from a peak of over 1200 km².
- New: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost 90 EW stations in the Kursk region since the beginning of hostilities.
Kharkiv Region
- Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
- Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
- Ukrainian Counterattack: An attempted Ukrainian counterattack in the Staritsa area was unsuccessful.
- New: Russian forces have reportedly destroyed the main Ukrainian forces in Zahryzove and initiated battles in Bohuslavka.
Luhansk Region
- Russian Advances: Russian forces are making progress in Ivanovka and are attempting to capture heights near Terny. They are also storming Zahryzove.
- Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction.
- New: Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.
Drone Warfare
- Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
- Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The oil depot has been burning for 5 days.
- New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
- New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
- New: 40 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region overnight.
- New: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
- New: Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
- New: 16 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Rostov region overnight.
- New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
- New: Air raid alerts have been issued for Kyiv and other regions due to the threat of drone and missile attacks.
- New: A missile was reported in the southern part of the Kharkiv region, moving northwest.
- New: Two Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over the Belgorod region, and one over the Tambov region.
- New: Ballistic missiles were reportedly launched from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
- New: Russian forces report shooting down two Ukrainian drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Tambov region.
Geopolitical Developments
- The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
Other Developments
- Reports indicate a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a potential face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation.
- NATO is planning large-scale exercises on its eastern flank, named "Steadfast Dart," from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries.
- The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine.
- New: Russia is reportedly studying the possibility of implementing atomic projects in Vietnam and supplying LNG.
- New: Russia is reportedly ready to share its experience in cybersecurity and AI with Vietnam.
- New: Mishustin has invited Vietnamese investors to Russia.
- New: The suspended president of South Korea has reportedly been arrested.
- New: Teenagers who engaged in a fight at an educational institution in Khabarovsk Krai have reportedly been held administratively liable.
- New: Mishustin has announced that Russia is studying the possibility of implementing atomic projects in Vietnam and supplying LNG.
- New: Russia is reportedly ready to share its experience in cybersecurity and AI with Vietnam.
- New: Mishustin has invited Vietnamese investors to Russia.
Analysis
The situation is characterized by a high degree of dynamism and fluidity. Russian forces are making significant advances in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions, putting immense pressure on Ukrainian defenses. The capture of Kurakhove and the near-total control of Toretsk represent a major setback for Ukrainian forces, opening the way for a potential Russian push towards Pokrovsk. The renewed offensive in the Kursk region, coupled with the reported breakthrough, indicates a shift in Russian strategy and a possible attempt to expand the conflict zone.
The intensification of drone warfare highlights the evolving nature of the conflict, with both sides employing new technologies and tactics. The confirmed drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's growing capabilities in this domain, while Russia's use of fiber-optic-connected drones showcases its efforts to counter electronic warfare measures. The widespread drone activity across multiple regions underscores the challenges faced by air defense systems and the increasing threat to civilian populations.
The reported takeoff of Russian strategic bombers suggests an imminent escalation in aerial attacks, potentially targeting critical infrastructure or military installations. The air raid alerts across Ukraine indicate a heightened state of readiness and anticipation of further strikes.
The geopolitical developments, including the potential Putin-Trump meeting and NATO exercises, add another layer of complexity to the situation. The US warning to China signals a potential widening of the conflict's international implications.
Overall, the situation remains highly precarious for Ukraine. The continued Russian advances, coupled with the intensification of drone warfare and the threat of strategic air attacks, pose a significant challenge to Ukrainian defenses. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict.
