Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 10, 2025, 23:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk, achieving significant gains, notably the capture of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, with reports indicating Russian forces are actively working to destroy Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive is ongoing, but with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area, as well as near Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Guyevo, Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, resistant to electronic warfare, and widespread drone activity across multiple regions, with a particular concentration in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes, reporting successful strikes on Russian equipment and personnel, including 2 enemy electronic warfare systems, a cannon, 3 BTRs, and a T-90 tank. They also report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline, with 198 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, almost 61 near Pokrovsk. There are also reports of increased Russian air and missile activity, including air raid alerts for Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. A new wave of drone attacks is underway, targeting multiple regions of Ukraine and Russia. Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Additionally, reports suggest drone attacks on Voronezh and Kursk in Russia. Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated. There are reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea. These incidents suggest possible Ukrainian drone or missile strikes.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is "factually lost."
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. The enemy is attempting to capture a thermal power plant near Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Ukrainian forces attempting to defend the remaining territory. Russian assault groups infiltrated the combat formations of the Ukrainian troops, the enemy is being detected and destroyed, reports the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortytsia." The battle for Toretsk is approaching its culmination. Russian forces are establishing a flag on a slag heap in the northern part of the city. This confirms their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk).
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. Russian forces have advanced in the northern part of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), expanding their control zone. Russian forces, specifically the "🅾️тважные" group, are reportedly mass-destroying enemy equipment and infantry near Pokrovsk.
• Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, with progress near Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske, along the Kupyansk-Orlyanske highway. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Ukrainian forces report that in the Kurakhiv direction, the enemy attacked 73 times during the past day. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that in the Donetsk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 192 times over the past day, 107 times in the Pokrovsk direction. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces have inflicted the following losses on the enemy: 156 killed and 291 wounded, 3 tanks destroyed, 5 armored combat vehicles, 3 artillery systems, 32 anti-aircraft guns, 5 vehicles, and 1 special vehicle. Since the start of the day, there have been 198 clashes.
• Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces report they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine near Chasiv Yar. Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
• On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
• On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka, also attacking along the Stavkovaya gully. South of this area, from the Petropavlovka area, the 114th Brigade is breaking through the Ukrainian fortified area, trying to cut off access to Andreevka from the rear.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
• Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
• Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
• Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection.
• Russian forces are advancing near Solone and west of Volche, with reports of fighting near Novosergievka, Udachne, Zverevo, Chunyshyno, Lisovka, Promin, Myrolyubivka, and Yelyzavetivka. They have also taken control of Baranovka and advanced towards Nova Poltavka.
• Explosions were reported in Samara (formerly Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances near Novaya Sorochina. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves. Russian forces are making small advances in Pogrebki, pushing towards the local school. Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area. Fighting continues near Kotlyno, and Ukrainian forces are struggling to contain the Russian advance.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces. Video evidence of Russian artillery successfully targeting and destroying Ukrainian artillery pieces in the Kursk region.
• New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Russian forces, specifically paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division, are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces and the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region. Ukrainian reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo.
• Makhnovka: Russian channels report that the situation near Makhnovka is as follows: "Statements about the complete liberation of the settlement are premature. There are heavy oncoming battles." Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian position in Makhnovka with a drone, resulting in an explosion and a fire. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian ammunition depot in Makhnovka.
• Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka: In the Kursk region, paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost more than 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 218 infantry fighting vehicles, 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,517 armored fighting vehicles, 1,435 vehicles, 348 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 90 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other materiel, including 15 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• The message states that the operation to neutralize the enemy in the Kursk region continues.
• Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade in the Kursk region.
• "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Enemy reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, and the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance is mentioned.
• Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
• Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
• The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
• The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
• The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
• In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
• Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
• In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
• Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin.
• Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
• Ukrainian airborne troops from the 95th Air Assault Brigade are using drones to attack Russian forces in Pogrebki.
• Russian forces report that they have cleared Berdin of Ukrainian forces and that Ukrainian forces are retreating to the forests.
• Russian forces report that they are continuing to storm Pogrebki and that both sides are present in the village. Russian forces also report that they are conducting an offensive west of Novaya Sorochina.
• Russian forces report that they control most of Russkoye Porechnoye and are concentrating reserves southwest of Kozino.
• Russian forces are continuing their offensive near Leonidovo, advancing towards Viktorivka and Nikolsky.
• Russian forces are attempting to reach the outskirts of Sudzha, with fighting ongoing near Zamostye.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna. In the Kupyansk area, the RF Armed Forces attacked armored vehicles west of Orlyansky. The assault vehicle hit a minefield. The RF Armed Forces expanded the control zone by more than 300 meters along the Kupyansk-Orlyanskoye highway.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
• DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova.
• The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
• On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
• Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
• Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.
• Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka, according to pro-Russian sources.
• Russian forces report that they have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Russian forces report that they have advanced beyond Nadiya and are moving towards the border of the Luhansk People's Republic and the Kharkiv region.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
• New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts:
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Air raid alerts have been reported for Kyiv. Reports indicate a drone hit a multi-story building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv, damaging windows and 6 cars, but causing no casualties. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest. Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl. A drone is reported to be heading towards Boryspil from the east. An additional drone is reported on the north of Kyiv region, with a course towards Zhytomyr region. Another drone is reported on the south of Kyiv region, with a course towards Vinnytsia region. A drone is reported on the north of Kyiv region, with a course towards the southwest. A drone is on Cherkasy region, with a course towards Poltava region.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west. The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
  • Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. A missile was reported near Mykolaiv, and later, flying towards Nova Odesa (Mykolaiv region). Another missile was reported approaching Yelanets. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. A new drone is heading towards/through Nikopol. A drone is on the left bank of Kherson Oblast. Enemy drones are entering the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia. An enemy drone is approaching Sumy from the south. Enemy drones are observed in Sumy Oblast (moving north through Sumy) and in the center of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - north-east. A new drone is reported moving towards Dnipro from the southwest. One drone is observed in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an eastern course. An enemy drone is observed on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, with a western/northwestern course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - the threat of using enemy attack UAVs! A drone is flying in the Sumy region to the north through Sumy! A drone is in the center of the Dnipropetrovsk region with a north-easterly course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - threat of enemy attack UAVs! 🛵 Chernihiv region - the threat of using enemy attack UAVs! A drone is flying in the Sumy region to the north through Sumy! A drone is in the center of the Dnipropetrovsk region with a north-easterly course. 🛵 Chernihiv region - threat of enemy attack UAVs! 1 drone over Cherkasy is heading towards Kyiv region. 5 drones near Konotop, heading southwest. A drone is also reported on the south of Sumy region, with a direction towards Poltava region.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska. One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
  • Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny. A drone is also reported on the Poltava region, with a western course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is reported to be flying over the region.
  • Odesa Oblast: Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west.
  • Overnight, in the Kursk region, 40 Ukrainian drones were destroyed by air defense forces.
  • Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • Air raid alerts have been called off for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
  • 9 drones are now reported to be circling Zaporizhzhia.
  • Reports of drones being used to attack targets in Crimea. An explosion was reported in Kerch, potentially due to air defense activity. Reports that unknown drones are attacking Voronezh and Kursk in Russia.
  • Video evidence of a successful Russian strike on a Ukrainian ammunition depot using an FPV drone equipped with fiber optic cable.
  • Ukrainian forces report that they have destroyed 2 enemy electronic warfare systems and damaged a cannon using drones.
• Video evidence of a Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. The video shows the drone successfully hitting the target, causing an explosion.
• Reports of a fire near Lake Bam, on the outskirts of Novorossiysk.
• Reports of an explosion in the Vitino area near Yevpatoria, Crimea.
• Reports of drone attacks on Novorossiysk, with Russian air defenses attempting to intercept them.
• Russian Telegram channels report air defense activity and the interception of drones and missiles over Sevastopol, Kerch, Taman, and the "Kavkaz" port.
• Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
• Local authorities in Anapa report air defense activity.
• A community is requesting information about sightings in local chats in Anapa.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23.
• US Legal Action: A US court has sentenced a Canadian citizen to 3.5 years in prison for allegedly illegally exporting electronic equipment to Russia. Three Russians have been charged in the US with money laundering, accused of involvement in cryptocurrency mixers Blender.io and Sinbad.io.
• Migration Crisis: Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones, are facing a significant migration crisis, with potential impacts on labor, housing, and social spending.
• Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico has praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies as a positive outcome. He also accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
• Western Support for Ukraine: A Foreign Policy op-ed by Stephen Walt suggests that supporters of Kyiv in the West may soon face a debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" after the conflict ends.
• US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
• BRICS Data: Data on contracts of international organizations, primarily the BRICS New Development Bank, may appear on the public procurement website.
• Ukraine-Poland Relations: Ukraine has, for the first time, permitted Poland to conduct exhumations of those who died in Volyn during World War II, according to the Prime Minister of Poland.
• Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian Revival party, Kostadin Kostadinov, has called for the annexation of Southern Bessarabia (part of the Odesa region) to Bulgaria, citing the presence of a Bulgarian population in the area.
• Serbia: Serbia has until February 25 to withdraw Russian capital from the NIS company due to the inclusion of Gazprom Neft and Gazprom assets in the US sanctions list, according to the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic.
• US-Ukraine: President Biden in a telephone conversation with Zelensky reaffirmed the continued support for Ukraine from the US. Zelensky thanked Biden for his support and discussed the details of new sanctions against Russia, particularly the targeting of Russia's energy sector, which is a critical source of funding for Putin's war. Zelensky also emphasized the need to further strengthen Ukraine's air defense, noting the effectiveness of "Patriot" systems.
• EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela on the day of Maduro's inauguration, targeting 15 individuals accused of undermining democracy, the rule of law, and human rights. Maduro announced that he will meet with Volodin, who represented Russia at the inauguration.
• Russia-Spain: Russia has become the second-largest supplier of gas to Spain in 2024, according to data from the energy company Enagás.
• US-Russia: In the US, three Russians have been charged with money laundering: Roman Ostapenko, Alexander Oleynik, and Anton Tarasov. They are accused of being involved in the activities of cryptocurrency mixers Blender.io and Sinbad.io, according to the US Department of Justice.
• Since 2022, the US has invested $5.5 billion in increasing the production of shells and missiles, according to a Pentagon report.

Other Key Developments

• Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
• Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
• DeepState Map Update: The map has been updated, reflecting Russian advances in multiple locations and adjustments to the contact line in the Kursk region. The map also indicates that Russian forces have been spotted in almost all areas of Toretsk, although the exact line of contact is still being clarified.
• Russian Propagandist's Health: Prominent Russian propagandist Tigran Keosayan is reportedly in a coma after suffering clinical death due to heart problems.
• New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom, Alexei Likhachev, and members of the Rosatom board. These measures are considered the most significant sanctions against the Russian energy sector, which is the largest source of revenue for the Kremlin's military machine. These new sanctions will not affect the transit of Russian oil through Ukraine, according to a source. Ukrtransnafta has no contracts with Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, which are under sanctions. The only contractor is Transneft.
• NATO Spending: NATO countries are reportedly not planning to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, as suggested by Donald Trump, but may consider raising it to 3%.
• Testing of a new air raid alert system: The testing of a new air raid alert system has begun in the Cherkasy region.
• Italian Volunteer in Russian Army Captured: An Italian citizen, who worked as a pizza maker in Russia and voluntarily joined the Russian army in November 2024, was captured by Ukrainian paratroopers from the 78th Separate Assault Regiment.
• NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart on the territory of Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece from January 13 to February 26. The exercises will involve 10,000 troops and will test the ability of NATO's rapid reaction forces to deploy quickly and operate in a simulated conflict with a near-peer adversary.
• Russian Attacks on Ukrainian Positions: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces have launched approximately 3,000 strikes on Ukrainian positions.
• Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged.
• TikTok Outage: A service disruption has been reported for TikTok in Russia.
• Space Cooperation: An agreement between Roscosmos and NASA for cross-flights to the ISS has been extended. Flights will take place in 2025-2026, according to the Cosmonaut Training Center.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is especially critical, with reports indicating further Russian advances within the city, culminating in the establishment of a flag on a slag heap in the northern part of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region continues, but with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. The ISW report confirms Russian advances in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions, underscoring the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.

The new video evidence of Russian artillery successfully targeting and destroying Ukrainian artillery pieces in the Kursk region demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian counter-battery operations and the use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. This development further emphasizes the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, where they are already struggling to counter Russian advances. The 56th Airborne Regiment and "Northerners" are actively engaging Ukrainian forces, successfully targeting and eliminating artillery systems. The use of "Zala" drones for reconnaissance and "Lancet" drones for strikes underscores the sophisticated tactics employed by Russian forces. The new video evidence of a "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group successfully targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region further demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian drone warfare and the vulnerability of Ukrainian armored vehicles.

Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with new reports of drone movements across multiple regions.