Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 14, 2025, 19:07 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. Significant gains are reported around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, with Kurakhove confirmed as largely under Russian control. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Russian forces controlling most of the city and continuing to advance. Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control and fighting is approaching its culmination. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian military analysts also report a dire situation for Ukrainian forces, with battles shifting to the western and northwestern parts of the city. They note that Russian forces are attacking with small, maneuverable groups towards the spoil tip of mine "No. 12" and a forest plantation west of the city. In Toretsk, Russian forces are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians. The advance towards Pokrovsk and the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway indicates a Russian objective to sever Ukrainian lines of communication and potentially encircle Ukrainian forces. The frontline is now reported to be just 6.5 km away from the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces have captured the Shevchenko lithium deposit, north of Kurakhove, as confirmed by the head of the Russian proxy Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making a significant 10-kilometer breakthrough and advancing in the Sudzha area. Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory. D-30 howitzer crews of the Sever Group of Forces are active in the region, eliminating manpower, armored hardware, artillery, and mortar crews of the AFU.

Drone warfare continues unabated, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. New drone attacks are reported in multiple Ukrainian and Russian regions. Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare, and have introduced the new "Pirahna-13" FPV drone for remote mining. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot in Engels is intensifying, with a state of emergency declared. Open burning, which arose after the UAV attack, was eliminated at the enterprise in Engels. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. New videos show the moment of the drone attack and the resulting fire. A new message confirms a state of emergency has been declared in the Engels region to address the oil depot fire. The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now. There are reports of increased Russian air and missile activity. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets.

Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area. This suggests a potential expansion of Ukrainian drone attacks deeper into Russian territory.

The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air weapons. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region and launches of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.

The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Geopolitical developments include a potential Trump-Putin meeting and ongoing NATO exercises on its eastern flank. German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service. The EU is also preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week. Serbian President Vučić has proposed hosting a meeting between Putin and Trump in Serbia to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove. Russian forces are making advances west of Kurakhove, with reports of a 8km² area being cleared.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian sources claim that almost the entire city is under their control. Russian forces have advanced 600 meters in northern Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk) in the area of Fomikha.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Video evidence shows the destruction of enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade near Pokrovsk. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road. Russian forces are making advances on the southern flank towards Pokrovsk. Russian forces are working to destroy Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk. They have also reportedly entered the outskirts of the city. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
Shevchenko, Ivanivka, and Yantarne Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, Ivanivka, and Yantarne. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka, having advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Zelene and are advancing towards Andreyevka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with 192 attacks in the Donetsk direction and 107 in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the area.
Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near the plant.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes, with five ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye.
Explosions were reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Casualties: Ukrainian forces report the elimination of 189 Russian troops and the wounding of 188 in the Donetsk region. One tank, two BTRs, three vehicles, and a Russian UAV antenna were destroyed.
Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank near Vozdvyzhenka using drones.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine. The threat of ballistic weaponry has been lifted across most of Ukraine, except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions.
New: Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.
New: Russian forces, as reported by "Военкор Котенок", are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. South of this area, from the Petropavlovka area, the 114th Brigade is breaking through the Ukrainian fortified area, trying to cut off access to Andreevka from the rear.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian forces report that they are continuing to storm Pogrebki and that both sides are present in the village.
Russian forces report that they control most of Russkoye Porechnoye and are concentrating reserves southwest of Kozino.
Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
After liberating Leonidovo, Russian paratroopers took control of Alexandria and are continuing their attacks towards Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolsky.
The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
"Два майора" reports that in the Kursk region, the enemy launched 11 unsuccessful counterattacks on different sectors of the front in the Sudzhansky border area. Our troops have completed the clearing of enemy strongholds between Guyevo and Kurilovka, advancing with stubborn fighting in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district.
Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the situation on all fronts remains unchanged, with Russian forces consolidating their positions. Fighting continues in Pogrebki and on the western outskirts of Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war.
Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
Video from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the 114th brigade has liberated Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
New: Ukrainian border guards report destroying a Russian armored personnel carrier north of Sumy.
New: "Colonelcassad" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of January 14, 2025. Key points include:
- Russian forces have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian formations, including tank, mechanized, air assault, and territorial defense brigades.
- Three Ukrainian counterattacks have been repelled.
- Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian personnel and equipment in various locations in the Kursk and Sumy regions.
- Ukrainian losses for the day are reported as over 460 personnel, 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 18 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and mortars.
- Total Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities are estimated at over 51,900 personnel, 303 tanks, 229 IFVs, 168 APCs, 1,561 armored fighting vehicles, 1,474 vehicles, 364 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS), 16 SAM launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 14 counter-battery warfare radars, 4 air defense radars, and 30 units of engineering and other materiel.
New: Ukrainian border guards use drones to destroy a Russian armored vehicle north of Sumy.
New: A video from the Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows Ukrainian border guards destroying a Russian armored vehicle using drones north of Sumy.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
New: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
New: Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area of the Kharkiv region, but the Russian Armed Forces prevented a breakthrough of the defense line.
Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
New: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports that on the Krasnolimansk direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division continues to advance, expanding its bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River. The report highlights the efforts to isolate the combat area, preventing Ukrainian forces from rotating troops and delivering supplies.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. The new Russian "Pirahna-13" FPV drone, designed for remote mining and capable of carrying up to 15 kg of explosives, has been introduced. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. A new message indicates a southward trajectory for drones in Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Air raid alerts have been reported for Kyiv. Reports indicate a drone hit a multi-story building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv, damaging windows and 6 cars, but causing no casualties. A new message indicates strikes in Kyivska Oblast.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in Sumy Oblast.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A new message indicates a southward trajectory for drones in Kharkivska Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. A new message indicates a north-eastern trajectory for drones in eastern Poltavska Oblast.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.
- Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is reported to be flying over the region.
- Odesa Oblast: Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
- Kherson Oblast: A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the Kherson region with a course to the south. A new message indicates that enemy drones are entering the airspace of Kherson Oblast from the occupied territories, heading north-west.
- Mykolaiv Oblast: A new message indicates a trajectory towards Kirovohradska Oblast for drones in northern Mykolaivska Oblast.
- Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
- Air raid alerts have been called off for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
- 9 drones are now reported to be circling Zaporizhzhia.
- Reports of drones being used to attack targets in Crimea. An explosion was reported in Kerch, potentially due to air defense activity. Reports that unknown drones are attacking Voronezh and Kursk in Russia.
- Video evidence of a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot using an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable.
- Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaged a cannon using drones.
- Reports of a fire near Lake Bam, on the outskirts of Novorossiysk.
- Reports of an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea.
- Reports of drone attacks on Novorossiysk, with Russian air defenses attempting to intercept them.
- Russian Telegram channels report air defense activity and the interception of drones and missiles over Sevastopol, Kerch, Taman, and the "Kavkaz" port.
- Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
- Local authorities in Anapa report air defense activity.
- A community is requesting information about sightings in local chats in Anapa.
- City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
- Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest;
- Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
- Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west;
- Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
- Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
- Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast.
- One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
- Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
- Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
- Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones.
- In the Rostov region, 16 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
- Soldiers of the 108th Air Assault Brigade shared footage of their work in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- Reports of Ukrainian air defense systems operating in the Kyiv region due to enemy drones.
- Multiple drones reported in various regions, including Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast, Kamensky (near Kryvyi Rih), east of Cherkasy, west of Poltava, near Vasylkiv, approaching Brovary from Nizhyn, and east of Konotop. One drone is reported to be north of Kyiv and another south of Kyiv, flying towards the capital from Obukhiv. Another drone is reported to be flying from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards the west and in Kirovohrad Oblast towards the east. They urge people to take shelter.
The Russian MoD claims that the Tor SAM system crews of the Vostok Group of Forces continue to cover Russian assault detachments from enemy air attacks, engaging UAVs, cruise missiles, guided air bombs, and sometimes enemy air defense systems. This highlights the importance of short-range air defense and electronic warfare in the current conflict.
New: Reports of a new drone attack on Engels, with a significant fire reported at an industrial facility. This is accompanied by multiple videos showing the fire from different perspectives.
New: Moment of drone attack on Engels captured on video. A new video shows the moment of a drone attack on Engels, Saratov Oblast.
New: Drone attacks on industrial sites. Drone attacks have targeted industrial sites in Saratov.
New: A new message indicates a trajectory towards Kirovohradska Oblast for drones in northern Mykolaivska Oblast.
New: Enemy drones are entering the airspace of Kherson Oblast from the occupied territories, heading north-west.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Trump-Putin Meeting: Reports suggest a potential phone call between Putin and Trump after January 20th and a possible face-to-face meeting in the spring, without Zelensky's participation. There are conflicting reports about potential US stance on the conflict, with TASS reporting that Trump will try to achieve a settlement favorable to Ukraine, while other sources suggest he might pressure Ukraine to cede territory.
NATO Exercises: NATO is planning large-scale exercises ("Steadfast Dart") on its eastern flank from January 13th to February 26th, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. NATO will deploy a fleet of drones in the Baltic Sea and will strengthen its military presence in the region. The new mission to ensure security will be called "Baltic Sentry".
US-China Tensions: The US has threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia.
Croatian Presidential Election: Pro-Russian incumbent Zoran Milanović reportedly won the Croatian presidential election with 77.70% of the vote.
German Party's Stance: The German party "Union of Sarah Wagenknecht - For Reason and Justice" adopted an election program calling for the resumption of supplies of Russian gas and a truce in Ukraine.
Poland-Slovakia Relations: The Polish Ministry

Situation Report