Russian forces maintain offensive operations in the Donetsk region, particularly around Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Toretsk, with the latter two under significant Russian control.
Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are critically compromised, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control.
The capture of Kurakhove represents a substantial Russian gain, facilitating further advances towards Pokrovsk.
A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe losses, with Russian forces repelling Ukrainian counterattacks and regaining territory.
Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, employed extensively by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
A new drone attack is reported on Engels, Saratov region of Russia, with the governor acknowledging a downed drone and debris impacting an industrial facility. Reports indicate damage to a local oil depot in Engels and a massive drone attack on Saratov.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports 128 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with a focus on the Pokrovsk, Kurakhiv, and Kursk directions.
Belarus has reportedly increased its military presence near the Ukrainian border, with ground units deployed to the Stolin, Lelchytsky, Mozyr, and Gomel regions. This could signal a potential escalation or preparation for further military action, increasing pressure on Ukraine's northern border.
The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a threat of aerial attacks on the Donetsk region.
The new messages indicate that a Rheinmetall IFV will be tested on Ukrainian soil.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Toretsk Situation Critical: Ukrainian control in Toretsk is reduced to under 15%, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts.
Kurakhove Captured: Russian forces have completely captured Kurakhove, enabling further offensives towards Pokrovsk.
Intensified Attacks near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway, a crucial Ukrainian logistics artery, and making progress in Novovasylivka.
ISW Assessment: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers the encirclement of Pokrovsk a key Russian operational goal.
Russian forces are making gains near several settlements, including Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
In the Krasnoarmiisk direction (right flank), Russian units have advanced towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with ongoing battles for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Kursk Region
Ukrainian Offensive Stalled: The Ukrainian offensive faces strong resistance, with Russian forces reporting the repulsion of Ukrainian counterattacks and claiming to have inflicted heavy losses.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka and Leonidovo, which has been taken under Russian control. Russian forces report significant advances of several kilometers.
Heavy Losses: Both sides are suffering significant losses, with Ukrainian casualties estimated at 48,000.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya. Russian forces are making advances in Nikolaevo-Daryino and Russkoye Porechnoye.
Reports indicate that Russian forces have advanced in Makhnovka and are moving towards Zamostye.
Russian forces are pushing Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and Berdino.
British intelligence reports that Russian losses in December 2024 reached a new monthly maximum, with 48,670 soldiers killed or wounded. A record single-day loss of 2,200 Russian troops was reported on December 19.
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Ukrainian forces carried out a precision strike on a Russian command post in the Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Separate Marine Brigade in the Kursk region.
On the Kursk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled 27 attacks, with the enemy also conducting six airstrikes with 17 KABs and 146 artillery shellings, including six from multiple rocket launchers.
The "Archangel of Special Forces Z" reported that the situation in the Kursk region is stable, with enemy infantry attempting to gain positions in nearby forests and settlements.
Russian forces have captured Leonidovo.
Russian forces continue to push Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk region. The settlement of Makhnovka was liberated, and Russian troops advanced towards Zamostye, engaging enemy positions.
Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
Luhansk Region
Russian forces are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
They destroyed about 10 Ukrainian soldiers and entered a large stronghold west of Ivanovka.
Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks
Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare continues to be a major factor, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts, including Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
Ukrainian Successes: Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including the destruction of Russian drones and a command post.
Russian Drone Attacks: Russian drones are targeting multiple regions, including Chernihiv, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukrainian Air Defense: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of successful interceptions.
Air Force Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian drones in the Chernihiv region.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv.
New Drone Activity:
Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west.
Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west.
Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the northern and southern parts, moving west. A drone is reported on the northeast of Cherkasy Oblast, moving west/northwest. City of Pryluky (Chernihiv Oblast) is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the northeast.
Sumy Oblast: Two drones are heading towards Romny, and one towards Lypova Dolyna. Drones in the north of Sumy region, course - south-west;
Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are reported to be moving from Kharkiv Oblast towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district, and another is flying over Dolynska.
Poltava Oblast: One drone is reported to be circling south of Poltava. Drones in the west of Poltava region, course - west / southwest; Drones in the center of Chernihiv region, course - south / south-west; Drones in the east of Kyiv region, course - west / north-west;
Cherkasy Oblast: One drone was reported in the eastern part, constantly changing course. Enemy drone is moving in the direction of Cherkasy from the southeast. One drone north of Cherkasy, moving towards Kyiv Oblast. Two drones west of Poltava, moving northwest. Five drones near Konotop, moving southwest.
Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Reports of drone movements in Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv Oblasts.
340 additional drones have been procured by Ukrainian forces thanks to donations, bringing the total to 134,114 FPV drones. Overnight, Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over Cherkasy Oblast.
Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024, compared to the previous year.
Explosions were reported in Cherkasy and its outskirts.
Drone Warfare: A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Kursk Region Fighting: Geolocation of battles in the Kursk region has been established, indicating the areas where Ukrainian forces attacked.
Drone Activity in Sumy Oblast: Ukrainian air defense forces reportedly shot down 12 Shahed drones over Sumy Oblast during the night.
Drone Warfare: Overnight, 32 Ukrainian drones were shot down over seven regions of the Russian Federation and the waters of the Sea of Azov.
Drone Warfare: A new drone attack is reported on Engels, with reports suggesting the target is an oil depot. The governor of the Saratov region confirmed that an operational headquarters has been set up at the site of the fire in Engels. New reports confirm that drones attacked an oil depot in Engels, Saratov region, causing a fire. Geolocation confirms the target as the "Kristall" federal state enterprise, which stores aviation fuel for the "Engels-2" airbase.
Geopolitical Developments
Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has held numerous meetings, including with the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff, and the Foreign Intelligence Service, to discuss available aid packages, Ukraine's needs, and preparations for the upcoming Ramstein meeting. Additionally, he discussed details of Ukraine's work with the EU regarding the negotiation process for membership, emphasizing the importance of this year being result-oriented in these negotiations.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has officially supported the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, stating that it is an important operation to strengthen Kyiv's position before future negotiations with Moscow.
Reports from "Novinite" suggest that Putin may consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO under certain conditions, including the withdrawal of US military bases from Eastern Europe and the partial lifting of economic sanctions against Russia.
New US Military Aid Package: The Biden administration is set to announce a "substantial" final weapons package for Ukraine during the upcoming "Ramstein" meeting. The exact amount is unknown, but approximately $4 billion remains unspent, although the aid will not cover the entire remaining sum. It is suggested that "over a couple of billion dollars" may be left for the new Trump administration to provide to Ukraine, if they choose to do so.
Trump's Statements on Ukraine: Trump has reiterated his claim that Russia's actions in Ukraine were a result of the perceived incompetence of the Biden administration, particularly citing the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He also stated that he "understands Russia's feelings" regarding Ukraine's potential NATO membership and emphasized that the conflict would end under his administration.
Trump's Statements on NATO and Ukraine: Trump has expressed his support for the view that Ukraine should not be a part of NATO, aligning with Russia's stance on the issue.
Trump's Plan to End the War: Trump has stated that he hopes to end the war in Ukraine within six months, a change from his previous claim of 24 hours.
Rheinmetall IFV: The German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine. Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG, confirmed plans to start producing these IFVs in Ukraine. Currently, Lynx IFVs are manufactured in Hungary and are undergoing tests in Italy.
Other Significant Developments
Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
The Ukrainian Parliament is considering a bill on the deployment of Ukrainian Armed Forces to other states.
More than 100 Russian soldiers from occupied Crimea have been taken prisoner by Ukrainian forces.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Ukrainian Military App: The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is developing a military ID within the "Army+" app.
Two people were injured: Two people were injured after a drone attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region.
Poet and songwriter killed: Russian poet and songwriter Oleg Gegelsky was killed in the special operation zone at the age of 60.
Russian Military Claims: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have repelled a Ukrainian attack in the Kursk region, destroying 11 Ukrainian drones.
Updated Casualties in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 426 strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Updated Casualties in Kherson Oblast: Over the past day, Russian forces killed two civilians and wounded nine in Kherson Oblast.
During storms, Russia lost almost half of the barriers made of barges near the Crimean Bridge and is not trying to restore them.
According to local channels, 18 barges remain near the bridge, while on November 8, 2024, 34 interconnected vessels were recorded on both sides of the navigable channel in the Kerch Strait.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that all 8 ATACMS missiles used for strikes on Russia were shot down by S-400 and "Pantsir-SM" air defense systems.
Russian State Secretary Blinken reported that US intelligence had data that Putin was considering a nuclear strike scenario, but China likely restrained him.
In Melitopol and Tokmak, a missile alert has been issued.
Belarus has reportedly increased its military presence near the Ukrainian border. Ground units have been deployed to the Stolin, Lelchytsky, Mozyr, and Gomel regions. This could signal a potential escalation or preparation for further military action.
The Ukrainian Air Force has issued a threat of aerial attacks on the Donetsk region.
Propaganda and Public Image: A video of a 15-year-old Ukrainian girl criticizing Ukraine and praising Russia has gone viral, leading to a visit from the SBU and National Police. The girl subsequently apologized and expressed a desire to be a patriot like her mother.
The liberation of Berdin and Russkoe Porechnoye, as well as attacks by Russian forces, are reported.
A new report indicates that a Rheinmetall IFV will be tested on Ukrainian soil.
Over the past day, Russian forces carried out 426 strikes on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 2 airstrikes on Piatykhatky and Mala Tokmachka, 250 UAV attacks on various locations, 8 MLRS attacks on Lobkove, Novodanylivka, Malynivka, and Novodarivka, and 166 artillery strikes on various locations. Three reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure were received.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. Russian forces have made significant advances, capturing Kurakhove and solidifying their control in areas around Toretsk. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been stalled, with Russian forces now pushing back and regaining lost territory. The reported increase in Belarusian military presence along the Ukrainian border adds a new dimension of concern, potentially signaling a widening of the conflict or increased pressure on Ukraine's northern defenses. The threat of aerial attacks in the Donetsk region further emphasizes the volatile nature of the situation. Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance and offensive operations. The new information about the testing of a Rheinmetall IFV on Ukrainian soil indicates a potential boost to Ukrainian military capabilities, although the lack of dynamic protection and additional screens raises questions about its effectiveness in real combat conditions. The confirmation of a massive drone attack on Saratov and Engels by the regional governor underscores the scale and intensity of the Ukrainian drone campaign, demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The information war continues, with incidents like the viral video of the Ukrainian teenager highlighting the sensitivity surrounding public expressions of support for Russia. Overall, the situation is marked by intense fighting, significant casualties, and a complex geopolitical landscape with potential for further escalation. The coming days will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict.
