Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 9, 2025, 23:03 UTC)

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk, achieving significant gains, notably the capture of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and making advances in the Sudzha area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with Ukrainian forces actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes, while Russian forces utilize them for similar purposes and to suppress Ukrainian positions.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces fully control Kurakhove.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka. Russian forces are advancing towards Tarasovka. On the right flank, Russian units are attacking with armored vehicles on the outskirts of Yelyzavetivka. Battles continue in Baranivka, with most of the village under Russian control. On the left flank, Russian forces are attacking near Kotlyno, Zverevo, and Krasnoarmeyskoye. Battles for Zelene and Lysovka continue.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 144 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, particularly in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
Ukrainian forces report that in the Donetsk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 192 times over the past day, 107 times in the Pokrovsk direction and 73 times in the Kurakhiv direction. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces have inflicted the following losses on the enemy: 156 killed and 291 wounded, 3 tanks destroyed, 5 armored combat vehicles, 3 artillery systems, 32 anti-aircraft guns, 5 vehicles, and 1 special vehicle.
Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack on Yelyzavetivka, launched from Vozdvyzhenka. Only two Russian armored vehicles reached Yelyzavetivka and were destroyed. However, Russian forces are regrouping in Novooleksandrivka for further attacks. The situation in Baranivka is being clarified. Vozdvyzhenka is identified as a key point for Russian advances towards the highway and as a potential route to bypass Myrnohrad.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction. Particularly fierce battles are occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Further south, Russian units are attacking near Sribne - Novoandriivka - Yaseneve. An assault is underway in Yaseneve. Further south, Russian units are advancing in the forested areas up to Slovyanka. Near Petropavlivka, the enemy launched an unsuccessful counterattack. Russian forces repelled it and are attacking towards a Ukrainian stronghold near Andriivka.
DeepState Map Update: The map has been updated to reflect the Russian occupation of Petropavlivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Solone, and Novoivanivka.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances near Novaya Sorochina.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces and the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost more than 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 218 infantry fighting vehicles, 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,517 armored fighting vehicles, 1,435 vehicles, 348 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 90 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other materiel, including 15 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.
Russian forces are actively assaulting Pohrebky and Makhnovka, with reports indicating they have captured approximately half of Pohrebky.
Russian forces have reportedly captured most of Russkoye Porechnoye and are attacking Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Media reports of battles for Sudzha are deemed inaccurate, with Russian forces instead attacking towards Zamostya.
Ukrainian forces are reportedly amassing reserves in the Sumy region.
DeepState Map Update: The map has been updated to reflect adjustments to the contact line in the Kursk region and advances near Leonidovo and Oleksandriya.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. The DeepState map has been updated to reflect Russian advances in Dvorichna.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.
Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.
A drone was detected in Debaltsevo heading towards Krasny Luch.
Footage from the 144th division of the 20th army of the "West" group reportedly shows an assault near Terny in the Svatove direction. The assault, supported by drones, resulted in the destruction of enemy forces in close-quarters combat. Drone drops prevented Ukrainian forces from retaliating or moving freely.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions.
New Drone Technology: ISW reports that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
The UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 FPV drones.
Reports of drone attacks in Voronezh, with several drones shot down.
Reports indicate drone movements towards Romny and Lypova Dolyna in Sumy Oblast.
A drone is reported to be west of Zhytomyr, heading west/southwest.
New drones are reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district heading towards Kherson Oblast, another over Dolynska heading south, and one circling over Samara.
One drone is reported to be north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west, and another approaching Kremenchuk.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
The Ukrainian Air Force, stating that there is a threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the north-eastern direction.
Five drones are reported to be moving from Zaporizhzhia Oblast towards Marhanets, while two more are located at the intersection of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, heading north. Four drones are reported to be moving through Shostka towards Chernihiv Oblast.
Ukrainian operators successfully deployed drones in an unspecified operation.
Ukrainian forces acknowledge receipt of a Mavic 3 Pro drone.
Four drones are reported to be heading towards or through Zaporizhzhia.
Drones are reported moving towards Kamianske from the south.
Seven drones are reportedly moving towards or through Kamianske, with two near Pavlohrad heading west, two moving from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast towards Lozova in Kharkiv Oblast, one approaching Nikopol, and four moving from Sumy Oblast to Chernihiv Oblast.
Drones are reported to be east and west of Dnipro.
There is a threat of drone use in Kharkiv and Poltava Oblasts.
Kherson Oblast is under threat of drone attacks.
Kyiv Oblast is under threat of drone attacks.
Two drones are reported to be moving towards or through Myrhorod.
Eight drones are reported to be circling at the intersection of Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts.
Two drones are reported to be in the north of Chernihiv Oblast, with a western course.
One drone is reported to be moving from Sumy Oblast into Chernihiv Oblast.
Two drones are reported on the intersection of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, with a course towards Dnipro (city). One drone is approaching Brovary. One drone is flying from the Beryslav district towards Snihurivka. Two drones are flying towards/through Myrhorod. Mykolaiv Oblast is under threat of drone attacks.
Air defense is operating in Vyshhorod.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting before February 23rd.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon. Zelensky announced that Ukraine will receive $2 billion in additional aid packages following the "Ramstein" meeting.
Zelensky indicates a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
A TASS representative from the entourage of the next American leader said that Trump's transition team believes it is possible for Russia and the United States to reach a major security deal after the upcoming change of power in Washington.
The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU.
Leaders of the "Ramstein" Contact Group on Ukraine's defense are reportedly set to approve "roadmaps" for each of the eight areas of cooperation, outlining strategic goals and key military aid needs until at least the end of 2027.
Hungary will block Ukraine's intention to join the EU due to the termination of Russian gas and oil transit.
During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius. 48 missiles are involved.
As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
There is information that Russia is blackmailing Armenia with energy and food prices, as well as a 70-80% reduction in exports if Armenia withdraws from the CSTO.
Trump's team is reportedly reviewing its approach to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that he does not know whether the meetings of the Western contact group coordinating arms supplies to Kyiv will continue under Trump.
The next Ramstein meeting may take place as early as February.
Canada has allocated more than $300 million for military assistance to Ukraine.
The Netherlands will soon provide assistance that will significantly strengthen Ukraine's air defense.
According to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, 34 countries have agreed on a plan of action for the next three years as part of the "Ramstein" meeting.
Poland will reportedly not arrest Netanyahu despite an ICC warrant if he attends the Auschwitz liberation anniversary.
Many Russian elites are reportedly disappointed that the war with Ukraine did not end in 2024, with fatigue setting in. They are also feeling the increasing impact of sanctions.
The European Aviation Safety Agency has tightened recommendations for using Russian airspace, advising against flights "at all levels" west of the 60th meridian east longitude.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov stated that initiatives regarding a peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine are being well-received by partners.
Zelensky confirmed that the next "Ramstein" meeting will be in February, with all parties having agreed.
Zelensky stated that partners have guaranteed 19 additional air defense systems for Ukraine, with some already confirmed and supported. Work is underway to expedite their delivery.
UK Prime Minister Sunak will reportedly visit Ukraine to discuss, among other things, the issue of peacekeepers, according to Zelensky.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that today's "Ramstein" meeting has resulted in $2 billion in additional aid packages for Ukraine.
Head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen is reportedly trying to arrange a meeting with Donald Trump before his inauguration on January 20, according to Bloomberg.
Russian electronic warfare systems suppressed several more UAVs in the suburbs of Voronezh. One enterprise and one private household were damaged. There were no casualties, according to the governor of the region.
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that today's "Ramstein" meeting has resulted in $2 billion in additional aid packages for Ukraine.
Russia is considering the start of discussions in Armenia regarding a legislative initiative to join the EU as a sign of Armenia's departure from the EAEU, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk.
The number of missing persons in the Kursk region reported by Moskalkova is disputed by Moskalkova's own list, suggesting the number may be higher than 517.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is especially critical, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and making advances in the Sudzha area.

The new messages bring several important updates:

Donetsk Region: Russian forces continue to advance in the Donetsk region, with new gains reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. The DeepState map update confirms the Russian occupation of Petropavlivka, Vozdvyzhenka, Solone, and Novoivanivka. Battles are ongoing across the Dnipropetrovsk direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Further south, Russian units are attacking near Sribne - Novoandriivka - Yaseneve, with an assault underway in Yaseneve.
Kursk Region: The DeepState map update reflects adjustments to the contact line in the Kursk region and advances near Leonidovo and Oleksandriya.
Luhansk Region: A drone was detected in Debaltsevo heading towards Krasny Luch.
Kharkiv Region: The DeepState map update reflects Russian advances in Dvorichna.
Drone Warfare: Extensive drone activity continues, with new reports of drone movements across multiple regions and air defense systems engaging them. Notably, Mykolaiv and Kyiv Oblasts are under threat of drone attacks, and air defense is operating in Vyshhorod.
Geopolitical Developments: Zelensky confirmed that today's "Ramstein" meeting resulted in $2 billion in additional aid packages for Ukraine. Partners have guaranteed 19 additional air defense systems for Ukraine.
Mobilization Discussion: A video featuring a discussion with the ex-Minister of Defense of Britain suggests that Ukraine should mobilize all men from 18 years old to increase personnel strength. The speaker proposes that Europe could train these soldiers, who would then form a reserve force.

The overall situation remains fluid and highly dynamic, with significant military, political, and diplomatic developments occurring rapidly. The increased drone warfare, continued international support for Ukraine, and potential shifts in US policy will likely shape the course of the conflict in the coming weeks and months. The discussion about mobilization in Ukraine highlights the ongoing challenges in terms of personnel and the potential need for increased manpower to counter Russian advances.

Situation Report