Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025, 19:12 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and fluid. Russian forces maintain the initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk is critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, resulting in heavy losses. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones extensively for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots, refineries, and military training camps. Innovative tactics, such as using drones equipped with shotguns, are being employed by Ukrainian forces. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with growing tensions between Russia and the West, and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine, highlighted by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico's recent critical statements.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control the majority of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and are advancing near Slavyanka and Petropavlivka. Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop. A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense details the operation to liberate Shevchenko.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device. Russian forces are consolidating positions and advancing along major streets, with reports of them capturing the northern outskirts and establishing control over most of the city. The removal of Ukrainian flags and the installation of Russian flags by the 109th Separate Rifle Regiment signify significant gains. The 109th regiment reportedly removed Ukrainian flags and installed their own on a spoil tip of mine #10 in the northern outskirts of the city.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages, including Udachne, which is only 2300 meters away. Video evidence shows a quad bike driving through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction. Russian forces are methodically expanding their control south of the city, approaching Kotlyne and Udachne, with heavy fighting ongoing but failing to stop the Russian advance.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces are also making progress in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, with advances near Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" reports repelling a massive Russian assault, involving about 50 units of equipment. The attacks were carried out in 6 waves. Ukrainian forces, along with adjacent units, reportedly destroyed a significant amount of enemy equipment and inflicted heavy casualties.
• Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
• Toretsk Direction: Three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing. Russian forces are attacking Toretsk from multiple directions, with advances reported near Druzhba and Severnoye. The situation in Toretsk remains critical.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. Ukrainian FPV drones are being used extensively, with reports of successful strikes on Russian armor and personnel.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
• Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 123, with 32 people injured and 13 killed. 2 people were killed and 2 injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk. Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). Zelensky acknowledged that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. The Ukrainian Armed Forces report repelling 16 enemy attacks, with six combat clashes still ongoing. A German Leopard 2A6 tank was reportedly destroyed in the region.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing and fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces.
• Russian Breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports of two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces, one of whom had a Russian military ID issued to another person. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
• Prisoner Exchange: Video evidence suggests 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade were captured by Russian forces in the region.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. Russian forces continue to expand their bridgehead beyond the river, controlling part of the settlement, creating favorable conditions for further advancement in the north-eastern part of the Kharkiv region. The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
• Drone Warfare: FPV drone teams are actively targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in the region.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. In the Svatove-Kupiansk direction, Russian forces have expanded their control zone near Nadiia (Nadezhda) and are pushing towards Makiivka (at the heights) and in the Zahryzove area. Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in several regions in Russia. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast.
• Engels Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery Evacuation: Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area.
• New Drones: Reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
• Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. They also report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year. Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with videos showing the fire at the oil depot in Engels from various perspectives. The videos confirm that the fire is still burning and that new explosions are occurring.
• Drone Strikes in Russia: Drone attacks reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga, where Iranian-Russian drones are assembled.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast overnight. Multiple drones were shot down over various regions of Russia, including Saratov, Kursk, Rostov, Belgorod, Bryansk, Krasnodar, Volgograd, and the Azov Sea.
• FPV Drone Use: Both sides are extensively using FPV drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier. Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs. Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting and destroying a Russian logistics convoy in the Luhansk region, consisting of 5 KAMAZ trucks and 2 URAL trucks. The attack was carried out by the Signum unit of the 53rd Mechanized Brigade. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been declared in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and other regions due to drone movements and the threat of missile strikes.
• New Drone Groups: New groups of enemy drones are reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk, indicating continued and potentially intensified drone activity in the region.

Geopolitical Landscape

• EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.
• German Preparations: German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service.
• US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
• Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved, including potentially stopping humanitarian aid.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
• US Sanctions on Hungary: The US has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogán, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office.
• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has expressed a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end.
• Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
• Western countries' plan for Ukraine's military needs: Western countries are reportedly planning to divide Ukraine's military needs into categories and assign NATO member states responsibility for supplying each, according to a Pentagon representative.
• Greenland: A future advisor to Trump, Congressman Mike Waltz, has stated that Greenland is of significant importance to US national security due to its critical minerals and natural resources. He also mentioned that China is attempting to gain influence in the region as the polar ice caps recede. According to Axios, Denmark has sent a confidential proposal to Trump's entourage regarding strengthening security in Greenland. The proposal includes the possible expansion of the US contingent on the island. The elected US President has stated that he does not rule out taking control of Greenland by force, which Copenhagen considers an actual threat of invasion.
• Finland-Russia border: The Finnish-Russian border will remain closed for the foreseeable future due to perceived threats from the Finnish government.
• Armenia-Russia Relations: Russia is reportedly blackmailing Armenia with increased energy and food prices, as well as a 70-80% reduction in exports, if Armenia withdraws from the CSTO. A bill on joining the European Union puts Yerevan before a choice, as the CSTO and the EU are deemed incompatible.
• Poland's Position: A Polish presidential candidate, supported by the "PiS" party, stated that he does not see Ukraine in the EU and NATO until "civilizational issues" important to Poles are resolved, referring to the Volhyn tragedy.
• Trump's Stance on Ukraine: The team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump has reportedly stopped pushing for a truce between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's interest in this issue has cooled, and his negotiators are telling their Russian counterparts that the elected president intends to wait until Ukraine uses most of the allocated aid before returning to negotiations. The Russian leadership has reportedly accepted this proposal, but considers further consultations pointless due to the activation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' offensive in the Kursk region. Contacts will continue, but the focus will shift towards finding a format for a lasting ceasefire and the possibility of further peaceful coexistence between Ukraine and Russia.
• UK and Latvia Drone Supply: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
• Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius. Pistorius reported that these missiles were originally intended for the Bundeswehr but are now being redirected directly from production to Ukraine. According to local media, 48 missiles are involved.
• US-Ukraine Discussions: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine. The main topics of our conversation were the situation on the battlefield, the role of drones at this stage of the war, and Ukraine's defense needs for various types of UAVs. They also discussed strengthening Ukrainian air defense and the prospects for providing additional air defense systems, particularly in cooperation with other countries.
• Azerbaijan-Serbia Gas Supply: Azerbaijan has stopped supplying gas to Serbia due to force majeure, potentially impacting European energy markets.
• Slovak President's Response: Slovak President Peter Pellegrini has stated that he will not visit Ukraine in response to the gas transit halt, further highlighting the tensions between Slovakia and Ukraine.
• Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.

Other Developments

• Bryansk Region Attack: Three civilians were injured in a Ukrainian attack using multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the village of Novye Yurkovichi, Klimovsky district, Bryansk region.
• HIMARS Strike: Images were shared of the aftermath of a building destruction in Novye Yurkovichi, with a caption claiming it was the result of a HIMARS attack.
• Explosions: Reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Air Raids: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
• Forced Retreats: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Alleged War Crimes: Two Crimean marine brigades, the Ukrainian 36th and the Russian 810th from Sevastopol, reportedly clashed in the Kursk region.
• LNR Captures: Reports that in the Luhansk People's Republic, a man was detained for transferring data to Ukraine on the deployment of Russian military personnel.
• Air Traffic Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on flights were introduced in Ufa and Kirov airports. Update: Restrictions have been lifted in the airports of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Samara, suggesting a return to normalcy after a potential threat, possibly related to drone activity.
• Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga, where Iranian-Russian drones are assembled.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively, with reports of drones equipped with shotguns targeting Russian soldiers and drones. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
• Russian Military Operations: Russian forces continue their operations, with reports of the 57th Brigade targeting Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka.
• POW Surrender: 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
• Zelensky's Falsehoods: Reports that Zelensky lied about the decrease in desertion rates, with data showing a significant increase in desertion cases in 2024.
• Far-Right Leader in Germany: In Germany, the leader of the far-right promised to restart "Nord Stream" and dismantle wind turbines.
• Terrorist List: The name of Karelia in the Karelian language was included in the list of "terrorist" organizations by the FSB.
• Oil Spill: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea reached Berdyansk.
• Natural Resources in Kazakhstan: Reports suggest Kazakhstan may only have about 20 years of natural resource trade left, with foreign companies controlling major oil fields.
• Drone Attack Aftermath: Reports of the consequences of a drone attack in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia region, where a 47-year-old woman died.
• Artillery Shelling: Reports of Russian forces using artillery and drones to attack Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a 105-mm howitzer "M119" near Ulakly.
• Psychiatric Hospital Fire: A fire in a psychiatric hospital in the Moscow region was localized to 1,000 square meters.
• Military Equipment Shortages: Reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front.
• Award Ceremony: The Tsentr Group of Forces' servicemen of a tank regiment were awarded for personal courage, bravery, and heroism.
• Propaganda Video: A video was released showing a Russian soldier complaining about exploding trench candles allegedly made by volunteers.
• Search for Missing Soldiers: Ukraine and Poland have identified locations to search for the remains of soldiers for exhumation.
• China-Taiwan Tensions: Reports of China building new amphibious assault ships and the US preparing Taiwan for defense, including plans to deploy NASAMS air defense systems.
• Desertion in Ukrainian Armed Forces: Reports of a significant increase in desertion cases within the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with data from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.
• Slovak PM's Further Criticism of Zelensky: The new messages reinforce the Slovak Prime Minister's critical stance towards Zelensky, further highlighting the potential for growing divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. His statements about Ukraine begging and blackmailing for money, coupled with Slovakia's substantial military aid to Ukraine, suggest a complex and potentially contradictory position.
• Capture of Ukrainian Soldiers: The report of 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendering on the Kurakhiv direction, if confirmed, could indicate a shift in morale or a successful Russian operation in that area. The video of the captured soldiers, released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, serves as a propaganda tool for Russia.
• Russian Military Operations in Shevchenko: The video and report from the Russian Ministry of Defense detailing the operation to liberate Shevchenko provide insights into Russian tactics and the intensity of the fighting in the Donetsk region.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations near Kupyansk: The video from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade showcasing the destruction of Russian MT-LBs near Kupyansk demonstrates the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and their ability to target Russian armor.
• Air Traffic Restrictions Lifted: The lifting of restrictions in the airports of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Samara suggests a return to normalcy after a potential threat, possibly related to drone activity.
• New Drone Groups in Sumy Oblast: The Ukrainian Air Force reports new groups of enemy drones entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast, indicating continued and potentially intensified drone activity in the region. This development could signal a new wave of attacks or an attempt to probe Ukrainian air defenses.
• Intercepted Conversation: The GUR intercepted a conversation of a Russian soldier's sister, confirming the successful strike on a military training camp in the Belgorod region. The conversation reveals that some soldiers managed to take cover in trenches, but six conscripts were killed. This information provides further evidence of the effectiveness of Ukrainian strikes and their impact on Russian forces.
• Visit of Semyon Pegov to Yekaterinburg: The famous war correspondent Semyon Pegov visited Yekaterinburg to support his friend Artyom Zhoga, now a plenipotentiary in the Ural Federal District. Pegov recorded a large interview with Zhoga as part of the "Sporty Suit" project, which features conversations with officials who have gone through the SVO. The formal occasion for the visit is the 10th anniversary of the capture of Donetsk airport, in which the Sparta battalion, commanded by the legendary Motorola and later by Vladimir Zhoga and Artyom Zhoga, participated. Pegov also engaged in cultural activities in Yekaterinburg, including a city tour, skiing at Mount Yezhovaya, and meetings with friends. This visit highlights Pegov's extensive experience in Donbas and his continued involvement in covering the conflict.
• Train Collision in Strasbourg: Two trams collided in a tunnel in Strasbourg, France, injuring at least 20 people. The accident is believed to have been caused by a switching error, with one tram being directed onto an already occupied track. This incident, while not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine, highlights the potential for infrastructure failures and their consequences.
• Attempted Arson on Maidan: A 23-year-old man from Pavlograd, Dnipropetrovsk region, attempted to set fire to flags dedicated to those killed on Maidan Nezalezhnosti in Kyiv. He filmed the attempt and stated that "it is better for the flag to burn than the whole country." After being detained by the SBU and the National Police, he repented and apologized. This incident highlights the ongoing internal tensions within Ukraine and the potential for acts of vandalism or sabotage.
• Denmark's Proposal to Trump: According to Axios, Denmark has sent a confidential proposal to Trump's entourage regarding strengthening security in Greenland. The proposal includes the possible expansion of the US contingent on the island. The elected US President has stated that he does not rule out taking control of Greenland by force, which Copenhagen considers an actual threat of invasion. This development highlights the growing strategic importance of Greenland and the potential for increased US military presence in the region. It also raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest between the US, Denmark, and other countries with interests in the Arctic.
• Russian Advances Near Vremivka, Neskuchne, Novyi Komar, and Velyka Novosilka: The Z-committee reports that Russian forces have advanced in these areas, indicating continued offensive operations in the southern Donetsk region. The map provided by the Z-committee shows the current situation on the front lines.
• 34th Brigade's Operations in the Kursk Border Region: The "Operation Z: War Correspondents of the Russian Spring" Telegram channel reports that the 34th Brigade is conducting operations in the Kursk border region, clearing the village of Pogrebki from Ukrainian forces. The video and accompanying text detail the destruction of a Ukrainian group.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations in the Kharkiv Region: The "Older than Edda" Telegram channel reports on the destruction of a camouflaged 120-mm mortar position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by Russian FPV drones in the Kharkiv region. The video shows the successful targeting of the mortar position and Ukrainian infantry.
• Russian Strikes on Ukrainian Positions near Krasnoarmeysk: The "Creamy Caprice" Telegram channel reports on Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions in the southern part of Lysovka, near Krasnoarmeysk. The accompanying video and images provide visual evidence of the strikes and the subsequent retreat of Ukrainian forces.
• Drone Attack on "Turkish Stream" Infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones. Explosions were reported near Utrish and Varvarovka, where the pipeline enters, and a raid was carried out on Novorossiysk. This development highlights the ongoing threat to critical energy infrastructure and the potential for further escalation of the conflict.
• Traffic Accident in Kyiv: A traffic accident involving a minibus and a bus occurred on Stolichnoe Shosse in Kyiv, resulting in casualties. The accident is not directly related to military operations but could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region.
• Propaganda and Disinformation: The messages from Skabeeva and Shef Hayabusa demonstrate the ongoing information war, with both sides using propaganda and disinformation to shape public perception and justify their actions.
• Oil Spill Reaching Berdyansk: The report of an oil spill from sunken tankers reaching the coast of occupied Berdyansk highlights the environmental consequences of the conflict.
• Maps of Military Situation: The maps provided by Butusov Plus offer detailed insights into the current military situation in various regions, including the Kursk, Pischan-Lyman, Siversk, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Vremivka directions.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city and capturing the northern outskirts. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries, as well as military training camps. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, such as using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones, and FPV drones are being used extensively by both sides.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with growing tensions between Russia and the West and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister's continued criticism of Zelensky highlights these divisions. The capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the ongoing fighting in various regions underscore the intensity of the conflict.

The new messages highlight the continued importance of drone warfare, the ongoing information war, and the potential for further escalation. The situation is further complicated by internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine, including corruption, incompetence, desertion, and declining morale. The environmental damage caused by the conflict, such as the oil spill reaching Berdyansk, is also a growing concern. The potential for a wider conflict, as suggested by reports of military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region and potential US involvement in Greenland, remains a significant risk. The new reports of Ukrainian drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure further escalate the conflict and demonstrate Ukraine's willingness to target critical Russian infrastructure. The traffic accident in Kyiv, while not directly related to military operations, could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region. The maps provided by Butusov Plus offer valuable insights into the current military situation in various regions, highlighting the ongoing fighting and the fluid nature of the front lines.

Recommendations

1. Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
3. Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats.
4. Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks. Target Russian energy infrastructure in response to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
5. Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Investigate and address the reported forced mobilization in Lviv to ensure ethical and legal recruitment practices.
6. Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the commitment from the UK and Latvia to provide 30,000 drones and the German promise to transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems.
7. Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
8. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media.
9. Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
10. Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations.
11. Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Prepare contingency plans for a potential escalation of the conflict, including the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure.
12. Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
13. Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop morale, including desertion and forced mobilization.
14. Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
15. Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
16. Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due