Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025, 03:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and highly unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Intense fighting is concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions.

• In Donetsk, Russian forces continue their offensive, achieving significant gains, notably the capture of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
• In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly around Russkoye Porechnoye and towards Kositsa.
• In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with widespread activity across multiple regions and reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline, with 198 combat clashes since the beginning of the day. There are reports of increased Russian air and missile activity.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
• Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske and towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. DeepState reports advances near Andriivka, Solone, and Novosilka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with 192 attacks in the Donetsk direction and 107 in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces report significant losses inflicted on Russian forces.
• Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones. Russian forces report they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine and claim new positions in the northern part.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
• On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes, with five ongoing.
• On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
• Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
• Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
• Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection.
• Explosions were reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Russian forces claim to have inflicted up to 550 casualties on Ukrainian forces in the "Center" group's area of responsibility.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned. They have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian forces are making small advances in Pogrebki and the Sudzha area. Fighting continues near Kotlyno, Berdin, and Malaya Loknya.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Ukrainian reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian position with a drone. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian ammunition depot.
• Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka: Paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region during the day and since the beginning of hostilities.
• Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
• Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
• Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold.
• The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
• The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
• The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
• In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
• Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
• In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
• Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
• 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
• Almost 30 Ukrainian paratroopers were captured after a failed counterattack in Volchansk.
• Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
• Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
• Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
• Russian forces report that they are continuing to storm Pogrebki and that both sides are present in the village. Russian forces also report that they are conducting an offensive west of Novaya Sorochina.
• Russian forces report that they control most of Russkoye Porechnoye and are concentrating reserves southwest of Kozino.
• Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
• Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
• FPV-equipped FAB (high-explosive aerial bomb) munitions are reportedly in use by Russian drone operators in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. In the Kupyansk area, the RF Armed Forces attacked armored vehicles west of Orlyansky. The RF Armed Forces expanded the control zone by more than 300 meters along the Kupyansk-Orlyanskoye highway.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
• DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova.
• The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
• On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.
• New: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area of the Kharkiv region, but the Russian Armed Forces prevented a breakthrough of the defense line.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
• Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
• Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.
• Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
• Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts:
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi. A drone is reported to be west of Zhytomyr, heading west/southwest.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Air raid alerts have been reported for Kyiv. Reports indicate a drone hit a multi-story building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv, damaging windows and 6 cars, but causing no casualties. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest. Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl. A drone is reported to be heading towards Boryspil from the east. An additional drone is reported on the north of Kyiv region, with a course towards Zhytomyr region. Another drone is reported on the south of Kyiv region, with a course towards Vinnytsia region. A drone is reported on the north of Kyiv region, with a course towards the southwest. The air raid alert has been called off for Kyiv.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
  • Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. A missile was reported near Mykolaiv, and later, flying towards Nova Odesa (Mykolaiv region). Another missile was reported approaching Yelanets. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. A new drone is heading towards/through Nikopol. A drone is on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Enemy drones are entering the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia. An enemy drone is approaching Sumy from the south. Enemy drones are observed in Sumy Oblast (moving north through Sumy) and in the center of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - north-east. A new drone is reported moving towards Dnipro from the southwest. One drone is observed in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an eastern course. An enemy drone is observed on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, with a western/northwestern course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - the threat of using enemy attack UAVs! A drone is flying in the Sumy region to the north through Sumy! A drone is in the center of the Dnipropetrovsk region with a north-easterly course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - threat of enemy attack UAVs! 🛵 Chernihiv region - the threat of using enemy attack UAVs! A drone is flying in the Sumy region to the north through Sumy! A drone is in the center of the Dnipropetrovsk region with a north-easterly course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - threat of enemy attack UAVs! 1 drone over Cherkasy is heading towards Kyiv region. 5 drones near Konotop, heading southwest. A drone is also reported on the south of Sumy region, with a direction towards Poltava region. One drone is circling at the intersection of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. One drone is approaching Poltava. One drone is in the south of Kharkiv Oblast, with a southern course. One drone is moving from the Okhtyrka area to Poltava Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest. A drone was reported in the east, moving southwest.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska. One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
  • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny. A drone is also reported on the Poltava region, with a western course. An enemy drone is reported on the north of the Poltava region with a southwesterly course. A drone is reported moving south in Poltava Oblast.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. A drone is on Cherkasy region, with a course towards Poltava region. A drone is reported on the north of the Cherkasy region with a course to the southeast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is reported to be flying over the region.
  • Odesa Oblast: Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
  • Kherson Oblast: A group of attack drones is reported on the north of the Kherson region with a course to the south.
  • Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Air raid alerts have been called off for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • 9 drones are now reported to be circling Zaporizhzhia.
  • Reports of drones being used to attack targets in Crimea. An explosion was reported in Kerch, potentially due to air defense activity. Reports that unknown drones are attacking Voronezh and Kursk in Russia.
  • Video evidence of a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot using an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable.
  • Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaged a cannon using drones.
  • Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone successfully hitting the target, causing an explosion.
  • Reports of a fire near Lake Bam, on the outskirts of Novorossiysk.
  • Reports of an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea.
  • Reports of drone attacks on Novorossiysk, with Russian air defenses attempting to intercept them.
  • Russian Telegram channels report air defense activity and the interception of drones and missiles over Sevastopol, Kerch, Taman, and the "Kavkaz" port.
  • Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
  • Local authorities in Anapa report air defense activity.
  • A community is requesting information about sightings in local chats in Anapa.
  • A video from the Telegram channel "Colonelcassad" shows the destruction of an aerial repeater based on the Matrice 30t UAV in Pokrovsk.
  • Video evidence shows Russian drone operators destroying a Ukrainian Grad MLRS in the Kherson region. The video shows the drone identifying the target, followed by a strike from a "Lancet" loitering munition.
  • The new messages confirm that a drone crashed into an apartment building in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, Russia. This incident highlights the increasing use of drones in the conflict and the potential for such attacks to occur deep inside Russian territory. The lack of official information regarding casualties or the origin of the drone adds to the uncertainty surrounding the incident.
  • The claim by Colonelcassad that Zuckerberg confirmed the CIA reads WhatsApp messages is a significant accusation that could have implications for information security and privacy. However, without further evidence or context, it is difficult to assess the validity of this claim.
  • The report by TASS about the physical launch of the nuclear reactor on the "Admiral Nakhimov" cruiser is a significant development that could have implications for the naval balance of power in the region. This event underscores Russia's ongoing efforts to modernize its military capabilities.
  • The report by Colonelcassad about a massive enemy drone attack on several regions of Russia indicates a significant escalation in the use of drone warfare. The reported attacks on Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Crimea, Kursk, and Tambov Oblasts suggest a coordinated effort by Ukrainian forces to strike targets deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas, as seen in Tambov, raises concerns about civilian casualties and the potential for further escalation.
  • The video shared by ASTRA showing additional footage from Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, where drones hit two residential buildings, further emphasizes the impact of the drone attacks on civilian areas. The lack of information about casualties adds to the uncertainty surrounding the incident.
  • The report by "Николаевский Ванёк" about the remaining drone activity indicates that the drone attacks are ongoing and that Ukrainian forces are continuing to target various locations. The mention of specific locations, such as Kryvyi Rih, Kremenchuk, and Mirgorod, suggests that Ukrainian forces are attempting to strike strategic targets or disrupt Russian military operations.
  • Over 15 drones were shot down over the Voronezh region of Russia.
  • Drone attacks are reported in Anapa.
  • The new messages confirm that drones crashed into two apartment buildings in Kotovsk, Tambov Oblast, Russia. The acting governor of the region reported that several people were injured by glass shards, but there were no fires. This incident further demonstrates the reach of Ukrainian drone attacks, extending deep into Russian territory and targeting residential areas. The use of drones to strike civilian infrastructure raises concerns about potential civilian casualties and the escalation of the conflict.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces successfully destroying an FPV drone control center in the Pokrovsk direction. The video shows two separate strikes on a building, the second after the targeted individuals had moved to a new location.
  • Several drones of the "aircraft type" were shot down over the Belgorod region. There were no casualties or damage.
  • New: Video evidence of a Russian drone destroying a Ukrainian BMP "Bradley"

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23.
• US Legal Action: A US court has sentenced a Canadian citizen to 3.5 years in prison for allegedly illegally exporting electronic equipment to Russia. Three Russians have been charged in the US with money laundering, accused of involvement in cryptocurrency mixers Blender.io and Sinbad.io.
• Migration Crisis: Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones, are facing a significant migration crisis, with potential impacts on labor, housing, and social spending.
• Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico has praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies as a positive outcome. He also accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
• Western Support for Ukraine: A Foreign Policy op-ed by Stephen Walt suggests that supporters of Kyiv in the West may soon face a debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" after the conflict ends.
• US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
• BRICS Data: Data on contracts of international organizations, primarily the BRICS New Development Bank, may appear on the public procurement website.
• Ukraine-Poland Relations: Ukraine has, for the first time, permitted Poland to conduct exhumations of those who died in Volyn during World War II, according to the Prime Minister of Poland.
• Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian Revival party, Kostadin Kostadinov, has called for the annexation of Southern Bessarabia (part of the Odesa region) to Bulgaria, citing the presence of a Bulgarian population in the area.
• Serbia: Serbia has until February 25 to withdraw Russian capital from the NIS company due to the inclusion of Gazprom Neft and Gazprom assets in the US sanctions list, according to the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic.
• US-Ukraine: President Biden in a telephone conversation with Zelensky reaffirmed the continued support for Ukraine from the US. Zelensky thanked Biden for his support and discussed the details of new sanctions against Russia, particularly the targeting of Russia's energy sector, which is a critical source of funding for Putin's war. Zelensky also emphasized the need to further strengthen Ukraine's air defense, noting the effectiveness of "Patriot" systems.
• EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela on the day of Maduro's inauguration, targeting 15 individuals accused of undermining democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Maduro announced that he will meet with Volodin, who represented Russia at the inauguration. Vyacheslav Volodin, on behalf of the Russian President, extended congratulations to Nicolas Maduro on his inauguration.
• Russia-Spain: Russia has become the second-largest supplier of gas to Spain in 2024, according to data from the energy company Enagás.
• US-Russia: In the US, three Russians have been charged with money laundering: Roman Ostapenko, Alexander Oleynik, and Anton Tarasov. They are accused of being involved in the activities of cryptocurrency mixers Blender.io and Sinbad.io, according to the US Department of Justice.
• Since 2022, the US has invested $5.5 billion in increasing the production of shells and missiles, according to a Pentagon report.
• Biden's statement regarding Harris's potential to defeat Trump in an election is a political statement that is not directly related to the military situation in Ukraine.
• Volodin discussed the interaction of parliamentarians of the Russian Federation, Venezuela, Algeria, China and Serbia.

Other Key Developments

• Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
• Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
• DeepState Map Update: The map has been updated, reflecting Russian advances in multiple locations and adjustments to the contact line in the Kursk region. The map also indicates that Russian forces have been spotted in almost all areas of Toretsk, although the exact line of contact is still being clarified.
• Russian Propagandist's Health: Prominent Russian propagandist Tigran Keosayan is reportedly in a coma after suffering clinical death due to heart problems.
• New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, and members of the Rosatom board. These measures are considered the most significant sanctions against the Russian energy sector, which is the largest source of revenue for the Kremlin's military machine. These new sanctions will not affect the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine, according to a source. Ukrtransnafta has no contracts with Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, which are under sanctions. The only contractor is Transneft.
• NATO Spending: NATO countries are reportedly not planning to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, as suggested by Donald Trump, but may consider raising it to 3%.
• Testing of a new air raid alert system: The testing of a new air raid alert system has begun in the Cherkasy region.
• Italian Volunteer in Russian Army Captured: An Italian citizen, who worked as a pizza maker in Russia and voluntarily joined the Russian army in November 2024, was captured by Ukrainian paratroopers from the 78th Separate Assault Regiment.
• NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart on the territory of Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece from January 13 to February 26. The exercises will involve 10,000 troops and will test the ability of NATO's rapid reaction forces to deploy quickly and operate in a simulated conflict with a near-peer adversary.
• Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Positions: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have launched approximately 3,000 strikes on Ukrainian positions.
• Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged.
• TikTok Outage: A service disruption has been reported for TikTok in Russia.
• Approximately 50 people die each day in Britain due to waiting in hospitals that are unable to cope with the influx of patients, according to The Times. The influx of patients is linked to a seasonal flu outbreak.
• The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone moving south in Poltava Oblast and a drone moving southwest in Kherson Oblast.
• Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army, according to the Center for National Resistance (CNS). The Kremlin reportedly plans to increase the mobilization of Ukrainians for conscription in the spring, despite the failed results of the autumn campaign. The Russian occupation administrations have begun forming lists of residents of the occupied territories of Ukraine. The CNS attributes the occupiers' optimism to the expansion of military enlistment offices and the issuance of Russian passports.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is especially critical, with reports indicating further Russian advances within the city and Russian troops infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly around Russkoye Porechnoye and towards Kositsa. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. The new reports of FPV-equipped FAB munitions in use by Russian forces in the Kursk region indicate a further escalation in the use of improvised drone weaponry.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity across multiple regions and new reports of drone movements in several oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The use of drones to target residential areas, as seen in Tambov, raises concerns about civilian casualties and the potential for further escalation. The confirmed drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, including Engels, Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, demonstrate the reach and increasing sophistication of Ukrainian drone capabilities. The reports of a fire near Lake Bam on the outskirts of Novorossiysk and an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea, further indicate the ongoing nature of these attacks. The successful destruction of a Ukrainian FPV drone control center by Russian forces and the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP "Bradley" highlights the ongoing battle for dominance in drone warfare.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with continued international support for Ukraine, concerns about China's role in supporting Russia's military industry, and potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia. The migration crisis in Western countries could potentially impact their ability to support Ukraine in the long term. The new sanctions against the Russian energy sector and the head of Rosatom demonstrate the continued pressure being applied by the US and its allies.

The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights the ongoing efforts by Russia to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. This development could further exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the occupied territories.