Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 13, 2025, 04:42 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured Shevchenko, Kurakhove, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk, advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with only a small part of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. In Toretsk, Russian forces are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 60 out of 94 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, as well as eight additional drones over Voronezh, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts. A new Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post in Novohrodivka is reported. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia. Reports indicate that Russian forces have dropped bombs on a school-boarding facility in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in at least one death.

New Developments:

Russian psychological operations are intensifying, using drones to drop leaflets on Ukrainian positions and spreading misinformation.
The peak of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the special operation zone in 2024 was in October, with 1,128 drones shot down.
One Russian ship carrying up to four Kalibr missiles is observed in the Black Sea, while no enemy ships are present in the Azov Sea.
A telephone conversation between Trump and Putin may take place in the coming days or weeks, with preparations for a summit underway.
Russian drone attacks damaged a children's center in Sumy.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine. Russian forces are disguising themselves as civilians.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk. Ukrainian General Staff reports another successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Novohrodivka, Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region. A nationwide ballistic missile threat has been declared across Ukraine. The threat of ballistic weaponry has been lifted across most of Ukraine, except for Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv regions.
Reports indicate ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
Reports of a powerful explosion in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with a large plume of smoke visible.
Ukrainian forces have captured and are utilizing a T-80 tank in the defense of Toretsk. The tank has been equipped with additional drone protection.
The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies that Pokrovsk is under threat of encirclement.
Russian artillery successfully destroyed a US-supplied M119 howitzer near Ulakly.
One person was killed and four were wounded in a Russian attack on the Vasilyevsky district of the Zaporizhzhia region.
Russian forces are working to destroy Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. Russian forces are using drones to drop leaflets on Ukrainian positions, urging them to surrender.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed.
Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
Video from "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that the 114th brigade has liberated Shevchenko.
Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment.
Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
A Ukrainian counterattack involving about 50 units of equipment was repelled by Ukrainian forces near Viktorivka.
Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost 90 EW stations.
Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
Russian forces dropped leaflets at AFU positions in Kursk region border area before delivering artillery strikes.
Su-35S jets provided cover for aircraft and helicopters during airstrikes on enemy equipment and manpower in the Kursk region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
New: Airborne troops from Buryatia used drones to drop leaflets urging Ukrainian forces to surrender in the border areas of the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area of the Kharkiv region, but the Russian Armed Forces prevented a breakthrough of the defense line.
Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk, according to the head of the Kupyansk Regional State Administration.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The fire has reportedly been burning for five days, damaging six reservoirs, three of which were completely destroyed.
Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery Attack: Drone attacks and explosions were reported near an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. The new Russian "Pirahna-13" FPV drone, designed for remote mining and capable of carrying up to 15 kg of explosives, has been introduced.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Air raid alerts have been reported for Kyiv. Reports indicate a drone hit a multi-story building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv, damaging windows and 6 cars, but causing no casualties.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in Sumy Oblast. An enemy drone is approaching Sumy from the south.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.
- Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is reported to be flying over the region. A cruise missile was reported on Mykolaiv Oblast course towards Vinnytsia.
- Odesa Oblast: Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
- Kherson Oblast: A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the Kherson region with a course to the south.
- Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
- Air raid alerts have been called off for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
- 9 drones are now reported to be circling Zaporizhzhia.
- Reports of drones being used to attack targets in Crimea. An explosion was reported in Kerch, potentially due to air defense activity. Reports that unknown drones are attacking Voronezh and Kursk in Russia.
- Video evidence of a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot using an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable.
- Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaged a cannon using drones.
- Reports of a fire near Lake Bam, on the outskirts of Novorossiysk.
- Reports of an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea.
- Reports of drone attacks on Novorossiysk, with Russian air defenses attempting to intercept them.
- Russian Telegram channels report air defense activity and the interception of drones and missiles over Sevastopol, Kerch, Taman, and the "Kavkaz" port.
- Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
- Local authorities in Anapa report air defense activity.
- A community is requesting information about sightings in local chats in Anapa.
- A video from the Telegram channel "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of an aerial repeater based on the Matrice 30t UAV in Pokrovsk.
- Video evidence shows Russian drone operators destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region.
- City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
- Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
- Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone attempting to hit a Russian Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter. The helicopter evaded the attack. The incident took place in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
- Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones.
- Video from "Colonelcassad" shows an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian FPV drone to hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter.
- Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk.
- Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
- Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
- In the Rostov region, 16 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
- Soldiers of the 108th Air Assault Brigade shared footage of their work in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier.
- Video evidence of Russian helicopters operating in the conflict zone. The video shows at least three helicopters, including attack and transport types, flying over a rural landscape. One helicopter deploys flares, indicating a potential threat environment.
- Reports of Ukrainian air defense systems operating in the Kyiv region due to enemy drones.
- Multiple drones reported in various regions, including Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast, Kamensky (near Kryvyi Rih), east of Cherkasy, west of Poltava, near Vasylkiv, approaching Brovary from Nizhyn, and east of Konotop. One drone is reported to be north of Kyiv and another south of Kyiv, flying towards the capital from Obukhiv. Another drone is reported to be flying from Kharkiv Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
- A new video from the Telegram channel "Colonelcassad" shows a Russian "Lancet" loitering munition destroying a Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer near Vozdvyzhenka.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards the west and in Kirovohrad Oblast towards the east. They urge people to take shelter.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports that drones have been destroyed over the Mykolaiv region.
- The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv. The drone was reportedly used to guide ballistic missiles.
- An air raid alert has been announced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
- Video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 506th Regiment conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces.
- Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
- Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
- Video evidence of an aerial battle between two Ukrainian "Mavic" drones (one reconnaissance and one bomber) and a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone on the Seversk direction. The reconnaissance drone rammed the "Baba Yaga", causing it to crash. The bomber drone then targeted the crashed drone.
New: The peak of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian regions outside the special operation zone in 2024 was in October, with 1,128 drones shot down.
New: One Russian ship carrying up to four Kalibr missiles is observed in the Black Sea, while no enemy ships are present in the Azov Sea.
New: Russian drone attacks damaged a children's center in Sumy.

Additional Information

A telephone conversation between Trump and Putin may take place in the coming days or weeks, with preparations for a summit underway.
The average offered salaries for journalists in Russia in 2024 ranged from 40,000 to 80,000 rubles.
January 13th marks the anniversary of the introduction of universal military conscription in Russia in 1874.

Situation Report