Strategic Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 15, 2025, 00:07 UTC

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye, making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements. The enemy is attacking in the areas of Yantarne, Novotoretske, Promin, Zelene, Novyi Trud, Chunyshyne, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Novoandriivka, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Shevchenko. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetivka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with intense urban warfare ongoing. Russian forces control nearly all of Toretsk except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Russian troops advanced 300 meters and reached the Fomikha mine. They also advanced to the Toretska mine west of Krymske. The liberation of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) is nearing its final stages. A large stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) has been cleared, with only localized pockets of resistance remaining. The enemy is preparing defensive lines outside the city.
New Battles: Fighting is ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. Fighting is also ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported. Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory. The enemy occupied Yantarne and advanced in Yasenove, Chasovoy Yar, near Novoelizavetivka and Yantarny. The line of contact in Chasovoy Yar was clarified. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces stopped 70 Russian assaults in one day in the Pokrovsk direction.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in Svitlodarsk.
Ukrainian Ambush: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne. Russian forces are also reportedly completing the defeat of the enemy in Neskuchne.
Krasnoarmeysk Direction: From Vozdvizhenka, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Malynivka and reached the intersection of roads. Between Dachenskyi and Novyi Trud, a pocket in the direction of Krasnoarmeysk was cleared. From Novovasylivka, Russian forces are advancing towards Uspenivka, also employing artillery and drones against it and Novooleksandrivka. An enemy tank was hit by an FPV drone attack on the eastern side of Uspenivka, although the enemy managed to pull the damaged armored vehicle away.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo and Novoivanovka.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in the death of a woman.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans. Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
Casualties: Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction amounted to more than 460 soldiers, 3 tanks and 22 armored fighting vehicles, 3 Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled.
Ongoing Drone Activity: An alert for drone activity has been issued in the Belgorod region, with reports of drones being shot down. This indicates continued efforts by both sides to utilize drones for reconnaissance and potentially for attacks in the area.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces are advancing south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast from Kursk. One drone is reported to be flying very low, moving from Ternopil Oblast to Lviv Oblast. One drone is circling at the intersection of Chernihiv and Poltava Oblasts. One drone is reported to be south of Oleksandriia with a southwestern course. Three drones are reported to be south of Kharkiv, flying towards Chuhuiv. Three drones have flown past Krasnohrad in Kharkiv Oblast, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One drone is flying past Poltava with a southern course. Two drones are at the intersection of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. An update from the Ukrainian Air Force indicates the following drone movements: A drone in the south of Chernihiv Oblast, heading southwest. Drones in the west, center, and south of Kharkiv Oblast, heading east, northeast, and southeast. A drone in the center of Poltava Oblast, heading north. A drone in the southeast of Kirovohrad Oblast, heading west. Another enemy drone is reported to be in the east of Lviv Oblast, heading west.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". A drone on fiber optics called "Prince Vandal" will be produced under franchise in various regions of the Russian Federation, according to the general director of the SPC "Ushkuynik" Alexei Chadayev.
Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled howitzer M109 in the Kursk direction.
Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.

Other Significant Developments

Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems. Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Commemorative Coins: Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
New EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia. They want to abandon Russian LNG and aluminum.
Mobilization of Prisoners: The Ukrainian government has approved a procedure for mobilizing prisoners for military service.
Strategic Partnership Agreement: Armenia is set to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the United States.
Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the European Union.
Alleged Terrorist Attack Plot: US intelligence sources warned of a potential Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes, prompting a message to Putin from the White House. The plot, allegedly aimed at causing mass casualties, was reportedly thwarted.
Impeachment Threat: The Slovak opposition plans to hold a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing his recent visit to Moscow and other foreign policy actions.
Desertion for Money: A Ukrainian border guard surrendered before Christmas, stating that there are cases of escape from the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the border for money. The reason is fatigue and low morale. According to him, his acquaintance "fled across the border" for $3,000.
"Simple People Must Die": A message was shared from the "Operation Z" Telegram channel, quoting a pro-Kyiv journalist Portnikov, who states that ordinary people, not the elite, should die in war. This perspective aligns with the ongoing mobilization efforts in Ukraine, where citizens are expected to share the responsibility of national defense.
Trump and Taiwan: The future US National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, has stated that Trump intends to accelerate arms deliveries to Taiwan. This indicates a potential continuation of a strong US stance against China and support for Taiwanese defense capabilities.
Elon Musk and SEC: The US Securities and Exchange Commission has filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk, alleging that he failed to disclose information about a large purchase of Twitter (now X) shares in a timely manner before acquiring the social network in 2022. This legal action could potentially impact Musk's business interests and his involvement in social media platforms.
South Korean President: Lawyers for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol are discussing his voluntary departure from his residence with security officials, according to the Yonhap news agency. The police have also arrested the acting head of the president's security service, as reported by the Chosun Ilbo newspaper. These developments suggest a potential political crisis or security concern within the South Korean government.
Putin's Telegram to Investigative Committee: Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Investigative Committee on its 14th anniversary, noting the contribution of its employees to ensuring law and order in Donbas and Novorossiya. This message highlights the role of the Investigative Committee in the ongoing conflict and its importance to the Russian government.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant developments in multiple regions. Russian forces continue to make advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, Shevchenko, and Peschanoye. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha. Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The transfer of Ukrainian Air Force personnel to infantry roles and the reduction of mobile fire groups indicate a shift in Ukraine's military strategy, potentially prioritizing ground operations over air defense.

Strategic Implications

The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The extensive use of drones underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities. The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict. The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale. The reported strike on the Saratov oil refinery and confirmation of other strikes by the Ukrainian Security and Defense Forces highlight Ukraine's continued efforts to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region. The mobilization of prisoners in Ukraine for military service marks a significant development, potentially increasing the number of troops available for the war effort. Armenia's intention to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the US and its move towards EU membership signify a potential shift in its geopolitical alignment. The alleged Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes indicates a potential escalation of the conflict. The quote from journalist Portnikov, stating that "simple people" must die in war, could be used by Russia to fuel anti-government sentiment within Ukraine and potentially undermine mobilization efforts. However, it could also be used by Ukraine to rally its population and emphasize the shared responsibility of national defense. The new information about drone movements across multiple oblasts suggests that both sides are actively using drones for reconnaissance and potentially for attacks. The alert in the Belgorod region indicates that Russian forces are aware of the threat and are taking measures to counter it. The statements from Mike Waltz and the lawsuit against Elon Musk are not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine but could have broader geopolitical implications. The developments in South Korea are also not directly related but could potentially impact the regional security situation. Putin's message to the Investigative Committee highlights the importance of this organization to the Russian government and its role in the ongoing conflict.

Conclusion

The situation remains highly fluid, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage on the battlefield and in the information space. The continued fighting and the high number of casualties underscore the human cost of the conflict. The new information about drone movements and the alert in the Belgorod region highlight the ongoing importance of drone warfare in this conflict. The other developments mentioned in the new messages could have broader geopolitical implications but do not directly impact the military situation in Ukraine at this time.

Situation Report