Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 12, 2025, 11:42 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, where they have captured Shevchenko, Kurakhove, Yantarne, and a significant portion of Toretsk, advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with Ukrainian sources reporting that only a small part of the city remains under Ukrainian control and Russian sources claiming the liberation of the city is almost complete. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, including a significant breakthrough near Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 60 out of 94 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. DeepState has officially acknowledged the loss of Kurakhovo for Ukrainian forces.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction towards Udachne, Kotlyno, Novosergievka, Zverevo, Lysovka, and Yelizavetovka. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne. Russian forces are advancing in the direction of Udachne and in the northern part of the Kryvulya gully towards Kotlyno. They are also breaking through defenses near Zverevo and to the west. Further north, Russian forces have advanced towards Chunyshino and Novopavlivka from Zelene and Dacne. Intense fighting continues for Lysivka and Sukhyi Yar, with Russian forces attempting to cut off access to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
• Shevchenko and Yantarne Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko and Yantarne.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
• Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Urban warfare is ongoing, with the enemy attempting to advance on the industrial complex.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed a Russian BTR-82A, two infantry fighting vehicles, and a T-72 tank using FPV drones.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
• Airspace Closure Near Horlivka-Yasynuvata Highway: Due to continuous attacks by Ukrainian forces, the highway between Horlivka and Yasynuvata has been temporarily closed to traffic.
• Ballistic Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a ballistic missile threat in the direction of Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region.
• New: Reports indicate ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka. Russian forces have successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian M113 armored personnel carrier using FPV drones.
• New: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine and capture more territory.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
• Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye.
• Russian forces have advanced on the western and northern flanks in the Kursk region, penetrating up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• The pro-Ukrainian analytical resource Deep State has acknowledged the liberation of Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Novoivanovka by Russian forces.
• The cleanup of Pogrebki continues on the southern flank, while paratroopers continue their assault on Makhnovka.
• Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area, with reports of an infantry unit attacking Russkoye Porechnoye and reaching advanced positions near Kositsa.
• The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
• The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
• The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
• Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
• Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
• Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
• Ukrainian sources report that two North Korean soldiers have been captured in the Kursk region.
• Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death. This incident has been confirmed by a Ukrainian military spokesperson.
• Casualties: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
• New: Fighting has commenced in the Lyman direction, according to pro-Russian sources.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. The oil depot in Engels has been burning for 5 days.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys.
• New: The 11th Brigade of the National Guard, specifically the "Samosud" crew, reportedly shot down a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over Mykolaiv.
• New: An air raid alert has been announced in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove, Yantarne, and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Russian forces have made a significant breakthrough near Sudzha, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries.

New Developments from Recent Messages:

1. Capture of Kalinovo: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces have captured Kalinovo near Kupyansk.
2. EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia.
3. Casualties in Kursk: Over 350 Ukrainian military personnel were reportedly lost in the Kursk direction during the day, with five Ukrainian counterattacks repulsed.
4. Update on Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is increasingly critical. Russian forces are pushing from multiple directions, and urban warfare is ongoing. The reported difficulties faced by Ukrainian forces in stabilizing the front, as discussed in the "Butusov Plus" video, are particularly evident in Toretsk. The deployment of new brigades has not yet yielded the desired results, and the continuous fighting is further straining Ukrainian defenses.
5. New: Reports of positional fighting near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km.
6. New: Reports of a significant increase in criminal cases for desertion from the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with 89,449 cases, 3.5 times more than in 2023. The reports highlight issues with the investigation and prosecution of desertion cases, suggesting a potential crisis within the Ukrainian military.
7. New: Capture of a Ukrainian soldier from the 54th brigade. The soldier expresses discontent with the high command and describes poor communication and training within the Ukrainian forces.
8. New: The Ukrainian military is reporting that Russian forces are attempting to reinforce their defenses of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
9. New: Russian forces claim to have cleared the village of Berdin, and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
10. New: Confirmed use of North Korean soldiers by the Russian forces.
11. New: The Russian army struck a boarding school in Sudzha with an aerial bomb, resulting in casualties.
12. New: The Russian army is expanding its control zone along the Kupyansk-Orlyanskoye highway.
13. New: Confirmed use of HIMARS by the Ukrainian forces against a Russian BUK.
14. New: Ukrainian air raid alerts in the Zaporizhzhia oblast.
15. New: The Hungarian Foreign Minister has stated that the latest US sanctions against Russia are creating serious problems for Central Europe, particularly in energy, and may lead to a rise in fuel prices. He also mentioned that Hungary is planning consultations with regional partners to minimize the impact of these sanctions.

Summary of Strategic Implications

• Urgent Reinforcement Needed: The significant advances by Russian forces in the Donetsk region, particularly towards Pokrovsk and in Toretsk, necessitate urgent reinforcement and strategic reevaluation by Ukrainian forces. The capture of Kalinovo further emphasizes the pressure on Ukrainian defenses in the Kharkiv region.
• Counter-Drone Capabilities: The extensive use of drones by both sides underscores the need for enhanced counter-drone capabilities, including the deployment of advanced systems and the development of new tactics to neutralize drone threats.
• Infrastructure Protection: The targeting of critical infrastructure, such as the oil depot in Engels and the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, highlights the need for enhanced protection measures to prevent catastrophic incidents.
• International Support: The situation underscores the importance of continued military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain Ukraine's war effort, particularly in providing advanced weaponry and air defense systems. The new EU sanctions against Russia demonstrate ongoing support for Ukraine.
• Information Operations: Both sides are actively engaged in information operations to shape public perception and maintain morale. Countering disinformation and propaganda is crucial for Ukraine to sustain domestic and international support.
• Desertion Crisis: The reported surge in desertion cases within the Ukrainian military indicates a serious morale problem that needs to be addressed urgently. This could significantly impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts.
• Potential Issues within the Ukrainian Military: The capture of the Ukrainian soldier and his statements about poor communication, training, and morale, combined with the reports of a surge in desertion cases, suggest deeper problems within the Ukrainian armed forces. These issues could impact their ability to sustain the war effort and maintain effective defenses.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats.
3. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks.
4. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
5. Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
6. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
7. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, as well as the reported issues with Russian logistics and vehicle maintenance.
8. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the increased drone activity reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy Oblast to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
9. Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
10. Stabilize the Front: Address the issues highlighted in the "Butusov Plus" video regarding the difficulties in stabilizing the front. Improve coordination between units, particularly the newly formed brigades, and ensure that defensive positions are strategically advantageous.
11. Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of civilian infrastructure, enhance measures to protect these areas. Deploy additional air defense systems around major cities and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks.
12. Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Continue engaging with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Highlight the need for advanced weaponry, particularly air defense systems, to counter Russian air superiority and protect civilian populations.
13. Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions. Utilize drones and other surveillance technologies to monitor enemy positions and movements, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
14. Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies. The reported issues with vehicle maintenance and repair highlight the need for robust logistical support.
15. Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate the reasons behind the high desertion rates and take immediate steps to address the underlying issues. This may involve improving conditions for soldiers, addressing morale problems, and ensuring effective leadership.
16. Improve Communication and Training: Address the captured soldier's concerns about poor communication and training within the Ukrainian military. Implement measures to improve communication channels and provide better training to soldiers, particularly new recruits.
17. Respond to Hungarian Concerns: Engage with Hungary to address their concerns regarding the new US sanctions and potential impacts on energy prices. Seek diplomatic solutions to ensure continued support from Hungary and maintain unity within the EU.

These recommendations are aimed at strengthening Ukraine's defensive capabilities, addressing critical vulnerabilities, and ensuring the continued support of international partners in the face of the ongoing Russian offensive. The situation remains highly dynamic, and continuous monitoring and adaptation will be crucial for success.