Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025, 20:12 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city and capturing the northern outskirts. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported, although they have had success in shooting down drones. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, such as using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones, and FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries, as well as military training camps.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with growing tensions between Russia and the West and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister's continued criticism of Zelensky highlights these divisions. Leaders of Greenland have expressed their willingness to discuss with Trump the possibility of Greenland becoming part of the US. The capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the ongoing fighting in various regions underscore the intensity of the conflict.

Key Updates

Donetsk Region

Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 157 combat clashes, 11 aviation and 1 missile strike, 20 attacks with guided aerial bombs, 751 drone strikes, and 4000 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements. 63 attacks were carried out on the Pokrovsk direction, with 11 ongoing. Russian forces are supported by bombers.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages, including Udachne, which is only 2300 meters away. Video evidence shows a quad bike driving through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces are expanding their control south of the city, approaching Kotlyne and Udachne, with heavy fighting ongoing.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device. Russian forces are consolidating positions, capturing the northern outskirts, and controlling most of the city. The removal of Ukrainian flags and the installation of Russian flags by the 109th Separate Rifle Regiment signify significant gains. Russian forces are attacking Toretsk from multiple directions, with advances reported near Druzhba and Severnoye.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are also making progress in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, with advances near Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. Ukrainian FPV drones are being used extensively, with reports of successful strikes on Russian armor and personnel.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 123, with 32 people injured and 13 killed. 2 people were killed and 2 injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk. Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
Kurakhiv direction: Russian forces control the majority of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and are advancing near Slavyanka and Petropavlivka. Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six. Video evidence details the operation to liberate Shevchenko. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing, with fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). Zelensky acknowledged that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year but throughout the war.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces report repelling 16 enemy attacks, with six combat clashes still ongoing.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing.
North Korean Involvement: Reports of two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces, one of whom had a Russian military ID issued to another person. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
Ukrainian Advances: Video evidence emerges of Ukrainian forces conducting assaults with up to 80 personnel in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces also report using HIMARS in the area, and claim that Russian tactics have shifted to larger-scale attacks. The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" targeted and shot down 4 enemy drones in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces continue to expand their bridgehead beyond the river, controlling part of the settlement. The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. In the Svatove-Kupiansk direction, Russian forces have expanded their control zone near Nadiia (Nadezhda) and are pushing towards Makiivka (at the heights) and in the Zahryzove area. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in several regions in Russia. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast.
Engels Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
New Drones: Reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. They also report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
FPV Drone Use: Both sides are extensively using FPV drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs. Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting and destroying a Russian logistics convoy in the Luhansk region. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions due to drone movements and the threat of missile strikes.
New Drone Groups: New groups of enemy drones are reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, indicating continued and potentially intensified drone activity in the region.

Geopolitical Landscape

EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved.
Greenland: A future advisor to Trump, Congressman Mike Waltz, has stated that Greenland is of significant importance to US national security due to its critical minerals and natural resources. He also mentioned that China is attempting to gain influence in the region as the polar ice caps recede. According to Axios, Denmark has sent a confidential proposal to Trump's entourage regarding strengthening security in Greenland. The proposal includes the possible expansion of the US contingent on the island. The elected US President has stated that he does not rule out taking control of Greenland by force, which Copenhagen considers an actual threat of invasion.
Trump's Stance on Ukraine: The team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump has reportedly stopped pushing for a truce between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's interest in this issue has cooled, and his negotiators are telling their Russian counterparts that the elected president intends to wait until Ukraine uses most of the allocated aid before returning to negotiations. The Russian leadership has reportedly accepted this proposal but considers further consultations pointless due to the activation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region. Contacts will continue, but the focus will shift towards finding a format for a lasting ceasefire and the possibility of further peaceful coexistence between Ukraine and Russia.
UK and Latvia Drone Supply: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius. Pistorius reported that these missiles were originally intended for the Bundeswehr but are now being redirected directly from production to Ukraine. According to local media, 48 missiles are involved.
US-Ukraine Discussions: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine. The main topics of our conversation were the situation on the battlefield, the role of drones at this stage of the war, and Ukraine's defense needs for various types of UAVs. They also discussed strengthening Ukrainian air defense and the prospects for providing additional air defense systems, particularly in cooperation with other countries.
Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.

Other Developments

Air Traffic Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on flights were introduced in Ufa and Kirov airports. Update: Restrictions have been lifted in the airports of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Samara, suggesting a return to normalcy after a potential threat, possibly related to drone activity.
Oil Spill: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea reached Berdyansk.
Drone Attack Aftermath: Reports of the consequences of a drone attack in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia region, where a 47-year-old woman died.
Slovak PM's Further Criticism of Zelensky: The new messages reinforce the Slovak Prime Minister's critical stance towards Zelensky, further highlighting the potential for growing divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. His statements about Ukraine begging and blackmailing for money, coupled with Slovakia's substantial military aid to Ukraine, suggest a complex and potentially contradictory position.
Drone Attack on "Turkish Stream" Infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones. Explosions were reported near Utrish and Varvarovka, where the pipeline enters, and a raid was carried out on Novorossiysk. This development highlights the ongoing threat to critical energy infrastructure and the potential for further escalation of the conflict.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city and capturing the northern outskirts. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries, as well as military training camps. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, such as using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones, and FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with growing tensions between Russia and the West and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister's continued criticism of Zelensky highlights these divisions. The capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the ongoing fighting in various regions underscore the intensity of the conflict.

The new messages highlight the continued importance of drone warfare, the ongoing information war, and the potential for further escalation. The situation is further complicated by internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine, including corruption, incompetence, desertion, and declining morale. The environmental damage caused by the conflict, such as the oil spill reaching Berdyansk, is also a growing concern. The potential for a wider conflict, as suggested by reports of military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region and potential US involvement in Greenland, remains a significant risk. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict and demonstrate Ukraine's willingness to target critical Russian infrastructure. The maps provided by Butusov Plus offer valuable insights into the current military situation in various regions, highlighting the ongoing fighting and the fluid nature of the front lines. The new reports of Ukrainian forces using large groups of up to 80 personnel in assaults in the Kursk region, along with claims of using HIMARS, indicate a potential shift in tactics and an escalation of fighting in that area. The reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for attacks further suggests an intensification of the conflict.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks. Target Russian energy infrastructure in response to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Investigate and address the reported forced mobilization in Lviv to ensure ethical and legal recruitment practices.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the commitment from the UK and Latvia to provide 30,000 drones and the German promise to transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Prepare contingency plans for a potential escalation of the conflict, including the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop morale, including desertion and forced mobilization.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the increased drone activity reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy Oblast to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
Exploit Russian Command Weaknesses: Capitalize on reports of Russian commanders being detached from battlefield realities.
Address the attacks on energy infrastructure: Develop a plan to counter and respond to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, such as the reported drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. This could involve enhancing air defenses around critical infrastructure, deploying electronic warfare systems to counter drone threats, and developing rapid repair capabilities to minimize disruptions to energy supplies.
Monitor the situation in Greenland: Keep a close eye on developments related to Greenland, particularly regarding potential US involvement and the reactions of other countries. Assess the potential strategic implications for the Arctic region and NATO's security posture.
Prepare for potential escalation in the Black Sea: Given the reported oil spill from sunken tankers reaching Berdyansk and the continued fighting in the region, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in the Black Sea. This could involve deploying additional naval assets, enhancing maritime surveillance capabilities, and developing contingency plans for responding to attacks on shipping or coastal infrastructure.
Assess the impact of the traffic accident in Kyiv: While not directly related to military operations, the traffic accident in Kyiv could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region. Assess the extent of the damage and any potential disruptions to transportation networks.
Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation: Continue to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts, particularly regarding the forced mobilization of Ukrainian troops and the alleged mistreatment of prisoners of war. Provide accurate and timely information to the public and the international community to maintain support for Ukraine and counter Russian narratives.
Exploit Russian logistical challenges: Capitalize on reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front. Target Russian supply lines and logistics hubs to further exacerbate these shortages and limit their ability to sustain offensive operations.
Enhance cooperation with international partners: Continue to work closely with international partners, particularly the US, UK, Germany, and Latvia, to secure additional military aid, including drones, air defense systems, and other advanced weaponry. Leverage these partnerships to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities and counter Russian aggression.
Prepare for potential escalation along the border: Given the increased fighting in the Kursk region and the reported use of larger groups in assaults, prepare for the possibility of the conflict escalating along the border. Reinforce border defenses, deploy additional troops and equipment to vulnerable areas, and develop contingency plans for responding to cross-border attacks.
Monitor the situation in the Middle East: Keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the reported Houthi attack on a US aircraft carrier. Assess the potential implications for regional stability and any potential spillover effects on the conflict in Ukraine.
Address the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia: Monitor the situation regarding the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia and assess the potential impact on the Russian economy and its ability to finance the war effort. Consider potential countermeasures and strategies to mitigate the effects of such actions on Ukraine and its allies.
Exploit Russian internal tensions: Capitalize on reports of internal tensions within Russia, such as the attempted arson on Maidan and the growing discontent among the population. Support efforts to amplify these tensions and undermine the Russian regime's stability.
Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Roseltorg trading platform, continue to invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Target Russian critical infrastructure, government networks, and propaganda outlets to disrupt their operations and sow confusion.
Prepare for long-term conflict: Given the protracted nature of the conflict and the unlikelihood of a quick resolution, develop a long-term strategy for sustaining Ukraine's war effort. This could involve diversifying sources of military and financial aid, building up domestic defense industries, and strengthening Ukraine's resilience to economic and social pressures.
Engage in diplomatic efforts: Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to garner international support for Ukraine and isolate Russia. Push for stronger sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting its energy sector and financial institutions. Seek to build a broader coalition of countries committed to supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Exploit Russian military weaknesses: Capitalize on reports of Russian military weaknesses, such as poor training, low morale, and inadequate equipment. Target these vulnerabilities through precision strikes, psychological operations, and information warfare to further degrade Russian combat effectiveness.
Enhance intelligence gathering: Invest in and improve intelligence gathering capabilities to better understand Russian troop movements, deployments, and intentions. Utilize human intelligence, signals intelligence, and aerial reconnaissance to gain a comprehensive picture of the battlefield and anticipate Russian actions.
Prepare for potential escalation in the information war: Given the ongoing information war between Russia and Ukraine, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in this domain. Develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda, disinformation, and cyber attacks, while also promoting Ukraine's narrative and maintaining public support both domestically and internationally.
Address the environmental impact of the conflict: Take steps to mitigate the environmental damage caused by the conflict, such as the oil spill reaching Berdyansk. Develop plans for cleaning up and restoring affected areas, and seek international assistance in these efforts.
Monitor the situation in Transnistria: Keep a close eye on developments in Transnistria, given its proximity to Ukraine and the potential for destabilization in the region. Assess any potential threats to Ukraine's security emanating from Transnistria and develop contingency plans accordingly.
Enhance border security: Strengthen border security measures to prevent infiltration by Russian forces and sabotage groups. Deploy additional border guards, improve surveillance capabilities, and construct fortifications along vulnerable stretches of the border.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of chemical weapons: Given reports of Russian forces using chemical weapons in the past, prepare for the possibility of further use of such weapons. Equip troops with protective gear, train them in decontamination procedures, and develop contingency plans for responding to chemical attacks.
Address the humanitarian crisis: Continue to address the humanitarian crisis caused by the conflict, particularly the displacement of civilians and the destruction of infrastructure. Provide assistance to those affected by the fighting, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
Enhance civil defense capabilities: Improve civil defense capabilities to protect the civilian population from the effects of the conflict. This could involve strengthening air raid warning systems, constructing bomb shelters, and training civilians in emergency response procedures.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of nuclear weapons: Given the heightened tensions between Russia and the West, prepare for the possibility, however remote, of the use of nuclear weapons. Develop contingency plans for responding to a nuclear attack, including evacuation procedures, medical treatment protocols, and measures to mitigate the long-term effects of radiation exposure.
Exploit Russian military casualties: Continue to publicize and highlight Russian military casualties to undermine morale among Russian troops and the public. Utilize captured Russian soldiers for propaganda purposes, showcasing their mistreatment by their own commanders and the futility of the war.
Enhance counter-artillery capabilities: Given the reported intensity of Russian artillery fire, invest in and improve counter-artillery capabilities. Deploy additional counter-battery radars, acquire longer-range artillery systems, and train troops in counter-artillery tactics to neutralize Russian artillery positions and reduce their effectiveness.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of ballistic missiles: Given the reported use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces, enhance air defense capabilities to counter this threat. Deploy additional anti-ballistic missile systems, such as Patriot or THAAD, and integrate them into a comprehensive air defense network.
Address the threat of infiltration by Russian special forces: Given the reported activities of Russian special forces, such as the "Grachi" detachment, enhance counter-infiltration measures. Deploy specialized units to hunt down and neutralize these groups, and improve intelligence gathering to identify their presence and movements.
Exploit Russian dependence on foreign fighters: Capitalize on reports of foreign fighters, such as North Koreans, being captured in the Kursk region. Utilize this information for propaganda purposes, highlighting the international condemnation of Russia's actions and the involvement of foreign mercenaries in the conflict.
Enhance cooperation with international intelligence agencies: Strengthen cooperation with international intelligence agencies, particularly those of NATO member states, to share information and coordinate efforts to counter Russian aggression. This could involve joint training exercises, the exchange of intelligence personnel, and the establishment of secure communication channels.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of electronic warfare: Given the reported use of electronic warfare by both sides, enhance Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities. Invest in advanced jamming systems, electronic countermeasures, and cyber warfare tools to disrupt Russian communications, disable their drones, and protect Ukrainian networks from attack.
Address the threat of sabotage and terrorism: Given the reported increase in sabotage and terrorist activities, enhance security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government buildings, and public spaces. Deploy additional security personnel, improve surveillance capabilities, and conduct regular security drills to prepare for potential attacks.
Enhance strategic communication: Develop a comprehensive strategic communication plan to effectively convey Ukraine's narrative to domestic and international audiences. Utilize various channels, including social media, traditional media outlets, and diplomatic engagements, to counter Russian propaganda, maintain public support, and garner international assistance.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of drones: Given the increasing use of drones by both sides, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in this domain. Develop counter-drone tactics, deploy anti-drone systems, and invest in research and development of new drone technologies to maintain a competitive edge.
Exploit Russian economic vulnerabilities: Capitalize on reports of economic difficulties within Russia, such as the potential blocking of bank deposits. Target Russian financial institutions, energy companies, and other key sectors of the economy to exacerbate these vulnerabilities and undermine their ability to finance the war effort.
Enhance cooperation with international financial institutions: Work closely with international financial institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, to secure additional financial assistance for Ukraine. Utilize these funds to support the war effort, stabilize the economy, and rebuild damaged infrastructure.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of disinformation: Given the ongoing information war, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in the use of disinformation by Russia. Develop strategies to counter Russian disinformation campaigns, promote media literacy among the population, and work with international partners to expose and debunk false narratives.
Address the threat of internal destabilization: Given reports of internal tensions within both Russia and Ukraine, take steps to address potential sources of destabilization. Promote national unity, address social and economic grievances, and counter efforts by Russia to exploit internal divisions.
Enhance cooperation with international human rights organizations: Work closely with international human rights organizations to document and expose human rights abuses committed during the conflict. Utilize this information to hold Russia accountable for its actions and to garner international support for Ukraine.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of unconventional weapons: Given the unpredictable nature of the conflict, prepare for the possibility of Russia resorting to the use of unconventional weapons, such as biological or radiological weapons. Develop contingency plans for responding to such attacks, including medical treatment protocols, decontamination procedures, and public safety measures.
Exploit Russian military desertion: Capitalize on reports of Russian military desertion and low morale. Offer amnesty and safe passage to Russian soldiers who choose to defect, and utilize their testimonies for propaganda purposes to further undermine the Russian war effort.
Enhance cooperation with international cybersecurity experts: Work closely with international cybersecurity experts to protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure and government networks from cyber attacks. Share information on cyber threats and vulnerabilities, and collaborate on the development of defensive measures.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of proxy forces: Given the reported involvement of foreign fighters and mercenary groups, prepare for the possibility of Russia increasing its use of proxy forces. Develop strategies to counter these groups, including targeted strikes, intelligence gathering, and cooperation with international partners to track and disrupt their activities.
Address the threat of nuclear blackmail: Given Russia's nuclear arsenal and the potential for nuclear blackmail, develop a strategy for deterring and responding to such threats. This could involve strengthening Ukraine's conventional military capabilities, seeking security guarantees from nuclear-armed allies, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Enhance cooperation with international arms control organizations: Work closely with international arms control organizations to monitor and verify compliance with existing arms control agreements. Push for stronger measures to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and to hold violators accountable.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of long-range missiles: Given the reported use of long-range missiles by both sides, enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities to counter this threat. Deploy additional anti-missile systems, such as the S-300 and S-400, and integrate them into a comprehensive air defense network.
Address the threat of espionage: Given the ongoing intelligence war between Russia and Ukraine, enhance counterintelligence capabilities to detect and neutralize Russian spies and collaborators. Conduct thorough background checks on individuals in sensitive positions, monitor communications for signs of espionage, and work with international partners to share information on potential threats.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of naval forces: Given the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in naval operations. Deploy additional naval assets, enhance coastal defenses, and develop contingency plans for responding to attacks on shipping or ports.
Enhance cooperation with international maritime organizations: Work closely with international maritime organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to ensure the safety and security of shipping in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Push for stronger measures to deter and punish violations of international maritime law.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of air power: Given the reported use of air strikes by both sides, enhance Ukraine's air force capabilities. Acquire additional fighter jets, bombers, and attack helicopters, and train

Situation Report