Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 9, 2025, 09:33 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces continue their offensive in Donetsk, capturing Kurakhove (Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant) and largely controlling Toretsk (less than 15% under Ukrainian control). They are also making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and along the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. In the Kursk region, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, suffering heavy casualties (estimated up to 48,000). Russian forces have regained territory, including Makhnovka, Leonidovo, and Russkoye Porechnoye, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread use by both sides and reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, making them resistant to electronic warfare. The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian forces reportedly captured 11 Russian soldiers during mop-up operations in a multi-story building in Kurakhove.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. They are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. Video evidence shows the destruction of enemy defenses by the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group near Pokrovsk. Video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 506th Regiment of the "Center" group conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have reportedly captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka. Russian forces have reportedly broken through Ukrainian defenses near Ivanovka and are engaged in battles for the dominant height near Kolodezi.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction, with reports of progress near Udalny, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Zelene, Lysovka, and Mirolyubovka. Fighting continues in these areas, with Russian forces reportedly capturing parts of Baranovka and advancing towards Vodyane Druhe.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 192 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, particularly in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. Fighting continues near Velyka Novosilka, Dachne, Ulakly-Konstantinopol-Razliv area, Andreyevka, Petropavlivka, and Shevchenko.
Aftermath of Attack on Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 113, with 10 in serious condition. 13 people were killed in the attack. The new messages confirm the continuation of attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of one person killed and six wounded. The attacks seem to be primarily targeting civilian infrastructure.
Stepnohirsk: 2 people were killed and 2 injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk.
New: Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian infantry with drone attacks in the western part of Kurakhove.
New: Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation reported in the Donetsk region, indicating continued and potentially intensified air attacks.
New: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area, approximately 1.5 km from the line of contact. This highlights the continued use of loitering munitions to target Ukrainian armor and the ongoing fighting in the area. The accompanying map suggests a significant concentration of forces near Chasiv Yar, indicating a possible major engagement or offensive operation.
New: Video footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
New: Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that in the Donetsk direction, the enemy attacked Ukrainian positions 192 times over the past day, 107 times in the Pokrovsk direction and 73 times in the Kurakhiv direction. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing. Ukrainian forces have inflicted the following losses on the enemy: 156 killed and 291 wounded, 3 tanks destroyed, 5 armored combat vehicles, 3 artillery systems, 32 anti-aircraft guns, 5 vehicles, and 1 special vehicle.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group. This provides further evidence of the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" reports repelling a massive Russian assault in the Kursk region, involving about 50 units of equipment, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and even buggies. The attacks were carried out in 6 waves. Ukrainian forces, along with adjacent units, reportedly destroyed a significant amount of enemy equipment and inflicted heavy casualties, with 45 Russian soldiers killed and 53 wounded.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances reported near Novaya Sorochina. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves. The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone. Fighting continues near Kotlyno, and Ukrainian forces are struggling to contain the Russian advance. The weather is reportedly hindering Russian progress more than Ukrainian defenses. Heavy losses on both sides in the Kursk region: Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances, but simultaneous Russian advances indicate a fluid situation. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered in the Kursk region after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka, Kursk region, captured by a Ukrainian drone. This incident highlights the presence of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside Russian forces and their potential disregard for civilian property rights.
New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces and the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
New: Russian channels report that the situation near Makhnovka is as follows: "Statements about the complete liberation of the settlement are premature. There are heavy oncoming battles. Moreover, the enemy understands that the loss of Makhnovka and Zamostya will greatly complicate the defense of Sudzha, therefore it is putting up fierce resistance, actively working with artillery, there are no escapes from positions. Nevertheless, our men are literally gnawing out every meter of land. There will be good news, let's be patient."
New: In the Kursk region, paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka. The situation remains tense, with ongoing battles and the use of heavy weaponry.
New: The Russian Ministry of Defense published a new video showing the destruction of Ukrainian military equipment in the Kursk region.
New: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
New: Russian forces have destroyed a German Leopard 2A6 tank in the Kursk region, according to "Colonelcassad".
Kharkiv Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
New: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya and penetrated the Ukrainian defense up to 1.5 km in some areas.
New: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka in the Kharkiv region, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River, according to DeepState.
New: DeepState denies reports of the occupation of Lozova in the Kharkiv region.
New: The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is reportedly engaging Russian forces on the outskirts of Kharkiv.
New: FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. AFU troops used this buggy to rotate personnel. Russian drone operators destroyed the enemy's vehicle by a precise strike.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River).
New: Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
New: Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
New: Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared. Images and videos depict a large fire and smoke plume at night in Engels, Saratov Oblast, Russia, allegedly caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. The target appears to be an industrial facility, possibly an oil depot.
New Drone Technology: ISW reports that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Drones are reported in the center of Poltava Oblast, moving northwest, and on the west of Sumy Oblast, moving southwest. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast. Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest; Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west; Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west; Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west; Drones on the border of Kirovohrad and Odesa regions, course - west. Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest. Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi. Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest. Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, with an eastern course. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest. Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd. Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny. Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. A drone is in the northeastern Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. Kyiv Oblast: Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl. Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is heading towards Chornobai.
Air Defense Engagements: 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
New: The threat of enemy attack drones has been deactivated across all regions, providing a temporary reprieve.
New: Ukrainian Air Force reports continued drone threats across multiple regions, with specific warnings for cities like Dnipro, Poltava, Kremenchuk, and Sumy. New reports indicate that enemy drones are entering the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia.
New: 340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
New: Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
New: Ukrainian forces successfully employed a drone to eliminate a single Russian soldier.
New: Ukrainian border guards reportedly struck a Russian drone launch site in Vovchansk using drones. The "Hart" brigade carried out the operation.
New: Overnight drone attacks on Russian territory: 11 enemy drones were shot down over Saratov overnight, 4 over Kursk and Rostov, 3 over Belgorod and Bryansk, 2 over Krasnodar, 1 over Volgograd, and 4 over the Azov Sea.
New: In Cherkasy region 5 drones were shot down, debris damaged the windows of a dozen houses, a shop and a car.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
New: Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
New: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
New: Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
New: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
New: Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
New: Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia and an attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region.
New: Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with new videos showing the fire at the oil depot in Engels from various perspectives. The videos confirm that the fire is still burning and that new explosions are occurring.
New: Ukrainian forces report that they used two kamikaze drones of the Darts type with 3 kg combined munitions and three FPV Babay-Heavy drones with 1.5 kg cumulative rounds to destroy a Russian cannon position in the Zaporizhzhia region.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force, stating that there is a threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the north-eastern direction.
New: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses. The warehouses are reportedly combined with the production facility of FKP "Kombinat "Kamensky", which has previously been attacked.
Geopolitical Developments
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Shifting Alliances: Potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg reflects strained relations.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine, highlighting escalating tensions between the US and China.
Trump's Statements: Trump has reiterated his claim that Russia's actions in Ukraine were a result of the perceived incompetence of the Biden administration. He also stated that he "understands Russia's feelings" regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership and emphasized that the conflict would end under his administration.
New: The US has imposed sanctions on Antal Rogán, the head of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office, according to RBC-Ukraine.
New: President Zelensky has signed a law creating a list of terrorist organizations in Ukraine, aimed at strengthening national security and counter-terrorism efforts, according to RBC-Ukraine.
New: Zelensky indicates a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
New: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
New: The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg has been officially closed.
New: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk.
New: An EU spokesperson urged respect for the sovereignty of countries after Trump's statements on Greenland. "This is also our diplomatic value and a key principle by which we work. This also applies to Denmark," said EU spokeswoman Anita Hipper. She also stated that the termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe is unacceptable and contradicts its intentions to join the European Union, said Peter Szijjártó.
New: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
New: The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. Germany claims that the US cannot simply take and change the borders of one of the EU countries by annexing Greenland to itself.
New: Amid statements from Trump about a possible takeover of Greenland, the Prime Minister of Greenland is scheduled to meet with the King of Denmark.
New: A TASS representative from the entourage of the next American leader said that Trump's transition team believes it is possible for Russia and the United States to reach a major security deal after the upcoming change of power in Washington.
New: The Armenian government has approved a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU.
New: Leaders of the "Ramstein" Contact Group on Ukraine's defense are reportedly set to approve "roadmaps" for each of the eight areas of cooperation, outlining strategic goals and key military aid needs until at least the end of 2027, according to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. These documents will form the basis for support and aid allocation in areas such as air defense, artillery, armored vehicles, drones, air forces, and maritime security.
Other Significant Developments
Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to thirty.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens.
New: Ukrainian MP Shevchenko will remain under arrest until March 7, 2025, without the right to post bail, following a decision by the Pechersk Court.
New: Rheinmetall IFV to be tested in Ukraine: The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.
New: At least 19 people killed in attack on Chad's presidential palace: Local authorities claim that 18 attackers and one security service employee were killed in an attack on the presidential palace in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad. The attackers are believed to be members of the "Boko Haram" jihadist group.
New: A former FBI informant on Biden has been sentenced to six years in prison.
New: During storms, Russia lost almost half of the barriers made of barges near the Crimean Bridge and is not trying to restore them. According to local channels, 18 barges remain near the bridge, while on November 8, 2024, 34 interconnected vessels were recorded on both sides of the navigable channel in the Kerch Strait.
New: Russian State Secretary Blinken reported that US intelligence had data that Putin was considering a nuclear strike scenario, but China likely restrained him.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
New: Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
New: "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
New: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported the prevention of a terrorist attack by Russian special services in the Kyiv region. Four individuals, including a 16-year-old teenager, were detained. They were allegedly preparing to detonate explosives at the entrance to a building housing a unit of the Defense Forces. The teenager was supposed to deliver the explosives, disguised in the uniform of a Ukrainian military. All suspects face life imprisonment with confiscation of property.
New: A mass failure in the operation of communication operators, banks, and Internet services has been reported in Russia.
New: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.
New: There are reports of US military personnel starting the construction of a military base in Kobani (Ayn al-Arab) in northern Syria.
New: New details have emerged about the attack on the Ust-Luga terminal, carried out by SBU drones. The drones reportedly traveled over 900 km and successfully hit their target, causing significant damage to gas condensate tanks.
New: A naval ship belonging to the Swedish Navy reportedly discovered the anchor of the Eagle S vessel, suspected of damaging a cable between Finland and Estonia in the Gulf of Finland.
New: The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states.
New: A man and a woman have confessed in a Mannheim court to the murder of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, reportedly to kidnap a newborn baby.
New: The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers has registered a bill on affordable housing in Ukraine, regulating rental issues, introducing a 10-year ban on the sale of certain categories, and establishing a unified database of affordable housing.
New: Head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional State Administration, Serhiy Lysak, held a meeting with community leaders in Kryvyi Rih to discuss pressing issues, including road repairs, water supply, tariffs, and the construction of modular safe spaces for kindergartens and schools.
New: Ukraine has received the first batch of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles from Rheinmetall. The vehicles are currently being tested by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
New: New information about approximately 30,000 Ukrainians receiving the status of missing persons in 2024, which highlights the significant potential casualties or displacements from the armed conflict.
New: A video shows a drone-based attack targeting a Ukrainian soldier in an open field, further evidence of the increasing importance of drone warfare.
New: Six settlements in the Belgorod region were attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
New: The announcement that Rheinmetall will test its new Lynx IFV in Ukraine, potentially providing Ukrainian forces with advanced military technology. However, the lack of dynamic protection and additional screens on the Lynx IFV could limit its effectiveness in real combat conditions.
New: The political attacks by Trump and his son blaming Biden for the wildfires in California are likely aimed at influencing public opinion and should be seen in the context of the upcoming US elections.
New: The attack on the presidential palace in Chad, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, highlights the ongoing instability in other parts of the world.
New: The report of a man being defrauded of 1 million rubles in a phone scam underscores the importance of cybersecurity and public awareness of such schemes.
New: The reported heavy losses on both sides in the Kursk region and the destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Pokrovsk underscore the intensity of the fighting.
New: The Armenian government's approval of a draft law to begin the process of joining the EU marks a significant geopolitical shift, potentially further isolating Russia and strengthening Western influence in the region.
New: The threat from the US Treasury Secretary of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia in the conflict highlights the escalating tensions between the US and China and the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict in Ukraine.
New: The new messages also highlight a statement from Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, who claims that Ukraine's termination of Russian gas transit to Europe is unacceptable and contradicts its intentions to join the European Union.
New: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
Updated Recommendations
Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the advancing Russian forces. Prioritize the defense of the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a crucial supply route.
Strengthen Air Defenses: Given the increased activity of Russian tactical aviation and the continued threat of drone attacks, it is essential to bolster air defense capabilities across Ukraine, particularly in the frontline regions. Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to counter drones and aircraft. Enhance early warning systems to provide timely alerts of incoming threats. Specifically, address the new threat of fiber-optic-controlled drones.
Counter Russian Advances in Kursk: Despite the stalled counteroffensive, continue efforts to contain Russian advances in the Kursk region. Focus on disrupting Russian supply lines, targeting troop concentrations, and utilizing special operations forces for reconnaissance and targeted strikes. Leverage the successes of the 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" in repelling recent assaults.
Enhance Drone Warfare Capabilities: Continue to invest in the development and deployment of advanced drone systems for reconnaissance, targeting, and attack purposes. Explore countermeasures to Russian drone operations, including electronic warfare and anti-drone systems, with a particular focus on addressing the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Increase the supply of drones to Ukrainian units, building on the reported 19-fold increase in 2024.
Maintain International Support: Continue to engage with international partners to secure military and financial assistance. Emphasize the need for continued supplies of weapons, ammunition, and other essential equipment. Highlight the importance of maintaining sanctions on Russia and seeking additional measures to pressure the Russian government. Address potential shifts in US and European support, particularly in light of Trump's statements and potential policy changes.
Address Internal Tensions: Investigate and address reports of low morale and dissent within the Ukrainian military. Take steps to improve troop welfare, address grievances, and ensure effective leadership.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on the evolving geopolitical landscape, including potential shifts in international support, the entry of new actors into the conflict, and any diplomatic efforts that could impact the situation in Ukraine. Specifically, monitor the US's interest in Greenland and any potential implications for the Arctic region and the broader geopolitical balance. Monitor the potential meeting between Scholz and Putin and any potential agreements or shifts in German policy. Analyze the implications of the Armenian government's decision to begin the process of joining the EU.
Information Warfare: Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Russian losses and setbacks, while also showcasing Ukrainian successes and resilience. Address the reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine and maintain a unified public image.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the fluidity of the situation and the potential for further Russian advances, develop contingency plans for various scenarios, including the loss of key territories, increased civilian casualties, and the potential use of more destructive weapons. Prepare for the possibility of increased Russian aggression, including potential nuclear threats, as indicated by Blinken's report.
Seek Diplomatic Solutions: While maintaining a strong military posture, explore all possible avenues for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Engage in negotiations with Russia, either directly or through intermediaries, to seek a ceasefire and a potential long-term settlement. Consider Zelensky's indicated willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership as a potential point for negotiation.
Address Logistical Challenges: Given the reported destruction of Ukrainian equipment and the challenges in maintaining supply lines, prioritize efforts to secure and protect logistical routes. Explore alternative supply routes and consider the use of decentralized logistics to mitigate the risk of disruption.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence gathering efforts to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential targets, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available resources, including human intelligence, signals intelligence, and aerial reconnaissance.
Civilian Protection: Given the ongoing attacks on civilian areas, prioritize efforts to protect civilians from harm. Strengthen civil defense measures, provide early warnings of impending attacks, and evacuate civilians from high-risk areas when necessary. Address the rising number of missing persons and potential displacements.
Coordinate with Allies: Maintain close coordination with allies, particularly NATO members, to ensure a unified response to the conflict. Share intelligence, coordinate military operations, and seek joint diplomatic efforts to address the situation. Leverage the "Ramstein" format to secure long-term military aid commitments until at least 2027.
Long-Term Strategy: Develop a comprehensive long-term strategy for rebuilding and strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities. Focus on developing a modern and well-equipped military, enhancing cybersecurity, and addressing the root causes of the conflict to prevent future aggression. Consider the potential deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to
