Situation Report

Updated Situation Analysis - January 13, 2025, 10:42 UTC

Key Developments

Donetsk Region:

• Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces controlling most of the city and continuing their advance. Ukrainian forces are attempting to defend the remaining territory, but the situation is dire.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages. They are attempting to encircle the city and cut off Ukrainian supply lines. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
• Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is considered "factually lost" by Ukrainian sources.
• Other Advances: Russian forces have made further gains near several other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
• Airstrikes: Russian aviation has conducted airstrikes at multiple locations, including Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk, Novopil, Maliyivka, Oleksiyivka, Kostyantynopil, Komar, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Clashes: Clashes have been reported along several axes, including Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka. This suggests ongoing intense fighting across a broad front.

Kursk Region:

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses reported.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. They have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Alleged North Korean Involvement: Ukrainian sources report the presence of North Korean troops in the region, with video evidence showing the bodies of approximately 20 soldiers. Ukrainian forces also report repelling an attack by North Korean soldiers.
• Alleged Use of Kinzhal Missile from Su-34: Russian sources claim the first successful launch of a Kinzhal hypersonic missile from a Su-34 aircraft, although this has been previously disputed by experts due to the Su-34's limitations.
• Clashes: In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled 17 Russian army assaults.

Luhansk Region:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have captured Ivanivka near Terny and are making further progress southward along the Zherebets River.

Kharkiv Region:

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
• The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
• Airstrikes: Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Veterynarne.
• Clashes: Clashes have been reported along the Kharkiv axis.

Drone Warfare:

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity reported across multiple regions. Both sides are using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv. Ukrainian forces used drones to destroy a Russian ammunition depot near Kupyansk.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• Ukrainian Counter-Drone Efforts: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging Russian drones, with reports of successful interceptions. Ukrainian forces are also using drones to target and destroy Russian equipment, including a rare Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone. A Ukrainian drone attack targeted the village of Primorsk in the Zaporizhzhia region, resulting in civilian casualties.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in multiple regions, including Kyiv, due to the threat of Russian drones and long-range bombers. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, reportedly destroying 41 out of 64 drones overnight.
• Iranian Drone Delivery: According to Reuters, Iran has reportedly delivered 1,000 new drones with a range of over 2,000 km to its army.
• Drone Attack on Engels: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• Drone Attack on Russian Gas Pipeline: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that on January 11, nine Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies gas via the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. They claim all drones were shot down, but debris from one damaged the station. Ukrainian military has not commented.

Geopolitical Developments:

• Potential Meetings: Reports suggest a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin before February 23, and preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have reportedly begun.
• International Support: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia. The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela and is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
• Trump's Statements: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option. Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues.
• Serbia: Serbian President Vučić has proposed hosting a meeting between Putin and Trump in Serbia to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.
• NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26, involving 10,000 troops from 10 countries. These exercises will take place in Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. The goal is to test the rapid deployment capabilities of NATO's Response Force (ARF) and enhance interoperability between participating nations.
• Sanctioned Tankers Idling: Three Russian tankers carrying over 2 million barrels of oil, destined for China, have changed course and are now idling in the open sea due to new US sanctions.
• Armenia-EU Relations: The Armenian Ministry of Finance is assessing the risks of Armenia leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), although the issue is not currently on the agenda.

Other Key Developments:

• Explosions: Explosions have been reported in multiple Ukrainian cities and regions, as well as in several Russian regions.
• New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
• Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
• Russian Psychological Operations: Russian psychological operations are intensifying, using drones to drop leaflets on Ukrainian positions and spreading misinformation.
• Alleged Espionage Activity: Ukrainian authorities have reportedly arrested an individual accused of providing coordinates for a Russian drone attack on Kyiv on January 1st. The individual allegedly photographed a checkpoint near the parliament building the day before the attack. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported the arrest of an agent who was preparing a coordinated drone attack on Kyiv, targeting administrative buildings and energy-generating enterprises.
• Wagner Group Recruitment: A video promoting recruitment for the Wagner Group has been circulated, offering high salaries and benefits for service in Ukraine and Africa.
• Mobilization Issues in Ukraine: A combatant from the 30th Mechanized Brigade has reported that mobilization in Ukraine has completely failed, with citizens in the rear living their lives as normal.
• Medical Care for Military Personnel: The Russian government approved a program to provide free medical care for participants of the "special military operation" without waiting lists, and increased access to sanatorium treatments.
• Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Ukrainian drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, and Dzhankoi in occupied Crimea were reported, with explosions occurring in these areas.
• Alleged Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian "Revival" party, Kostadin Kostadinov, reportedly stated that Bulgaria should claim Southern Bessarabia, part of the Odessa region, and voiced claims on Macedonia.
• Potential Shift in US Support for Ukraine: Reports suggest the Biden administration believes there are enough Democrats and Republicans in Congress who support continued aid to Ukraine and will not agree to any attempts by Trump to stop it.
• Fundraising for Drones: Messages indicate ongoing fundraising efforts to support both Russian and Ukrainian forces with drones.

Updated Assessment:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones. The reported Ukrainian drone attack on the "Russkaya" compressor station in Russia, if true, marks a significant escalation, targeting critical infrastructure supplying gas to Europe.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions. The reported Iranian delivery of drones to its army and the alleged strengthening of military ties between Russia and Iran over nuclear technology raise concerns about further regional instability.