Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 13, 2025, 09:42 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have made significant advances. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian sources reporting that less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control, and Russian sources claiming the liberation of the city is almost complete. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhovo for Ukrainian forces. The highway between Dymytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics in the area.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian sources claim that almost the entire city is under their control, with only the outskirts remaining to be captured.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are working to destroy Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk. They have also reportedly entered the outskirts of the city.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Yantarne. The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka. Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with 192 attacks in the Donetsk direction and 107 in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing.
Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine. The threat of ballistic weaponry has been lifted across most of Ukraine, except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions.
New: Russian forces, as reported by "Военкор Котенок", are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. South of this area, from the Petropavlovka area, the 114th Brigade is breaking through the Ukrainian fortified area, trying to cut off access to Andreevka from the rear.
New: The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, particularly around Russkoye Porechnoye and towards Kositsa. Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
New: Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
New: After liberating Leonidovo, Russian paratroopers took control of Alexandria and are continuing their attacks towards Staraya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolsky.
New: The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
New: The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
New: A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
New: Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.

Kharkiv Region

New: The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
New: Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
New: Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
New: Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
New: Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 41 out of 64 drones overnight.

Geopolitical Developments

Reports indicate a potential meeting between Scholz and Putin before February 23. Preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have reportedly begun.
President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace.
Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.
New: German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service. This indicates a heightened state of alert and a recognition of the potential for a broader conflict. The EU is also preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.

Other Key Developments

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh, Kursk, Tambov, Saratov, and Lipetsk in Russia. Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated. There are reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
New: Serbian President Vučić has proposed hosting a meeting between Putin and Trump in Serbia to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.
New: Russian psychological operations are intensifying, using drones to drop leaflets on Ukrainian positions and spreading misinformation.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions.

Situation Report