Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 10, 2025, 00:03 UTC)
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk, achieving significant gains, notably the capture of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, suffering heavy casualties. Russian forces have regained territory and are making advances in the Sudzha area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, resistant to electronic warfare, and widespread drone activity across multiple regions. Ukrainian forces are actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes. A new U.S. military aid package for Ukraine is expected soon, though previous supplies have not shifted the balance in favor of Kyiv. Reports indicate a potential meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd. There are also reports of increasing pressure from Russia on Armenia regarding energy prices and exports, potentially related to Armenia's consideration of joining the EU.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding the western part, including a thermal power plant. The city is "factually lost."
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. The "Ot ভারতবর্ষে" group is actively engaging Ukrainian forces, destroying enemy equipment and personnel, and advancing towards Pokrovsk.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka. Russian forces have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Ivanovka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Fighting continues in these areas.
Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area. Russian forces report that they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine near Chasiv Yar.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction. Particularly fierce battles are occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka.
Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a US-supplied M-113 armored personnel carrier near Dzerzhynsk using a drone.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in several areas, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves. Russian forces are making small advances in Pogrebki, pushing towards the local school.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces.
New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant losses for Ukrainian forces in the region since the beginning of hostilities, including over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, and various other military equipment.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Kharkiv Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack and destroyed a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier near Kupyansk.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River). Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using FPV drones to target Russian infantry in the Kharkiv region.
New Drone Technology: ISW reports that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. One drone is circling at the intersection of Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts. One drone is approaching Poltava. One drone is in the south of Kharkiv Oblast, with a southern course. One drone is moving from the Okhtyrka area to Poltava Oblast. A new threat of drones has been announced for Donetsk Oblast. An enemy drone is reported to be south of Kyiv. An enemy drone is also flying towards Myrhorod from the north.
Air Defense Engagements: 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier.
Video from "STERNENKO" shows Ukrainian forces from the Flying Skull drone unit targeting Russian positions in the Kursk region.
Video from "Оперативний ЗСУ" shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting Russian infantry in the Kharkiv region.
Geopolitical Developments
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
President Zelensky has signed a law creating a list of terrorist organizations in Ukraine.
Zelensky indicates a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU.
Leaders of the "Ramstein" Contact Group on Ukraine's defense are reportedly set to approve "roadmaps" for each of the eight areas of cooperation, outlining strategic goals and key military aid needs until at least the end of 2027.
The Ukrainian Parliament has voted in favor of a bill on basic military training.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine should be brought to the best possible position when it decides to sit down at the negotiating table.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy suggested that if Trump wins the election, a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine might be reached by Easter.
The team of the newly elected US President Donald Trump has reportedly stopped pushing for a truce between Russia and Ukraine.
Poland is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, according to Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.
The UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones. Germany will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) in response to the ICC's arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Armenia: Russia is reportedly blackmailing Armenia with increased energy and food prices, as well as a 70-80% reduction in exports, if Armenia withdraws from the CSTO. A bill on joining the European Union puts Yerevan before a choice, as the CSTO and the EU are deemed incompatible.
Other Significant Developments
Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 120.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi.
Mobilization Discussion: A video featuring a discussion with the ex-Minister of Defense of Britain suggests that Ukraine should mobilize all men from 18 years old to increase personnel strength.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
