Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine

As of: Wednesday, January 8, 2025, 20:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains intensely dynamic, with Russian forces continuing to achieve notable gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The fall of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk underscore the mounting pressure on Ukrainian forces. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been decisively repelled, resulting in substantial losses estimated at 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare persists as a central element, with extensive activity across multiple oblasts, including new reports of drones in Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv oblasts, as well as a new guided bomb attack. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, having shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex. Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, coupled with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signal a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine, although the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th. The termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies, and Europe reportedly buying record amounts of Russian LNG highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns, including new oil spills in Crimea and the Black Sea, add another layer of complexity.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern part and reportedly conducting clean-up operations. Street fighting continues in Toretsk.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. They are also reporting advances near Shevchenko and Zelene Pole.
- Russian forces have liberated Dachenskoye, expanding their control south of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk).
- Russian forces are engaged in battles for Slavyanka.
- Fierce battles are ongoing near Uspenovka and Novovasylivka.
- Russian forces are attacking in Yelizavetovka and Baranovka, and in the direction of Tarasovka.
- Russian forces report advances in Toretsk, Zelene, Petropavlivka, near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, and Pishchane.
- The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk as one of Russia's key operational goals.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Ukrainian forces report almost 110 battles today, particularly in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment, including the reported destruction of 3 Leopard tanks and a British Challenger tank.
- Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
- Russian forces have liberated the village of Leonidovo.
- Russian forces have almost captured Makhnovka and Alexandria.
- Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky.
- Russian forces have entered Malaya Loknya.
- Russian forces report that the Sudzha border area (Berdin and surroundings) has been cleared.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked in the Kursk region to give a "gift" to Trump on his inauguration.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Ukrainian Units Identified: The Ukrainian units involved in the offensive are identified as the 95th, 92nd, 22nd, 82nd, and 225th Brigades.
Drone Attack on Kursk: Reports indicate a drone attack on Kursk, with claims of a "massive raid from several sides at once." Air defense systems were reportedly active.
Successful Tank Elimination: A Ukrainian tank was targeted and destroyed by a Russian Lancet loitering munition near Berdin.
Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region, with markings indicating it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldiers: 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade were captured by the Russian 30th Regiment in the Kursk region.
Alleged War Crimes: A civilian from a village in the Kursk region described how soldiers from western Ukraine burned houses in his village.
New: Reports that debris from a downed drone fell on a private residence in Belgorod, causing damage but no casualties.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces. Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are using drones to hunt and destroy enemy infantry and equipment in Donetsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Birds of Madyar" unit, used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
- Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
- Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
- A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Air raid alerts have been lifted in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
- Ukrainian air defenses reportedly shot down 7 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts are active in Kyiv and several other regions.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest. Two drones are reported to be heading towards Malyn, and two more towards Narodychi.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv. 1 drone is approaching Boryspil. 2 drones are flying from Poltava region to Cherkasy. Three drones are maneuvering near Chernobyl.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. Two drones are reported to be circling north of Chernihiv, and one is reported to be southwest of Chernihiv with a southeast trajectory. One drone is also reported to be circling near Pryluky. Two drones are heading towards Varva. A drone is in the center of Chernihiv Oblast, heading east. 1 drone north of Nizhyn, moving towards Chernihiv. 1 drone is heading via Konotop towards Sumy. 1 drone near Pryluky, moving northwest. A drone was detected in the western part of Chernihiv region, moving west. Another drone was detected in the southeastern part of Chernihiv region, moving west. City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. A drone is in the west of Zhytomyr Oblast, with a western/southwestern course. New drones were reported entering Sumy Oblast from Kursk. Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest. 1 drone is flying from Kirovohrad region to Vinnytsia.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Three drones are also reported to be near Lozova. A drone is in the west of Kharkiv Oblast, with a western course. The city of Kharkiv is warned about drones approaching from the southeast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara. A drone is in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with a western course. A drone is approaching Kremenchuk. A reconnaissance drone was detected north of Pavlograd.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. One drone was reported west of Kremenchuk, constantly changing course. A drone is in the northeast of Poltava Oblast, with a southwesterly course. Three drones are heading towards Pyriatyn, and one towards Lubny. Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. One drone is reported to be in the western part, moving south. 3 drones are in Pryluky area, heading southwest. 3 new drones are flying through Shostka area, heading southwest. One drone is heading towards Chornobai. Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast.
- Mykolaiv Oblast: 2 drones are flying through the Beryslav district in the direction of Snihurivka. A winged rocket has been reported in the direction of Mykolaiv.
New: A guided aerial bomb is reported in Mykolaiv Oblast, moving north/northeast. An enemy drone is approaching Chernihiv from the north.
Attack on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.
New Drone Threats: Reports of multiple drones in Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Kherson Oblasts, with some drones changing course. The city of Sumy is specifically warned about drones approaching from the northwest.
Drone Warfare Tactics: A video analysis reveals the use of modified consumer drones by Ukrainian forces for reconnaissance and targeted attacks. Reports indicate the use of "Baba Yaga" drones to launch attacks. The use of "Baba Yaga" drones to deliver RPG rounds is confirmed.
New: Ukrainian forces report that an FPV drone successfully targeted a group of Russian soldiers riding motorcycles.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited. He also hopes that Trump can end the war and provide strong security guarantees to Ukraine. Zelensky stated that elections in Ukraine could be held 90 days after the war's end.
- Zelensky stated that Ukraine would be open to a ceasefire if partners provided weapons to repel future Russian attacks.
- New: Zelensky held a conversation with Moldovan President Maia Sandu, discussing the need to help Moldova overcome its energy crisis and prevent Russia from destabilizing the situation. He emphasized Ukraine's readiness to assist and the importance of maintaining stability for the Moldovan people.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely. Macron also stated that Trump knows that the US has no chance of winning anything if Ukraine loses.
New: French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated that the EU will not allow Trump to "invade" Greenland, a territory of Denmark.
Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy. The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned a representative of the Russian embassy following statements about the energy crisis in Transnistria.
New: Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed his willingness to help Moldova with its energy crisis, particularly in Transnistria, stating that Russia is attempting to manipulate the situation.
BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen. This could potentially impact Canada's support for Ukraine.
Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.
- North Korea launched a ballistic missile that flew about 1,100 km and fell into the Sea of Japan.
Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office.
Hungarian Foreign Minister's Statement: Hungary has resumed the operation of its embassy in Syria.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23, potentially leading to a suspension of the Paris Charter for 10-20 years. A German Bundestag member, Roderich Kiesewetter, opposes this, believing it would be detrimental to Ukraine.
Potential Meeting Between Trump and Putin: Reports indicate a possible meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in March.
US Secretary of State's Assessment: US Secretary of State Blinken believes that the front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly in the near future and that any ceasefire would likely lead to Russia rearming and attacking again.
US Politics: Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, is reportedly planning to donate $1 million to Donald Trump's inauguration.
Ukraine-Israel Relations: The Biden administration intends to sell $8 billion worth of weapons to Israel.
Iran-Russia Cooperation Agreement: A comprehensive cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia will be signed on January 17th.
New: The President of Mexico called on the US to return territories previously belonging to Mexico, following Trump's statements about Greenland.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
New: The death toll from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 13, with 63 people injured. The number of injured from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 63, according to the National Police and the head of the regional military administration.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
- Two new oil spills have been reported in Crimea.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones. Video evidence also shows the destruction of another Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. A Russian Su-34 also struck Ukrainian infantry and equipment at a stronghold in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
Fire in Kirov Oblast: A criminal case has been opened following a fire in Kirov Oblast that resulted in multiple fatalities.
Internal Russian Political Developments: A scandal has emerged involving Russian deputies Fedorov and Matveychev.
Confiscation of Assets: Russian authorities have begun the confiscation of assets belonging to former minister Abyzov.
South Korean President's Arrest Warrant: The Anti-Corruption Investigation Department for Senior Officials is reportedly transferring an arrest warrant application for South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol to the police.
Increased Air Ticket Purchases: Russians have been increasingly purchasing air tickets to Japan, China, Vietnam, and South Korea in 2024.
Ukrainian Soldiers Trained in Britain: A group of Ukrainian soldiers from the 117th Brigade, trained in Britain, are reportedly preparing to enter the battle on the Pokrovsk direction.
Russian Drone Operators Strike Ukrainian Vehicles: Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
China's Satellite Technology: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
Satellite Image Analysis: The satellite image reveals a high-value area with a strategically important palace/complex, potential avenues of approach via roads, a key naval access point with the marina, and possible landing zones on the beaches and open field.
Ukrainian Naval Update: The Ukrainian Navy reports that one enemy warship, a "Kalibr" missile carrier, is present in the Black Sea, but no missile firings are reported. In the Sea of Azov, no enemy warships or missile carriers are present. In the Mediterranean Sea, seven enemy warships, including two "Kalibr" missile carriers, are present, with 22 missile firings reported.
Russian Military Operations in Kursk Region: Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov in the Kursk region.
Video Analysis of Russian Tank Operations: The video shows a Russian T-80 tank crew preparing for an offensive operation in a snowy, wooded environment.
Canadian Prime Minister's Potential Resignation: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party.
Russian strikes in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Nikopol region five times using artillery and a kamikaze drone.
Drone Warfare: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk: The ISW considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk as one of Russia's key operational goals.
Air Strikes: The 11th Guards Air Assault Army carried out air strikes on Ukrainian positions near Konstantinopol. Russian aviation conducted airstrikes in multiple locations.
Zaporizhzhia Oblast Attacks: Russian forces carried out 542 strikes on 12 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Artillery and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv Oblast: Russian forces continued their attacks on Kharkiv Oblast, using both artillery and drones.
Clashes: Clashes were reported along multiple axes, indicating ongoing fighting across a broad front.
Crimean Bridge: During storms, Russia lost almost half of the barriers made of barges near the Crimean Bridge.
Kerch Strait: More than 715 square kilometers of the Kerch Strait water area have been surveyed by the Ministry of Emergency Situations after the incident with tankers.
ATACMS Missiles: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that all 8 ATACMS missiles used for strikes on Russia were shot down.
Nuclear Strike Scenario: Russian State Secretary Blinken reported that US intelligence had data that Putin was considering a nuclear strike scenario, but China likely restrained him.
Hand-to-Hand Fight: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier winning a hand-to-hand fight against a Ukrainian soldier, who subsequently detonated a grenade, killing himself.
Drone with Shotgun: Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
"Phoenix" Unit: "Phoenix" unit of the "Revenge" brigade repelled an assault by occupiers near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area.
Attacks on Civilian Infrastructure: Continued attacks on civilian targets, including a bus in Kherson that resulted in 1 death and 9 injured (and later 1 death and 6 injured). This highlights the ongoing risk to civilians and the potential for deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure. Another bus attack resulted in 1 death and 9 injured.
Alleged War Crimes: Reports of the alleged execution of three Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces near Neskuchne, Donetsk Oblast.
Internal Russian Military Issues: A video showing a Russian soldier criticizing the quality of their body armor and describing poor living conditions, along with reports of soldiers being punished for disciplinary infractions, suggests potential morale and supply issues within the Russian military.
Statements from Russian Military-Industrial Complex: A reported statement from a Russian military-industrial complex leader claiming that the situation is the "beginning of the end" for the Russian military-industrial complex, and that Defense Minister Belousov is not accurately reporting the situation to Putin, suggests significant internal issues and potential problems with Russia's ability to sustain its war effort.
Europe Buys Record Amounts of Russian LNG: Europe is reportedly buying record amounts of liquefied natural gas from Russia, with volumes exceeding what Russia sold through Ukraine before January 1st.
Journalist Casualties: Several journalists were injured or killed in drone attacks, with reports of targeting to silence the press. The head of the DPR, Pushilin, called the killing of Izvestia journalist Alexander Martemyanov during a Ukrainian drone attack a "vile murder". Maria Zakharova, a Russian official, stated that those responsible for the attacks on Russian journalists would be punished.
Fundraising for Drones: Ongoing fundraising efforts to supply drones to both Ukrainian and Russian forces are reported. Ukrainian forces have reportedly purchased 270 additional drones.
Turkish Naval Developments: Turkey has commenced construction of an aircraft carrier, an air defense destroyer, and a submarine, potentially impacting the Black Sea naval balance.
Awards to Russian Airborne Units: Seven units of the Russian Airborne Forces have been awarded.
Restoration of Key Social Services in Ukraine: Access to key social services in Ukraine will be restored tomorrow after a Russian cyberattack.
Mobilization Death in Chernivtsi: Another death during mobilization in the Armed Forces of Ukraine occurred in Chernivtsi.
Polish Evacuation Plans: Poland is developing evacuation plans in case of natural disasters or military threats.
14-year-old Ukrainian Killed: A 14-year-old Ukrainian was reportedly killed by a bus in Warsaw.
Preliminary Agreements for Prisoner Exchanges: The Ukrainian ombudsman announced preliminary agreements with Russia for systematic prisoner exchanges in 2025, with a priority on returning seriously ill and wounded soldiers.
Kupiansk-Svatove Direction: In the Kupiansk-Svatove direction, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the liberation of Nadia, but no visual evidence has been provided. However, materials confirming Russian control over a section of territory in the Peschanoye-Berestovoye-Lozovaya triangle, west of Svatove, have been published. This advance appears to be the result of a series of attacks over the past two months, aimed at "cutting off" several bulges and leveling the front line between Kruglyakovka and Lozovaya.
Russian Advances near Kurakhovo: Russian forces have reportedly liberated Kurakhovo and advanced near Razliv.
Video of Ukrainian Soldier: A video from a Ukrainian soldier with the callsign "Jaguar" near Bolshoye Soldatskoye in the Kursk region shows him wounded but urging his comrades to fight on. He was later reported to be alive and in a hospital.
Drone Strike on Bus in Kherson: A Russian drone reportedly attacked a bus in Kherson, resulting in 1 death and 9 injured.
Drone Strike on Russian Vehicle: Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group.
Ukrainian Stryker in Kursk Region: A video shows a Ukrainian Stryker vehicle operating in the Kursk region, engaging Russian infantry.
Battles in the Kursk Region: The 34th Brigade is actively hunting Ukrainian infantry in the Kursk region.
New: Reports of homeless residents of occupied Mariupol protesting the lack of housing and unfulfilled promises by the Russian-appointed administration.
New: Reports that Romania is strengthening its air defense system with the purchase of Israeli ReDrone anti-drone systems and US Patriot missile systems.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely challenging for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial gains in the Donetsk region, with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been decisively repelled, resulting in substantial losses. Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signaling a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies, and now reports of Europe buying record amounts of Russian LNG highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns, including new oil spills in Crimea and the Black Sea, add another layer of complexity.

Recent updates indicate continued Russian advances in the Kursk region, with paratroopers pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and capturing Leonidovo. The reported destruction of a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya highlights Russian capabilities in targeting Ukrainian air defenses. The intensified fighting in the Kursk region signifies a broadening of the conflict zone. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic missile usage in areas where an air alert has been declared, as well as drone activity in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. The reported capture of a British Challenger tank in the Kursk region, if confirmed, would be a significant trophy for Russian forces. Ukrainian forces continue to demonstrate their ability to target and neutralize Russian air defenses, as evidenced by the destruction of a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system with a drone. The discussion around a potential ceasefire highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the conflict, with varying viewpoints on the strategic implications of such a move. Some see it as an opportunity for modernization and regrouping, while others view it as a dangerous concession that would allow the adversary to strengthen their position.

The new messages indicate that the international community should react to attacks on the ZNPP. The capture of a US Army M577 command post vehicle by Russian forces in the Kursk region, if confirmed, would be a significant development, indicating the presence of US-supplied equipment in the area and potentially providing valuable intelligence to Russian forces. The markings on the vehicle suggest it belonged to the 2nd Battalion, 69th Armor Regiment, part of the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division. This development could further escalate tensions and potentially draw the US and NATO more directly into the conflict. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape, as Canada has been a key supporter of Ukraine. The change in leadership could potentially impact the level of support provided to Ukraine, depending on the stance of the new Prime Minister.

Further updates include reports of rolling blackouts in Transnistria being extended to 8 hours per day due to the ongoing gas shortage. This highlights the growing energy crisis in the region following the termination of Russian gas supplies through Moldova. In the Kursk region, a destroyed military vehicle, possibly a tank, is shown in a snowy, wooded area, indicating continued fighting in the region. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office has launched an investigation into the alleged shooting of two Ukrainian POWs by Russian forces near Vremivka in the Donetsk region on January 3rd, 2025. This incident, along with continued attacks on civilian infrastructure, including a bus in Kherson that resulted in one death and six injuries, underscores the ongoing brutality of the conflict. The attack on the bus is particularly concerning, as it suggests a deliberate targeting of civilians or a reckless disregard for civilian casualties.

The arrival of a Swedish naval vessel in the Gulf of Finland to investigate a damaged cable further highlights the international dimension of the conflict and the potential for disruptions to critical infrastructure. The announcement of Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member signifies a potential shift in the global geopolitical landscape, with possible implications for the conflict in Ukraine. The announcement that a comprehensive cooperation agreement between Iran and Russia will be signed on January 17th is also significant, as it could lead to increased military and technical cooperation between the two countries, potentially impacting the balance of power in the conflict.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, the evolving geopolitical landscape, and now the potential capture of US military equipment contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage, humanitarian consequences, and economic ramifications, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements. The destruction of a bus in Kherson, resulting in civilian casualties, underscores the ongoing risks to civilians in the conflict zone. The international community's response to attacks on nuclear facilities will be crucial in the coming days and weeks. The new information about attacks on civilian infrastructure and the potential war crime of executing POWs further highlights the need for international intervention and accountability.

The new messages add information about a supposed recording from a military exercise showing artillery fire, specifically mentioning Arab fighters alongside Chechens. This adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting the involvement of foreign fighters. The capture of 13 Ukrainian soldiers from the 82nd Brigade by the Russian 30th Regiment in the Kursk region is also a significant development, as it provides further evidence of the intensity of the fighting in the area and the potential for intelligence gathering through the interrogation of POWs. The POWs' statements about being sent to the area with no information and little training, along with the Russian soldier's call for them to kill their leadership, highlight the potential for low morale and dissent within the Ukrainian ranks.

The report of a civilian from a village in the Kursk region describing how soldiers from western Ukraine burned houses in his village adds another layer of complexity to the conflict, highlighting the potential for war crimes and the targeting of civilian populations. The video of the interview with the civilian serves as a propaganda tool for Russian forces, aiming to demonize the Ukrainian military and justify their actions in the region. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau continues to be a topic of discussion, with various sources highlighting the potential impact on Canada's support for Ukraine. The image of Trudeau and Zelensky shaking hands is used to symbolize the strong alliance between the two countries and the potential for continued support, despite the change in leadership.

A video showing a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier near a landmine further demonstrates the effectiveness of drone warfare and the ongoing efforts by Ukrainian forces to target individual Russian soldiers. The announcement by the

Situation Report