Key Military Situation Updates in Ukraine, January 14, 2025

Donetsk Region

• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye, making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with intense urban warfare ongoing. Russian forces control nearly all of Toretsk except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Russian troops advanced 300 meters and reached the Fomikha mine. They also advanced to the Toretska mine west of Krymske. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• New Battles: Fighting is ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. Fighting is also ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported. Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka.
• Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
• Ukrainian Ambush: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
• Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne. The battle for Neskuchne involved the Russian army liberating the important village on the junction of Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk People's Republic. Units of the 394th and 218th regiments of the 127th division, with the support of the 60th brigade of the "Vostok" group, completed the clearing of Neskuchne. Many Ukrainian Armed Forces militants surrendered. The village was lost during the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the summer of 2023. Footage of the battles and the hoisting of the Russian flag by units of the "Vostok" group in Neskuchne were shown. The clearing of about 400 buildings in the village and surrounding areas from the Ukrainian Armed Forces was completed, with Russian assault groups securing their positions. The agglomeration of Neskuchne, Vremivka, and Velyka Novosilka is located at the junction of the borders of the Donetsk People's Republic and Zaporizhzhia region and is a strategically important defense and logistics hub for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is gradually coming under the control of Russian units. The 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division was congratulated by the Russian Minister of Defence for the liberation of Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Krasnoarmeysk Direction: From Vozdvizhenka, Russian forces attacked in the direction of Malynivka and reached the intersection of roads. Between Dachenskyi and Novyi Trud, a pocket in the direction of Krasnoarmeysk was cleared. From Novovasylivka, Russian forces are advancing towards Uspenivka, also employing artillery and drones against it and Novooleksandrivka. An enemy tank was hit by an FPV drone attack on the eastern side of Uspenivka, although the enemy managed to pull the damaged armored vehicle away.
• Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: A message from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development ("зрада" or betrayal/disaster in Ukrainian) near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo and Novoivanovka.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
• Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
• Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. This incident has been confirmed by a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
• Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
• Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
• Reinforcements and Losses: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
• Casualties: Losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction amounted to more than 460 soldiers, 3 tanks and 22 armored fighting vehicles, 3 Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled.
• Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces are advancing south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
• Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
• Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
• Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian 155-mm self-propelled howitzer M109 in the Kursk direction.
• Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
• Continued drone attacks:
  • 2 drones are reported at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading north.
  • 2 drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • 1 drone is flying past Smila towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • 2 drones are at the intersection of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
  • 5 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • 4 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • 4 drones are in the Poltava area.
  • 1 drone flew past Sumy towards Okhtyrka.
  • 2 drones are in the west of Kyiv Oblast.
  • 1 drone is approaching Chernihiv.
  • 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is flying north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • 1 drone east of Zhytomyr, heading west.
  • 2 drones from Chernihiv Oblast towards Vyshgorod.
  • 1 drone past Boryspil heading east.
  • 1 drone near Myrhorod.
  • 1 drone past Sumy heading north.
  • 3 new drones through Shostka towards Chernihiv Oblast.
  • 2 drones over Dnipro city.
  • 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • 2 drones east of Oleksandriia, heading southwest.
  • 2 drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
  • A drone is on Cherkasy region, with a course towards Poltava region.
  • A drone is reported on the north of the Cherkasy region with a course to the southeast.
  • A drone is reported to be flying over the region.
  • Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
  • A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the region.
  • 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
  • 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
  • A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
  • Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
  • A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course.
  • One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
  • A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
  • Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
  • A drone is also reported on the Poltava region, with a western course.
  • An enemy drone is reported on the north of the Poltava region with a southwesterly course.
  • A drone is reported moving south in Poltava Oblast.
  • A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
  • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • Kremenchuk, Kropyvnytskyi remain in shelters.
  • 2 drones from Dnipropetrovsk region in the direction of Kremenchuk.
  • 1 drone is around the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions.
  • 1 drone from Poltava region is moving to Cherkasy region.
  • 6 new drones from Sumy region in the direction of Pryluka.
  • 1 new drone north of Sumy, southwesterly course.
  • New groups of attack drones in Sumy region. The vector of movement is south-west.
  • Drones are moving towards Chernihiv and Kyiv regions.
  • 1 new drone from Berislav district in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.
  • 1 new drone through Kryvyi Rih district in a northwesterly direction.
  • 1 drone over Boryspil towards Vasylkiv.
  • 1 drone over Nizhyn.
  • 9 drones flying around Pryluky in a westerly direction.
  • UAVs in the suburbs of Boryspil!
  • 1 drone is circling over Nizhyn.
  • 3 drones are over Lubny, flying towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • 1 drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is moving into Kremenchuk district.
  • 1 new drone has entered through Nikopol, likely following the path of the previous drone.
  • One drone is reported to be circling over Nizhyn.
  • Three drones are reported to be over Lubny, heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is reported to be moving into the Kremenchuk district.
  • One new drone has entered through Nikopol, likely following the path of a previous drone.
• Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. Videos of the engagement have been shared. 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.

Other Significant Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems. Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
• Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
• Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
• Commemorative Coins: Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
• New EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
• Mobilization of Prisoners: The Ukrainian government has approved a procedure for mobilizing prisoners for military service.
• Strategic Partnership Agreement: Armenia is set to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the United States.
• Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the European Union.
• Alleged Terrorist Attack Plot: US intelligence sources warned of a potential Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes, prompting a message to Putin from the White House. The plot, allegedly aimed at causing mass casualties, was reportedly thwarted.
• Impeachment Threat: The Slovak opposition plans to hold a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing his recent visit to Moscow and other foreign policy actions.
• Strategic Implications: The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities. The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces. The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict. The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale. The transfer of Ukrainian Air Force personnel to infantry roles and the reduction of mobile fire groups, as reported by Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya, indicate a significant shift in Ukraine's military strategy. This move suggests that Ukraine may be facing a shortage of infantry troops and is prioritizing ground operations over air defense. The reduction of mobile fire groups could leave some regions more vulnerable to Russian air attacks, while the transfer of technical personnel could impact the operational readiness of Ukraine's Air Force. The reported strike on the Saratov oil refinery by Ukrainian forces and confirmation of other strikes by the Ukrainian Security Service and Defense Forces highlight Ukraine's continued efforts to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. These actions could disrupt Russia's war effort by damaging its industrial capacity and supply chains. Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US. Reports indicate that Russian forces are making progress south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes. The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare. Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services. The mobilization of prisoners in Ukraine for military service marks a significant development, potentially increasing the number of troops available for the war effort. Armenia's intention to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the US and its move towards EU membership signify a potential shift in its geopolitical alignment. The alleged Russian plot to use explosives on cargo planes, as reported by US intelligence, indicates a potential escalation of the conflict into a new domain, targeting civilian infrastructure. The threat of impeachment against Slovak Prime Minister Fico due to his foreign policy actions, particularly his visit to Moscow, highlights the internal political divisions within Slovakia regarding its stance on the conflict.
• New Developments from Recent Messages: A video from the "Butusov Plus" Telegram channel reportedly shows the destruction of a Russian armored vehicle fitted with improvised armor. The video highlights the vulnerability of such vehicles to Ukrainian attacks. Ukrainian forces received 320 additional drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the liberation of the settlement of Neskuchne in the Velyka Novosilka direction. The liberation of Neskuchne was also confirmed by pro-Russian sources, indicating a significant Russian advance in the area. The 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division was congratulated by the Russian Minister of Defence for the liberation of Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Strategic Implications: The destruction of the Russian armored vehicle, as shown in the video, highlights the effectiveness of Ukrainian anti-armor tactics and the vulnerability of Russian vehicles, even those with improvised armor. This could lead to a reassessment of Russian armored vehicle design and deployment strategies. The additional drones received by Ukrainian forces will enhance their reconnaissance and strike capabilities, potentially allowing them to target Russian positions and vehicles more effectively. The official confirmation of the liberation of Neskuchne by the Russian Ministry of Defense underscores the strategic importance of this settlement and marks a significant Russian advance in the Velyka Novosilka direction. This could lead to further Russian offensive operations in the area. The liberation of Terny and the involvement of the 144th Guards Motorized Rifle Division suggest a concerted Russian effort to achieve breakthroughs in the Donetsk region. The congratulations from the Russian Minister of Defence indicate the high priority placed on these operations.
• Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. This suggests a significant enhancement of Iran's drone arsenal and a potential increase in the threat posed to regional adversaries. The video highlights Iran's ability to conduct sustained drone operations, potentially including precision strikes, loitering munitions, and widespread reconnaissance.
• Continued Reports of Drone Activity in Multiple Regions: Drone activity persists across multiple regions in Ukraine, with reports of drones in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
• Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The videos, watermarked with "СУДНАЯ НОЧЬ" (Judgement Night) and linked to the "sudoplatov_official" Telegram channel, suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and troop movements during night operations.
• Massive Drone Attack on Tula Oblast Confirmed: 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. This confirms earlier reports of a massive drone attack on the region and highlights the increasing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to targets deep inside Russian territory.
• North Korean Missile Test: South Korean military reports that North Korea has launched several suspected short-range ballistic missiles. This development, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, could further escalate regional tensions and potentially impact the supply of weapons to Russia.
• US Political Developments: Allies of US President-elect Donald Trump have submitted a bill to "buy Greenland," titled "Make Greenland Great Again." This move, while seemingly outlandish, could be aimed at securing strategic resources and influence in the Arctic region.
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes in Kursk Region: The new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region. This supports previous reports of Russian offensive operations in the area and highlights the use of airpower to target Ukrainian positions.
• Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.
• HAMAS Agreement: Reports indicate that HAMAS has accepted a draft agreement to cease fire in the Gaza Strip and release hostages. Israel will release 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 serving life sentences.
• Baltic Sea: NATO countries will seek solutions to control ships in the Baltic Sea beyond their waters, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said.
• New Ukrainian Strikes: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported the most massive strike on military facilities of the occupiers at a distance of 200 to 1100 km deep in the Russian Federation. The targets were hit in the Bryansk, Saratov, Tula regions and the Republic of Tatarstan. The "Kombinat Kristal" oil storage base in Engels, Saratov region, was successfully attacked again, where the fire that lasted 5 days after the previous strike was just extinguished. The Bryansk chemical plant in the city of Seltso, a strategic object of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, was also hit. Ammunition for cannon artillery, rocket-propelled grenade launchers, aviation, engineering ammunition and components of Kh-59 cruise missiles are manufactured there. In addition, during the attack, two enemy anti-aircraft missile systems - "Tor" and "Buk" - were destroyed. The Saratov oil refinery and the Kazanorgsintez plant were also hit. A fire broke out at both facilities.
• Air Alert in Kremenchuk: An air alert has been issued in Kremenchuk, Poltava region due to an enemy drone approaching from the southwest.
• New Russian Sanctions: The Voronezh authorities explained the delay in SMS alerts by the limited technical capabilities of operators. Other methods of informing the population are being used, the regional government told TASS. A Russian court sentenced 56-year-old Latvian mercenary Uldis Volmars, fighting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to 14 years in prison in absentia, the Prosecutor General's Office of Russia reported. He reportedly received over 375,000 rubles for his mercenary activities.
• Fundraising for ASTRA: The independent Russian-language publication ASTRA is continuing its fundraising campaign for employee salaries in January. They have raised $2063 so far.
• Nikolay Patrushev's Statement: Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev stated that "Ukraine will cease to exist in 2025."
• Liberation of Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian army has liberated Neskuchne, a strategically important village on the junction of Zaporizhzhia and the Donetsk People's Republic.
• Ukrainian Drone Shot Down: A Ukrainian drone reportedly shot down an enemy drone using a dropped munition, a claimed first in the history of warfare.
• Continued Fighting: Video evidence shows continued fighting in various locations, including the use of FPV drones and artillery.
• Fundraising for Ukrainian Forces: A fundraising campaign is underway to purchase 500 tourniquets, GPS navigators, and equipment for Ukrainian forces.
• Prisoners Released to Fight: Convicts who were sentenced for the murder of a student have been released from prison to fight in Ukraine.
• Propaganda and Recruitment: A video from the Ukrainian side shows a soldier encouraging enlistment in the Russian army, promising high pay, but highlighting the high risk of death.
• Drone Attack Aftermath: Reports of the consequences of a drone attack in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia region, where a 47-year-old woman died.
• Drone Attack on "Turkish Stream" Infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones.
• Ukrainian General Staff Addresses Air Force Personnel Reassignment: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine clarified that there are no plans to transfer critically needed engineering and aviation specialists of the Air Force to infantry units. They emphasized that the Air Force is increasing its technical and flight personnel. However, some categories of Air Force personnel, after training, are being reassigned to reinforce Ground Forces and Airborne Assault Forces due to the difficult situation on the front and the shortage of infantry in many areas. The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has prohibited the transfer of specialists in high-tech fields and those trained abroad on foreign weapons systems.
• Strategic Implications: This clarification from the General Staff indicates a strategic decision to maintain and strengthen the Air Force's technical capabilities while addressing the pressing need for infantry on the front lines. The reassignment of some personnel to ground forces is a temporary measure to bolster defenses, but the protection of specialized skills underscores the importance of maintaining a technological edge.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant developments in multiple regions. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries, and have reportedly conducted the most massive strike yet, hitting targets up to 1100 km inside Russia. The potential for a major development near Velyka Novoselka adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation in the Donetsk region. The confirmed Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region and the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region indicate continued Russian air activity. The report on Iran's enhanced drone capabilities raises concerns about a potential increase in regional tensions and the possibility of these drones being supplied to Russia. The mobilization of prisoners in Ukraine for military service marks a significant development, potentially increasing the number of troops available for the war effort. The liberation of Neskuchne and Terny by Russian forces represents a significant shift in the balance of power in the region and could lead to further Russian advances. The Ukrainian forces' receipt of additional drones will enhance their capabilities, but they face a challenging situation in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The ongoing fighting and the high number of casualties underscore the human cost of the conflict. The new messages add further details about drone warfare, highlighting the increasing use of FPV drones by both sides and the continued threat posed by Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory. The reported agreement between HAMAS and Israel, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, could have broader geopolitical implications. The statement from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk about NATO seeking solutions to control ships in the Baltic Sea indicates a potential escalation of tensions in the region. The clarification from the Ukrainian General Staff regarding the reassignment of Air Force personnel indicates a strategic decision to maintain and strengthen the Air Force's technical capabilities while addressing the pressing need for infantry on the front lines. The reassignment of some personnel to ground forces is a temporary measure to bolster defenses, but the protection of specialized skills underscores the importance of maintaining a technological edge.