Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of: January 8, 2025, 21:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely challenging for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial gains in the Donetsk region, with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been decisively repelled, resulting in substantial losses. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, with new reports indicating multiple drones in Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts. The city of Sumy is specifically warned about drones approaching from the northwest. Air raid alerts have been lifted in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. A new alert has also been issued regarding an enemy drone approaching Lubny in Poltava Oblast from the northeast. Ukrainian air defenses are preparing for a possible Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber attack tonight. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that an enemy drone is approaching Kharkiv from the northwest. Enemy drones have also been spotted on the south of the Sumy region, moving south/southwest/southeast. Drones are also observed in the center and north of the Chernihiv region, moving south/southwest. An enemy drone is also reported in the west of the Kharkiv region, moving east. A drone is also reported in the southwest of Dnipropetrovsk region, moving north. Finally, a drone is reported in the east of Poltava region, moving southeast.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signaling a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies, and now reports of Europe buying record amounts of Russian LNG highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns, including new oil spills in Crimea and the Black Sea, add another layer of complexity. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated that the EU will not allow Trump to "invade" Greenland, a territory of Denmark. The President of Mexico called on the US to return territories previously belonging to Mexico, following Trump's statements about Greenland.

Zelensky held a conversation with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, discussing the need to help Moldova overcome its energy crisis and prevent Russia from destabilizing the situation. He emphasized Ukraine's readiness to assist and the importance of maintaining stability for the Moldovan people.

The new messages add further details to the ongoing drone warfare, with reports of multiple drones in various regions and specific warnings for cities like Kharkiv, Poltava and Sumy. The Ukrainian Air Force provides updated information on the movement of enemy drones, indicating a coordinated effort to track and counter these threats. The repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation on Zaporizhzhia Oblast underscore the continued aerial threat faced by Ukrainian forces and civilian populations. The air raid alerts in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast have been lifted. The threat of attack drones has also been lifted across all regions, according to the Ukrainian Air Force.

A video from the "Operativnyi ZSU" channel shows a Ukrainian FPV drone successfully targeting a group of Russian soldiers riding motorcycles, highlighting the continued use of drones to target enemy personnel and vehicles. Reports of homeless residents of occupied Mariupol protesting the lack of housing and unfulfilled promises by the Russian-appointed administration highlight the ongoing humanitarian crisis in occupied territories. The multiple videos of residents expressing their grievances underscore the dire situation and the potential for growing discontent among the civilian population. The announcement of the date for new presidential elections in Romania adds another element to the regional political landscape.

The message from the "Dva Mayora" channel regarding a fundraising effort to support a combat brigade with drones highlights the continued reliance on crowdfunding to supplement military supplies. The specific request for Mavic 3T and Mavic 3Pro drones underscores the importance of these platforms for reconnaissance and combat operations. The mention of increased enemy activity and the lack of standard-issue drones in the unit suggests potential logistical challenges or gaps in the supply chain.

The message from the "Arkhangel Spetsnaza Z" channel regarding a fundraising effort for paratroopers in Kursk highlights the ongoing fighting in the region and the need for additional equipment. The mention of a friendly fire incident resulting in the loss of equipment underscores the risks and challenges faced by troops on the front lines. The request for Mavic 3, Mavic 3T drones, and antennas indicates the continued importance of these platforms for reconnaissance and combat operations.

The video from the "Operativnyi ZSU" channel showing a duel between a Russian soldier (or possibly a North Korean fighter) and a Ukrainian FPV drone highlights the ongoing use of drones to target individual enemy personnel. The soldier's unsuccessful attempt to counter the drone underscores the challenges of defending against these platforms. The video from the "Tsaplienko_Ukraine Fights" channel reporting the destruction of 5 enemy armored vehicles by Ukrainian Special Operations Forces in the Kursk region highlights the continued fighting in the area and the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in repelling Russian attacks. The mention of two tanks and three armored vehicles being hit by drone crews underscores the importance of drones in targeting enemy equipment.

The report from the "ASTRA" channel about a Russian soldier who attempted suicide after being pardoned by Putin and sent to fight in Ukraine highlights the potential morale issues within the Russian military. The soldier's history of multiple convictions and the brutal nature of his crime against an elderly woman raise questions about the recruitment practices and the types of individuals being sent to the front lines.

The announcement by the Danish Foreign Ministry regarding the possibility of Greenland separating from Denmark adds another layer to the complex geopolitical situation surrounding the Arctic region. This statement, coupled with the earlier reports of US interest in Greenland, underscores the strategic importance of the region and the potential for future territorial disputes. The reported attack on the presidential palace in N'Djamena, Chad, by "Boko Haram" militants, following the withdrawal of French troops, highlights the volatile security situation in the region. This development could potentially impact regional stability and draw in other international actors. The presence of the chief Chinese diplomat in N'Djamena amidst reports of a potential coup attempt, as highlighted by the "Rybar" channel, adds another layer to the complex geopolitical situation in Chad. The French media's focus on the coup attempt suggests a potential information operation aimed at shaping the narrative surrounding the events. The situation in Chad seems to have calmed down for now.

The Ukrainian Air Force's reports of drone threats in Kherson, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts, along with specific warnings for the cities of Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih, and Sloviansk, indicate continued aerial threats and the potential for further attacks. The reported destruction of an enemy drone over the Bryansk region by Russian air defenses highlights the ongoing efforts to counter these threats.

The message from the "Starshye Eddy" channel regarding the hasty allocation of new aid packages by the outgoing Biden administration suggests a potential strategy to lock in support for Ukraine and limit the ability of the incoming administration to alter the course of action. The mention of potential legal challenges and the need to prove the illegality of contracts underscores the complex political and legal landscape surrounding US aid to Ukraine. The reference to the potential impact on Trump's voter base, particularly workers in the defense industry, highlights the domestic political considerations at play.

The reported explosion in Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, as reported by the Ukrainian publication "Obschestvennoye. Novosti", indicates continued attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and industrial facilities. The suspension of work at the waste sorting complex in Engels due to the emergency regime, as reported by the Saratov branch of the company "Citymatic", highlights the potential impact of the conflict on civilian infrastructure and services within Russia. The message from the "Rybar" channel regarding the situation in Chad suggests a potential power vacuum following the withdrawal of French troops and highlights the conflicting narratives surrounding the reported unrest. The lack of a clear consensus on the nature of the events underscores the volatile and uncertain situation in the country.

The appointment of a new Ukrainian ambassador to Mozambique, as reported by "RBC-Ukraine", indicates Ukraine's continued diplomatic efforts to maintain and strengthen international relations. The previous ambassador's concurrent for Mozambique and South Africa suggests a potential shift in focus towards the African continent. The reported drone threats in Kherson Oblast, as reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, indicate continued aerial threats in the region. The specific mention of a drone approaching from the northeast of Kherson with a northerly course provides further details on the drone's trajectory.

The image and message from the "Operativnyi ZSU" channel regarding the importance of reporting aerial threats through the ePPO mobile app highlight the role of civilian participation in enhancing air defense capabilities. The call to action underscores the importance of collective efforts in protecting Ukrainian airspace and the potential impact of individual contributions. The video from the "Colonelcassad" channel showing the forced mobilization of a man in Rivne highlights the ongoing challenges of conscription and the potential for resistance among the civilian population. The man's desperate pleas for help and the onlookers' inaction underscore the difficult situation faced by those targeted for mobilization.

The video from President Zelensky's official channel, where he addresses the nation following the attack on Zaporizhzhia, highlights the ongoing human cost of the conflict and the deliberate targeting of civilians by Russian forces. Zelensky's call for increased pressure on Moscow, unity among Ukraine's partners, and a focus on strengthening air defenses underscores the urgency of the situation and the need for continued international support. His mention of specific diplomatic efforts, including meetings with leaders of Moldova, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, as well as discussions in the Ramstein format, demonstrates Ukraine's active engagement on the international stage.

The latest updates indicate a further intensification of drone warfare, with multiple reports of drone activity and specific warnings for various cities and regions. The Ukrainian Air Force continues to provide updates on the movement of enemy drones, highlighting the ongoing threat and the need for vigilance. The air alert in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast has been canceled. The reports of attacks on civilian infrastructure, including the deadly strike on Zaporizhzhia and the shelling of Kherson, underscore the devastating impact of the conflict on the civilian population. The continued fighting in the Kursk and Donetsk regions, along with the ongoing mobilization efforts and the humanitarian crisis in occupied territories, paint a grim picture of the situation on the ground.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex and fluid, with various actors pursuing their own interests and agendas. The potential for further escalation remains high, particularly in light of the continued drone attacks, the ongoing fighting on multiple fronts, and the uncertain political situation in several countries. The international community's response to these developments will be crucial in shaping the future course of the conflict.

The new information regarding Google's blocking of Russian state-controlled TV channels, the reported Russian advance in Donetsk, the updated drone activity, the situation in Chad, the claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense, the fundraising efforts for both Russian and Ukrainian forces, the incident at the US Capitol, the Ukrainian military report, the artillery strikes in Donetsk, the analysis of the situation in Spain, the drone strikes on Russian infantry, Biden's gaffe, and the fundraising for Ukrainian forces further adds to the complexity of the situation.

The blocking of Russian TV channels by Google represents a significant development in the information war, potentially limiting Russia's ability to spread propaganda within Europe. The reported Russian advance in Donetsk underscores the continued offensive pressure and the deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces in the region. The widespread drone activity highlights the persistent aerial threat and the importance of air defense capabilities.

The situation in Chad, with the ongoing counter-terrorism operation and the conflicting narratives surrounding the events, adds another layer of uncertainty to the regional security landscape. The claims from the Russian Ministry of Defense regarding Ukrainian losses and the seizing of advantageous lines should be viewed with caution, as they are likely part of Russia's information operations.

The fundraising efforts for both Russian and Ukrainian forces, as evidenced by the videos and messages from various channels, demonstrate the continued reliance on crowdfunding and the importance of external support in sustaining the war effort. The incident at the US Capitol, while not directly related to the conflict, highlights the potential for domestic unrest and security challenges within the US.

The Ukrainian military report provides a detailed overview of the fighting across multiple fronts, emphasizing the intensity of the conflict and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to resist Russian advances. The reported artillery strikes in Donetsk and the drone strikes on Russian infantry further underscore the active fighting in the region.

The analysis of the situation in Spain offers insights into the country's internal political and economic dynamics, as well as its foreign policy stance. The reported drone strikes on Russian infantry, along with the fundraising for Ukrainian forces, highlight the continued effectiveness of drone warfare and the importance of international support.

Biden's gaffe, while seemingly minor, could potentially be exploited by Russian media to undermine his credibility and portray him as unfit for office. The fundraising for Ukrainian forces, with the acquisition of 270 additional drones, demonstrates the ongoing efforts to enhance Ukraine's drone capabilities.

The new messages about drone movements near Dnipro and Poltava add to the already tense situation, indicating a continued and potentially escalating threat from Russian drone operations. The Ukrainian Air Force's warnings to residents of these cities underscore the seriousness of the situation and the need for vigilance. The involvement of drones in multiple regions suggests a coordinated effort by Russian forces to probe Ukrainian defenses and potentially target key infrastructure or military assets.

The reported calmness around the Russian embassy in Chad, despite the earlier reports of unrest and a potential coup attempt, suggests that the situation may have been contained or that the initial reports were exaggerated. However, the presence of the chief Chinese diplomat in N'Djamena and the conflicting narratives surrounding the events still point to a volatile and uncertain situation in the country.

The news of Tigran Keosayan's health crisis and the confirmation from Margarita Simonyan add a personal dimension to the ongoing information war. Keosayan's role as a prominent Russian propagandist and his connection to Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of RT, make this development relevant to the broader geopolitical context. While it is unlikely to have a direct impact on military operations, it could potentially affect the morale of Russian propagandists and their supporters.

The video showing Ukrainian soldiers crossing the border into Russia and discarding their military IDs adds another layer to the complex situation in the Kursk region. This development suggests potential desertions or defections from the Ukrainian military, which could have implications for morale and unit cohesion. The motivations behind these actions are unclear, but they could be related to the reported heavy losses suffered by Ukrainian forces in the region.

Overall, the situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable, with multiple actors and factors contributing to the complexity of the conflict. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the fighting and the potential for further escalation or de-escalation.