Sitrep 2025-01-12 18:46:34

Key Military Situation Update: January 12th, 2025, 18:42 UTC

Donetsk Region

Toretsk Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are confined to less than 15% of the city, with the defense of Toretsk almost entirely collapsed. Ukrainian forces are reportedly trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle for Toretsk is approaching its culmination. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device. Tank crews of the 63rd Brigade reportedly attacked Russian positions in the Serebryansky forest. Artillerymen of the "Dnepr-1" fire support regiment are firing at the positions of the Russians in the city of Toretsk. Work of FPV drones on enemy manpower and equipment in the Dzerzhinsky direction was carried out by fighters of the 132nd brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces. Video evidence from the 12th "Azov" Brigade shows drones and a tank targeting Russian forces during a mechanized assault in the Toretsk direction. The video claims that the Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, destroying several armored vehicles. Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group. Video from "Сливочный каприз" details an attack by Russian motorized rifle units in the direction of Petrivka, near Horlivka. Russian forces reportedly advanced more than 500 meters along the left bank of the Kryvyi Torets River. The Russian Telegram channel "Operation Z" reports that the defense of Toretsk has almost entirely collapsed, with only small pockets remaining under Ukrainian control.
Kurakhove Mostly Captured: DeepState acknowledges the loss of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop. Video shows an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment. The video claims that the special forces destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six. Ukrainian Telegram channel "ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS" posted a video allegedly showing pro-Russian residents of Kurakhove welcoming Russian forces. The video shows civilians expressing relief and gratitude towards the Russian troops, while also criticizing Ukrainian forces.
Intense Fighting Near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances reported in multiple surrounding villages, including Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Heavy fighting is reported, with 33 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses today, 22 of which were repelled. More than 30 Russian attacks were carried out on the Pokrovsk direction. Urban fighting in Pokrovsk is not ruled out in the future. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city. Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. They are currently less than 7 km from a highway leading into the region. This suggests a strategic shift to encircle Pokrovsk and cut off supply lines, potentially forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal. Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Confirmed Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of these settlements. Russian Telegram channel "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have liberated Yantarne on the Kurakhove direction.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces report shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area. Russian forces report they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine near Chasiv Yar. Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Posts: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on command posts of the 8th and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka, respectively. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had carried out a precision strike on the command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in the occupied city of Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A nationwide ballistic missile threat was declared across Ukraine, later lifted for most regions except Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. DeepState reports that Russian forces have advanced near Andriivka, Solone, and Novosilka. Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka. Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection. "Сливочный каприз" reports an attack by Russian forces near Malinivka, with an advance of over 2.5 km towards a road junction on the Krasnoarmiisk-Konstantinovka highway.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka. "Сливочный каприз" reports an attack by Russian forces near Novyi Komar, with an advance of up to 1.5 km on the northern flank of Velyka Novosilka.
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation reported in the Donetsk region.
Video footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
Video evidence of an aerial battle between two Ukrainian "Mavic" drones and a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone on the Seversk direction. The reconnaissance drone rammed the "Baba Yaga", causing it to crash.
Video evidence shows a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian position in Novoselivske, with secondary explosions.
Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway Temporarily Closed: The Horlivka-Yasynuvata highway has been temporarily closed due to continuous Ukrainian attacks, illustrating the intensity of the conflict in this area.
Massive Drone Attack on Horlivka Reported: Ukrainian forces launched a massive drone attack targeting transport of a municipal enterprise in Horlivka, emphasizing the use of drones to disrupt Russian logistics.
The Ukrainian Telegram channel "Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration" reported that the number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
MoD Russia video shows repair units of the Dnepr Group of Forces restoring armament of a motorized infantry regiment in the Orekhov direction of the Zaporizhzhia region.
Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of up to 48,000 casualties. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. The assault was carried out in six waves. The Ukrainian forces successfully repelled the attack, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides suffering significant losses. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Prisoners Captured: Russian forces report capturing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian President Zelensky's Telegram channel reported that Ukraine is ready to exchange captured North Korean soldiers for Ukrainian soldiers held by Russia.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
Losses: Russian forces claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian MoD claims the AFU has lost over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 90 EW stations, and other equipment in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka: In the Kursk region, paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost more than 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 218 infantry fighting vehicles, 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,517 armored fighting vehicles, 1,435 vehicles, 348 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 90 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other materiel, including 15 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
Video evidence of the Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system.
A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command. The soldier claims they lost half their personnel and were eventually captured.
The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
Terrible consequences of enemy aggression in the Kursk region: commissions begin work to assess the destruction in the border area. In the Kursk region, commissions are starting to work on assessing the degree of destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This applies to those settlements that were not included in the list of non-commission issuance of certificates to residents. The Ministry of Defense provided the first list of 158 settlements where commissions can go. At least 16 of them (in 4 districts) have houses destroyed or damaged as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the governor of the Kursk region reports.
Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction.
Video evidence shows a close-quarters battle for Berdin, with a Russian FPV drone and a grenade launcher targeting a NATO armored vehicle.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Counterattack: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area but were unsuccessful.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack and destroyed a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier near Kupyansk.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Oleksandrivka, Vovchanski Khutory, Sadovod, Hryhorivka, Khatnye, Pischane, Kurylivka, Borivsk Andriyivka, Zelenyy Hay, Verkhnokamyanske, Mayske, Druzhba, Scherbynivka, Serhiyivka, Andriyivka, Toretsk, Kostyantynivka, Temyrivka, Velyka Novosilka, Kherson.
FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. Drone operators of the group of troops "Sever" destroyed an enemy pickup truck in the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka. They report advances near Makeevka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny. In the Svatove-Kupiansk direction, Russian forces have expanded their control zone near Nadiia (Nadezhda) and are pushing towards Makiivka (at the heights) and in the Zahryzove area.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare

Widespread Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with new explosions reported and a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Drone Activity in Multiple Oblasts: Drone movements are reported in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast. A drone is reported to be approaching Vosresenske. A drone is also reported to be flying over Mykolaiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a new group of attack drones in Sumy Oblast, moving south. A drone is reported on the east of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwesterly direction. Attack drones are reported in Kharkiv Oblast, moving west. A drone is reported in the north of Poltava Oblast, moving north. A drone is reported in the east of Kirovohrad Oblast, moving northwest. A drone is reported in Donetsk Oblast, moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. One drone is reported to be flying east of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, towards Pokrovsk. Two drones are reported west of Zaporizhzhia, with a northwesterly course. Two drones are reported to be flying towards/through Balakliia. One drone is reported to be circling in the Pryluky area. A drone is reported to be flying over Kremenchuk in a northwesterly direction. A drone is reported in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a northeasterly course. Six drones are reported to be flying west of Zaporizhzhia. Four drones are reported to be moving from Donetsk Oblast into the Pavlograd district. Eight drones are reported to be moving from Sumy Oblast into Poltava Oblast. Seven drones are reported to have flown from Konotop into Chernihiv Oblast.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in Anapa and Novorossiysk. Drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. Drone attacks are also reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga. The Telegram channel "ASTRA" reported a fire at the "KamAZ Center" in Stavropol, with the cause unknown.
Air Defense Activity: Russian air defenses report destroying 40 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region overnight and 16 in the Rostov region. Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, all of which were shot down. Ukrainian forces targeted a reconnaissance drone storage warehouse at the "PlasFaktor" enterprise in the Rostov region.
Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia and an attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier with an FPV drone. Ukrainian forces used a HIMARS system to successfully target a Russian "Buk" air defense system.
New Drone Activity: Six new drones are reported to be heading towards/through Zaporizhzhia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a new group of attack drones in Sumy Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Drones are reported in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwesterly direction. Attack drones are reported in Kharkiv Oblast, moving west. A drone is reported in the north of Poltava Oblast, moving north. A drone is reported in the east of Kirovohrad Oblast, moving northwest. A drone is reported in Donetsk Oblast, moving towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that between January 6 and 12, 400 enemy aerial targets were shot down, including 4 missiles, 299 "Shahed" attack drones, 67 reconnaissance drones, and 30 other types of drones.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23. It is also reported that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have begun. Telephone negotiations between Putin and Trump may occur in the near future. Serbian President Vučić proposed holding talks between Putin and Trump in Serbia.
US-Ukraine: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU-Syria: EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland-Slovakia-Russia: Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace.
Trump's Potential Greenland Annexation: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Ukraine's Manpower Issues: Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer". Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved.
UK and Latvia Drone Supply: The UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems.
US-Ukraine Discussions: US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.
US Legal Action: A US court has sentenced a Canadian citizen to 3.5 years in prison for allegedly illegally exporting electronic equipment to Russia.
Migration Crisis: Western countries are facing a significant migration crisis.
Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico has praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies as a positive outcome. He also accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
Western Support for Ukraine: A Foreign Policy op-ed by Stephen Walt suggests that supporters of Kyiv in the West may soon face a debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" after the conflict ends.
US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
BRICS Data: Data on contracts of international organizations, primarily the BRICS New Development Bank, may appear on the public procurement website.
Ukraine-Poland Relations: Ukraine has, for the first time, permitted Poland to conduct exhumations of those who died in Volyn during World War II.
Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian Revival party, Kostadin Kostadinov, has called for the annexation of Southern Bessarabia (part of the Odesa region) to Bulgaria.
Poland continues to strengthen the security of the sky in the area of the logistics hub in Rzeszów: If in December Norwegian NASAMS arrived at the airbase, now they are also waiting for Patriot air defense systems from Germany. At the end of January, Berlin will complete the transfer of two MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems and 200 Bundeswehr soldiers to Rzeszów to service them.
Advisor to former President Trump, Mike Waltz, confirmed that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin are underway.
Kellogg's Cancelled Visit: US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, reportedly canceled his visit to Kyiv due to disagreements with Zelensky's position on ending the conflict and the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region.
Trump may lift restrictions on Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American weapons, according to Mike Waltz.
There is a call from Trump's advisor to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine to 18.
Potential Agreement on Ukraine: The US believes that any agreement on Ukraine must include "security guarantees" to prevent a repetition of the conflict.
Trump's Recognition of Russian Position: Trump reportedly recognizes the unreality of the idea of "expelling" Russia from the former territories of Ukraine.
Pro-Russian Candidate's Election Annulled in Romania: The annulment of the pro-Russian candidate's victory in the first round of Romania's presidential election, due to alleged "Russian influence," indicates a strong anti-Russian sentiment within Romania and a potential escalation of tensions between Russia and NATO.
Mass Protests in Bucharest: The mass protests in Bucharest in support of the pro-Russian candidate highlight a deep political division within Romania.
Azerbaijan-Serbia Gas Supply: Azerbaijan's assurance of continued gas supply to Serbia, despite "objective problems," demonstrates the importance of energy security in the region.
Slovak Delegation's Visit to Moscow: The Slovak delegation's visit to Moscow for gas supply negotiations, despite Poland's airspace denial, underscores the complex geopolitical dynamics.
Zelensky's Response to Fico: Zelensky's criticism of Fico's reliance on Moscow highlights the ongoing tension between Ukraine and Slovakia.
Trump Advisor on Ukraine: The statement by Trump's future national security advisor, Mike Waltz, acknowledging the unlikelihood of expelling Russia from all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, suggests a potential shift in the US position under a future Trump administration.
"Дневник Десантника" reports that the Trump administration is pushing for lowering the mobilization age in Ukraine to 18.

Other Key Developments

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Collaborators: Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged. A civilian bus was attacked in the Sumy region by a Russian drone, resulting in two injuries. In 2024, over 14,000 units of additional equipment and supplies were delivered to the military in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Alleged Corruption in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian generals owning mansions in Los Angeles that burned down in wildfires have surfaced, fueling allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military.
Bus Accident in Ilovaisk: A bus accident in Ilovaisk resulted in multiple casualties. The driver has been charged with violating traffic rules. The number of victims in the bus accident in the DPR has increased to 33.
Potential for Escalation in Somalia: The report on the counter-terrorism operation in Somalia suggests a potential for further escalation in the region, with the Islamic State expanding its influence and foreign fighters involved in the conflict.
Russian Soldier's Testimony: A captured Ukrainian soldier's testimony reveals poor training, low morale, and a broken chain of command within the Ukrainian military.
Recruitment of Actor Artyom Kalaidjyan: Russian actor Artyom Kalaidjyan has joined the "Healthy Fatherland" movement in Donetsk, emphasizing the importance of patriotic education for youth.
Testimony of Soldier Who Survived Rabotino: A Ukrainian soldier who participated in the battles for Rabotino reported that out of 600 men in his battalion, only 36 survived, with most of the casualties occurring within five days.
Bot Activity: Reports of bot activity manipulating online polls related to video game content and violence.
New Fuel Spill in Crimea: Reports of new fuel spills in several areas of annexed Crimea, including Yevpatoria, Sudak, Feodosia, Yalta, Saksky, and Chernomorsky regions, as well as on Tuzla Island and Cape Takil, indicate a potential environmental disaster and a possible consequence of military activity or sabotage. The total length of the spill is reported to be 12.6 km.
Lavrov-Fidan Phone Call: The phone call between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, discussing the importance of preventing actions that could threaten energy security and the need for an inclusive national dialogue in Syria, highlights the ongoing diplomatic efforts related to the conflict and the broader regional dynamics.
The Telegram channel "ASTRA" reported that a Russian drone attacked a bus in the Sumy region, resulting in injuries to two women.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that Sweden will purchase 44 new Leopard 2A8 tanks and modernize 66 old Leopard 2 tanks from the German concern KNDS. Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicles will also be modernized.
"Рыбарь" reports on an interview with the Chief of the General Staff of Serbia, General Mojsilović, who stated that military-technical cooperation between Russia and Serbia is in a difficult situation due to logistical challenges and sanctions.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly controlling most of the city and infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones. A new video shows a Russian drone flying at a very low altitude in the Kyiv region, in an attempt to avoid Ukrainian air defenses. Reports of Ukrainian drones flying over multiple regions of Russia could indicate preparations for a major offensive or continued testing of Russian air defenses.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and growing tensions between Russia and the West. The involvement of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

Changes brought by the new messages:

Advertisements: The message from "Alex Parker Returns" is a commercial advertisement and does not provide any information relevant to the military situation.
Kryvyi Rih: Oleksandr Vilkul, the head of the Kryvyi Rih defense council, provided an update on the situation in the city. He reported that the situation is under control, with all services, hospitals, and social institutions operating. He also highlighted the ongoing efforts to support the military, including the provision of equipment and supplies. Vilkul emphasized the importance of supporting children, especially those affected by the war. He also mentioned the development of a rehabilitation center for veterans and the modernization of municipal electric transport.
Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reported a new group of attack drones in Sumy Oblast, moving towards Poltava Oblast. Drones are also reported in the east of Chernihiv Oblast and in Kharkiv Oblast.
Alleged Abusive Behavior: The Telegram channel "Два майора" shared a video allegedly showing a deputy minister of education, science, and youth policy of Krasnodar Krai, Sergey Uraykin, verbally abusing volunteers who were rescuing birds in Anapa.
Tank Destruction: The Russian Ministry of Defense released a video showing a Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank near

Situation Report