Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 14, 2025, 06:56 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured Shevchenko, Kurakhove, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk, advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian sources reporting that only a small part of the city remains under Ukrainian control, and Russian sources claiming the liberation of the city is almost complete. Russian troops are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians in Toretsk, complicating Ukrainian defensive efforts. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides, including over 350 Ukrainian military personnel reportedly lost in a single day. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions, including new reports of drone activity in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 60 out of 94 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with another 17 drones confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast and another 17 over Orlov Oblast. A Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Novohrodivka is reported, and there are reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, while the US has imposed new sanctions on Russia, which the Hungarian Foreign Minister says are creating serious problems for Central Europe. Ten EU countries have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports. The Armenian Foreign Minister is set to sign a strategic partnership document with the US.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove for Ukrainian forces.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank, equipped with additional drone protection, in the defense of Toretsk.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine, but it has since been lifted in most regions except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
Powerful explosion in Kramatorsk: Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed.
Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Night Operations: Russian forces targeted the Sumy Oblast with airstrikes and Geran drones.
Disrupting Troop Redeployment: Russian artillery disrupted a Ukrainian troop redeployment to the Kursk region, eliminating 3 armored vehicles and 20 personnel.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Video of destroyed Ukrainian BMP CV-90: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction.
Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. New videos show the moment of the drone attack and the resulting fire.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
Continued drone attacks: Reports of numerous drones across various regions, including Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, Zhytomyr, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
New Drone Launch System: ZALA has introduced a new compact and lightweight launch system for the "Lancet" series, specifically for the largest type, "Product 51". This system can be carried by a single operator and deployed in under a minute. It has been tested in combat and is in serial production.
Drone Attack on Saratov: Ukrainian drones attacked industrial enterprises in Saratov, causing damage.
Alleged Attempted Poisoning near Yaroslavl: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city and reportedly disguising themselves as civilians to complicate defensive efforts. Ukrainian forces are using a captured T-80 tank to defend Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported, including over 350 Ukrainian military personnel in a single day. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries, and now a command post in Novohrodivka. The potential for a major development near Velyka Novoselka adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation in the Donetsk region. The confirmed Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region and the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region indicate continued Russian air activity. The report on Iran's enhanced drone capabilities raises concerns about a potential increase in regional tensions and the possibility of these drones being supplied to Russia. The massive drone attack on Tula Oblast, with 17 drones shot down, and on Orlov Oblast, with another 17 drones shot down, highlights the increasing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to targets deep inside Russian territory.

New Developments from Recent Messages:

Temporary Flight Restrictions in Penza and Ulyanovsk: New restrictions on the arrival and departure of aircraft have been introduced at the airports of Penza and Ulyanovsk, adding to the list of airports with such restrictions (Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, and Tambov). Restrictions have been lifted in Kaluga and Tambov.
Airports Closed Due to Drone Attacks: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Armenian Foreign Minister to Sign Strategic Partnership Document with US: The Armenian Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State will sign a document on strategic partnership in Washington.
Ten EU Countries Call for Ban on Russian Gas Imports: Ten EU countries, including the Baltic States, Poland, and Finland, have called for a complete ban on Russian gas imports, accelerating the timeline outlined in the RePowerEU strategy.
Explosions near Vasylkiv Airfield: Explosions have been reported near the Vasylkiv airfield in the Kyiv region.
Ukrainian General Staff Confirms Naval Situation: The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed the presence of 8 Russian warships in the Black Sea, including 4 Kalibr missile carriers with a total of 28 missiles, and 7 warships in the Mediterranean Sea, including 2 Kalibr carriers with a total of 22 missiles. No Russian warships are present in the Azov Sea.
New Drone Attack on Engels: Reports of a new drone attack on Engels, with a significant fire reported at an industrial facility. This is accompanied by multiple videos showing the fire from different perspectives.
Moment of Drone Attack on Engels Captured on Video: A new video shows the moment of a drone attack on Engels, Saratov Oblast.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Sites: Drone attacks have targeted industrial sites in Engels and Kazan, causing damage and fires. Schools in Saratov and Engels will switch to remote learning due to the threat of drone attacks.
Air Defense: Russian air defense forces have reportedly shot down 17 drones over the Orlov region.
Zaporizhzhia Front: Nighttime shelling by Russian "Uragan" MLRS reported on the Zaporizhzhia front, specifically in the Kamenske direction.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Engels: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days.
Drone Attack on Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days.
Drone Attack on Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days.
Drone Attack on Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days.
Drone Attack on Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days.
Drone Attack on Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial enterprises in Saratov and Engels, causing damage.
Drone Attacks on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial
Alleged Attempted Poisoning: The FSB claims to have prevented an attempt to poison employees of a defense enterprise in the Yaroslavl region.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldier: A Ukrainian soldier who mocked an abandoned "Pyaterochka" store in Sudzha was captured by Russian forces.
Potential Uprising in Ukrainian Military: A captured Ukrainian soldier claims that there is a growing discontent among Ukrainian soldiers and a potential for an uprising against the Ukrainian government.
Drone Attack on Oil Depot: The oil depot in Engels has been attacked again by drones, causing a significant fire. The fire has been ongoing for several days, with reports of new explosions. The oil depot has been burning for almost a week now.
Drone Attack on Kazan: A drone attack on Kazan has targeted a liquefied gas base near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant, causing a large fire.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline.
Drone Attack on Civilian Car: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks have been reported in Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea, with explosions occurring in these areas.
Drone Attacks on Multiple Regions: Drone attacks have been reported in Rostov, Tula, Tambov, Voronezh, Kazan, Saratov, and Engels.
Drone Attacks on Airports: The airports of Penza, Ulyanovsk, Kazan, and Saratov are closed due to drone attacks.
Drone Attacks on Industrial Enterprises: Drone attacks have targeted industrial
Drone strike on a hiding place of the enemy in Dzerzhinsk: A Russian drone has attacked an alleged hiding place of the enemy in Dzerzhinsk.
Activity of the enemy tactical aviation in the northeast: Enemy tactical aviation is active in the northeast, with a threat of the use of air weapons.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and now claim to have captured Peschanoye. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka. One of the two routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro has been reportedly cut off by Russian forces.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The new claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car in the Kursk region, if true, further escalates the conflict and raises concerns about civilian casualties. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, although the cause is still unknown.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for

Situation Report