Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

Current Time: Tuesday, January 14, 2025, 10:56:36 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured several key areas and are advancing towards Pokrovsk. The situation in Toretsk is critical for Ukrainian forces. In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are making significant advances, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough near Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions, including Ukrainian drone attacks deep inside Russian territory targeting oil depots, chemical plants, and airfields.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove and are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. They have captured Shevchenko, Yantarne, and Peschanoye, and are pressing on in multiple surrounding settlements. Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Russian forces control nearly all of Toretsk except for the "Toreskaya" mine, with intense urban warfare ongoing.
New Battles: Fighting is ongoing for Kotlyno and Udachne, with Russian forces advancing south of Udachne and attacking Ukrainian positions to the east. Fighting is also ongoing for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with slow progress reported. Russian forces are attacking the outskirts of Dmytriv (Myrnohrad) and expanding their control near the road junction of Yelyzavetivka - Nova Poltavka - Tarasivka - Baranivka.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian soldiers are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling about 20% of the plant's territory.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces report repelling an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a significant breakthrough near Kositsa.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo and Novoivanovka.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
New: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis, and Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51".
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
New: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
New: Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in the death of a woman.
New: Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka.
New: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
New: Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.
New: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
New: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
New: In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
New: Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
New: Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
New: Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
New: Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone.
New: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
New: Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) near Pokrovsk, eliminating a group of Russian soldiers.
New: Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in the death of a woman.
New: Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka.
New: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Overnight, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 Russian drones, with 34 classified as decoys.
New: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
New: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
New: Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.
New: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
New: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. They also destroyed Ukrainian firing points with a 2S9 Nona-S self-propelled mortar.
New: In the Kursk region, Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
New: Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
New: Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region. At least 9 Russian soldiers were targeted, and 5 golf carts were hit.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target.
New: Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations.
New: Ukrainian forces targeted and damaged a Russian T-80 tank with a drone.
New: Russian forces are advancing towards Lyman from the bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, having infiltrated Ukrainian positions near Kolodezi.
New: Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in the death of a woman.
New: Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Fighting also continues near Promin (Luch), Myrolyubivka, and along the T 0504 road near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, Tarasivka, and Baranivka.
New: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Overnight, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 Russian drones, with 34 classified as decoys.
New: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. The "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
New: An abandoned "Pyaterochka" store was discovered in Sudzha. A Ukrainian soldier filmed a video mocking the limited selection of goods in the store. He was later captured by Russian forces.
New: The head of Yakutia presented a new Yakut knife to a Russian soldier who defeated a Ukrainian soldier in hand-to-hand combat. The soldier had lost his previous knife in battle.
New: European analysts believe that the war will not stop with the arrival of Trump. At most, there will be a respite during which the parties will restore their forces in order to clash again. The ideal scenario for our enemies is a 100-year war on the borders of Russia, in which Moscow will lose resources and people.
New: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with significant developments in multiple regions:

Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, making substantial gains towards Pokrovsk and capturing key areas such as Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, with Russian forces controlling most of the city and engaging in intense urban warfare. New battles have erupted near Kotlyno, Udachne, Lysivka, and Sukhyi Yar, as Russian forces attempt to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Kursk Region: A Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Russian forces have renewed their offensive, making a major 10-kilometer breakthrough near Sudzha and capturing several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka. Intense fighting continues in multiple locations, with reports of North Korean soldiers participating on the Russian side.

Kharkiv Region: Russian forces are advancing towards Lozova and in Dvurichna, with clashes reported along the Kharkiv axis.

Luhansk Region: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, with Russian forces attempting to capture heights near Ivanovka and storming Zahryzove.

Drone Warfare: Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, chemical plants, and airfields in Engels, Kazan, and other locations. Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.

New Developments:

Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight.
Ukrainian forces report a successful ambush by snipers near Pokrovsk.
Russian aviation conducted an airstrike on a boarding school in Sudzha, Kursk region, resulting in casualties.
Video evidence shows various drone strikes by both Russian and Ukrainian forces, highlighting the ongoing intensity of drone warfare.
Reports indicate ongoing positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing.
Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.

Strategic Implications:

The continued Russian advances in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces.
The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities.
The targeting of critical infrastructure highlights the need for enhanced protection measures.
The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the significant Russian breakthrough near Sudzha indicate a shift in momentum in favor of Russian forces.
The participation of North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, could indicate a broadening of the conflict.
The ongoing drone attacks deep inside Russian territory demonstrate Ukraine's ability to project power and disrupt Russian logistics and morale.
The new messages add the following updates to the situation:
- Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 classified as "decoys."
- Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia.
- An air raid alert has been issued in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Russian forces are reportedly disrupting a Ukrainian evacuation in the Kursk region.
- Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for the country currently called Ukraine, but the Eurasian context will be paramount in any agreements.
- Lavrov also criticized Germany and Japan for their subservience to the US.
- Reports indicate that Russian forces are making progress south of Kupyansk, potentially cutting off Ukrainian retreat routes.
- Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force, including technicians and mechanics, are being transferred to the infantry, while mobile fire groups are being reduced.
- The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico.
- Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia, which produces explosives and components for various weapons systems.
- Reports of a new series of commemorative coins issued by the Republican Center for Unmanned Systems named after Vladimir Zhoga, highlighting the importance of drone warfare.
- Reports of an attempted poisoning of employees at a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region, allegedly orchestrated by Ukrainian special services.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a strike on the Saratov oil refinery, causing a fire.

These new developments further emphasize the intensity of the conflict, the widespread use of drones, the targeting of critical infrastructure, and the ongoing political and diplomatic maneuvering. The situation remains highly fluid, with both sides attempting to gain an advantage on the battlefield and in the information space.

Situation Report