Military Situation in Ukraine: Major Updates

As of January 8, 2025, 08:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is marked by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, where Russian forces have made significant advances. The capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk, with Ukrainian control reduced to less than 15%, are major concerns. Russian forces have also repelled a Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, inflicting heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple oblasts. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging Russian drones, having shot down 41 out of 64. Geopolitical complexities are increasing, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, coupled with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," suggesting a possible shift in approach. The US is preparing to announce a substantial final weapons package for Ukraine during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting, although they have indicated that not all military aid can be provided before January 20th.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, threatening the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian forces hold the western part, including a thermal power plant, but the situation is dire due to extensive building destruction.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Ukrainian control in Toretsk is under 15%, with Russian forces advancing and controlling the southern part, conducting clean-up operations. Reports indicate 90% of the city is now under Russian control. Video evidence shows drone strikes targeting Russian forces in the area.
Russian Advances: Gains are reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Attacks intensify on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, with progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces resist the Russian advance, reporting repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces target Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been repelled, with Ukrainian losses estimated at 48,000. A captured US Army M577 command post vehicle by Russian forces in the region, if confirmed, would be a significant development.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles. Battles are ongoing near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces report repelling over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away. FPV drones are used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
New Drone Attack on Engels, Saratov Region of Russia: A new drone attack is reported on Engels, Saratov region of Russia, with the governor acknowledging a downed drone and debris impacting an industrial facility. Reports indicate damage to a local oil depot in Engels and a massive drone attack on Saratov. Geolocation confirms the target as the "Kristall" federal state enterprise, which stores aviation fuel for the "Engels-2" airbase.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces actively engage hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
New Drone Activity:
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west.
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west.
- Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are moving from Kharkiv towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is in the Kryvyi Rih district, another is over Dolynska.
- Poltava Oblast: One drone is circling south of Poltava.
- Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky indicates willingness to limit potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expresses openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected soon, but the US indicates it will not be able to provide all aid before January 20th. A new substantial package is expected to be announced during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting. The US Congress is considering a resolution to recognize Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide.
Macron's Statement: Macron calls for "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting a quick solution in Ukraine is unlikely.
Trump's Statements on NATO and Ukraine: Trump has expressed his support for the view that Ukraine should not be a part of NATO, aligning with Russia's stance on the issue.
Trump's Plan to End the War: Trump has stated that he hopes to end the war in Ukraine within six months, a change from his previous claim of 24 hours.
Trudeau's Resignation: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has resigned.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing dolphin deaths.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia seeks new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year.
Rheinmetall IFV: Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.
Belarusian Military Presence: Belarus has reportedly increased its military presence near the Ukrainian border. Ground units have been deployed to the Stolin, Lelchytsky, Mozyr, and Gomel regions.
North Korean Missile Test: North Korea reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile. Kim Jong-un asserts that the new missile can overcome Western air defense systems.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely challenging, with Russian forces making substantial gains in the Donetsk region and repelling the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk. Drone warfare continues to be a central element, with widespread activity across multiple oblasts. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with potential shifts in approach suggested by statements from Zelensky and Macron.

New updates highlight the expected announcement of a substantial final US weapons package for Ukraine, the testing of a Rheinmetall IFV on Ukrainian soil, and intense enemy activity reported by the Southern Defense Forces of Ukraine. The capture of a US Army M577 command post vehicle by Russian forces in the Kursk region, if confirmed, would be a significant development.

The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau adds another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape. Allegations of misconduct within a Russian unit point to potential issues with discipline and morale.

Overall, the situation remains fluid, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum and Ukrainian forces facing mounting challenges. The increasing use of drones, the geographical expansion of the conflict, the evolving geopolitical landscape, and the potential capture of US military equipment contribute to the complexity of the situation. The conflict's broader impact, including long-term environmental damage, humanitarian consequences, and economic ramifications, continues to unfold alongside the intense military engagements.

Situation Report