Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

(January 9, 2025, 20:33 UTC)

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces maintain offensive operations in Donetsk, achieving significant gains around Kurakhove (now fully captured), Toretsk (less than 15% under Ukrainian control), and Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, suffering heavy casualties. A renewed Russian offensive is gaining ground near Nikolaevka, Staraya Sorochina, and Sudzha. Drone warfare is intensifying, with both sides employing extensive drone operations for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline. The UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 FPV drones. Germany will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces fully control Kurakhove.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka.
• Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 144 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, particularly in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions.
• New: Ukrainian forces report that in the Donetsk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 192 times over the past day, 107 times in the Pokrovsk direction and 73 times in the Kurakhiv direction. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces have inflicted the following losses on the enemy: 156 killed and 291 wounded, 3 tanks destroyed, 5 armored combat vehicles, 3 artillery systems, 32 anti-aircraft guns, 5 vehicles, and 1 special vehicle.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances near Novaya Sorochina.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina.
• Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective.
• New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces and the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, have reportedly arrived in the region.
• Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
• New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
• New: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost more than 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 218 infantry fighting vehicles, 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,517 armored fighting vehicles, 1,435 vehicles, 348 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 90 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other materiel, including 15 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• New: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
• New: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
• New: The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka.
• New: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.
• New: Russian forces are advancing near Makeevka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions.
• New Drone Technology: ISW reports that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare.
• New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
• Air Defense Engagements: 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
• New: The UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 FPV drones.
• New: Reports of drone attacks in Voronezh, with several drones shot down.
• New: Reports indicate drone movements towards Romny and Lypova Dolyna in Sumy Oblast.
• New: A drone is reported to be west of Zhytomyr, heading west/southwest.
• New: New drones are reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk.
• New: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• New: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district heading towards Kherson Oblast, another over Dolynska heading south, and one circling over Samara.
• New: One drone is reported to be north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast heading west, and another approaching Kremenchuk.
• New: Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
• New: The Ukrainian Air Force, stating that there is a threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the north-eastern direction.

Geopolitical Developments

• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting before February 23rd.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon.
• New: Zelensky indicates a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
• New: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
• New: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
• New: A TASS representative from the entourage of the next American leader said that Trump's transition team believes it is possible for Russia and the United States to reach a major security deal after the upcoming change of power in Washington.
• New: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU.
• New: Leaders of the "Ramstein" Contact Group on Ukraine's defense are reportedly set to approve "roadmaps" for each of the eight areas of cooperation, outlining strategic goals and key military aid needs until at least the end of 2027.
• New: Hungary will block Ukraine's intention to join the EU due to the termination of Russian gas and oil transit.
• New: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
• New: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius. 48 missiles are involved.
• New: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
• New: There is information that Russia is blackmailing Armenia with energy and food prices, as well as a 70-80% reduction in exports if Armenia withdraws from the CSTO.
• New: Trump's team is reportedly reviewing its approach to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, according to the Financial Times.
• New: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated that he does not know whether the meetings of the Western contact group coordinating arms supplies to Kyiv will continue under Trump.
• New: The next Ramstein meeting may take place as early as February.
• New: Canada has allocated more than $300 million for military assistance to Ukraine.
• New: The Netherlands will soon provide assistance that will significantly strengthen Ukraine's air defense.
• New: According to the Ukrainian Minister of Defense, 34 countries have agreed on a plan of action for the next three years as part of the "Ramstein" meeting.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk, achieving significant gains, notably the capture of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and making advances in the Sudzha area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, and Ukrainian forces are actively using drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes.

The new messages bring several important updates:

1. Drone Warfare Escalation: The announcement by UK Defense Minister John Healey that the UK, together with NATO allies, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 FPV drones is a significant development. This massive influx of drones will likely escalate the already intense drone warfare on the frontlines, giving Ukrainian forces a substantial boost in their reconnaissance and strike capabilities.
2. Continued International Support: Germany's commitment to transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems to Ukraine further demonstrates the ongoing military support from European allies. The provision of 48 missiles will bolster Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
3. Diplomatic and Political Developments: Zelensky's meeting with Italian Prime Minister Meloni signifies continued diplomatic efforts to secure international support for Ukraine. The Ukrainian Parliament's approval of a bill on basic military training indicates efforts to streamline mobilization.
4. Armenia-Russia Tensions: The report that Russia is blackmailing Armenia highlights the growing tensions between the two countries.
5. Potential Shifts in US Policy: The Financial Times report that Trump's team is reviewing its approach to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine suggests a possible shift in US policy following the upcoming election.
6. POW Video: The video of captured Ukrainian soldiers from the 61st Brigade provides insights into the situation on the Kursk front, indicating poor morale and logistical issues among Ukrainian forces.
7. Disinformation: The claim by Russian sources that 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are encircled in the Kursk region is likely disinformation, as Ukrainian sources deny this claim.
8. Missing Persons in Kursk: The report of 517 missing persons in the Kursk region is a significant development.
9. Alleged Indoctrination of Children: The video showing the alleged indoctrination of children into military training by Russian forces is deeply concerning.
10. "Iskander-K" Missile Attack on Kryvyi Rih: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the enemy attacked the city of Kryvyi Rih with three "Iskander-K" ground-based cruise missiles at 2:10 PM on January 9, 2025. All three missiles were shot down by units of the Air Command "East" of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
11. Drone Attacks on Russian Territory: Overnight drone attacks on Russian territory: 11 enemy drones were shot down over Saratov overnight, 4 over Kursk and Rostov, 3 over Belgorod and Bryansk, 2 over Krasnodar, 1 over Volgograd, and 4 over the Azov Sea.
12. "Ramstein" Meeting Outcomes: The Ukrainian Minister of Defense reports that 34 countries have agreed on a plan of action for the next three years as part of the "Ramstein" meeting. This includes the number of brigades, equipment, aircraft, and funding needed for the Ukrainian military. The schedule for these roadmaps was also agreed upon, outlining what will be done in 2025, 2026, and 2027.

The overall situation remains fluid and highly dynamic, with significant military, political, and diplomatic developments occurring rapidly. The increased drone warfare, continued international support for Ukraine, and potential shifts in US policy will likely shape the course of the conflict in the coming weeks and months.