Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of January 10, 2025, 02:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and complex, with a marked increase in hostilities across multiple fronts. Russian forces are maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have achieved significant gains around Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk. The situation in Toretsk is especially critical, with Ukrainian control dwindling to less than 15%. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region continues, despite initial Ukrainian claims of success, with heavy fighting reported and significant territorial gains by Russian forces near Sudzha, including near Makhnovka where they struck a Ukrainian group at night using an FPV drone. Drone warfare remains a dominant and pervasive feature, with widespread activity across multiple oblasts and reports of new Russian drones resistant to electronic warfare. The confirmed drone activity, including attacks on Kyiv, underscore the persistent threat to urban centers and civilian infrastructure.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex and uncertain. The potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin, coupled with reports of a potential meeting between Trump and Putin, signals a possible shift in the diplomatic approach to the conflict. The expected new U.S. military aid package for Ukraine, although significant, is tempered by the acknowledgment that not all aid can be delivered before January 20th. Internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, coupled with mobilization challenges, adds another layer of complexity to the situation.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is assessed as "factually lost." This represents a significant strategic loss for Ukraine, impacting the defense of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Video evidence confirms intense urban warfare, with Ukrainian units targeting Russian positions within the city. Russian forces are conducting clean-up operations and claim control of 85% of the city. The battle for Toretsk is described as crucial for the fate of nearby cities, including Chasiv Yar, Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. The "Ot ভারতবর্ষে" group is actively engaging Ukrainian forces, destroying enemy equipment and personnel, and advancing towards Pokrovsk. Russian forces have advanced in the northern part of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), expanding their control zone. A new video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows an artillery unit operating a 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, reportedly using "Krasnopol-M2" precision-guided munitions to destroy a Ukrainian command post in the Krasnoarmiisk area.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka, further solidifying their gains in the region.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, with fighting continuing in these areas. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area indicates continued pressure on this key location. Russian forces report they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine near Chasiv Yar. Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka.
Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a US-supplied M-113 armored personnel carrier near Dzerzhynsk using a drone.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Tank Warfare: A video from the "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel showcases Russian tank crews from the "Southern" group of forces supporting the advance of assault units after the capture of Kurakhove. The video highlights the continued importance of armored warfare in the conflict and the role of tanks in providing fire support to infantry. The gunner's emphasis on training and the challenges of hitting smaller targets, such as trenches and fortified bunkers, provides insights into the tactical realities of tank warfare. The video also underscores the importance of close cooperation between the gunner and the tank commander and the need for accurate coordinate delivery and adjustment. The focus on destroying enemy strongholds and firing points suggests an ongoing effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses and pave the way for further advances.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses, estimated at up to 48,000 casualties. Despite these setbacks, Zelensky has characterized the Kursk operation as a major victory. The US has acknowledged the strategic importance of the Kursk operation for future negotiations.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in several areas, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves. Russian forces are making small advances in Pogrebki, pushing towards the local school. Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces reported.
New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Ukrainian forces in the region since the beginning of hostilities, including over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, and various other military equipment.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack and destroyed a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier near Kupyansk.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove. Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Air raid alerts have been reported for Kyiv. Reports indicate a drone hit a multi-story building in the Solomyanskyi district of Kyiv, damaging windows and 6 cars, but causing no casualties.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest. Six drones are flying from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Oleksandriia. One drone is at the intersection of Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv Oblasts, with a western course.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Two drones were reported in the Izyum district.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska. Five new drones were reported at the intersection of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a western course. Two new drones were reported over Marhanets with a north-western course. Two drones are flying from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is circling south of Poltava. Two drones are circling north of Myrhorod. One drone was reported north of Kremenchuk, with a western course. One drone is in the south of Poltava Oblast, moving north and south. One drone is in the Kremenchuk district, with a southern course. Kremenchuk has been urged to take shelter due to the threat of a drone from the south. A drone is reported to be heading towards Myrhorod from the southeast.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is moving through/towards Cherkasy.
- Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is reported to be flying over the region. A drone threat has been announced for Vinnytsia Oblast.
New: Reports indicate several drones in flight: one from Kirovohrad Oblast to Vinnytsia Oblast, two along the Dnipro River towards Cherkasy, one from the north towards/through Kryvyi Rih, three north of Kremenchuk with a northwesterly course, and one through Boyarka towards Kyiv.
Air Defense Engagements: 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 41 out of 64 drones overnight. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that in the night of January 8, 2025 a large scale attack was launched using 64 attack UAVs of the "Shahed" type, as well as decoy drones from Orel, Kursk, Bryansk, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. As of 9:00 AM, 41 attack UAVs were confirmed to be destroyed, including "Shahed" and other types of drones, in Poltava, Sumy, Kharkiv, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad Oblasts. 22 decoy drones were lost without negative consequences. Three of them headed towards Russia, and one towards Belarus.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier.
Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region.
Video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting Russian infantry in the Kharkiv region.
New: A drone threat has been announced for Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
New: A drone is reported to be heading towards Kryvyi Rih from the north.
New: An air raid alert has been announced for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
New: One drone from Kirovohrad Oblast has flown into Vinnytsia Oblast.
New: Two drones are flying along the Dnipro River towards Cherkasy.
New: One drone is flying from the north towards/through Kryvyi Rih.
New: Three drones are flying north of Kremenchuk with a northwesterly course.
New: One drone is flying through Boyarka towards Kyiv.
New: Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts are under threat of enemy drone attacks.
New: A suspected reconnaissance drone is over Zaporizhzhia.
New: Two drones are in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading northwest.
New: One drone is leaving Mykolaiv Oblast in the direction of Vinnytsia Oblast.
New: One drone has flown past Kryvyi Rih in the direction of Bereznehuvate.
New: One drone is flying from Cherkasy Oblast towards Kyiv Oblast.
New: One new drone is approaching Dnipro city and may be audible during anti-drone operations.
New: Electronic warfare has suppressed and destroyed 16 drones in the Rostov region of Russia.
New: A fire broke out in a house in the village of Chaltyr and at an enterprise in the village of Krym in the Rostov region due to a drone attack.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump has announced that he is preparing for the meeting, although no specific timeframe has been provided.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. A new substantial package is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting. The US Congress is considering a resolution to recognize Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide.
President Zelensky has signed a law creating a list of terrorist organizations in Ukraine.
Zelensky indicates a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU.
Leaders of the "Ramstein" Contact Group on Ukraine's defense are reportedly set to approve "roadmaps" for each of the eight areas of cooperation, outlining strategic goals and key military aid needs until at least the end of 2027.
The Ukrainian Parliament has voted in favor of a bill on basic military training.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine should be brought to the best possible position when it decides to sit down at the negotiating table.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy suggested that if Trump wins the election, a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine might be reached by Easter.
The team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump has reportedly stopped pushing for a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
Poland is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, according to Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.
The UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones. Germany will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to the ICC's arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Scholz Blocks Aid Package: German Chancellor Scholz has reportedly blocked a new billion-euro aid package for Ukraine, despite support from Foreign Minister Baerbock and Defense Minister Pistorius. This suggests internal disagreements within the German government regarding the level of support for Ukraine.
US Court Rejects Trump's Appeal: The US Supreme Court has rejected Trump's request to postpone the sentencing in the Trump Organization financial documents forgery case, scheduled for January 10th. This could potentially impact Trump's political standing and future plans.
Armenia: Russia is reportedly blackmailing Armenia with increased energy and food prices, as well as a 70-80% reduction in exports, if Armenia withdraws from the CSTO. A bill on joining the European Union puts Yerevan before a choice, as the CSTO and the EU are deemed incompatible.
Japan Imposes Sanctions on Russia: Japan has imposed sanctions on 11 individuals and 29 legal entities from Russia, as well as 3 banks. This move further isolates Russia economically and demonstrates international condemnation of its actions in Ukraine. Japan has also imposed export restrictions on 31 companies from China, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Thailand, and Turkey as part of anti-Russian measures.
New: Donald Trump has announced that he is preparing for a meeting with Vladimir Putin. This announcement adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape, and the potential implications of this meeting should be carefully considered.

Other Significant Developments

Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 120 and later to 13, with 32 people injured.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi.
Mobilization Discussion: A video featuring a discussion with the ex-Minister of Defense of Britain suggests that Ukraine should mobilize all men from 18 years old to increase personnel strength. There is also a video showing the TCC (Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support) forcefully packing a man into a vehicle in Kyiv.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
Russian military correspondent reporting: A video from a Russian military correspondent features an interview with a mobilized soldier with the callsign "Bek," who discusses the importance of awareness on the battlefield due to the threat from the air, as well as an engagement with Polish troops. Another video from the same correspondent shows soldiers from various volunteer battalions expressing gratitude for the correspondent's work.
Mass Killings in Selydove: A video from "Colonelcassad" presents evidence of alleged mass killings of civilians in Selydove by Ukrainian forces. The video includes testimonies from residents and aims to support the narrative of Ukrainian war crimes. This could be used as propaganda by Russian forces to justify their actions and undermine international support for Ukraine.
Arrest for Treason: A resident of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk People's Republic has been arrested by the regional FSB on charges of treason. The individual is accused of funding Ukrainian combatants. The video of the arrest serves as both a counter-intelligence operation and a propaganda tool, demonstrating Russia's efforts to suppress internal support for Ukraine and reinforce its narrative of the conflict. The incident highlights Russia's attempts to control the local population, interdict logistical support for Ukrainian forces, and utilize information operations to deter potential supporters of Ukraine.
New: A resident of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk People's Republic has been arrested by the regional FSB on charges of treason for allegedly funding Ukrainian combatants.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely precarious, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region. The fall of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk, where Ukrainian control is dwindling, are major setbacks. Russian forces are making substantial gains, threatening key locations like Pokrovsk and the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has been repelled, with significant losses. Russian forces have made new advances in the Sudzha area, including striking a Ukrainian group at night with an FPV drone near Makhnovka.

Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, but the threat remains significant, as evidenced by the reported drone strike on a multi-story residential building in Kyiv and drone attacks in the Rostov region.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian forces have made significant advances, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya and occupying the forest near Zapadnoye and the north-eastern part of Dvurichna.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex. The expected announcement of a substantial final US weapons package for Ukraine during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting is a positive development, but the US has indicated it will not be able to provide all aid before January 20th. Statements from Zelensky and Macron suggest potential shifts in approach, while Trump's stance on NATO and Ukraine, and his announcement of a meeting with Putin, adds another layer of uncertainty. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could potentially impact international support for Ukraine.

New developments include the declaration of air raid alerts across Ukraine due to the threat of Russian missile attacks and the activity of tactical aviation, including the detection of a MiG-31K, capable of carrying Kinzhal missiles. Russian forces are actively shelling positions near Kurakhove and have launched guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast. The threat of ballistic missile usage from the southeast has also been reported. The new messages add further details on the ongoing drone activity, with multiple drones reported in various regions, including Vinnytsia, Kryvyi Rih, Myrhorod, and areas near the Dnipro River. This indicates a continued and widespread drone threat across Ukraine. The announcement of an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast further underscores the heightened state of alert. The announcement by Donald Trump that he is preparing for a meeting with Vladimir Putin adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. The video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, showing the use of a "Msta-B" howitzer and "Krasnopol-M2" precision-guided munitions, highlights the ongoing artillery engagements in the Krasnoarmiisk area. The video showcasing Russian tank crews supporting the advance of assault units after the capture of Kurakhove underscores the continued importance of armored warfare. The arrest of a resident of Yenakiieve in the Donetsk People's Republic on charges of treason for allegedly funding Ukrainian combatants serves as both a counter-intelligence operation and a propaganda tool, demonstrating Russia's efforts to suppress internal support for Ukraine. The imposition of export restrictions by Japan on companies from various countries, including China and the UAE, as part of anti-Russian measures, further isolates Russia economically. The reports of drone attacks in the Rostov region, resulting in fires and the suppression of 16 drones by electronic warfare, highlight the ongoing drone warfare and its impact on Russian territory.

The situation remains fluid and highly volatile. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, and the evolving geopolitical landscape contribute to the complexity of the situation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for further escalation.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Given the recent success of Russian armored units near Yelyzavetivka, prioritize the deployment of anti-tank weapons and units capable of countering armored thrusts.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. Given the recent successful use of drones by Ukrainian forces to target individual soldiers, continue to invest in and develop drone technology for precision strikes. Develop and deploy countermeasures to the new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel to these facilities.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Address the issues raised by the video of the TCC forcefully packing a man into a vehicle in Kyiv.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public. Analyze and counter the messaging in the videos from the Russian military correspondent "Voenkor Kotenok."
Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment to sustain operations. Anticipate and mitigate potential logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks and potential disruptions to supply lines.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast and any signs of further escalation or Russian incursions, as well as the Kharkiv region where Russian forces are making significant advances.
Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict and lessons learned from operational outcomes.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, such as the scandal involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev, to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, such as Yelyzavetivka and other points along the front lines.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed to respond to emerging threats and opportunities.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed to achieve desired outcomes.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the reports of Russian troop movements and drone activity in Sumy Oblast, reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems as needed.
Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Given the significant Russian advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, prioritize efforts to halt their progress and stabilize the front lines. Deploy reinforcements, enhance defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: With Russian forces capturing Storozheve and forming a new "pocket" near Velyka Novosilka, explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in their positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Prepare for Air Attacks: Given the declaration of air raid alerts and the threat of missile strikes, ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and ready to engage incoming threats. Coordinate with relevant authorities to ensure the safety of civilians and critical infrastructure.
Counter Russian Advances near Kurakhove: Deploy additional forces to the Kurakhove area to counter the Russian offensive and prevent further advances. Prioritize the use of artillery and drones to target Russian positions and disrupt their operations.
Maintain Air Superiority: Given the threat of guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast, maintain air superiority in the region and deploy air defense systems to counter potential attacks.
Monitor MiG-31K Activity: Track the movements of the detected MiG-31K and assess the potential threat posed by Kinzhal missiles. Prepare air defense systems and coordinate with intelligence agencies to monitor the situation.
Disrupt Russian Advances on Lyman: Given reports of Russian advances from Ivanivka towards Kolodezi on the Lyman axis, reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and conduct counterattacks to regain lost ground. Utilize drones and artillery to target Russian forces and disrupt their advance.
Maintain Public Morale: Address the concerns of the public regarding air raid alerts and potential attacks. Provide clear and timely information through official channels to maintain public morale and ensure cooperation with safety measures.
Assess Impact of Drone Attacks: Evaluate the impact of recent drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly the oil depot in Engels. Gather intelligence on the extent of damage and adjust operational plans accordingly. Exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses identified through these attacks.
Enhance International Cooperation: Continue to engage with international partners to secure further military and financial assistance. Emphasize the need for advanced air defense systems, long-range missiles, and counter-drone technology to counter the evolving threat landscape.
Strengthen Diplomatic Efforts: Respond to the statements made by the Hungarian Foreign Minister and reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to European integration. Counter any attempts to manipulate the situation for political gain and maintain a unified front with international allies.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding statements and actions by key figures such as Trump, Macron, and Scholz. Assess the potential impact of these developments on international support for Ukraine and adjust diplomatic efforts accordingly.
Address Internal Security Threats: Investigate reports of sabotage attempts on Ukrainian railway lines and take measures to enhance security around critical infrastructure. Apprehend and prosecute individuals involved in such activities to deter future attacks and maintain internal stability.
Improve Troop Morale and Discipline: Address allegations of misconduct and abuse within the ranks of the Russian military. Investigate reports of threats and violence against soldiers, and take appropriate disciplinary action against those responsible. Implement measures to improve troop morale and maintain discipline within units.
Counter Information Warfare: Respond to any disinformation or propaganda efforts aimed at undermining Ukraine's position or creating internal divisions. Utilize official channels to provide accurate information and counter false narratives.
Assess Economic Impact: Evaluate the impact of the conflict on the economies of both Ukraine and Russia. Monitor key indicators such as inflation, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions. Adjust economic policies as needed to mitigate negative consequences and maintain stability.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the continued fighting and the threat of further escalation, maintain a high level of readiness and prepare contingency plans for various scenarios. Ensure that military and civilian authorities are prepared to respond effectively to any developments.
Address Humanitarian Concerns: Continue to provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict, particularly those displaced or living in areas under threat. Coordinate with international organizations to ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid and address the needs of vulnerable populations.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security in all communications and activities. Avoid disclosing sensitive information that could compromise ongoing operations or endanger personnel.
Monitor Troop Movements: Keep a close watch on troop movements and deployments on both sides of the conflict. Utilize intelligence assets to track Russian advances and identify potential vulnerabilities in their positions.
Enhance Cyber Security: Given the increasing use of technology in the conflict, strengthen cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure and prevent cyber attacks. Coordinate with international partners to enhance cyber defense capabilities.
Assess Environmental Impact: Monitor the environmental impact of the conflict, particularly in areas affected by industrial accidents or military strikes. Address any ecological concerns and mitigate long-term damage to the environment.
Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. Assess the damage to infrastructure, economy, and society, and develop strategies for rebuilding and reconciliation.
Maintain Diplomatic Channels: Keep diplomatic channels open with all relevant parties, including international allies, neutral countries, and even adversaries. Utilize diplomacy to seek a peaceful resolution to the conflict and address any underlying issues.
Adapt to Evolving Threats: Continuously adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict, including new technologies, tactics, and strategies employed by both sides. Invest in research and development to maintain a competitive edge and counter emerging threats.
Monitor Russian Military Activities: Pay close attention to reports of Russian military activities, including troop movements, equipment deployments, and potential offensive operations.

Situation Report