Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine (January 9, 2025, 06:33 UTC)

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely difficult for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue their offensive in the Donetsk region, achieving significant gains, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy casualties reported. Russian forces have regained territory, including the recently liberated Makhnovka and Leonidovo. Intense fighting continues in the region, with Russian forces making advances in the Sudzha area. They have expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya in the Kharkiv region and penetrated the Ukrainian defense up to 1.5 km in some areas. The number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 113, with 10 in serious condition, and 13 confirmed fatalities. Two additional deaths and two wounded are reported in Stepnohirsk due to shelling. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory. Ukrainian NGOs are attempting to justify the counteroffensive in the Kursk region as a means to divert Russian forces from the Donetsk area. This narrative is likely intended for Western audiences and potentially to be used by Zelensky in his upcoming meeting with NATO generals. The fighting in the Kursk region has intensified, forcing the Russian command to expend all available resources, potentially necessitating reinforcements from other parts of the front.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Critical Situation: Russian forces are making significant advances.
- Toretsk: Ukrainian control is reduced to under 15%. Russian forces are consolidating positions and advancing along major streets.
- Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: Continued Russian advances near Kurakhove. Possible redeployment of Russian forces from Kurakhove to Myrnohrad, indicating a strategic shift towards Pokrovsk.
- Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne.
- Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation reported in the Donetsk region, indicating continued and potentially intensified air attacks.
- Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area, approximately 1.5 km from the line of contact. This highlights the continued use of loitering munitions to target Ukrainian armor and the ongoing fighting in the area. The accompanying map suggests a significant concentration of forces near Chasiv Yar, indicating a possible major engagement or offensive operation.
Western Kurakhove: Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian infantry with drone attacks in the western part of Kurakhove.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have reportedly broken through Ukrainian defenses near Ivanovka and are engaged in battles for the dominant height near Kolodezi, Donetsk People's Republic.
Aftermath of Attack on Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 113, with 10 in serious condition. 13 people were killed in the attack, which involved the use of FAB bombs on the city center. The attack caused damage to 3 civilian vehicles and civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia.
Stepnohirsk: 2 people were killed and 2 injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk.
Kurakhove: Ukrainian forces reportedly captured 11 Russian soldiers during mop-up operations in a multi-story building.

Kursk Region

Heavy Fighting: Intense fighting continues near Makhnovka & Sverdlikovo, with high casualties.
Stalled Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, but the ISW reports Russian advances, suggesting a shift in momentum. Ukrainian NGOs are reportedly explaining the actions of the Ukrainian command in the Kursk region as a means to draw Russian forces away from other areas, particularly the Donetsk People's Republic. They believe that within 5-10 days, the Russian Army will be forced to halt its actions in other sectors. The fighting in the Kursk region has intensified to the maximum, forcing the Russian command to expend all available resources. If this continues for another 5-10 days, the Russian command will need to quickly replenish its forces by deploying troops from other parts of the front.
Russian Consolidation: Video evidence suggests a weakening of Ukrainian defenses near Sverdlikovo.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces.
New Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the area between Guyevo and Kurilovka and the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
- Russian artillery destroyed a camouflaged Ukrainian Armed Forces gun in the border area of the Kursk region.
Battles in Progress: Fighting is ongoing in the vicinity of Staraya Sorochina, Makhnovka, and Bondarevka.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces and the 132nd Separate Reconnaissance Battalion, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advance South of Dvorechnaya: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya and penetrated the Ukrainian defense up to 1.5 km in some areas.

Other Areas

Krasnolimansky Direction: Fighting is reported near Ivanovka and Terny. Ukrainian forces are being pushed back in the areas of Nadiya, Kopanky, Novoiehorivka, Makiivka and Terny due to Russian assaults. Some Ukrainian positions have been destroyed.
West of Kurakhove: Russian forces have liberated Shevchenko and are expanding their control zone, leading to a worsening situation for Ukrainian forces in the "pocket" to the south. Fighting is ongoing for Dachnoye.
Velikonovoselkovskoye Direction: Russian forces have advanced along a forest belt northeast of Rovnopol and west of Neskuchnoye. Battles are ongoing in the direction of the Gulyaypole-Velikaya Novoselka highway and near Novy Komar.

Drone Warfare

Central Element: Remains central to the conflict, with extensive use by both sides.
New Threats: New drone threats identified across multiple regions.
Air Defenses: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. 15 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight over the Belgorod, Bryansk regions, and Krasnodar Territory.
- In Belgorod, the roof of an apartment building was damaged by falling debris from a downed drone.
- In the village of Krutoy Log, Belgorod region, a car, a house, and power lines were damaged by falling debris from a downed drone.
- In Bryansk, no damage or casualties were reported from the downed drone.
- In the Slavyansk district of Kuban, a private house was damaged by falling debris from a downed drone.
Fiber-Optic Control Systems: Discussion on procuring 200,000 fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China to counter electronic warfare. If successful, this could significantly enhance the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones.
The threat of enemy attack drones has been deactivated across all regions, providing a temporary reprieve.
ISW reports that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are resistant to electronic warfare. This poses a new challenge for Ukrainian defenses. A Ukrainian military spokesperson confirmed that these drones are not yet being used systematically but acknowledged their presence on the battlefield. They are slower and less maneuverable than other drones, making them more vulnerable to small arms fire.
Ukrainian Air Force reports continued drone threats across multiple regions, with specific warnings for cities like Dnipro, Poltava, Kremenchuk, and Sumy. New reports indicate that enemy drones are entering the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia.

Naval Activity

Black Sea and Azov Sea: No Russian ships are currently observed in either the Black Sea or the Azov Sea, according to both Ukrainian and Russian sources.
Mediterranean Sea: 7 Russian warships are present in the Mediterranean Sea, including 2 Kalibr missile carriers with a combined total of 22 missiles.
Kerch Strait: 12 ships transited the Kerch Strait towards the Black Sea, with 5 continuing towards the Bosporus Strait. 2 ships transited towards the Azov Sea, with none moving from the Bosporus Strait.

Geopolitical Landscape

Complex and Evolving: International support for Ukraine continues, but concerns remain regarding China's support for Russia and potential divisions among European nations.
Uncertainty Surrounding US Support: The Pentagon's statement about unspent aid for Ukraine underscores the uncertainty.
US Disaster Declaration: President Biden has declared a disaster in California due to wildfires.
Former FBI Informant Sentenced: A former FBI informant on Biden has been sentenced to six years in prison.
Greenland's Importance to US National Security: A future advisor to Trump, Congressman Mike Waltz, has stated that Greenland is of significant importance to US national security due to its critical minerals and natural resources. He also mentioned that China is attempting to gain influence in the region as the polar ice caps recede.
Finland-Russia border: The Finnish-Russian border will remain closed for the foreseeable future due to perceived threats from the Finnish government.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has expressed a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end.
Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Western countries' plan for Ukraine's military needs: Western countries are reportedly planning to divide Ukraine's military needs into categories and assign NATO member states responsibility for supplying each, according to a Pentagon representative.

Other Key Developments

Explosions: Reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
Russian Sniper Activity: Reported in the Polohy direction.
DeepState Map Update: Reflects Russian advances and adjustments to the contact line in Kursk.
"Vostok" Group Claims: Claims the destruction of six Ukrainian drone control points and inflicting heavy losses.
Allegations of Atrocities: In Selidovo by Ukrainian forces.
Arrest: Of an individual for allegedly preparing to sabotage the Trans-Siberian Railway.
Traffic restrictions lifted on the "Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Amursk" highway due to improved weather conditions, potentially facilitating logistics and troop movements in Russia's Far East.
Threat of ballistic weaponry from the north-east in regions with an air alarm. The threat has since been lifted.
TASS reports that Ukrainian forces are converting agricultural drones for military use near Volchansk, according to military expert Andrey Marochko. This indicates a continued effort by Ukraine to adapt civilian technology for military purposes.
President Biden canceled a trip to Italy due to wildfires in California, according to the White House. This is unrelated to the situation in Ukraine but could potentially impact diplomatic engagements related to international support.
Port of Berdyansk Attacked: A Ukrainian-controlled source reported a missile attack on the port of Berdyansk, with no reported casualties. The attack targeted an empty oil storage tank.
Air Defense Activity Over Belgorod: Air defense systems were active over Belgorod and the Belgorod region, reportedly shooting down several drones and causing damage to civilian homes.
Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region: Two drones attacked the village of Chayki, damaging power lines. Another drone detonated near a private residence in the village of Murom.
"Voluntary" Mobilization in Lviv: A video purportedly shows Ukrainian military commissariat officers attempting to forcibly mobilize a passerby in Lviv. The outcome of the incident is unknown.
Rating of Private Clinics in Russia: Private clinics in Russia will start receiving "stars" for the quality and safety of their services, similar to hotels. This is in response to a 15.5% increase in complaints about medical staff in the first nine months of the year.
Russian State Duma Considers Protecting Children from Destructive Content: The Russian State Duma may make a decision in January on protecting children from destructive content in video games, according to State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin. This follows complaints about violence and the promotion of "alien values" in video games.
Russian Officials Visit Bryansk Region: Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev and Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Dmitry Patrushev visited the Bryansk region on a working trip. They visited the village of Zhurinichi, Bryansk region, as an example of comprehensive rural development.
Kryvyi Rih: No shelling reported in the region. Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 5 enemy drones. The threat of missile and drone attacks remains.
Lyman Direction: Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions in the areas of Nadiya, Kopanky, Novoiehorivka, Makiivka, and Terny. Ukrainian fortifications in Bilohorivka were also attacked. Some Ukrainian positions were destroyed due to these attacks.
Approximately 30,000 Ukrainians received the status of missing persons in 2024: The figure of 30,000 people going missing indicates substantial potential casualties or displacements from the armed conflict.
Video shows a drone-based attack targeting a Ukrainian soldier in an open field: This is evidence of the increasing importance of drone warfare in the current conflict, with implications for tactical planning, personnel safety, and propaganda efforts.
The number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia increased to 113: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 113, with 10 in serious condition. 13 people were killed in the attack.
Finnish-Russian border to remain closed: The Finnish-Russian border will remain closed for the foreseeable future due to perceived threats from the Finnish government.
11 Ukrainian soldiers captured in Kurakhovo: Ukrainian forces reportedly captured 11 Russian soldiers during mop-up operations in a multi-story building in Kurakhovo.
Trump blames Biden for wildfires in California: Donald Trump and his son accused Biden of being responsible for the wildfires in California due to the aid provided to Ukraine.
At least 19 people killed in attack on Chad's presidential palace: Local authorities claim that 18 attackers and one security service employee were killed in an attack on the presidential palace in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad. The attackers are believed to be members of the "Boko Haram" jihadist group.
Man defrauded of 1 million rubles in phone scam: A man in the Vyazemsky district was defrauded of 1 million rubles after receiving a call from someone posing as a mobile operator and then from individuals posing as bank and law enforcement officials.
Overnight drone attacks on Ukraine: Russians attacked Ukraine with Shahed drones overnight. 11 drones were shot down in the Sumy region.
Rheinmetall IFV to be tested in Ukraine: The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.
Confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels: Images and videos depict a large fire and smoke plume at night in Engels, Saratov Oblast, Russia, allegedly caused by a Ukrainian drone attack. The target appears to be an industrial facility, possibly an oil depot.
Alleged atrocities in Selidovo: A video presents allegations of Ukrainian forces abusing civilians in Selidovo. This event carries significant propaganda value, fitting into a broader pattern of information warfare.
Heavy losses on both sides in the Kursk region: Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian tactical advances, but simultaneous Russian advances indicate a fluid situation. Russian sources claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days, with 14 Ukrainian soldiers captured near Berdin. Dozens of Ukrainian soldiers have been taken prisoner.
Russian tank destroys Ukrainian tank near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at a close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank successfully destroyed one Ukrainian tank, while the second retreated.
Overnight drone attacks on Russian territory: 11 enemy drones were shot down over Saratov overnight, 4 over Kursk and Rostov, 3 over Belgorod and Bryansk, 2 over Krasnodar, 1 over Volgograd, and 4 over the Azov Sea.
Russian military-affiliated channels emphasize camaraderie and resilience among troops: Messages from Russian military-affiliated channels emphasize camaraderie and resilience among troops, highlighting efforts to maintain morale during the Orthodox Christmas holiday.
Ukrainian forces destroy two enemy artillery pieces using drones: Ukrainian forces ("Shadow" unit) successfully identified and destroyed two enemy artillery pieces using drones, showcasing the effectiveness of drone-based reconnaissance and targeted strikes.
US Treasury Secretary threatens China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia: The US Treasury Secretary threatened China with "significant consequences" for aiding Russia in the conflict with Ukraine, highlighting escalating tensions between the US and China.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukraine. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have stalled, with Russian forces now pushing back and regaining territory. The new development of Russian forces expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya in the Kharkiv region adds another area of concern for Ukrainian defenses. Drone warfare remains a central feature, with the new development of Russian forces using fiber-optic-controlled drones posing a new challenge for Ukrainian defenses. The repeated launches of guided aerial bombs in Donetsk and the successful "Lancet" strike near Chasiv Yar further emphasize the intensity of the conflict in this region. The absence of Russian ships in the Black and Azov Seas, coupled with their presence in the Mediterranean, suggests a possible shift in naval strategy. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with continued international support for Ukraine but also growing concerns about its consistency and potential divisions among allies. The new updates regarding the use of converted agricultural drones by Ukrainian forces, the cancellation of Biden's trip to Italy, and the ongoing drone warfare developments further add to the complexity of the situation. The report of forced mobilization in Lviv raises concerns about the methods used to maintain troop numbers in Ukraine. The new information about Ukrainian NGOs attempting to justify the Kursk counteroffensive and the reported intensification of fighting in the region adds another layer to the strategic overview. The statement by a future Trump advisor on the importance of Greenland to US national security highlights the broader geopolitical context of the conflict. The increase in casualties in Zaporizhzhia and the new reports of casualties in Stepnohirsk underscore the human cost of the conflict and the continued targeting of civilian areas by Russian forces. The closure of the Finnish-Russian border further isolates Russia and adds to the geopolitical tensions. The confirmation of a massive drone attack on Saratov and Engels by the regional governor underscores the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian drone campaign. The detention of foreign mercenaries in Venezuela, including three allegedly from Ukraine, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation, although the direct link to the conflict in Ukraine remains unclear. The statement from the Ukrainian Navy regarding the absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas, and the presence of 7 warships in the Mediterranean, including 2 Kalibr missile carriers with a total of 22 missiles, indicates a possible shift in Russian naval strategy. The overnight downing of 32 Ukrainian drones over seven regions of the Russian Federation and the waters of the Sea of Azov by Russian air defense systems, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defense, further emphasizes the intensity of the drone warfare and the ongoing attempts by both sides to gain air superiority. The announcement that Rheinmetall will test its new Lynx IFV in Ukraine adds another dimension to the conflict, potentially providing Ukrainian forces with advanced military technology. However, the lack of dynamic protection and additional screens on the Lynx IFV could limit its effectiveness in real combat conditions. The new information about approximately 30,000 Ukrainians receiving the status of missing persons in 2024 highlights the significant potential casualties or displacements from the armed conflict. The video showing a drone-based attack targeting a Ukrainian soldier in an open field is further evidence of the increasing importance of drone warfare in the current conflict. The number of wounded in Zaporizhzhia increasing to 113 underscores the devastating impact of the recent attack. The announcement that the Finnish-Russian border will remain closed adds to the geopolitical tensions and further isolates Russia. The capture of 11 Ukrainian soldiers in Kurakhovo is a minor tactical victory for Ukrainian forces in the area. The political attacks by Trump and his son blaming Biden for the wildfires in California are likely aimed at influencing public opinion and should be seen in the context of the upcoming US elections. The attack on the presidential palace in Chad, while not directly related to the conflict in Ukraine, highlights the ongoing instability in other parts of the world. The report of a man being defrauded of 1 million rubles in a phone scam underscores the importance of cybersecurity and public awareness of such schemes. The overnight drone attacks on Ukraine and the downing of 11 drones in the Sumy region demonstrate the continued use of drones in the conflict. The announcement that a Rheinmetall IFV will be tested in Ukraine suggests that Ukrainian forces may soon have access to more advanced military technology. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, along with the alleged atrocities in Selidovo, further escalate the conflict and highlight the potential for wider consequences. The reported heavy losses on both sides in the Kursk region and the destruction of a Ukrainian tank near Pokrovsk underscore the intensity of the fighting. The overnight drone attacks on Russian territory and the downing of multiple drones demonstrate the ongoing drone warfare and the vulnerability of both sides to such attacks. The messages from Russian military-affiliated channels emphasizing camaraderie and resilience among troops are part of the ongoing information warfare and efforts to maintain morale. The successful destruction of two enemy artillery pieces by Ukrainian forces using drones showcases the effectiveness of drone-based reconnaissance and targeted strikes. Finally, the threat from the US Treasury Secretary of "significant consequences" for China if it aids Russia in the conflict highlights the escalating tensions between the US and China and the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict in Ukraine.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, and immediate action is needed to prevent its complete capture. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Investigate and address the reported forced mobilization in Lviv to ensure ethical and legal recruitment practices.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the reports of Russian troop movements and drone activity in Sumy Oblast, reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region.
Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Given the significant Russian advances around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk, prioritize efforts to halt their progress and stabilize the front lines.
Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: Explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border.
Prepare for Air Attacks: Given the declaration of air raid alerts and the threat of missile strikes, ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and ready to engage incoming threats.
Counter Russian Advances near Kurakhove: Deploy additional forces to the Kurakhove area to counter the Russian offensive and prevent further advances.
Maintain Air Superiority: Given the threat of guided aerial bombs in Sumy Oblast, maintain air superiority in the region and deploy air defense systems to counter potential attacks.
Monitor MiG-31K Activity: Track the movements of the detected MiG-31K and assess the potential threat posed by Kinzhal missiles.
Disrupt Russian Advances on Lyman: Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the area and conduct counterattacks to regain lost ground.
Maintain Public Morale: Address the concerns of the public regarding air raid alerts and potential attacks. Provide clear and timely information through official channels to maintain public morale and ensure cooperation with safety measures.
Assess Impact of Drone Attacks: Evaluate the impact of recent drone attacks on Russian territory, particularly the oil depot in Engels.
Enhance International Cooperation: Continue to engage with international partners to secure further military and financial assistance.
Strengthen Diplomatic Efforts: Respond to the statements made by the Hungarian Foreign Minister and reaffirm Ukraine's commitment to European integration.
Monitor Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding statements and actions by key figures such as Trump, Macron, and Scholz.
Address Internal Security Threats: Investigate reports of sabotage attempts on Ukrainian railway lines and take measures to enhance security around critical infrastructure.
Improve Troop Morale and Discipline: Address allegations of misconduct and abuse within the ranks of the Russian military.
Counter Information Warfare: Respond to any disinformation or propaganda efforts aimed at undermining Ukraine's position or creating internal divisions.
Assess Economic Impact: Evaluate the impact of the conflict on the economies of both Ukraine and Russia.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the continued fighting and the threat of further escalation, maintain a high level of readiness and prepare contingency plans for various scenarios.
Address Humanitarian Concerns: Continue to provide assistance to civilians affected by the conflict, particularly those displaced or living in areas under threat.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security in all communications and activities.
Monitor Troop Movements: Keep a close watch on troop movements and deployments on both sides of the conflict.
Enhance Cyber Security: Given the increasing use of technology in the conflict, strengthen cyber security measures to protect critical infrastructure and prevent cyber attacks.
Assess Environmental Impact: Monitor the environmental impact of the conflict, particularly in areas affected by industrial accidents or military strikes.
Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts.
Maintain Diplomatic Channels: Keep diplomatic channels open with all relevant parties, including international allies, neutral countries, and even adversaries.
Adapt to Evolving Threats: Continuously adapt to the evolving nature of the conflict, including new technologies, tactics, and strategies employed by both sides.
Address Reports of Violence and Abuse: Investigate reports of violence and abuse within the ranks of both Ukrainian and Russian forces.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain a high level of vigilance and deploy counter-drone measures as needed.
Investigate Alleged War Crimes: Conduct a thorough investigation into the alleged execution of three Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces near Neskuchne, Donetsk Oblast.
Counter Disinformation on Social Media: Respond to false or misleading information circulating on social media platforms, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine.
Monitor and Respond to Geopolitical Developments: Keep a close watch on statements and actions by key international figures.
Address Internal Russian Military Issues: Monitor reports of internal issues within the Russian military, such as poor living conditions and disciplinary problems.
Prepare for Potential Escalation in Kursk Region: Prepare for a potential escalation of the conflict in this area.
Respond to Statements from Russian Military-Industrial Complex: Address the reported statement from a Russian military-industrial complex leader claiming that the situation is the "beginning of the end" for the Russian military-industrial complex.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Strikes: Given the confirmed strike on the oil depot in Engels, continue to monitor for further drone attacks on critical infrastructure.
Address Reports of Prisoner Abuse: Investigate reports of prisoner abuse and mistreatment on both sides of the conflict.
Monitor and Respond to Cyber Attacks: Maintain a high level of vigilance and deploy countermeasures as needed.
Address Reports of Civilian Casualties: Investigate reports of civilian casualties resulting from military operations.
Monitor and Respond to Naval Activity: Maintain a high level of vigilance and deploy naval assets as needed.
Address Reports of Foreign Fighters: Investigate reports of foreign fighters operating in the conflict zone.
Monitor and Respond to Prisoner Exchanges: Continue to engage with Russian authorities to ensure the safe and timely return of Ukrainian soldiers.
Address Reports of Kidnappings and Scams: Investigate reports of kidnappings and scams targeting Ukrainian citizens.
Monitor and Respond to Propaganda Efforts: Respond to propaganda efforts by both sides of the conflict.
Address Reports of Equipment Shortages: Investigate reports of equipment shortages within the Russian military.
Monitor and Respond to Internal Russian Developments: Keep a close watch on internal developments within Russia.
Counter New Drone Technology: Develop and deploy countermeasures against the new fiber-optic-controlled drones used by Russian forces. Prioritize intelligence gathering on the capabilities and limitations of these drones to inform the development of effective counter-tactics.
Adapt to Use of Agricultural Drones: Given the report that Ukrainian forces are converting agricultural drones for military use, continue to explore innovative ways to adapt civilian technology for military purposes.
Assess Impact of Chasiv Yar Strike: Analyze the video and map of the "Lancet" strike near Chasiv Yar to determine its impact on Ukrainian forces in the area. Use this information to adjust operational plans and prioritize targets in the region.
Monitor Impact of Biden's Canceled Trip: While seemingly unrelated, assess any potential impact of Biden's canceled trip to Italy on diplomatic engagements related to international support for Ukraine.
Leverage ISW Reporting: Utilize the information provided by the ISW report on the use of fiber-optic-controlled drones to inform strategic and tactical decisions. Share this information with relevant units and allies to enhance awareness and preparedness.
Maintain Pressure in Donetsk: Despite the challenges posed by the new drone technology and continued Russian air attacks, maintain pressure on Russian forces in the Donetsk region. Continue to target their logistics, command and control, and force concentrations to disrupt their offensive operations.
Enhance Reconnaissance: Given the importance of drone warfare in the current conflict, enhance reconnaissance efforts to identify and track Russian drone activity, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones.
Strengthen Air Defense: Prioritize the deployment of air defense systems to areas under threat of guided aerial bombs and drone attacks, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Coordinate with International Partners: Share intelligence on the new drone technology with international partners and seek their assistance in developing and deploying effective countermeasures.
Adapt Training Programs: Adjust training programs for Ukrainian forces to address the challenges posed by the new drone technology.
Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities: Continue to exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian positions, particularly in areas where they have recently made advances.
Maintain Information Dominance: Continue to counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public and international community.
Monitor for Further Escalation: Remain vigilant for any signs of further escalation, particularly along the border regions and in areas where Russian forces are making advances.
Assess and Adapt to New Tactics: Continuously assess the evolving tactics employed by both sides, particularly in drone warfare, and adapt Ukrainian strategies and tactics accordingly.
Prioritize Civilian Protection: Given the ongoing conflict and the use of air attacks and drones, prioritize the protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering on Russian Capabilities: Focus intelligence-gathering efforts on understanding the capabilities and limitations of the new fiber-optic-controlled drones, as well as any other new technologies or tactics employed by Russian forces.
Develop Asymmetric Countermeasures: Given the technological advancements of Russian forces, invest in the development of asymmetric countermeasures that can exploit their vulnerabilities and level the playing field.
Strengthen Regional Defenses: Continue to strengthen defenses in regions bordering Russia, particularly in Sumy and Kursk Oblasts, to deter and counter any potential incursions or escalations.
Maintain Reserve Forces: Maintain a robust reserve force that can be rapidly deployed to reinforce threatened areas or exploit opportunities for counteroffensives.
Enhance Electronic Warfare Capabilities: Invest in the development and deployment of advanced electronic warfare capabilities to counter Russian drones and other electronic threats.
Foster International Collaboration: Continue to foster collaboration with international partners on intelligence sharing, technology development, and military assistance to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Adapt Logistics and Supply Chains: Given the ongoing threat to logistics and supply lines, adapt and diversify supply chains to ensure the continued flow of essential resources to Ukrainian forces.
Develop Counter-Offensive Plans: Develop and refine plans for potential counteroffensives to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian operations

Situation Report