Key Military Situation Updates in Ukraine, January 14, 2025

Donetsk Region

Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye, and are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. They are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with intense urban warfare ongoing. Russian forces control nearly all of Toretsk except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Russian troops advanced 300 meters and reached the Fomikha mine. They also advanced to the Toretska mine west of Krymske.
New Battles: Fighting is ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. Fighting is also ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported. Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Ukrainian Ambush: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo and Novoivanovka.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in the death of a woman.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues. In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans. Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
Disrupting Evacuation: Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces are advancing south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Liberation of Terny and Neskuchne: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
Drone Strikes: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations. Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone.
Drone Shootdown: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight.

Other Significant Developments

Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements. Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US. The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico.
Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems.
Attempted Poisoning: Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
Oil Refinery Strike: Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Commemorative Coins: Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant developments in multiple regions:

Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, making substantial gains towards Pokrovsk and capturing key areas such as Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, with Russian forces controlling most of the city and engaging in intense urban warfare. New battles have erupted near Kotlyno, Udachne, Lysivka, and Sukhyi Yar, as Russian forces attempt to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Kursk Region: A Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have renewed their offensive, making a major 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha and capturing several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka. Intense fighting continues in multiple locations, with reports of North Korean soldiers participating on the Russian side.

Kharkiv Region: Russian forces are advancing towards Lozova and in Dvurichna, with clashes reported along the Kharkiv axis.

Luhansk Region: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, with Russian forces attempting to capture heights near Ivanovka and storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have liberated Terny and Neskuchne.

Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, chemical plants, and airfields in Engels, Kazan, and other locations. Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.

Strategic Implications:

The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces.
The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities.
The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures.
The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces.
The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict.
The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale.
The transfer of Ukrainian Air Force personnel to infantry roles and the reduction of mobile fire groups, as reported by Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya, indicate a significant shift in Ukraine's military strategy. This move suggests that Ukraine may be facing a shortage of infantry troops and is prioritizing ground operations over air defense. The reduction of mobile fire groups could leave some regions more vulnerable to Russian air attacks, while the transfer of technical personnel could impact the operational readiness of Ukraine's Air Force.
The reported strike on the Saratov oil refinery by Ukrainian forces and confirmation of other strikes by the Ukrainian Security Service and Defense Forces highlight Ukraine's continued efforts to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russia. These actions could disrupt Russia's war effort by damaging its industrial capacity and supply chains.
Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements.
Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
Reports indicate that Russian forces are making progress south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico.
Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.

These new developments further emphasize the intensity of the conflict, the widespread use of drones, the targeting of critical infrastructure, and the ongoing political and diplomatic maneuvering. The situation remains highly fluid, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage on the battlefield and in the information space.

Situation Report