Updated Situation Analysis: January 13, 2025, 20:12 UTC

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Peschanoye Captured: Russian forces have captured Peschanoye, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The 74th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and 55th Guards Motorized Rifle (Mountain) Brigade participated in the operation.
• Toretsk Critical: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are confined to less than 15%, with the defense almost entirely collapsed. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle is approaching its culmination. A military hospital in Toretsk is reportedly on fire. Ukrainian sources report that the operational situation in Toretsk is deteriorating, with Russian forces gradually taking control of the city. Fighting continues in the central part of the city, characterized by high-rise buildings, all of which are reportedly under Russian control. Russian forces are also reportedly located between spoil tips in the northern part of Toretsk and the western outskirts of the settlement. Ukrainian forces are reportedly using FPV drones and Mavic drones to engage Russian troops. The 12th Special Forces Brigade "Azov" is reportedly involved in the fighting. Russian forces are also attempting to advance towards Shcherbynivka and Leonidivka. In Toretsk, Russian forces are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians.
• Pokrovsk Under Intense Attack: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages. They are attempting to encircle the city and cut off Ukrainian supply lines. Russian forces have advanced to within 6.5 km of the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. Fighting is ongoing near Kotlyne, and Russian forces are advancing toward Novoserhiivka. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk along the T 0406 road and are less than 10 kilometers from the city. Ukrainian forces have reportedly stopped the production of coal in the mines of Pokrovsk. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. The loss of Pokrovsk and Udachne would reportedly deal a catastrophic blow to the entire metallurgical industry of what remains of Ukraine. Video evidence shows the destruction of enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade near Pokrovsk. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
• Kurakhove Largely Lost: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is considered "factually lost" by Ukrainian sources. 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered to Russian forces near Kurakhovo. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhove.
• Other Advances: Russian forces have made further gains near several other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka. Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection. An attack by Russian forces near Malinivka resulted in an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near the plant. Ukrainian forces repelled a drone attack, suppressing four Baba Yaga drones with small arms fire. According to information from @rusich_army, the situation in Chasiv Yar remains difficult but under control. Despite Ukrainian attempts at active defense and counterattacks, Russian forces, including units from the 200th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, are pushing Ukrainian forces westward. The northern district of the city is partially liberated, with the 4th workshop of the refractory plant captured. The main territory of the plant is under the control of the 331st regiment, with only the western part, comprising warehouses and a boiler room, remaining to be cleared. In the area of Dneprovskaya and Manzhinsky streets, Ukrainian forces are counterattacking to regain a crucial road junction. In the Stupki-Golubovskie forest area, the 299th Guards Airborne Regiment and the 4th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade are advancing, with the enemy's presence being sporadic. The capture of a pioneer camp in the south and Artem Street in the southwest confirms progress. Ukrainian forces are reportedly experiencing low morale and a shortage of personnel, leading to the deployment of soldiers from rear units. The liberation of Chasiv Yar is anticipated by the end of January or, at the latest, mid-February. The situation, coupled with advances near Toretsk, suggests potential for further action towards Konstantinovka and Aleksandrovka-Druzhkovka.
• Airstrikes: Russian aviation has conducted airstrikes at multiple locations, including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Novopil, Maliyivka, Oleksiyivka, Kostyantynopil, Komar, and Velyka Novosilka. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region.
• Clashes: Clashes have been reported along several axes, including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past day, there were 184 combat clashes, 77 of them in the Pokrovsk direction. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have eliminated 1,510 Russian soldiers, bringing the total estimated Russian personnel losses since February 24, 2022, to approximately 809,760. Additionally, Ukrainian forces destroyed 8 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 37 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 183 UAVs, and 110 vehicles and fuel tanks.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. An attack by Russian forces near Novyi Komar resulted in an advance of up to 1.5 km on the northern flank of Velyka Novosilka. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Video evidence shows that Russian forces are using thermobaric weapons in the area.
• Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces have liberated Neskuchne and entered the southern outskirts of Vremivka. They have also taken control of territory south of Velyka Novosilka. The advance along the front is approximately 2 km.
• Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two. Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones. Over 2000 people have reportedly been injured in Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Ukrainian forces reportedly attempted five counterattacks, all of which were repelled. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war. The intensity of the fighting in the Kursk region is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. They have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have reportedly occupied the Long Forest on the heights on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa. Video evidence shows a Russian assault in Pogrebki by the 34th Brigade, targeting and destroying multiple US-supplied M113 armored personnel carriers and inflicting heavy casualties on Ukrainian forces.
• Alleged North Korean Involvement: Ukrainian sources report the presence of North Korean troops in the region, with video evidence showing the bodies of approximately 20 soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured and taken to Kyiv. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
• Alleged Use of Kinzhal Missile from Su-34: Russian sources claim the first successful launch of a Kinzhal hypersonic missile from a Su-34 aircraft, although this has been previously disputed by experts due to the Su-34's limitations.
• Clashes: In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled 17 Russian army assaults. Commissions are starting to work on assessing the degree of destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. At least 16 of them (in 4 districts) have houses destroyed or damaged as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Casualties: Russian MoD claims Ukrainian losses in the Kursk direction exceeded 230 troops, 3 tanks, 1 IFV, and 6 armored fighting vehicles in the past 24 hours. Since the beginning of the assault, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost more than 50,000 soldiers.
• Drone Attack: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
• Artillery and Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction. Primorsky paratroopers destroyed a Ukrainian pickup truck with a drone.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have captured Ivanivka near Terny and are making further progress southward along the Zherebets River.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
• The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
• Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
• Clashes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity reported across multiple regions. Both sides are using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. New groups of drones are reported in Sumy Oblast, heading towards Chernihiv Oblast. Three drones are approaching Voznesensk. Reports indicate a potential Ukrainian drone attack on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• Ukrainian Counter-Drone Efforts: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of successful interceptions. Ukrainian forces are also using drones to target and destroy Russian equipment. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. A mobile group shot down a Shahed drone. Ukrainian forces from the Sky Guards 93rd Mechanized Brigade reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region and launches of guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk and Sumy regions. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air weapons. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. New groups of drones have entered Mykolaiv region from Kherson region. Air raid alerts have been lifted for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. An air raid alert has been issued for Belgorod Oblast. An air raid alert has been issued for Tula Oblast.
• Drone Attack on Engels: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• Drone Attack on Russian Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that on January 11, nine Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. Hungarian Foreign Minister stated that an attack on the "Turkish Stream" is equivalent to an encroachment on the sovereignty of the countries using it. Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary for the Russian President, called the attack an act of energy terrorism.
• Ukrainian Drone Attack in Kursk: A Ukrainian drone reportedly attacked a civilian car in the Kursk region, injuring two elderly people.
• Drone Attack on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea were reported, with explosions occurring in these areas.
• Drone Attacks on Bryansk: Russian sources report a series of powerful explosions in Bryansk. Sirens were also heard in Orlov, Kursk, and Kaluga regions. Ukrainian sources claim that these attacks are being carried out with ATACMS missiles. The Bryansk chemical plant, which produces explosives, was reportedly targeted. According to local residents and Ukrainian sources, the strikes hit the area of the Bryansk Chemical Plant named after the 50th Anniversary of the USSR. The plant is located about 120 km from the Ukrainian border. Open sources indicate that the plant's main activity is the production of weapons and ammunition.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meetings: Reports suggest a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin before February 23, and preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have reportedly begun. Slovak Prime Minister Fico has invited Zelensky to a meeting on the border between Ukraine and Slovakia, likely to discuss the transit of Russian gas. Zelensky declined Fico's proposal to meet and invited him to Kyiv instead. Switzerland may guarantee the Kremlin that it will not arrest Putin under an ICC warrant if he comes to the country for a meeting with Trump.
• International Support: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia. The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela and is preparing new sanctions against Russia. Six EU countries are calling for the G7 to lower the price cap on Russian oil. The EU has allocated an additional €148 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees in Moldova. India will reportedly stop accepting Russian oil tankers. Five European countries (Poland, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK) have formed a new alliance to provide military assistance to Ukraine, focusing on armored vehicles, air defense, drones, and maritime security. Ten EU countries have called for sanctions against all Russian gas, not just pipeline gas but also liquefied natural gas (LNG).
• Trump's Statements: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option. Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues. Denmark has confirmed its readiness for dialogue with Trump on Arctic territories. Trump reportedly acknowledged that the Biden administration made many mistakes in negotiations regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Trump reportedly intends to seize strategic straits from neighboring countries, including renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, regaining control of the Panama Canal, and taking Greenland from Denmark.
• Serbia: Serbian President Vučić has proposed hosting a meeting between Putin and Trump in Serbia to discuss the crisis in Ukraine. Serbia has until February 25 to withdraw Russian capital from the NIS company due to the inclusion of Gazprom Neft and Gazprom assets in the US sanctions list.
• NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. The exercises will test the rapid deployment capabilities of NATO's Response Force (ARF) and enhance interoperability between participating nations. The exercises will simulate a conflict with a near-peer adversary. Germany is creating a territorial defense division, with six regiments of 1,000 troops each, to protect critical infrastructure and transport in case of war. The division will be based in Bavaria, Berlin, Hesse, Lower Saxony, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and North Rhine-Westphalia.
• Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian Ministry of Finance is assessing the risks of Armenia leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).
• Russia-Iran Relations: Reports indicate that Russia and Iran are strengthening military ties, particularly in the nuclear domain. Putin will meet with the Iranian President on January 17.
• Venezuela: The President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, threatened to invade Puerto Rico with the help of Brazilian troops. Ukraine has aligned with the EU's position and does not recognize Maduro as the President of Venezuela.
• Netherlands: Mark Rutte stated that Europeans will have to learn Russian or move to New Zealand if the EU does not allocate more money for defense.
• Vietnam: Russian Prime Minister Mishustin has arrived in Vietnam for a visit to discuss economic, technological, and humanitarian cooperation between Moscow and Hanoi.

Other Key Developments

• Explosions: Explosions have been reported in multiple Ukrainian cities and regions, as well as in several Russian regions.
• New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members. The Biden administration is also proposing new restrictions on the export of AI chips. Zelensky has implemented new sanctions against the Russian financial sector, targeting 140 entities, including the operator of the Russian payment system "Mir," companies providing IT solutions for the financial sector, and several individuals.
• Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
• Russian Psychological Operations: Russian psychological operations are intensifying, using drones to drop leaflets on Ukrainian positions and spreading misinformation.
• Alleged Espionage Activity: Ukrainian authorities have reportedly arrested an individual accused of providing coordinates for a Russian drone attack on Kyiv on January 1st.
• Wagner Group Recruitment: A video promoting recruitment for the Wagner Group has been circulated, offering high salaries and benefits for service in Ukraine and Africa.
• Mobilization Issues in Ukraine: A combatant from the 30th Mechanized Brigade has reported that mobilization in Ukraine has completely failed. There are reports of forced mobilization in Vinnytsia. The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app. Zelensky announced the appointment of a new head of the National Academy of Ground Forces, to be selected via the "Army+" app.
• Medical Care for Military Personnel: The Russian government approved a program to provide free medical care for participants of the "special military operation" without waiting lists and increased access to sanatorium treatments.
• Alleged Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian "Revival" party, Kostadin Kostadinov, reportedly stated that Bulgaria should claim Southern Bessarabia, part of the Odessa region, and voiced claims on Macedonia.
• Potential Shift in US Support for Ukraine: Reports suggest the Biden administration believes there are enough Democrats and Republicans in Congress who support continued aid to Ukraine and will not agree to any attempts by Trump to stop it.
• Oil Spill in Black Sea: Efforts are underway to clean up an oil spill in the Black Sea that resulted from a damaged tanker. The spill has reached Berdyansk and is moving towards Mariupol. There are reports of new fuel spills in several areas of annexed Crimea.
• Economic Measures: The Russian government is considering fines up to 5 million rubles for disclosing commercial secrets, including information about schemes for importing goods under sanctions. Gazprom is reportedly considering cutting its central staff by about 40%. Russian oil companies have reportedly lost 361 billion rubles in two days due to sanctions.
• "Destructology": The Moscow Patriarchate has published a textbook on "destructology," a purported science aimed at countering threats to Russia's national security.
• Propaganda: A video from a pro-Russian source features a song glorifying a figure named "Gagin Yan," likely a military commander, portraying him as a hero in the conflict.
• Capture of Ukrainian Soldier: A Ukrainian soldier who mocked an abandoned "Pyaterochka" store in Sudzha was captured by Russian forces.
• Traffic Accident in Kyiv: A traffic accident in Kyiv could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region. The operation of the Kyiv metro has been restricted due to the threat of Russian missile strikes.
• Potential Blocking of Bank Deposits in Russia: The Russian government is considering blocking bank deposits to finance the war effort. Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov, amounting to nearly 24 billion rubles.
• Attempted Arson in Moscow: An attempted arson on Maidan Square in Moscow was reported.
• Cyber Attacks on Russian Infrastructure: The Roseltorg trading platform was targeted in a cyber attack.
• Potential Use of North Korean Equipment: Ukrainian sources claim that a North Korean version of the Tor air defense system was targeted by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
• Fire in Tula Military Hospital: A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated. The cause is unknown, but some sources suggest an electrical fault. The spire and part of the roof collapsed. The fire is still ongoing. The fire has been contained.

Updated Assessment

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove, and have now captured Peschanoye. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with the Ukrainian defense reportedly collapsing. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka. Russian forces have occupied the Long Forest on the heights on the western bank of the Zherebets River.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The new claim of a Ukrainian drone attack on a civilian car in the Kursk region, if true, further escalates the conflict and raises concerns about civilian casualties. The fire at the military hospital in Tula adds another layer of complexity, with the potential to impact Russian military medical capacity. The new video allegedly showing captured North Korean soldiers, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating a possible expansion of the conflict and direct involvement of North Korean forces on the Russian side. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict. The reported use of ATACMS missiles to target the Bryansk chemical plant, if confirmed, marks a significant escalation and demonstrates Ukraine's ability to strike targets deep within Russian territory. The new information about the Ukrainian attacks on the Bryansk chemical plant confirms the target and suggests the use of ATACMS missiles. This highlights the ongoing threat to Russian industrial and military facilities. The open-source information stating that the plant's primary activity is the production of weapons and ammunition makes it a legitimate military target. The distance of about 120 km from the border is within the range of ATACMS missiles.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The reported Iranian delivery of drones to its army and the alleged strengthening of military ties between Russia and Iran over nuclear technology raise concerns about further regional instability. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions. Maduro's threat to invade Puerto Rico with Brazilian troops adds another layer of complexity to the international situation. The invitation from Slovak Prime Minister Fico to Zelensky for a meeting on the border suggests potential negotiations regarding the transit of Russian gas, which could have significant economic and political implications for both countries. The formation of a new military assistance format by five European countries (Poland, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK) to support Ukraine is a significant development. This new alliance will focus on providing armored vehicles, air defense systems, drones, and maritime security, potentially bolstering Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement. The new report of over 2,000 people injured in Russian attacks on the Zaporizhzhia region since the beginning of the full-scale invasion highlights the devastating impact of the conflict on civilians. Air defense systems are actively engaging targets in the Kursk region. The reported liberation of Neskuchne by Russian forces and their advance towards Vremivka marks a significant development on the Velyka Novosilka axis.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region, especially given the proximity of the frontline to the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and the reported cessation of coal production in the Pokrovsk mine.
2. Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
3. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats. Exploit the reported vulnerability of Russian troops to Ukrainian drones on the Zaporizhzhia front.
4. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks. Target Russian energy infrastructure in response to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Develop a plan to counter and respond to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, such as the reported drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. Address the reported cessation of coal production in Pokrovsk and its potential impact on Ukraine's steel industry.
5. Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Investigate and address the reported forced mobilization in Vinnytsia and Odessa to ensure ethical and legal recruitment practices. Exploit reports of low morale and desertion among Russian troops. Investigate the claims made by the 35th Brigade regarding troop losses and the age of reinforcements. Address any issues related to troop morale and the provision of adequate support to units on the frontline.
6. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the commitment from the UK and Latvia to provide 30,000 drones and the German promise to transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems. Exploit the EU's decision to allocate an additional €148 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees in Moldova. Leverage the new military assistance format formed by Poland, Germany, France, Italy, and the UK to secure additional armored vehicles, air defense systems, drones, and maritime security capabilities. Exploit the support of 10 EU countries for sanctions against all Russian gas.
7. Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public. Counter the Russian narrative about the alleged Ukrainian attack on the "Turkish Stream" pipeline by providing evidence to the contrary or highlighting the unreliability of Russian sources.
8. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media. Exploit Russian logistical challenges and dependence on foreign fighters.
9. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
10. Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Pay close attention to the situation near the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and in the Kursk region, where Ukrainian drone attacks are reported.
11. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Prepare contingency plans for a potential escalation of the conflict, including the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure and the use of unconventional weapons.
12. Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
13. Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop morale, including desertion and forced mobilization.
14. Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
15. Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
16. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the increased drone activity reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy Oblast to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
17. Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
18. Exploit Russian Command Weaknesses: Capitalize on reports of Russian commanders being detached from battlefield realities.
19. Monitor the situation in Greenland: Keep a close eye on developments related to Greenland, particularly regarding potential US involvement and the reactions of other countries. Assess the potential strategic implications for the Arctic region and NATO's security posture.
20. Prepare for potential escalation in the Black Sea: Given the reported oil spill from sunken tankers reaching Berdyansk and the continued fighting in the region, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in the Black Sea.
21. Assess the impact of the traffic accident in Kyiv: While not directly related to military operations, the traffic accident in Kyiv could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region. Assess the extent of the damage and any potential disruptions to transportation networks.
22. Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation: Continue to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts, particularly regarding the forced mobilization of Ukrainian troops and the alleged mistreatment of prisoners of war. Provide accurate and timely information to the public and the international community to maintain support for Ukraine and counter Russian narratives.
23. Exploit Russian logistical challenges: Capitalize on reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front. Target Russian supply lines and logistics hubs to further exacerbate these shortages and limit their ability to sustain offensive operations.
24. Enhance cooperation with international partners: Continue to work closely with international partners, particularly the US, UK, Germany, and Latvia, to secure additional military aid, including drones, air defense systems, and other advanced weaponry. Leverage these partnerships to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities and counter Russian aggression.
25. Prepare for potential escalation along the border: Given the increased fighting in the Kursk region and the reported use of larger groups in assaults, prepare for the possibility of the conflict escalating along the border. Reinforce border defenses, deploy additional troops and equipment to vulnerable areas, and develop contingency plans for responding to cross-border attacks.
26. Monitor the situation in the Middle East: Keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the reported Houthi attack on a US aircraft carrier and the alleged strengthening of military ties between Russia and Iran. Assess the potential implications for regional stability and any potential spillover effects on the conflict in Ukraine.
27. Address the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia: Monitor the situation regarding the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia and assess the potential impact on the Russian economy and its ability to finance the war effort. Consider potential countermeasures and strategies to mitigate the effects of such actions on Ukraine and its allies.
28. Exploit Russian internal tensions: Capitalize on reports of internal tensions within Russia, such as the attempted arson on Maidan and the growing discontent among the population. Support efforts to amplify these tensions and undermine the Russian regime's stability.
29. Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Roseltorg trading platform, continue to invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Target Russian critical infrastructure, government networks, and propaganda outlets to disrupt their operations and sow confusion.
30. Prepare for long-term conflict: Given the protracted nature of the conflict and the unlikelihood of a quick resolution, develop a long-term strategy for sustaining Ukraine's war effort. This could involve diversifying sources of military and financial