Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 14, 2025, 15:56 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have made significant advances towards Pokrovsk, capturing key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces controlling most of the city. Ukrainian forces confirmed a massive drone attack on Tula Oblast, with 16 drones shot down. A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, with the fire at the oil depot intensifying. Ukrainian forces conducted the most massive strike yet, hitting targets up to 1100 km inside Russia. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast from Kursk. A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region. The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhovo for Ukrainian forces.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex. Russian forces report they have dislodged Ukrainian forces from the territory of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar and driven them into the private sector to the southwest of the plant.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Ukrainian Ambush: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne. The battle for Neskuchne involved the Russian army liberating the important village on the junction of Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk People's Republic. Units of the 394th and 218th regiments of the 127th division, with the support of the 60th brigade of the "Vostok" group, completed the clearing of Neskuchne. Many Ukrainian Armed Forces militants surrendered. The village was lost during the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the summer of 2023. Footage of the battles and the hoisting of the Russian flag by units of the "Vostok" group in Neskuchne were shown. The clearing of about 400 buildings in the village and surrounding areas from the Ukrainian Armed Forces was completed, with Russian assault groups securing their positions. The agglomeration of Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka is located at the junction of the borders of the Donetsk People's Republic and Zaporizhzhia region and is a strategically important defense and logistics hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is gradually coming under the control of Russian units. The 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division was congratulated by the Russian Minister of Defence for the liberation of Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Krasnoarmeysk Direction: From Vozdvizhenka, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Malynivka and reached the intersection of roads. Between Dachenskyi and Novyi Trud, a pocket in the direction of Krasnoarmeysk was cleared. From Novovasylivka, Russian forces are advancing towards Uspenivka, also employing artillery and drones against it and Novooleksandrivka. An enemy tank was hit by an FPV drone attack on the eastern side of Uspenivka, although the enemy managed to pull the damaged armored vehicle away.
Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: A message from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development ("зрада" or betrayal/disaster in Ukrainian) near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.
Video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video shows a group of pigeons feeding on a street surface and shifts to focus on a group of individuals, including several men in military-style camouflage, who are seemingly assisting an older man into the back of a dark-colored SUV. The video is watermarked with "TELEGRAM CHANNEL KHARKIV LIFE," indicating its probable location within the conflict zone.
Video from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel: This video shows a television screen broadcasting a speech by Vladimir Putin. The backdrop of the broadcast includes the Kremlin in Moscow. The video captures the reactions of a young boy watching the televised speech. The boy initially appears scared by the figure on the screen, then declares that the man on TV "created our planet" and is "the main and very good." He also appears to be engaged in a celebratory event with his family, as they are toasting with glasses.
Video from the "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel: This video reportedly shows the destruction of a Russian armored vehicle fitted with improvised armor. The video highlights the vulnerability of such vehicles to Ukrainian attacks.
New: Ukrainian forces capture a group of Russian soldiers on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. The soldiers are from the 102nd Regiment of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division. The video shows the captured soldiers being interrogated by Ukrainian forces. This capture indicates a potential breakthrough or successful ambush by Ukrainian forces in the area.
New: "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel reports that "🅾️тважные" are advancing, destroying the enemy on the way to Pokrovsk. The report details combat operations of the "Center" group on January 13, focusing on the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment and personnel during offensive actions in the Pokrovsk direction.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo and Novoivanovka.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. This incident has been confirmed by a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed. Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction amounted to more than 460 soldiers, 3 tanks and 22 armored fighting vehicles, 3 Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Confirmed Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel. This reinforces the reports of continued Russian offensive operations in the area.
New: Ukrainian border guards report destroying a Russian armored personnel carrier north of Sumy. This indicates continued fighting in the region and successful Ukrainian counterattacks.
New: "Colonelcassad" reports on the situation in the Kursk region as of January 14, 2025. Key points include:
- Russian forces have inflicted significant losses on Ukrainian formations, including tank, mechanized, air assault, and territorial defense brigades.
- Three Ukrainian counterattacks have been repelled.
- Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian personnel and equipment in various locations in the Kursk and Sumy regions.
- Ukrainian losses for the day are reported as over 460 personnel, 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 22 armored fighting vehicles, 18 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and mortars.
- Total Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities are estimated at over 51,900 personnel, 303 tanks, 229 IFVs, 168 APCs, 1,561 armored fighting vehicles, 1,474 vehicles, 364 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS), 16 SAM launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 14 counter-battery warfare radars, 4 air defense radars, and 30 units of engineering and other materiel.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
A video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction. The vehicle was reportedly carrying ammunition and was destroyed by Russian forces, resulting in casualties among the Ukrainian crew.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region. This indicates continued Russian air activity in the area.
Video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video shows nighttime "Geranium" drones operating over the Kharkiv region. The footage, likely captured using night vision or surveillance equipment, highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and potentially targeting purposes. The presence of a monitor overlay with the number "1654" suggests that the video is part of an ongoing surveillance operation.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region. This demonstrates continued Ukrainian resistance and successful targeting of Russian armor.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Video Evidence of Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: A new video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 144th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the Krasnolimansk direction. The video showcases drone strikes on various military and civilian vehicles, including armored vehicles (likely BMPs or BTRs) and a truck. The use of thermal imaging suggests that the drones are being used for target acquisition in low-visibility conditions. The video also indicates the use of precision weapons, as evidenced by the successful strikes on the vehicles. The footage is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare.
New: "Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition" reports that on the Krasnolimansk direction, the 144th Motorized Rifle Division continues to advance, expanding its bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River. The report highlights the efforts to isolate the combat area, preventing Ukrainian forces from rotating troops and delivering supplies. This is leading to the imminent destruction of the remaining Ukrainian resistance in Terny. The report also mentions that Ukrainian commanders are deploying personnel to positions already occupied by Russian forces, resulting in significant losses for Ukrainian troops.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight.
Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled howitzer M109 in the Kursk direction.
Continued drone attacks:
- 2 drones are reported at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading north.
- 2 drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
- 1 drone is flying past Smila towards Kyiv Oblast.
- 2 drones are at the intersection of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
- 5 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
- 4 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- 4 drones are in the Poltava area.
- 1 drone flew past Sumy towards Okhtyrka.
- 2 drones are in the west of Kyiv Oblast.
- 1 drone is approaching Chernihiv.
- 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is flying north of Kyiv Oblast.
- 1 drone east of Zhytomyr, heading west.
- 2 drones from Chernihiv Oblast towards Vyshgorod.
- 1 drone past Boryspil heading east.
- 1 drone near Myrhorod.
- 1 drone past Sumy heading north.
- 3 new drones through Shostka towards Chernihiv Oblast.
- 2 drones over Dnipro city.
- 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
- 2 drones east of Oleksandriia, heading southwest.
- 2 drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
- A drone is on Cherkasy region, with a course towards Poltava region.
- A drone is reported on the north of the Cherkasy region with a course to the southeast.
- A drone is reported to be flying over the region.
- Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
- A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the region.
- 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
- 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
- A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
- Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
- A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course.
- One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
- A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
- Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
- A drone is also reported on the Poltava region, with a western course.
- An enemy drone is reported on the north of the Poltava region with a southwesterly course.
- A drone is reported moving south in Poltava Oblast.
- A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast.
- Kremenchuk, Kropyvnytskyi remain in shelters.
- 2 drones from Dnipropetrovsk region in the direction of Kremenchuk.
- 1 drone is around the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions.
- 1 drone from Poltava region is moving to Cherkasy region.
- 6 new drones from Sumy region in the direction of Pryluka.
- 1 new drone north of Sumy, southwesterly course.
- New groups of attack drones in Sumy region. The vector of movement is south-west.
- Drones are moving towards Chernihiv and Kyiv regions.
- 1 new drone from Berislav district in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.
- 1 new drone through Kryvyi Rih district in a northwesterly direction.
- 1 drone over Boryspil towards Vasylkiv.
- 1 drone over Nizhyn.
- 9 drones flying around Pryluky in a westerly direction.
- UAVs in the suburbs of Boryspil!
- One drone is reported to be circling over Nizhyn.
- Three drones are reported to be over Lubny, heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
- One drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is reported to be moving into the Kremenchuk district.
- One new drone has entered through Nikopol, likely following the path of a previous drone.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. Videos of the engagement have been shared. 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. This suggests a significant enhancement of Iran's drone arsenal and a potential increase in the threat posed to regional adversaries. The video highlights Iran's ability to conduct sustained drone operations, potentially including precision strikes, loitering munitions, and widespread reconnaissance.
Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The videos, watermarked with "СУДНАЯ НОЧЬ" (Judgement Night) and linked to the "sudoplatov_official" Telegram channel, suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and troop movements during night operations.
New: Ukrainian border guards use drones to destroy a Russian armored vehicle north of Sumy. This highlights the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting Russian armor.
New: A video from the Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" shows Ukrainian border guards destroying a Russian armored vehicle using drones north of Sumy. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare in targeting and destroying Russian military equipment. The use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting is highlighted, indicating a high level of coordination and technological capability.
New: Ukrainian Air Force reports the threat of enemy drones in Poltava and Chernihiv regions.
New: "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports on a massive combined attack involving ATACMS missiles, Storm Shadow cruise missiles, and drones. The attack targeted Bryansk Oblast, with Russian air defense forces reportedly intercepting all incoming threats. This demonstrates the use of a combined arms approach in Ukrainian attacks, utilizing a variety of weapons systems to overwhelm Russian defenses. The successful interception by Russian air defenses highlights their effectiveness in countering such attacks.

Other Significant Developments

Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clarified that there are no plans to transfer critically needed engineering and aviation specialists of the Air Force to infantry units. They emphasized that the Air Force is increasing its technical and flight personnel. However, some categories of Air Force personnel, after training, are being reassigned to reinforce Ground Forces and Airborne Assault Forces due to the difficult situation on the front and the shortage of infantry in many areas. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has prohibited the transfer of specialists in high-tech fields and those trained abroad on foreign weapons systems.
Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems. Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Commemorative Coins: Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
New EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
Mobilization of Prisoners: The Ukrainian government has approved a procedure for mobilizing prisoners for military service.
Strategic Partnership Agreement: Armenia is set to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the United States.
Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the European Union.
Alleged Terrorist Attack Plot: US intelligence sources warned of a potential Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes, prompting a message to Putin from the White House. The plot, allegedly aimed at causing mass casualties, was reportedly thwarted.
Impeachment Threat: The Slovak opposition plans to hold a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing his recent visit to Moscow and other foreign policy actions.
Strategic Implications: The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities. The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict. The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale. The transfer of Ukrainian Air Force personnel to infantry roles and the reduction of mobile fire groups, as reported by Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya, indicate a significant shift in Ukraine's military strategy. This move suggests that Ukraine may be facing a shortage of infantry troops and is prioritizing ground operations over air defense. The reduction of mobile fire groups could leave some regions more vulnerable to Russian air attacks, while the transfer of technical personnel could impact the operational readiness of Ukraine's Air Force. The reported strike on the Saratov oil refinery by Ukrainian forces and confirmation of other strikes by the Ukrainian Security Service and Defense Forces highlight Ukraine's continued efforts to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. These actions could disrupt Russia's war effort by damaging its industrial capacity and supply chains. Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia

Situation Report