Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 14, 2025, 03:26 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured Shevchenko, Kurakhove, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk, advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian sources reporting that only a small part of the city remains under Ukrainian control and Russian sources claiming the liberation of the city is almost complete. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions, including new reports of drone activity in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 60 out of 94 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. Ukrainian forces have confirmed a massive drone attack on Tula Oblast, with 16 drones shot down. A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhovo for Ukrainian forces.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
• Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
• Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
• Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Reports of fighting near Kurakhovo and Andriivka: Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
• Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: A message from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development ("зрада" or betrayal/disaster in Ukrainian) near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
• 10-kilometer breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
• Russian advances on western and northern flanks: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• Liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
• Cleanup of Pogrebki and assault on Makhnovka: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
• Russian advance in Sudzha area: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
• Reinforcement of Kositsa: The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
• Situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki: The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
• Destruction of enemy armored personnel carrier: The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
• Clearing of Berdin: Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
• Russian offensive near Leonidovo: Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
• Fighting near Zamostye: Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
• Capture of two North Korean soldiers: Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region.
• Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. This incident has been confirmed by a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
• Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed.
• Positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes: A new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region, targeting Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel. This reinforces the reports of continued Russian offensive operations in the area.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
• Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
• A video from "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel: This video reportedly shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP CV-90 in the Kupyansk direction. The vehicle was reportedly carrying ammunition and was destroyed by Russian forces, resulting in casualties among the Ukrainian crew.
• Guided Aerial Bomb Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that Russian forces are using guided aerial bombs (KAB) to attack targets in the Kharkiv region. This indicates continued Russian air activity in the area.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
• Fighting in Lyman direction: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
• Destruction of Russian Zala reconnaissance drone: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
• Continued drone attacks:
  • 2 drones are reported at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading north.
  • 2 drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast.
  • 1 drone is flying past Smila towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • 2 drones are at the intersection of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts.
  • 5 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • 4 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • 4 drones are in the Poltava area.
  • 1 drone flew past Sumy towards Okhtyrka.
  • 2 drones are in the west of Kyiv Oblast.
  • 1 drone is approaching Chernihiv.
  • 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is flying north of Kyiv Oblast.
  • 1 drone east of Zhytomyr, heading west.
  • 2 drones from Chernihiv Oblast towards Vyshgorod.
  • 1 drone past Boryspil heading east.
  • 1 drone near Myrhorod.
  • 1 drone past Sumy heading north.
  • 3 new drones through Shostka towards Chernihiv Oblast.
  • 2 drones over Dnipro city.
  • 3 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • 2 drones east of Oleksandriia, heading southwest.
  • 2 drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
  • A drone is on Cherkasy region, with a course towards Poltava region.
  • A drone is reported on the north of the Cherkasy region with a course to the southeast.
  • A drone is reported to be flying over the region.
  • Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
  • A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the region.
  • 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy.
  • 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest.
  • A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
  • Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west.
  • A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course.
  • One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course.
  • A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course.
  • Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny.
  • A drone is also reported on the Poltava region, with a western course.
  • An enemy drone is reported on the north of the Poltava region with a southwesterly course.
  • A drone is reported moving south in Poltava Oblast.
  • A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
  • One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast.
  • Kremenchuk, Kropyvnytskyi remain in shelters.
  • 2 drones from Dnipropetrovsk region in the direction of Kremenchuk.
  • 1 drone is around the intersection of Zhytomyr and Kyiv regions.
  • 1 drone from Poltava region is moving to Cherkasy region.
  • 6 new drones from Sumy region in the direction of Pryluka.
  • 1 new drone north of Sumy, southwesterly course.
  • New groups of attack drones in Sumy region. The vector of movement is south-west.
  • Drones are moving towards Chernihiv and Kyiv regions.
  • 1 new drone from Berislav district in the direction of Kryvyi Rih.
  • 1 new drone through Kryvyi Rih district in a northwesterly direction.
  • 1 drone over Boryspil towards Vasylkiv.
  • 1 drone over Nizhyn.
  • 9 drones flying around Pryluky in a westerly direction.
  • UAVs in the suburbs of Boryspil!
  • 1 drone is circling over Nizhyn.
  • 3 drones are over Lubny, flying towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • 1 drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is moving into Kremenchuk district.
  • 1 new drone has entered through Nikopol, likely following the path of the previous drone.
• Drone attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. Videos of the engagement have been shared. 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor.
• Iran's Drone Capabilities: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases a large number of Iranian drones, reportedly with a range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities. This suggests a significant enhancement of Iran's drone arsenal and a potential increase in the threat posed to regional adversaries. The video highlights Iran's ability to conduct sustained drone operations, potentially including precision strikes, loitering munitions, and widespread reconnaissance.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries. The potential for a major development near Velyka Novoselka adds another layer of uncertainty to the situation in the Donetsk region. The confirmed Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region and the use of guided aerial bombs in the Kharkiv region indicate continued Russian air activity. The report on Iran's enhanced drone capabilities raises concerns about a potential increase in regional tensions and the possibility of these drones being supplied to Russia.

New Developments from Recent Messages:

• Continued Reports of Drone Activity in Multiple Regions: Drone activity persists across multiple regions in Ukraine, with reports of drones in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • One drone is reported to be circling over Nizhyn.
  • Three drones are reported to be over Lubny, heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is reported to be moving into the Kremenchuk district.
  • One new drone has entered through Nikopol, likely following the path of a previous drone.
• Russian FPV Drone Strikes: Videos from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel show Russian forces using FPV drones to target Ukrainian equipment in the Pokrovsk and Kharkiv directions. The videos, watermarked with "СУДНАЯ НОЧЬ" (Judgement Night) and linked to the "sudoplatov_official" Telegram channel, suggest a coordinated effort to disrupt Ukrainian logistics and troop movements during night operations. These videos are likely being used for propaganda purposes to showcase Russian military successes.
• Massive Drone Attack on Tula Oblast Confirmed: 16 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. This confirms earlier reports of a massive drone attack on the region and highlights the increasing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to targets deep inside Russian territory.
• North Korean Missile Test: South Korean military reports that North Korea has launched several suspected short-range ballistic missiles. This development, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, could further escalate regional tensions and potentially impact the supply of weapons to Russia.
• US Political Developments: Allies of US President-elect Donald Trump have submitted a bill to "buy Greenland," titled "Make Greenland Great Again." This move, while seemingly outlandish, could be aimed at securing strategic resources and influence in the Arctic region.
• Confirmed Russian Airstrikes in Kursk Region: The new video from the Russian Ministry of Defense confirms that Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters to conduct airstrikes in the Kursk region. This supports previous reports of Russian offensive operations in the area and highlights the use of airpower to target Ukrainian positions.
• Potential for Major Developments near Velyka Novoselka: The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel suggests an impending significant development near Velyka Novoselka. This could indicate a potential breakthrough, encirclement, or major loss for Ukrainian forces in this area. The provided map analysis supports this notion, highlighting a Russian push towards Velyka Novoselka and the establishment of new Russian-controlled territories in the vicinity.
• Iran's Enhanced Drone Capabilities: The video showcasing Iran's large and diverse drone arsenal, with a reported range of over 2000 km and stealth capabilities, is a significant development. This suggests a substantial increase in Iran's ability to project power and conduct drone warfare. It also raises concerns about the potential transfer of these advanced drones to Russia, which could further complicate the conflict in Ukraine.
• Video Evidence of Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: A new video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows Russian forces from the 144th Motorized Rifle Division operating in the Krasnolimansk direction. The video showcases drone strikes on various military and civilian vehicles, including armored vehicles (likely BMPs or BTRs) and a truck. The use of thermal imaging suggests that the drones are being used for target acquisition in low-visibility conditions. The video also indicates the use of precision weapons, as evidenced by the successful strikes on the vehicles. The footage is likely being used for propaganda purposes to demonstrate the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare.
• Development of Computerized Fire Control System: The "Kalashnikov" concern has reportedly developed a computerized fire control system with a scope for small arms. The system uses machine learning to automatically detect targets and can engage them when aimed. This development could potentially enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of Russian infantry units.
• Resettlement of Ukrainian Citizens in Russia: The Khabarovsk regional police have issued housing certificates to 22 Ukrainian citizens who have arrived in Russia for permanent residence. The certificates are part of a state program to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad. The recipients include families from the Luhansk and Poltava regions who fled the conflict zone. This development highlights the ongoing efforts by Russia to resettle Ukrainian citizens in its territory and could potentially lead to demographic shifts in the region.
• Continued Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drones continue to target Russian territory, with reports of 14 drones being shot down in the Rostov region and another drone being destroyed over Tula Oblast. The attacks on Engels and other locations deep inside Russia demonstrate Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets far beyond the front lines.
• Nighttime "Geranium" Drones over Kharkiv Region: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel shows nighttime "Geranium" drones operating over the Kharkiv region. The footage, likely captured using night vision or surveillance equipment, highlights the continued use of drones for reconnaissance and potentially targeting purposes. The presence of a monitor overlay with the number "1654" suggests that the video is part of an ongoing surveillance operation.

Summary of Strategic Implications

• Urgent Reinforcement Needed: The significant advances by Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk and in Toretsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The capture of Kalinovo further emphasizes the pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Kharkiv region. The potential for a major development near Velyka Novoselka highlights the need for immediate action to prevent further Ukrainian losses in this area.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities, including the deployment of advanced systems and the development of new tactics to neutralize drone threats. The massive drone attack on Tula Oblast highlights the increasing threat posed by Ukrainian drones to targets deep inside Russian territory. The continued drone activity and the use of FPV drones by Russian forces, as shown in the "Colonelcassad" videos, further emphasize the importance of counter-drone measures. Iran's enhanced drone capabilities also pose a significant threat, both regionally and potentially to the conflict in Ukraine.
• Infrastructure Protection: The targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the oil depot in Engels and the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, highlights the need for enhanced protection measures to prevent catastrophic incidents.
• International Support: The situation underscores the importance of continued military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain Ukraine's war effort, particularly in providing advanced weaponry and air defense systems. The new EU sanctions against Russia demonstrate ongoing support for Ukraine.
• Information Operations: Both sides are actively engaged in information operations to shape public perception and maintain morale. Countering disinformation and propaganda is crucial for Ukraine to sustain domestic and international support. The "Colonelcassad" videos are a clear example of Russian information operations aimed at showcasing their military successes.
• Desertion Crisis: The reported surge in desertion cases within the Ukrainian military indicates a serious morale problem that needs to be addressed urgently. This could significantly impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts.
• Potential Issues within the Ukrainian Military: The capture of the Ukrainian soldier and his statements about poor communication, training, and morale, combined with the reports of a surge in desertion cases, suggest deeper problems within the Ukrainian armed forces. These issues could impact their ability to sustain the war effort and maintain effective defenses.
• Regional Tensions: North Korea's missile test and Iran's enhanced drone capabilities add to the already tense regional situation. These developments could have indirect impacts on the conflict in Ukraine, particularly regarding the supply of weapons and the potential for a wider conflict.
• US Political Landscape: The proposed bill to "buy Greenland" indicates a potential shift in US foreign policy under the incoming Trump administration. This could have implications for the Arctic region and US-Russia relations, potentially affecting the conflict in Ukraine.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats. Given the massive drone attack on Tula Oblast and the continued drone activity across Ukraine, enhance Ukraine's ability to conduct similar attacks deep inside Russian territory and to defend against incoming drones. Develop strategies to counter Iran's enhanced drone capabilities, including potential diplomatic efforts to prevent their transfer to Russia.
3. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks.
4. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
5. Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Analyze and counter the propaganda messages conveyed in the "Colonelcassad" videos.
6. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
7. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, as well as the reported issues with Russian logistics and vehicle maintenance.
8. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the increased drone activity reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy Oblast to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
9. Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
10. Stabilize the Front: Address the issues highlighted in the "Butusov Plus" video regarding the difficulties in stabilizing the front. Improve coordination between units, particularly the newly formed brigades, and ensure that defensive positions are strategically advantageous.
11. Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of civilian infrastructure, enhance measures to protect these areas. Deploy additional air defense systems around major cities and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks.
12. Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Continue engaging with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Highlight the need for advanced weaponry, particularly air defense systems, to counter Russian air superiority and protect civilian populations.
13. Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions. Utilize drones and other surveillance technologies to monitor enemy positions and movements, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
14. Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies. The reported issues with vehicle maintenance and repair highlight the need for robust logistical support.
15. Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate the reasons behind the high desertion rates and take immediate steps to address the underlying issues. This may involve improving conditions for soldiers, addressing morale problems, and ensuring effective leadership.
16. Improve Communication and Training: Address the captured soldier's concerns about poor communication and training within the Ukrainian military. Implement measures to improve communication channels and provide better training to soldiers, particularly new recruits.
17. Counter the Drone Threat to Tula Oblast: Given the successful drone attack on Tula Oblast, develop strategies to counter similar attacks on Russian territory. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
18. Exploit the Destruction of the Ukrainian BMP CV-90: Utilize the reported destruction of the Ukrainian BMP CV-90 for propaganda purposes to highlight Russian military successes and undermine Ukrainian morale.
19. Prepare for Further Drone Attacks: Given the continued drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine, maintain a high level of readiness and ensure that air defense systems are operational and prepared to engage incoming drones.
20. Monitor the Situation in Tula Oblast: Continue to monitor the situation in Tula Oblast and gather intelligence on the effectiveness of the Ukrainian drone attack. Assess any potential damage to military or industrial targets and adjust strategies accordingly.
21. Enhance Cooperation with International Partners: Share information about the drone attack on Tula Oblast with international partners and seek their assistance in developing counter-drone technologies and strategies.
22. Diplomatic Pressure: Given the UK's invitation to a former member of the Azov Battalion to a UN meeting, increase diplomatic efforts to highlight the complexities of the conflict and the need for a balanced approach.
23. Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain vigilance and continue to monitor drone activity across all regions. Ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and prepared to engage incoming drones.
24. Investigate Crimean Legal Action: Monitor the developments in the legal case against Taras Tsely and its potential implications for the energy sector in Crimea.
25. Analyze and Counter Russian Night Operations: Given the Russian use of night operations, as highlighted in the "Colonelcassad" videos, develop strategies to counter these tactics. This may involve enhancing night vision capabilities, deploying additional surveillance assets, and training troops in night combat.
26. Address the Drone Threat in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk: Given the new reports of drone activity in these regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond.
27. Exploit Russian Propaganda: Analyze the "Colonelcassad" videos for intelligence on Russian tactics, equipment, and operational methods. Use this information to develop countermeasures and to counter Russian propaganda efforts.
28. Monitor North Korean Missile Tests: Pay close attention to North Korea's missile tests and assess their potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine. Coordinate with South Korea and other allies to monitor the situation and develop appropriate responses.
29. Assess US Political Developments: Analyze the potential implications of the proposed bill to "buy Greenland" and its impact on US foreign policy and strategic interests. Consider how this move might affect US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
30. Develop a Strategy to Counter Iran's Drone Capabilities: Given the reported advancements in Iran's drone technology, develop a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat. This could involve diplomatic efforts to prevent the transfer of these drones to Russia, as well as enhancing Ukraine's own drone and counter-drone capabilities.
31. Prepare for Potential Escalation near Velyka Novoselka: Given the warning of a potential major development near Velyka Novoselka, reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and prepare for a possible Russian offensive. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and artillery to the region and develop contingency plans for responding to a Russian breakthrough.
32. Exploit the Confirmation of Russian Airstrikes in Kursk: Use the confirmation of Russian airstrikes in the Kursk region to highlight Russia's continued aggression and to garner further international support for Ukraine. Share the information with allies and partners to maintain pressure on Russia and secure additional military aid.
33. Analyze Russian Operations in Krasnolimansk Direction: Utilize the information from the "Colonelcassad" video to assess Russian tactics and capabilities in the Krasnolimansk direction. Develop countermeasures to address the threat posed by Russian drones and precision strikes.
34. Counter the Computerized Fire Control System: Investigate the capabilities of the new