Updated Situation Analysis: January 13, 2025, 22:50 UTC
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Peschanoye, Shevchenko, Ivanivka, and Yantarne Captured: Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, Shevchenko, Ivanivka, and Yantarne. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko.
Toretsk Critical: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are confined to less than 15%, with the defense almost entirely collapsed. They are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle is approaching its culmination. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. Ukrainian sources report that the operational situation is deteriorating, with Russian forces gradually taking control. Fighting continues in the central part, characterized by high-rise buildings, all reportedly under Russian control. Russian forces are also reportedly located between spoil tips in the northern part and the western outskirts of the settlement. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using FPV and Mavic drones. The 12th Special Forces Brigade "Azov" is reportedly involved. Russian forces are also attempting to advance towards Shcherbynivka and Leonidivka. In Toretsk, Russian forces are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians. Russian media claims the army is close to completing the defeat of Ukrainian forces there. Russian forces report they have taken the refractory plant and several neighborhoods. The Ukrainian defense in Chasov Yar is collapsing. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian sources claim that almost the entire city is under their control.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have taken the refractory plant, as well as the "Northern," "October," and "New" districts. Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold the western outskirts of the city. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near the plant. Ukrainian forces repelled a drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. According to information from @rusich_army, the situation remains difficult but under control. Despite Ukrainian attempts at active defense and counterattacks, Russian forces, including units from the 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, are pushing Ukrainian forces westward. The northern district of the city is partially liberated, with the 4th workshop of the refractory plant captured. The main territory of the plant is under the control of the 331st regiment, with only the western part, comprising warehouses and a boiler room, remaining to be cleared. In the area of Dneprovskaya and Manzhinsky streets, Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to regain a crucial road junction. In the Stupki-Golubovskie forest area, the 299th Guards Airborne Regiment and the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing, with the enemy's presence being sporadic. The capture of a pioneer camp in the south and Artem Street in the southwest confirms progress. Ukrainian forces are reportedly experiencing low morale and a shortage of personnel, leading to the deployment of soldiers from rear units. The liberation of Chasiv Yar is anticipated by the end of January or, at the latest, mid-February. The situation, coupled with advances near Toretsk, suggests potential for further action towards Konstantinovka and Aleksandrovka-Druzhkovka. Video evidence shows that Ivanovo and Kostroma paratroopers captured a Ukrainian stronghold near Chasov Yar. Russian forces have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine in Chasiv Yar and have claimed new positions in the northern part.
Pokrovsk Under Intense Attack: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages. They are attempting to encircle the city and cut off Ukrainian supply lines. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. Ukrainian forces have reportedly stopped the production of coal in the mines of Pokrovsk. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. The loss of Pokrovsk and Udachne would reportedly deal a catastrophic blow to the entire metallurgical industry of what remains of Ukraine. Video evidence shows the destruction of enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade near Pokrovsk. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
Kurakhove Largely Lost: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is considered "factually lost" by Ukrainian sources. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove. Russian forces have captured a Ukrainian stronghold in Kurakhove.
Other Advances: Further gains near several other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka. Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
Airstrikes: Russian aviation has conducted airstrikes at multiple locations, including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Novopil, Maliyivka, Oleksiyivka, Kostyantynopil, Komar, and Velyka Novosilka. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region.
Clashes: Clashes have been reported along several axes, including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have eliminated 1,510 Russian soldiers, bringing the total estimated Russian personnel losses since February 24, 2022, to approximately 809,760. Additionally, Ukrainian forces destroyed 8 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 37 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 183 UAVs, and 110 vehicles and fuel tanks. Video evidence shows the K-2 unit repelling a massive Russian winter assault using drones and infantry.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. An attack by Russian forces near Novyi Komar resulted in an advance of up to 1.5 km on the northern flank of Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Video evidence shows that Russian forces are using thermobaric weapons in the area. Explosions were reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have liberated Neskuchne and entered the southern outskirts of Vremivka. They have also taken control of territory south of Velyka Novosilka. The advance along the front is approximately 2 km.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones. Over 2000 people have reportedly been injured in Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Soldiers of the 108th Air Assault Brigade shared footage of their work in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. They have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have reportedly occupied the Long Forest on the heights on the western bank of the Zherebets River. Russian forces, attempting to eliminate the "Ukrainian bridgehead" in the Kursk region, recently crossed into the northern part of the Sumy Oblast, advancing west of the village of Zhuravka.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa. Video evidence shows a Russian assault in Pogrebki by the 34th Brigade, targeting and destroying multiple US-supplied M113 armored personnel carriers and inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces. Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Alleged North Korean Involvement: Ukrainian sources report the presence of North Korean troops in the region, with video evidence showing the bodies of approximately 20 soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured and taken to Kyiv. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Alleged Use of Kinzhal Missile from Su-34: Russian sources claim the first successful launch of a Kinzhal hypersonic missile from a Su-34 aircraft, although this has been previously disputed by experts due to the Su-34's limitations.
Clashes: In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled 17 Russian army assaults. Commissions are starting to work on assessing the degree of destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At least 16 of them (in 4 districts) have houses destroyed or damaged as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Casualties: Russian MoD claims Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction exceeded 230 troops, 3 tanks, 1 IFV, and 6 armored fighting vehicles in the past 24 hours. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Drone Attack: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Artillery and Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction. Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold: Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. A Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber has struck a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area using guided bombs, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. The video provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows the Su-34 in operation, highlighting its ground attack capabilities in winter conditions.
Other: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces. The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka. A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa. "Два майора" reports that in the Kursk region, the enemy launched 11 unsuccessful counterattacks on different sectors of the front in the Sudzhansky border area. Our troops have completed the clearing of enemy strongholds between Guyevo and Kurilovka, advancing with stubborn fighting in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district. Analysis of an image showing a map overlay of the Kursk region, with red areas indicating Russian-controlled territory. Thermal drone footage on the right side of the image shows potential troop or vehicle presence. The image suggests an offensive movement from Kositsa towards Russkoye Porechnoye. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the situation on all fronts remains unchanged, with Russian forces consolidating their positions. Fighting continues in Pogrebki and on the western outskirts of Russkoye Porechnoye. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself. "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have captured Ivanivka near Terny and are making further progress southward along the Zherebets River. On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses. Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources. Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.
Kharkiv Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
Clashes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis. On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry. The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area of the Kharkiv region, but the Russian Armed Forces prevented a breakthrough of the defense line. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity reported across multiple regions. Both sides are using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. New groups of drones are reported in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Three drones are approaching Voznesensk. Reports indicate a potential Ukrainian drone attack on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline. Ukrainian air defense is reportedly working on the left bank of Kyiv. One drone is reported to be circling near Voznesensk, while two drones have crossed from the Mykolaiv region into the Kirovohrad region. One drone is reported to be in the Pervomaisk region, heading towards the Vinnytsia region. Another drone reportedly flew past Ochakiv in a northwesterly direction, while another passed through Daryevka towards Oleksandrivka in the former Snigurivka district. One drone is approaching Dolynska, and three drones are heading towards or passing through Zaporizhzhia. Another drone is heading towards or passing through Dnipro city, while three drones have crossed from the Kharkiv region into the Poltava region. One drone is reported to have crossed from the Dnipropetrovsk region into the Poltava region, and another is circling above Hostomel, with anti-drone operations ongoing. One drone is reported to be east of Zhytomyr with a southern course, and two drones are in the Korosten area. Two drones are reported to be north of Cherkasy, and three new drones are east of Chernihiv with a southwesterly course. Several groups of attack drones are reported to be moving from the Kyiv region towards the Zhytomyr region, while new groups of attack drones are reported to be in the Kharkiv region with a westward course.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. A mobile group shot down a Shahed drone. Ukrainian forces from the Sky Guards 93rd Mechanized Brigade reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone. The new Russian "Pirahna-13" FPV drone, designed for remote mining and capable of carrying up to 15 kg of explosives, has been introduced.
Ukrainian Counter-Drone Efforts: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of successful interceptions. Ukrainian forces are also using drones to target and destroy Russian equipment. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone attempting to hit a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter. The helicopter evaded the attack. The incident took place in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian FPV drone to hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter. Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region and launches of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk and Sumy regions. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air weapons. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. New groups of drones have entered Mykolaiv region from Kherson region. Air raid alerts have been lifted for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. An air raid alert has been issued for Belgorod Oblast. An air raid alert has been issued for Tula Oblast. Air defense systems are operating in the Tula region, with reports of downed enemy drones. Explosions are heard again in Kyiv. Air defense forces are operating in Obolon, according to Mayor Klitschko. Air defense is operating in the capital, according to the Kyiv City Military Administration.
Drone Attack on Engels: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
Drone Attack on Russian Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that on January 11, nine Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. Hungarian Foreign Minister stated that an attack on the "Turkish Stream" is equivalent to an encroachment on the sovereignty of the countries using it. Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary for the Russian President, called the attack an act of energy terrorism.
Ukrainian Drone Attack in Kursk: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
Drone Attack on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea were reported, with explosions occurring in these areas. Air defense operations are also reported in the Voronezh and Tambov regions.
Drone Attacks on Bryansk: Russian sources report a series of powerful explosions in Bryansk. Sirens were also heard in Orlov, Kursk, and Kaluga regions. Ukrainian sources claim that these attacks are being carried out with ATACMS missiles. The Bryansk chemical plant, which produces explosives, was reportedly targeted. According to local residents and Ukrainian sources, the strikes hit the area of the Bryansk Chemical Plant named after the 50th Anniversary of the USSR. The plant is located about 120 km from the Ukrainian border. Open sources indicate that the plant's main activity is the production of weapons and ammunition.
New Drone Activity: Several new groups of drones from the south are reported to be moving through the Kherson region towards the Mykolaiv region. At least one drone is approaching Brovary. One drone is approaching Kyiv from the direction of Vyshgorod. A new report indicates a Russian drone is operating in the north of Mykolaivska Oblast, moving west. Video evidence of a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot using an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable. Reports of a fire near Lake Bam, on the outskirts of Novorossiysk. Reports of an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea. Reports of drone attacks on Novorossiysk, with Russian air defenses attempting to intercept them. Russian Telegram channels report air defense activity and the interception of drones and missiles over Sevastopol, Kerch, Taman, and the "Kavkaz" port. Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts. Local authorities in Anapa report air defense activity. A community is requesting information about sightings in local chats in Anapa. A video from the Telegram channel "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of an aerial repeater based on the Matrice 30t UAV in Pokrovsk. Video evidence shows Russian drone operators destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region. City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast. Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest; Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west; Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west; Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west; Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west. Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest. Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts. Reports of Ukrainian air defense systems operating in the Kyiv region due to enemy drones. Multiple drones reported in various regions, including Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast, Kamensky (near Kryvyi Rih), east of Cherkasy, west of Poltava, near Vasylkiv, approaching Brovary from Nizhyn, and east of Konotop. One drone is reported to be north of Kyiv and another south of Kyiv, flying towards the capital from Obukhiv. Another drone is reported to be flying from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards the west and in Kirovohrad Oblast towards the east. They urge people to take shelter.
Tula Oblast Under Drone Attack: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. Videos of the engagement have been shared.
Sumy Airstrike: On the evening of January 13, Russian forces carried out an airstrike on the city of Sumy, damaging city infrastructure. There are no preliminary reports of casualties.
Drone Activity: 2 drones are reported at the intersection of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, heading north. 2 drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast to Cherkasy Oblast. 1 drone is flying past Smila towards Kyiv Oblast. 2 drones are at the intersection of Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad Oblasts. 5 drones from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast are heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast. 4 drones from Zaporizhzhia Oblast are moving into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 4 drones are in the Poltava area. 1 drone flew past Sumy towards Okhtyrka. 2 drones are in the west of Kyiv Oblast. 1 drone is approaching Chernihiv. 1 drone from Chernihiv Oblast is flying north of Kyiv Oblast.
Drone Attack Continues: The drone attack continues, with drones reported in the southern part of Sumy Oblast (heading south), the western and northern parts of Chernihiv Oblast (heading southwest), the northern part of Kyiv Oblast (heading west), and the east of Poltava Oblast (heading northwest). From the south, drones are reported on the border of Odesa and Mykolaiv Oblasts, moving through Mykolaiv Oblast (northwest), from Kirovohrad Oblast into Cherkasy Oblast, from Zaporizhzhia into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (northwest).
Drone Activity Near Kyiv: 2 drones are reported to be flying towards Kyiv from the direction of Irpin.
Voronezh and Tambov: Air defense operations are reported in Voronezh and Tambov Oblasts.
Geopolitical Developments
Potential Meetings: Reports suggest a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin before February 23, and preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have reportedly begun. Slovak Prime Minister Fico has invited Zelensky to a meeting on the border between Ukraine and Slovakia, likely to discuss the transit of Russian gas. Zelensky declined Fico's proposal to meet and invited him to Kyiv instead. Switzerland may guarantee the Kremlin that it will not arrest Putin under an ICC warrant if he comes to the country for a meeting with Trump.
International Support: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia. The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela and is preparing new sanctions against Russia. Six EU countries are calling for the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil. The EU has allocated an additional €148 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees in Moldova. India will reportedly stop accepting Russian oil tankers. Five European countries (Poland, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK) have formed a new alliance to provide military assistance to Ukraine, focusing on armored vehicles, air defense, drones, and maritime security. Ten EU countries have called for sanctions against all Russian gas, not just pipeline gas but also liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Trump's Statements: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option. Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues. Denmark has confirmed its readiness for dialogue with Trump on Arctic territories. Trump reportedly acknowledged that the Biden administration made many mistakes in negotiations regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Trump reportedly intends to seize strategic straits from neighboring countries, including renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, regaining control of the Panama Canal, and taking Greenland from Denmark. Republicans in the US Congress have reportedly prepared a bill that would allow Trump to begin negotiations on the purchase of Greenland immediately after taking office.
Serbia: Serbian President Vučić has proposed hosting a meeting between Putin and Trump in Serbia to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Serbia has until February 25 to withdraw Russian capital from the NIS company due to the inclusion of Gazprom Neft and Gazprom assets in the US sanctions list.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. The exercises will test the rapid deployment capabilities of NATO's Response Force (ARF) and enhance interoperability between participating nations. The exercises will simulate a conflict with a near-peer adversary. Germany is creating a territorial defense division, with six regiments of 1,000 troops each, to protect critical infrastructure and transport in case of war. The division will be based in Bavaria, Berlin, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and North Rhine-Westphalia.
Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian Ministry of Finance is assessing the risks of Armenia leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
Russia-Iran Relations: Reports indicate that Russia and Iran are strengthening military ties, particularly in the nuclear domain. Putin will meet with the Iranian President on January 17.
Venezuela: The President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, threatened to invade Puerto Rico with the help of Brazilian troops. Ukraine has aligned with the EU's position and does not recognize Maduro as the President of Venezuela.
Netherlands: Mark Rutte stated that Europeans will have to learn Russian or move to New Zealand if the EU does not allocate more money for defense.
Vietnam: Russian Prime Minister Mishustin has arrived in Vietnam for a visit to discuss economic, technological, and humanitarian cooperation between Moscow and Hanoi.
Denmark-US Relations: Denmark has privately sent proposals to Trump's team regarding Greenland. According to Axios sources, Denmark wants to convince Trump that his security concerns can be addressed without claiming US rights to Greenland. The Danish government made it clear that Greenland is not for sale but expressed readiness to discuss any other US requests regarding the island. All five parties of the Greenland Parliament opposed Trump's idea of annexing the island to the US.
Switzerland-Russia Relations: Switzerland may not arrest Putin in case of negotiations with Trump, according to The Times. The publication writes that the country may grant immunity if Putin and Trump agree to meet on its territory. Legally, the country is obliged to detain Putin according to the International Criminal Court warrant. However, the government has the authority to make an exception for peace negotiations.
Disinformation: The US FEMA agency denies the message of the head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations about the alleged poor preparation of Los Angeles for fires.
Russia-Africa Relations: Representatives of the West and Kyiv are resorting to open blackmail in their attempts to counter Russia's influence in African countries, according to the director of the Africa Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
